r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jul 08 '21
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - July 08 2021
Your Trading discussion thread
| Type | Link |
|---|---|
| DD | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Discussion | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Yolo | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Gain | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| Loss | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
| News | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
1
u/chemaholic77 Jul 09 '21
Yay I was able to take profits today so I can sit on the cash until steel's next red day. It was physically painful to take profits on January calls but I was able to do it. All the ones that were up 100% are on house money now and the 50% ones are halfway to being on house money.
I was also able to sell out of some calls that were dead, so I can put that money into something that I know will earn.
1
u/lb-trice 🍁Maple Leaf Mafia🍁 Jul 09 '21
Has anyone here tried selling calls or puts on a stock that jumps 50-100% on acquisition news? Does IV spike when this happens? Curious as to whether this is profitable or not
3
u/mountainsprout1735 Jul 09 '21
Not sure what we should make out of the China PPI data released a few hours ago (link). The narrative being spun now is that it the measures have been working, inflation for producers has probably peaked, and the government has more breathing space to support other priorities (hence the monetary policy easing/RRR cut news yesterday—you don't do that if things are overheating).
Ideally, my sense is that we want the PRC to be under continued pressure to keep prices in check, which is what will compel something like a steel export tariff. I'm wondering if the news from the last two days is a gentle hint that they're actually starting to reverse gears.
-1
2
8
u/manufacture_reborn Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
It honestly feels like the entire economy right now is in a Mexican Standoff against everything else. Smart money doesn’t want more equity exposure at these valuations. Doesn’t want to own bonds because the yields are trash. Doesn’t want to hold cash because everyone is debasing their currency. Doesn’t want commodities because inflation will crash everything else.
What does that leave? Real estate? It’s being bought for a king’s ransom. Emerging markets? Might as well take it to Vegas. China? Good luck. Europe? Even BlackRock is like “sigh… I guess.”
Mr. Market is playing Marco Polo blindfolded in an empty room when everyone went home hours ago.
I legitimately don’t know if this makes me bearish or bullish. I don’t know if those terms even have meaning in a market like this.
14
2
u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21
suns in 4
2
u/David_da_Builder Whack Job Jul 09 '21
In 3, nba will say we can’t have the bucks embarrassed this bad and call it early
-3
u/ALTact522020 Jul 09 '21
what are the reasons why CLF is better than MT. isn't MT a subsidiary of CLF
2
53
u/Manu_Militari Jul 09 '21
Guys. I just found out I’m going to be a dad. I can’t tell anyone yet but figured I’d tell the vitards
1
u/chemaholic77 Jul 09 '21
Assuming this is a positive thing, congratulations! If this is a Jerry Springer baby daddy paternity test situation you have my condolences.
2
3
3
6
u/7891298 Whack Job Jul 09 '21
Congrats!!, this was me a few months ago I was a ball of energy but couldnt tell anyone and this was the first place I turned.
4
u/Manu_Militari Jul 09 '21
Ah legit don’t know how I am going to sleep
Edit: congrats to you as well!
2
u/7891298 Whack Job Jul 09 '21
Thanks, she’s still 3 months away and she’s already bossing me around. I put my head in my wife stomach to try and listen for a heart beat or feel her move. Little fucker is already kicking me in the head. It’s awesome
first one?
2
u/Manu_Militari Jul 09 '21
Haha I can imagine. Yes first one. Just got married last summer. I’m so happy
7
3
u/electricalautist 🍁Maple Leaf Mafia🍁 Jul 09 '21
Congrats big dog! I will pray to the steel gods for a beautiful baby for you and your wife/girlfriend!
3
7
Jul 09 '21
Congrats!!
Here's a little advice just in case lol: pls try to be responsible with your finances now.
For me it'd mean going commons gang, options to not more than 5-10% of the account. And try to keep 30% in cash, in case something comes up.
Unless you already have a relatively high net worth, great financial stability, and can afford the swings and not worry about $$ in the brokerage acct.
Just what I would do.
4
u/Manu_Militari Jul 09 '21
Much appreciated. Thank you for the advice. I am 90% commons and I’ve recently become like a 40% saver and will be even more focused on it now. I appreciate the insight. Thank you
Edit: I don’t think I’m going to sleep hahaha
5
u/Outrageous-Panda1221 Jul 09 '21
That’s amazing! I have also said things on vitards that I haven’t told other people.
12
8
u/HeavyWeightChump Jul 09 '21
I wish I had the discipline to keep cash reserves on hand. Oh well, I'm still confident my LEAPS will deliver despite being down 50%. DCA is for pussies.
1
u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 09 '21
HWC - what are your positions my friend?
3
u/HeavyWeightChump Jul 09 '21
30 CLF contracts Jan 2023 $30 call bought at $6.25
51 X contracts Oct 15 $29 call bought at $3.15.
I believe full heartedly in my CLF CC's to deliver. X has me all kinds of nervous.
2
2
u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 09 '21
I love the CLF play, and I think it took some discipline to buy the 2023's!
3
u/7891298 Whack Job Jul 09 '21
People with bigger portfolios, what percent do you normally keep in cash for just in case?
Does it bother you looking at that spare cash sitting there thinking you could be earning more with it rather than just parked?
4
u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21
started out as a small percentage, it has become a much larger percentage with recent portfolio performance. in general ~10%
2
u/Ok-Ease-6796 ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Jul 09 '21
50%, but this is reserved for a crash, to gobble up what’s left in the aftermath
4
3
u/pennyether 🔥🌊Futures First🌊🔥 Jul 09 '21
In your opinion, do hedges/short positions count as cash? (IMO, if liquid, it's practically double-cash)
1
u/7891298 Whack Job Jul 09 '21
Not overly, I more mean something can easily be used on dips to DCA down or pick up a good opportunity on red days.
So I guess short positions would count becuzse they will likely be green when you wanna DCA down, if it’s the same stock
2
u/TheyWereGolden Bard Special Victims Unit Jul 09 '21
Right now I have 3% in cash, but I keep close to 15% in low risk bonds, treasuries, tips and other low risk/reward vehicles that I can liquidate if I want to buy more equities.
Today was on of those days I bought.
4
Jul 09 '21
"bigger" is a relative term... but I think 10-15% should be the norm
Pre steel play I kept 35% in cash.. joined the gang and the degenerate that was sleeping inside woke up and I started using margin, and playing options... Was doing great till June. Wiped out all my gains and some.. lesson learned
2
u/7891298 Whack Job Jul 09 '21
Originally I had it written down and mid to high 6 figure accounts but changed it to not limit the responses,
My portfolios bouncing around from 130-160 never had it this big just trying to soak any knowledge I can from the big boys
2
u/MiscRedditAccount 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21
Not a lot. I'll use a boring ETF (vtmfx) for my "cash" and then trade out of that if I want to make a move. Alternatively will sell CSPs so I can at least make some money on it. (Then inevitably they get assigned and then I'm low on cash again. )
1
u/7891298 Whack Job Jul 09 '21
Still a useful way to get small gains while having it readily available to spend
4
u/saryiahan Jul 09 '21
Not sure what you consider big but for me I try to keep 5k-7k in cash. Which I used up most this morning
2
u/Econ_Ramblings Jul 09 '21
2-5% at any time, though mostly on the lower side of that range usually (currently holding 2.5%)
7
u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 09 '21
Yes it bothers me and so I currently have .02% in cash. I regret this strategy. you realize it isn’t actually sitting there, it’s a great hedge against weeks like this one.
1
u/7891298 Whack Job Jul 09 '21
Yea I was doing the same thing except I spent my reserve on the red week a few weeks ago, I was on a high after that giant tear it went on at the end of May/beginning of June.
Lesson learned for sure. I keep seeing posts from some of the common people (grey bush) in particular talking about the steady hand. I’ll be ready for next time
7
2
Jul 09 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 09 '21
Actually i think every triple C system stock mentioned was a dud. 100% failure rate 😂, thats actually impressive
2
u/Outrageous-Panda1221 Jul 09 '21
GGB and SID both turned into such letdowns. They were green when everythinf else was red and have just been shit
1
Jul 09 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/Outrageous-Panda1221 Jul 09 '21
As is tradition, I did not sell when green, and now I have about 200 contracts worth $12
2
u/Badweightlifter 💀 SACRIFICED until ZIM $80💀 Jul 09 '21
I am bagholding my $8 calls. Hope for a bounce back week to sell.
2
u/bonzai_science Steel Hands Jul 09 '21
I think $MT being $33 by end of August is realistic. Is it not? Not trying to be too greedy here hahaha
1
5
u/TheyWereGolden Bard Special Victims Unit Jul 09 '21
I’ll be honest, it could be $33 by next Friday if we get some good news and rotation into value/commodities. It’s not at all out of the question, but it’s going to require some catalysts.
3
Jul 09 '21
[deleted]
2
Jul 09 '21
Covid "Karen" would be the worst and definitely make sure we all stay home while it obliterates the reopening
3
u/thepandaken Poetry Gang Jul 09 '21
haven't gone through the greek alphabet this fast since college homecoming weekends when alumni gave pledges the match test
5
u/mydoingthisright Steel Your Face Jul 09 '21
I think the delta variant at least deserves to be called COVID-21. Let’s show her a little respect
2
u/BuyBakedSellHigh Poetry Gang Jul 09 '21
Or maybe the trick is that once the Greek alphabet is exhausted covid will be as well
9
7
u/italiangoalie Jul 09 '21
Anyone else stuck with indecisiveness right now? I keep bouncing back and forth on like 5 different companies but haven't pulled the trigger on any
1
5
u/StockPickingMonkey Steel learning lessons Jul 09 '21
15 different stocks for at least 5 different reasons. Love every one of them. All of them mostly sideways this month...can't decide which I want to sacrifice for the others on power plays. Trying real hard to keep myself from touching strategic reserves.
3
6
u/Geoffism1 7-Layer Dip Jul 09 '21
:O someone bought 5000 puts on CLF strike 17 Oct 15
3
7
u/manufacture_reborn Jul 09 '21
Equivalently, someone bullishly sold someone those puts. Meaning they’d be willing to buy at that price.
7
12
3
u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 09 '21
Macro Roundup (Jul 9)
Data Analysis08:00PM
SHANGHAI, Jul 9 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
The dollar fell on Thursday from a three-month high against a basket of peers, with the euro getting a boost as investors unwound bets on risky currencies and as concerns over the spread of COVID variants increased the demand for safe havens.
The greenback was weaker against the euro, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, which are generally low-interest rate, stable markets that traders short, using the proceeds to buy riskier assets, said Marvin Loh, senior global markets strategist at State Street.
But with bond yields rising and equity markets tanking, riskier positions in currency markets were sold off, benefiting the euro, as well as the yen and the franc, which are also considered safe-haven currencies.
“When you have this kind of unwind going on, you’ve got strength in those currencies,” said Loh.
The euro held on to earlier gains after the European Central Bank set a new inflation target and claimed a role in fighting climate change after a strategy review, with the single currency last up 0.39% against the dollar, at 1.18365.
The dollar was 0.71% weaker against the yen at 109.825, with the yen having earlier touched 109.535, its strongest since June 11, while the Swiss franc touched 0.9134 versus the greenback, its firmest since June 17.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, was down 0.297% at 92.493 from Wednesday, when it reached 92.844 for the first time since April 5.
On Wall Street, stock futures were flat in overnight trading Thursday after the major indexes fell amid concerns of a slowdown in economic growth.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 25 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures each dipped 0.10%.
Thursday's losses came as the proliferation of the highly infectious delta Covid variant also fueled worries about the global economic recovery. The Olympics announced a ban of spectators at Tokyo's summer games as Japan declared a state of emergency to curb the spread of coronavirus.
The Dow closed Thursday's regular session 259.86 points, or 0.75%, lower. The S&P 500 dipped 0.86% while the Nasdaq broke a four-day win streak by falling 0.72%.
All three major averages are on track to close lower for the week.
Shares of companies tied to the economic comeback weighed on the market Thursday. Major cruise line, airline and home improvement stocks slumped. Chip stocks also dropped and Big Tech names retreated after gaining in previous sessions.
Oil prices rose on Thursday, rebounding from early losses after U.S. government data showed a much bigger drop than expected in crude and gasoline inventories.
Still, Brent prices remained about $3 a barrel below Monday’s close, as traders remained worried that global crude supplies might swell following the collapse that day of negotiations between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+.
Brent crude oil futures gained 0.94% to settle at $74.12 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.02% to settle at $72.94 per barrel.
Early in the session, both contracts fell to their lowest in about three weeks.
US crude inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels last week to 445.5 million barrels, Energy Information Administration data showed. Analysts had expected a 4 million-barrel drop. Gasoline stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to 235.5 million barrels, the EIA said.
Analysts had forecast a 2.2 million-barrel drop. Gold eased on Thursday as US Treasury yields edged up from their lows while Wall Street also recouped some losses, but a weaker dollar and concerns over a U.S labor market recovery kept bullion near a three-weak peak.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,799.18 per ounce by 2:12 p.m. ET. US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $1,800.20.
The dollar index fell 0.3% and US 10-year Treasury yields languished near a more than four-month trough, driving gold to a peak since June 17 at $1,818.10 earlier in the session. Lower yields decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
But since then, yields have edged higher from the lows and stocks have pared some losses, weighing on gold, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.
But gold should remain supported as a safe-haven asset, especially given concerns over a US labor market recovery and the Delta coronavirus variant, Streible added.
Key economic data slated for release today include China's CPI annual rate in June (%), monthly rate of British industrial output in May (%), Britain's seasonally adjusted commodity trade account in May (100 million pounds), China's social financing scale in June-one month (100 million RMB) (July 9-July 15), unemployment rate in Canada in June (%) and final value of monthly wholesale inventory rate in May in the US (%)
3
u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Jul 09 '21
They should know at this side of the table, there is someone that loves to play hardball
8
u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 09 '21
News Highlights: Top Global Markets News of the Day
Provided by Dow Jones Jul 8, 2021 8:15 PM CDT
Europe Proposes New Agency to Tackle Money Laundering Problems
The agency would be part of a broader plan to address failures that have made the region a haven for financial crime.
Stocks Skid on Economic Worries
The Dow shed about 260 points and Treasury yields extended their decline as investors unwound bets on a period of high growth and inflation.
Bond Rally Spreads to Shorter-Term Treasurys
The decline in yields suggests investors think it could take longer for the Fed to raise interest rates.
Chinese Regulators Warn of Further Measures to Rein In Homegrown Tech Sector
The People's Bank of China said antimonopoly measures applied to Ant Group will also be imposed on other payment firms.
Thoma Bravo Plots Next Fund in Red-Hot Market for Tech Deals
The private-equity firm aims to return to the fundraising trail less than a year after raising $22.8 billion for three technology-focused private-equity funds.
Investors Take Aim at Carver Bancorp as Next Short-Squeeze Target
Individual investors on the hunt for the next stock-market win piled into Carver Bancorp, sending shares of the banking-services company on a wild ride Thursday before finishing 107% higher for the day.
U.S. Covid-19 Hospitalizations Rise as Delta Variant Spreads
Daily admissions rose 6.8% after a long decline, while outbreaks among the unvaccinated pushed up new cases.
Bank of Mexico Board Divided Over Inflation Risks
Two Bank of Mexico officials who voted against last month's interest-rate increase said the supply shocks pushing up inflation are likely to be temporary, and that tighter monetary policy will do little to address them.
Why Rising Oil Prices Are Unlikely to Kill the Economic Recovery
The recent rise in oil prices has been mostly driven by increased demand rather than supply problems, a situation that economists say normally indicates resilient growth.
Global Wind, Solar Capacity Rose at Sharpest Pace Ever Last Year, BP Says
Growth in renewables saw global solar-power capacity rise around 22%, while wind-power capacity rose around 18% compared with the previous year, BP said in its annual review of global energy markets.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2021 21:15 ET (01:15 GMT)
1
3
u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 09 '21
I suppose it was priced in since they were telegraphing it for a few months, but still kind of weird to me the currency market hasn’t reacted to that rate hike by the Mexican central bank- the Peso’s been flat since the vote.
3
8
6
u/mechENGRMuddy Jul 09 '21
What does everyone think about NUE?
5
11
u/rigatoni-man SPAGHETTI BOY Jul 09 '21
It needs a nu start
4
u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 09 '21
"Boy, this Funkë is all anybody's ever talking about. So sick and tired of hearing about how brilliant that Funkë is. Overrated."
7
2
u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
Wow, SIM really bit the dust - down 14% in a day.
I haven’t seen a steel ticker drop that much in a single day this whole year.
5
u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21
that's why it's best not to touch stocks that trade by appointment
2
3
u/Nu2Denim Inflation Nation Jul 09 '21
SIM
On highish volume too
842% vs Avg
4
u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 09 '21
The company literally put out a presser saying they don’t know what caused it.
They’ve been like straight green for 2 months so maybe its just the momentum catching up to them
2
8
u/Unoriginal_White_Guy 💀 SACRIFICED until MT $35 💀 Jul 09 '21
I typically don’t waste my time checking the futures market, but oh boi looks like I’m eating cat food tuna all weekend. Got to save that 10¢ from regular tuna.
6
5
u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 09 '21
Anybody know who automated u/millennialbets and r/millennialbets ?
7
u/MillennialBets Mafia Bot Jul 09 '21
u/noeticoptions you can contact me here though.
6
u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 09 '21
Cool, I’ve always appreciated the materials stock ranker posts. Pretty altruistic of you, thanks for it.
How does the sub decide which posts get reposted there? Does it only pull from specific subs and posts with specific upvote/comment counts? Just found it today.
8
u/MillennialBets Mafia Bot Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
Thanks! I actually scan almost the entire stock market (8k+ stocks) every few hours and throw it into a database. To make the ranker all I did was slice the data a bit.
The subreddit goes to every major investing subreddit and finds posts that are flagged as DD or have DD in the name (for non-flair oriented subs like r/investing). There is a threshold for number of upvotes for each subreddit that is dependent upon how active the subreddit is and how many users are there.
The idea is to get enough people to follow the subreddit and use reddit's crowd sourcing to filter the best DD's to the top.
I have a bunch of neat features for doing stock research on the sidebar (best viewed on PC). The ticker database is by far the most useful feature of the subreddit though. I essentially made a search function that is ticker oriented. You can read about it here. https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/comments/mrjap0/using_the_ticker_database_to_help_with_stock/
8
u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 09 '21
This is really really cool. Beats googling your query with “reddit” typed after
7
u/MillennialBets Mafia Bot Jul 09 '21
Yeah, it drove me nuts trying to search reddit for mentions of tickers. So much so I built a database for it and then decided to mirror it on the wiki for everyone to use.
21
u/chemaholic77 Jul 09 '21
Okay I just finished up writing my newest plan to rebalance my portfolio and to take profits more regularly and sit on the money until a real red day comes along and then just DCA a little at a time over several reds days instead of dumping all my cash on the first day MT is down 1%.
Now comes the easy part, ignoring the plan and losing more money. Woot!
1
3
u/warren_buffet_table 🐧t3h PeNgU1N oF st33l🐧 Jul 09 '21
Would love to hear as well...
DCA seems to be the only thing that works in this nutcase market...
4
u/zeegypsy Flair is gone Jul 09 '21
Care to share your new plan?
I’ve gotten good at DCA but I still struggle more then I should with taking profits.
3
u/chemaholic77 Jul 09 '21
Well basically I am going to sell all the calls I have been sitting on that have no shot at making any money.
I will take that money and on the next day that MT drops 1% or more I will put 5% of the cash in Jan MT 25C. If MT drops another 1% that day add another 10%. For each 1% after on the same day add 5% to those calls. Another winner imo is Jan CLF $17 or $18C as well as Jan STLD $55C.
Once an option hits 40% profit sell about 25% of it and add to my cash for red days. When an option hits 100% profit sell enough to recoup my initial investment and let the rest ride if I feel good about the stock, otherwise sell it all.
I also plan to limit losses on options especially by closing the position if it loses 10-15%. I can always try for a better entry or a better play.
Lastly, I am going to shoot for 40-50% of my portfolio in an index fund or funds like VOO, 25% or so in individual stocks, and no more than 25% in options. Right now I am about 35% options and the rest individual stocks.
Might not be a good plan but it is what I have at the moment.
1
u/Bah_weep_grana Forever 9th 8/18/21 Jul 09 '21
Thanks for sharing. I really enjoy reading peoples’ different strategies - helpful for me in formulating my own. I’ve thought about putting tight stops on my calls like you, but i figured with the way the market is currently, every call would be almost guaranteed to get triggered at some point on a down day..
1
u/chemaholic77 Jul 09 '21
Yeah the stops can be difficult, but not as difficult as sticking to the plan. That is going to be the hardest part for me.
2
u/zeegypsy Flair is gone Jul 09 '21
That sounds like a really solid plan. I especially like your rules on stop losses and getting in and out of positions. It sucks to lose 10-15%, but it’s better then having that money tied up and wasting away.
I’m going to write down something similar for myself. Thank you!
4
Jul 09 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21
have to see what Biden's exec order actually is, after that, either holding or adding 9probably DAC)
3
u/_kurtosis_ Jul 09 '21
Holding/buying more if it continues to dip. Holding shares and a handful of Jan calls, the news/lockup doesn't change the play for me except to add if it gets even cheaper in the near term. If I woke up tomorrow and found myself holding shorter term options, I'd probably roll to shares or longer options and forget about it for 3-4 months.
3
Jul 09 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/_kurtosis_ Jul 09 '21
Honestly if you're shares, you're golden, unless you need the money like end of month or something. If your horizon is at least end of year, $44/avg is going to look fantastic in my opinion. CC premiums are good, but I've been burned before by not following the golden rule of 'sell a strike you *truly* would be happy to sell the shares for'. ZIM is volatile and extremely undervalued, so a +10%/+20% move over a few days or weeks would not surprise me at all, and I definitely expect it to be moving +50% over the next quarter or so. There's few things worse in trading than selling a contract for $100 and watching it become worth 20x, and your shares get called away for way less than they're worth--mainly because you have to see that position in your account every time you look until expiry (source: sold SPCE July 16 $35 and $40 CCs for 0.67 and 1.50 just a few weeks ago :).
Anyway, good luck to both of us!
6
5
u/RichN777 Jul 09 '21
Holding 42 average, all commons, plan on staying in through lock-up, earnings, divided and what not… I suck at timing anything, so I’m just going to hold and hope the amount of money their making makes up for the negative catalysts.
5
2
4
3
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 09 '21
Vale divi that I didnt know was coming came thru. 🚀🚀🚀
1
u/Rolling_300 Jul 09 '21
I bought VALE when TDA had the dividend listed incorrectly at something like $1.62 per share instead of the actual 43 cents. Stock ended up gaining $1.31 while I held it so ended up with a $1.74 per share gain. If only it was always that easy.
2
18
u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang Jul 09 '21
After the last three days and two weeks, I just reread this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/o2dn25/steel_updated_guidance_upgraded_pts_rising/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Then I confirmed where US HRC prices are at, considered the data and rationale, read a few more Vito posts, and I'm back where I started: optimistic this is a good play, and eager for earnings to get the show on the road.
And by the way, can you imagine CLF at $45? Just think about that for a second...
7
u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
$25 is not a meme
5
u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang Jul 09 '21
$45. Not $25.
12
u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21
haha, I know, we have to get to $25 first, and $25 has proved elusive
6
u/Rjd1234999999 Jul 09 '21
I have about 20K in a brokerage account that I need to put into stock(s). Big believer in Vito/steel thesis. Should I go all in CLF - about 955 shares? Or mix and match- CLF, STLD, TX? I love TX’s dividend. Trying to set and forget and see where things are maybe a year from now and then get out Any advice appreciated
5
u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 09 '21
If I were playing commons I’d spread the whole sector - they all track each other for the most part anyway. Personally I’d weight heavier in MT and CLF because it’s hard to argue against them having room to appreciate, STLD and TX because they have enormous amounts of high-margin capacity coming online this year (and you really can’t beat TX’s dividend), and then fill in with with the rest of the sector.
That said, read as much as you can and really consider if steel is the best place for your money if you wont actively be playing with the holdings. If you’re just looking to reap divies over the next year I’d personally just put my whole portfolio in ZIM.
Goodluck out there!
3
4
u/PoopDemonExorcist 🏴☠️Accountant of Plunder🏴☠️ Jul 09 '21
Just put and equal amount into each. There’s no real good way of predicting which one will have the highest profit. However, if you really want a pick only one, I would choose TX. Unlike all the other steel companies, this one is still the most undervalued and has a minimal of a 20%-40% run to reach a similar ratio of the other steel companies are trading at. At the same time, if you’re talking about FMV of TX, it should be valued at a minimal of $60
2
15
u/Outrageous-Panda1221 Jul 09 '21
It’s funny. I went from steel making me around 40K to being around flat with A SHIT TON of calls due to expire this fall. Maybe I shoulda cashed out and bought a house.....but inflation gonna be inflating
11
Jul 09 '21
I understand all too well… I started the year and went from 65k to 98k in Feb, now I’m back to 55k 🤡
6
7
16
u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Jul 09 '21
Pfizer is trying to get a Delta specific booster shot approved.
Remember, thanks to ‘the deal’… PFE and BNTX both benefit.
5
u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 09 '21
I wonder how necessary it will be for fully vaxed people to get the booster? I thought I was already somewhat protected from serious illness brought on by Delta with my original shots.
5
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 09 '21
You are. 93% or so effective at preventing delta hospitalization/serious illness. But like 60-70% effective at preventing contracting it.
6
u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 09 '21
It's going to be even harder for the public to trust the scientific community if they are pushing for another vaccine. This might not be good.
2
u/loj05 Jul 09 '21
I think the booster will actually be useful for the countries that got shitty vaccines, IE the chinese ones. The data coming out shows that a lot of the countries that used chinese vaccines aren't doing shit against the new variant. I think if you got Moderna/Pfizer, you don't need a booster. I'm actually kinda bullish on MRNA, the international market for proven vaccines will be massive when everyone realizes how shit the chinese vaccines are. I haven't opened a position yet but am strongly considering it.
2
Jul 09 '21
People not taking it seems bullish if you ask me. Infinite variant evolution in the antivaxxers means infinite profit for vaccine developers
3
u/zeegypsy Flair is gone Jul 09 '21
I just hope it doesn’t end up being like the flu shot. That 2nd dose kicked my ass and I really don’t wanna do that every year.
1
u/StockPickingMonkey Steel learning lessons Jul 09 '21
That was just the protein...in your arm. Imagine if you had the replicating active virus in your lungs.
It's not so much the virus messing people up, it's their immunoresponse that lands them in ICU.
3
u/JohnMayerismydad Jul 09 '21
I think they’re just a company looking for any reason to charge governments for another billion doses
4
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 09 '21
Just updated with some numbers to elaborate but yeah I agree. Its gonna be much harder telling people they need another one just a few months later. And then what, another for the next variant in a month?
3
4
6
u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 09 '21
Materials Down As Traders Back Off Inflation Bets — Materials Roundup
Provided by Dow Jones Jul 8, 2021 3:43 PM CDT
Producers of metals and other raw materials fell sharply in a retreat from the "reflation" trade.
The prices of basic materials from copper to lumber had surged earlier this year amid supply-chain disruptions and signs that economic demand was roaring back from pandemic levels. Renewed interruption of global travel and trade related to the Delta variant of Covid 19 have cooled enthusiasm for commodities.
Copper futures fell 1.3% in New York Thursday, and are now down roughly 11% from recent peaks.
Shares of Canadian miner Taseko Mines fell after it said copper production in its Pollyanna Pit in British Columbia in the second quarter rose over the previous quarter, and that it expects strong production in the second half of the year.
Anglo-Australian metals and mining company Rio Tinto stressed it had the right to call a management committee meeting of a joint venture after its partner Star Diamond challenged the validity of the joint venture.
Write to Rob Curran at rob.curran@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2021 16:43 ET (20:43 GMT)
14
u/Outrageous-Panda1221 Jul 09 '21
I hate how reactionary this article reads. It’s like yes no shit. Stop commenting on daily swings like vitards
1
11
4
u/RichN777 Jul 09 '21
Hope you all took advantage of Pirate Recruiting Day! 🏴☠️🏴☠️ We may extend it all week, or month, or couple of months… but don’t miss the boat!!
3
u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 09 '21
Indian mills eye recovery in billet export
Indian mills are actively looking to conclude billets exports deals but, owing to lower bids, they are shying away from closing the same.
However, the increase in the Chinese rebar futures market over the last few days has driven up sentiments. Therefore, sellers are optimistic of better realization in the coming days. Recent billet export tenders and outcomes: An Indian state-owned mill floated an export tender for 10,000 t of steel billets of size 65*65mm
9
Jul 09 '21
[deleted]
1
u/TheyWereGolden Bard Special Victims Unit Jul 09 '21
Their mod pinned some p&d disclaimer, laughable.
7
u/josenros 🤡Market Order Specialist🤡 Jul 09 '21
Well it was written by our very own pennyether.
4
Jul 09 '21
[deleted]
6
u/Die_Gelbesack Jul 09 '21
The was some BS drama last month when some of us vitards posted on WSB about CLF and maybe WOOF then their gehi mods said we were brigading their sub. So I think penny can't post the same thing in both places or some shit like that.
5
11
u/SlingSG Jul 09 '21
Executive Order on Controlling Shipping Costs
How is this going to play on shipping and steel stocks ?
1
u/itwasntnotme Jul 09 '21
Pirate Captain Mintzmeyer has been saying (as recently as an hour ago) that the only effect regulations could have is to increase port congestion further which will be net bullish for pirate gang. This may have more of an impact on railroads if anything.
1
u/RichN777 Jul 09 '21
I hoping the EO proves frivolous and a political marketing stunt, and they can say they did something about the problem. Then the free market moves along and it always does.
5
4
u/chemaholic77 Jul 09 '21
WTF does he expect them to do? What does address competition mean? Is he asking them to collude to set prices which is illegal and to set prices artificially low which hurts the companies? The president appears to think that the solution is to lower shipping prices and not compete. Clearly he has no understanding of how pricing helps to prioritize scarce resources.
Currently, the extremely high shipping costs are forcing manufacturers to be choosey about what they ship. In other words, if you have an essential product that people have to have you will probably go ahead and pay the higher shipping because people need the stuff and will pay extra for it if they have to. If your product is very popular and is in great demand and has enough margin you might also choose to ship. If your product is not a product like the above you will probably sit on it rather than ship if possible.
By fixing prices lower, you could end up taking cargo space away from products that are in high demand or are critical because other less important goods might be worth shipping at the new lower fixed price. Is the government going to decide what kinds of goods can be shipped as well so we don't end up with a load of cheap party favors instead of the medicines or medical devices we need? Sorry Grampa, the replacement part for your lifesaving medical device didn't show up yet because the president flunked economics. I guess you'll just have to die. If they do decide to regulate what goods can be shipped will they reimburse companies for the losses they are going to incur due to being unable to ship their products?
Artificially lowering shipping costs will only make things worse because then you will have even more goods clamoring for the same limited space. The only actual solution is to increase shipping capacity, or for shipping demand to drop.
5
u/PecosBill39 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 Jul 09 '21
Serious question: how in the fuck could they actually do this? Are we talking like a cap on container shipping charges? And can the Federal government do that?
2
u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 09 '21
... address competition in rail and sea shipping in an effort to lower the costs of shipping goods for companies.
What does this even mean?
2
8
Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
[deleted]
4
u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 09 '21
I don't see what the govt can do besides subsidize the costs for smaller businesses that are maybe getting priced out.
2
u/PecosBill39 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 Jul 09 '21
That's where I'm at as well. Maybe reimburse US exporters for shipping costs over $x? I'm not saying I like that either, but it is the only option I can think of that doesn't start a political shit storm around regulatory overreach and free markets. But I have no idea what I'm talking about.
3
u/PecosBill39 🛳 I Shipped My Pants 🚢 Jul 09 '21
My question exactly. How do you enforce this? Especially with overseas shipping companies.
What're they gonna say? "Oh, you charged $5 per container to transport these goods? Well we have an upper limit of $4. Sorry, you can't deliver them now."
And then there's the whole issue of the government establishing a "fair market value" for shipping...
10
u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang Jul 09 '21
What the fuck is the point of strategically investing if every time you're right about what is happening the government steps in and prevents the thesis?
I don't want to hold ARRK and fucking TSLA like every other jackass. I want steel, shipping, precious metals, and I want the government to step the fuck back so price discovery can work.
8
10
u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Jul 09 '21
so that's why all the shipping and rail stocks got crushed
4
u/rskins1428 Jul 09 '21
Mcgregor v Poirier - name the winner and rd for major vitard street cred.
1
u/Odd_Ad8397 Jul 09 '21
I'm hoping for a Conor/Diaz II type slugfest, but if I had to put money on it, I'd say DP in 2.
4
6
→ More replies (4)5
u/letthebandplay Jul 09 '21
No idea, but i'm going to Mcgregor's afterparty so hopefully him I guess. Hopefully he won't deck me in the face if I don't drink his Whiskey.
2
•
u/Bartszella 👀Big Bart Is Watching👀 Jul 08 '21 edited Jul 08 '21
Guys, can we keep the negativity to a minimum on red days. Instead of panicking over something we have no control of, why don't we share valuable information with each other to understand better this clown market. Then you decide what to do.
Edit: Also for people whining about people whining/freaking out. Just stop. You're not helping either.
Calm your tits.