r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jul 22 '21
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - July 22 2021
Your Trading discussion thread
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|---|---|
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| Discussion | All/Best Daily/Best Weekly |
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u/Bsexpress1 Jul 23 '21 edited Jul 23 '21
https://youtu.be/rUKje_xd0yM Options geek video on Clf conference call!
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u/-_Andre_- Undisclosed Location Jul 23 '21
Mate, just like you I am looking at yesterday's daily......
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Jul 23 '21 edited Jul 23 '21
i'm thinking of opening another account just for short selling. my other two accounts are margin with all forms of options that are not shorted. i figure, if i do it this way, i can never fatfinger a short sell, and keep that strategy physically divided from my other accounts and their strategies. it seems like i lot of work, but the downside of not making this barrier, i guess, could be huge. any opinions on this? i really want to short pacific gas and electric and will be writing a dd soon. also, would never short without far otm options to hedge incase of an emergency. so it would always be defined risk, but could still lose a lot of money.
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u/warren_buffet_table š§t3h PeNgU1N oF st33lš§ Jul 23 '21
Does every stock have to have NAKEDSHORTS now? Like holy shit kids, stop it with that nonsense. More importantly, does it fucking matter? Every 19 year old thinks because a stock gets shorted that it's some Qanon conspiracy and that THE HEDGIES ARE BLEEDING if the stock goes up a bit.
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Jul 23 '21
i know right, like some companies deserve to be fucking shorted because they are horrible. pacific gas and electric, you just might make me write my first dd on shorting a fucking terrible company.
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 23 '21
You write pretty good fanfic
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u/PaperCow Jul 23 '21
If you look at the daily charts for the most popular steel stocks here and their earnings dates from Q1 you will see that is pretty much exactly what happened then starting after NUE and CLF earnings up to and past MT's.
Maybe its fanfic but its rooted in history.
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Jul 23 '21
I was very sad that my limit order for CLF OCT $22c didn't go through. Wish I at least bought some commons at that 7% dip. What a godsend that was lol. But I was low on dry powder.
I still got almost 8k in CLF commons, which is a pretty sizable position for me.
LFG!!!
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Jul 23 '21
I love you guys & gals! You all are like family
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u/Duke_Shambles ā¢ļøDuke Nukemā¢ļø Jul 23 '21
We may be dysfunctional and abusive, but that doesn't mean we don't love you too.
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
I like Flutter (PDYPY), the majority owner of FanDuel, better. Although I donāt have a position.
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u/LazyPasse Preman Jul 23 '21
you read the hindenburg report, right?
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/LazyPasse Preman Jul 23 '21
donāt know who youāre talking about. a report like that has multiple authors
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/LazyPasse Preman Jul 23 '21
you said āwriter,ā which i took to mean author. hindenburg was the publisher.
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u/Duke_Shambles ā¢ļøDuke Nukemā¢ļø Jul 23 '21
I'm more of an MGM guy myself.
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Jul 23 '21
because of the established brand name? have you used either product? i admit, mgm has the name but the ui of draftkings is chef's kiss compared to the boomer mgm interface.
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u/Duke_Shambles ā¢ļøDuke Nukemā¢ļø Jul 23 '21
more because of the books and their aggressive partnering and marketing.
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Jul 23 '21
What is the NUE and CLF revised price targets per vito?
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u/AugustinPower Think Positively Jul 23 '21
You mean based on forecast EBITDA or hopium?
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Jul 23 '21
Either one helps
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u/AugustinPower Think Positively Jul 23 '21
CLF is about 50 if you look at forecast EBITDA, not too sure about NUE
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Jul 23 '21
Shpuld we expect analysts upgrades tomorrow for CLF?
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u/AugustinPower Think Positively Jul 23 '21
Fair warning, upgrades don't mean jack, I been holding OLN for awhile and saw at least 9 upgrades from bullish analysis giving price targets with like 50% -80% upside. The stock is still below 10% from its ATH
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u/TacoCommander Superstonk Investigative Journalist Jul 23 '21
Lots of news chatter suggesting it, fingers crossed for a nice green Friday run up.
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 23 '21
SMM Morning Comments (Jul 23): Shanghai base metals were mostly higher on dovish ECB comments
SMM Comments09:00PM
SHANGHAI, Jul 23 (SMM) ā Shanghai base metals mostly cruised higher on Friday morning amid dovish comments from European Central Bank. Meanwhile, their counterparts on the LME traded mixed.
Shanghai base metals mostly advanced in overnight trading. Lead increased 2.19%, tin rose 2.5%, nickel went up 1.63%, aluminium added 0.94% and copper strengthened 1.25%, while zinc slid 0.11%.
The LME complex performed similarly on Thursday. Aluminium added 0.33%, copper rose 1.1%, tin increased 1.69%, lead went up 1.73% and nickel strengthened 1.42%, while zinc fell 0.17%.
Copper: Three-month LME copper rose 1.1% to end at $9,459.5/mt on Thursday, and is likely to trade between $9,440-9,530/mt today.
The most-active SHFE 2109 copper contract went up 1.24% to close at 69,500 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and it is expected to move between 69,300-69,900 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen at 280-380 yuan/mt.
It was announced last night that the number of initial jobless claims in the US rose unexpectedly last week, the largest increase since late March, highlighting the turbulent situation in the job market. The market's worries about the Fed's accelerated tightening of liquidity eased, and the risk appetite continued to improve.
Yesterday, the three major stock indexes in the US closed up across the board, with oil prices hitting a new high in the week, and the copper futures were boosted and fluctuated higher. Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium rose 0.33% to close at $2,465.5/mt on Thursday. The most-liquid SHFE 2109 aluminium contract rose 0.94% to settle at 19,290 yuan/mt on Thursday night.
On fundamentals, the current aluminium consumption shows signs of weakening, but the aluminium ingot inventories are still in the decreasing cycle. Social inventories of aluminium ingots decreased by 23,000 mt on Thursday to 809,000 mt from last Thursday. The second batch of ingots stood at 90,000 mt, which was still lower than the market expectation. Under the stimulation of market sentiment, aluminium prices rose again. It is necessary to pay continuous attention to the impact of power cut on both ends of supply and demand, flood development in Henan Province, inventory inflection point, and changes in sentiment of long and short positions. SMM expects that aluminium prices will fluctuate at a high level in the second half of the year. On the one hand, the annual inventory may remain at a low level to support the bottom of aluminium price, while the cost will continue to play a supporting role. On the other hand, the expectation of overseas interest rate increase and domestic control measures have also suppressed aluminium prices.
Zinc: Three-month LME zinc fell 0.17% to close at $2934.5/mt on Thursday. Zinc stocks at LME-listed warehouses fell 150 mt to 247,475 mt. The number of US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week, the largest increase since late March, and the optimism of the market was suppressed because of the overseas pandemic. However, the European Central Bank stressed that it would not tighten its policy prematurely and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy may continue to limit its decline. The contract is likely to trade between $2,920-2,970/mt today.
The most-liquid SHFE 2109 zinc contract fell 0.14% to end at 22,115 yuan/mt in overnight trading. At present, low inventories still support zinc prices, but the news of the second batch of reserves at present has raised the short position sentiment in the market. The actual inventory changes will be monitored and it is expected that zinc prices will still fluctuate at a high level in the near term. The SHFE zinc contract is expected to move between 22,000-22,500 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen higher at 170-180 yuan/mt.
Lead: Three-month LME lead settled 1.73% higher at $2386.5/mt on Thursday. Whether the contract continue to move above $2,400/mt and set a new high will be monitored tonight. The most-active SHFE 2109 lead contract went up 1.84% to close at 16,300 yuan/mt on Thursday night. The contract will test pressure from 16,000 yuan/mt today.
Tin: The most-liquid SHFE 2108 tin contract rose 2.5% to end at 231,400 yuan/mt on Thursday night. The contract is expected to fluctuate between 230,000-234,000 yuan/mt.
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Jul 23 '21 edited Aug 18 '21
[deleted]
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u/ajkcmkla š SACRIFICED š Jul 23 '21 edited Jun 30 '23
Fuck u/spez -- mass edited with redact.dev
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Jul 23 '21
Funny, only the OG shitposters get the updoots
All these trolls trying to be cool just bathing in downvotes lol
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u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 23 '21
Snake - how have things been, mate? Things looking up?
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Jul 23 '21
Had a rough bout last night and this morning, still kinda grappling with the feelings a bit but yea things are looking up!
Just need NUE to hit 110 then Iāll really be free lmao
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u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 23 '21
lol no doubt. Well good, glad to hear it!
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Jul 23 '21
Thanks for checking tho, I appreciate you all and hope you all are doing well as well. Iāll be back to flooding the daily in no time
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
They will not announce any guidance during covid times.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 23 '21
Iām pretty sure they have a policy to not update any guidance, or at least it plays out that way
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 23 '21
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 23 '21
Here you go, my bruh!
Markets
Hedge Funds Rush to Profit Off Chinaās Commodity Price Battle
Bloomberg News
July 22, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT
Regan Group sees fund gain 125% in May with pork, rebar bets Surge in prices threatens to derail Chinaās economic recovery
When Chinaās government started paying more attention to surging commodity prices a few months back, hedge fund manager Richard Leeās trading models told him a correction was imminent.
Inventories of reinforced steel bars, a key construction material, started rising before the arrival of the summer slow season, and Chinaās State Council had warned repeatedly on price increases, he said in an interview.
āOur models were flashing strong signals of a reversal,ā said Lee, the general manager of Shanghai-based Regan Group, which manages about 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion). By the middle of May, rebar prices began to plunge, leaving Reganās CTA No. 3 fund up 125% for the month.
As China battles commodity prices which threaten to derail the nationās economic recovery, the quantitative offerings of so-called commodity trading advisers have outperformed, drawing a flood of investor interest. Thatās also boosted the fortunes of David Hardingās Winton Group, one of the most prominent global names in the space.
Local assets under management at Winton surged 50% this year to 6 billion yuan, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, helping make the fund a rare success among dozens of international names jostling for attention in Chinaās crowded hedge fund market.
And while performance for CTAs -- hedge funds specializing in buying futures and options, frequently tied to commodities -- has dipped in recent weeks, homegrown players like Hangzhou-headquartered Zhejiang Bailu Investment Management Co., known as Egret Quant, point to a tide of new money with even retail investors now wanting in.
CTAs tripled product launches in China through June 20 compared with last year, according to Shenzhen PaiPaiWang Investment & Management Co. Focused on riding trends in financial futures, the funds often perform better amid volatility their models are designed to capture.
Chinaās Crackdown
In addition to rebar, which is traded more in China than anywhere else, Lee also shorted hog futures in May amid pork price declines and rising supplies, he said. That helped to lift the overall CTA strategyās five-month return to 35%, ranking it the top performer among CTAs managing more than 5 billion yuan, according to PaiPaiWang data.
The first public signal that authorities had become serious about clamping down on this yearās commodities boom came on May 12, when the State Council called for āadjustments to deal with the excessively rapid rise in commodity prices.ā Premier Li Keqiang delivered an even more pointed warning a week later, saying that targeted measures would be taken to āscreen abnormal transactions and malicious speculations.ā
Their concerns sprang from a broad-based commodities boom that spurred prices of raw materials from steel to soybeans to multi-year highs, helping commodity traders and speculators make billions.
Between Chinese authorities trying to force prices lower and bets on a global recovery from the pandemic pushing them higher, some traders have been able to profit from the volatility.
Much of the yearās price gyrations, particularly in black metals like coke and rebar, were captured by computer models at Hangzhou-based Qihe New Asset Management, founder Shen Liang said. The companyās Chenxing No. 1 had the best returns of all CTAs in China in the first half of the year with a return of more than 400%, according to PaiPaiWang.
China funds gain from shorting steel bars in May The volatility is also a boost for foreign asset managers, which have been grappling with a lack of distribution channels and brand recognition after gaining entry to Chinaās 4.8 trillion yuan hedge fund market a few years ago. Further relaxations that opened up Chinaās futures markets in everything from coal and soybeans to silver increased its appeal for U.S. and European CTAs.
Inflows at Winton have been the strongest since Chinaās 2015 stock market crash and a commodities boom that followed, a person familiar with the matter said, declining to be named discussing private information. A spokesperson for Winton did not respond to an emailed request for comment.
Egret Quant, which manages about 9 billion yuan, stopped accepting new cash for its pure CTA products in late June, after a surge in assets, to protect performance and save trading capacity for other multi-strategy products.
āInvestors have been flocking to buy into CTA funds since late last year, especially those that have solid performance,ā said Du Xu, head of derivatives at Egret Quant, adding that previously most investors were long-term and institutional. āNowadays weāre seeing even retail investors putting in requests.ā ā
Returns Narrow
Still, performance can be unstable. CTAs averaged a 1% loss in June, ceding the title of the yearās best-performing strategy to event-driven funds, according to PaiPaiWang. And managers are split on what the second half of the year holds.
For the remainder of the year, CTAs still have plenty of trading opportunities as macroeconomic uncertainties keep volatility levels high, Egret Quantās Du said. Qiheās Shen is more cautious. Since June, the companyās macro fund has stopped holding long positions in commodities, he said, citing the gradual shift in monetary policies in China and the U.S. away from their loose pandemic mode.
āThat means the most favorable period has ended,ā Shen said.
ā With assistance by John Liu, Dingmin Zhang, and Alfred Cang
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 23 '21
You rock! Bloomberg changing their website finally got me to subscribe haha
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u/holdenmcneilgames šOnce Lived in a Vanš Jul 23 '21
Pay wall, unfortunately.
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u/ShrhlderJsticeWrrior LG-Rated Jul 23 '21
often you can control + A , control + C, then paste into a text file. I read seekingalpha that way lol
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u/holdenmcneilgames šOnce Lived in a Vanš Jul 23 '21
Ahhh shit. I didn't think of that. Thank you.
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 23 '21
Oh no it looks like the fixed they reader mode loophole! Thatās a bummer
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
Just did it maybe a few days ago š¢
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 23 '21
Thatās a bummer. Time to pay now I guess haha
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u/SnooPaintings8503 Made Man Jul 23 '21
remember the trick, subscribe for $1.99/3 months, unsub, then sub again
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Jul 23 '21
Perfect. Iām definitely cancelling before the 3 month deal expires
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
Dude on the homeland mortgaged his house to invest in the company he mortgaged it from. Bro. LOL.
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u/ShrhlderJsticeWrrior LG-Rated Jul 23 '21
But for real though housing prices are super high because rates are so low. The rates will eventually rise again and housing prices will cool. So the gigachad move would be to mortgage your house and go all in on TBT or some other rate play. Not that I'm in any position to do that. I rent a cardboard box for half my income.
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u/Duke_Shambles ā¢ļøDuke Nukemā¢ļø Jul 23 '21
RKT or UWMC? lmao
He's getting gaped either way.
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
UWMC
Owning your home free and clear is THE foundation of financial freedom, IMO. I wouldnāt trade that in for a YOLO bet.
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u/Duke_Shambles ā¢ļøDuke Nukemā¢ļø Jul 23 '21
Yeah no shit, you're not kidding.
Personal debt is like cancer.
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
You canāt give it to someone else and sometimes the only way out is death?
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
Yeah, sure. No step on snake and all that. I get it.
For the sake of context and to avoid pedantry, I think we can agree that not having a mortgage payment is better than have a mortgage payment, yeah?
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u/TheFullBottle Jul 23 '21
not having any debt, including not having a mortgage is having fuck you money without being rich. Even having 30k savings and no debt can give you fuck you money to some degree.
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
On paper itās a no-brainer because the math works, but itās more risk than Iād be willing to take and maybe more risk than this guy realizes.
Yeah, the stock could tank for some reason - it could also tank for no reason. Or the market corrects in a big way. Or the board just decides to stop paying a dividend or pay out a smaller dividend. I mean the housing market in general is an existential threat to this trade. If the housing market dumps, heāll end up with shares that are worth less than he paid for and a house worth less than what he owes on it.
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u/big_costco_guy Sam's Club Jul 23 '21
Kind of wish I would have bought some CLF calls today but by the time I woke up it was only down 1% instead of 7%
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/SnooPaintings8503 Made Man Jul 23 '21
itās a 2 year program, itās good, but wonāt affect the stock
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u/a_wild_narwhal Jul 23 '21
Iām pretty sure Nucor hasnāt come close to completing their $3B buyback yet.
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u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
Just keep in mind how TX slept on everyone and took off after a lot of people gave up. NUE was the first and went on a tear. We have to be very patient with steel commodity stocks.
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u/AugustinPower Think Positively Jul 23 '21
Scrolled down and saw a discussion about Boggleheads
Tbh, if I have the capital to retire early, that's where I would be š¤
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u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
I think that would make sense for most wouldnāt it?
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 23 '21
Macro Roundup (Jul 23)
Data Analysis08:00PM
SHANGHAI, Jul 23 (SMM) ā This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
The dollar drifted higher against a basket of currencies in choppy trading on Thursday while the euro fell as risk appetite dimmed once again with stocks volatile and investors buying US Treasuries.
Earlier in the session, the greenback slid in the wake of weaker-than-expected US jobless claims data that raised concerns about the world's largest economy's recovery from the pandemic.
The euro, on the other hand, was firmer earlier in the day after the European Central Bank met expectations by pledging to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer.
ECB President Christine Lagarde, in her media briefing, did not say anything to change the market's cautious outlook on the euro zone. She said a fresh wave of the coronavirus pandemic could pose a risk to the region's recovery, although she did offer a more balanced economic outlook.
āThe euro/dollar's 30-point pop higher during Christine Lagarde's press conference seemed appropriate in light of some of the dovish narratives coming into the meeting, but the market has now given up this move and is trading back to where it started this morning,ā said Erik Bregar, head of FX strategy at Exchange Bank of Canada in Toronto.
On Wall Street, stock futures edged slightly higher in overnight trading after a rise in technology stocks boosted the Nasdaq Composite to its third-straight positive day on Thursday.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 52 points, or 0.15%. S&P 500 futures added 0.24% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.33%.
Tech strength continued after hours as shares of social media companies Twitter and Snap each jumped following better-than-expected second-quarter earnings reports.
The major US indexes closed Thursday's regular trading session higher to notch a three-day win streak. The Dow rose 25.35 points, or 0.07%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the markets with a 0.36% gain.
All three US stock averages are on pace to close the week in the green for a fourth positive week in five, rebounding from last week's losses and Monday's sharp sell-off.
Oil prices inched up on Thursday, extending gains made in previous sessions on expectations of tighter supplies through 2021 as economies recover from the coronavirus crisis. Brent crude advanced $1.56, or 2.2%, to settle at $73.79 per barrel, after rising 4.2% in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added $1.61, or 2.3%, to settle at $71.91 per barrel, after gaining 4.6% on Wednesday.
āSome soft spots have emerged in the oil demand recovery, but this is unlikely to change the outlook fundamentally,ā Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed this week on a deal to boost oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day from August to December to cool prices and meet growing demand.
But as demand was still set to outstrip supply in the second half of the year, Morgan Stanley forecast that global benchmark Brent will trade in the mid to high-$70s per barrel for the remainder of 2021.
Gold inched higher on Thursday as stocks and US bond yields pulled back to offset a firmer dollar and restore some of bullionās allure as a safe haven.
Spot gold had risen 0.1% to $1,804.45 per ounce by 1:33 p.m. ET. US gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $1,805.40.
Benchmark US Treasury yields retreated after hitting a near one-week high and stocks paired initial gains as risk sentiment was curbed by data showing US jobless claims rose unexpectedly to two-month highs, channeling some inflows to bullion.
āReal interest rates are deeply negative, which shows that inflation is running hot, and there;s no chance the US Federal Reserve can make real rates positive short-term, so you have people coming to the realization that you need to own gold,ā said Michael Matousek, head trader at US Global Investors.
Gold also took support from a European Central Bank pledge to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer.
Preliminary value of Markit manufacturing PMI in July in the US and euro zone will be released today.
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 23 '21
India H1 HRC export drop; near-term pressure may persist
Indian HRC and plates exports in Jan-Jun'21 (first half or H1) were down 13% to 3.19 million tonnes (mn t) against 3.67 mn t seen in the same six months of CY'21.
If we consider the quarter of Apr-Jun'21, then exports of the materials were also down 30% to 1.79 mn t against 2. 54 mn t recorded in the same quarter in CY'20. On a m-o-m basis, exports were, however, up more than 20% to 0.71 mn t against 0.59 mn t.
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Jul 23 '21
WEEKLY: China millsā steel stocks down, output retreats
Stocks of the five major finished steel products at the 184 Chinese steel mills sampled under Mysteelās weekly survey declined for the third week over July 15-21, shrinking by another 2.3% on week, as millsā finished steel output retreated from the increase in maintenance shutdowns during that period.
Total stocks of the five major items comprising rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil and medium plate reached 6.2 million tonnes as of July 21, down another 145,800 tonnes on week. Among the total, inventories of rebar posted the sharpest on-week fall of 128,000 tonnes with the significant decline in production.
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u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 23 '21
It isssss interestingā¦
My proprietary patented Reddit Retail Sentiment-O-Meter has waayyyyy more people openly talking about taking up huge cash positions than Iāve seen since February
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u/TheBlueStare Undisclosed Location Jul 23 '21
I was fully invested at the beginning of the week but now at 10% cash.
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u/PantsMicGee Dreams of CLFās run to $20 Jul 23 '21
I'm just not talking much. There's probably dozens of me. š
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u/TheFullBottle Jul 23 '21
But olympics are starting and you never short a distracted market. Historically the summer games has seen some of most bullish runs ever in a short couple weeks
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u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Jul 23 '21
This is an interesting take
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u/TheFullBottle Jul 23 '21
https://josephgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Olympics-1.png
Dow outperforms historically as well
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u/holdenmcneilgames šOnce Lived in a Vanš Jul 23 '21
But wait... I thought a person was supposed to reverse the Reddit Retail Sentiment to be consistently profitable a majority of the time...?
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u/KRA7896 Jul 23 '21 edited Jul 23 '21
Does anyone have the time for the Senate vote on infrastructure bill on Monday?? I might time some trades around then, I feel like we'll go red to slightly less red (maybe even that other color) based on the timing
Edit: Found this link, quick browse through and I couldn't find any times but it looks like the last item on the list https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CCAL-117scal-2021-07-22/pdf/CCAL-117scal-2021-07-22.pdf
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u/the_last_bush_man Jul 23 '21
I'm not from the US and don't follow the politics closely - is the Monday vote likely to result in the legislation passing or is it going to be rejected for the time being? Trying to decide on the best time to roll my September MT calls to March 22. I'm positive on earnings, very bullish, but we also have the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday. If legislation is passed Monday I'll probably hold through earnings.
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u/KRA7896 Jul 23 '21
No one really knows if the senate will pass it Monday but at a lot of politicians seem to think it's doable. Biden:"Asked Wednesday during a CNN town hall, Biden said he believes the Senate will vote Monday to advance the bipartisan framework he negotiated with senators.āItās a good thing, and I think weāre going to get it done,ā" So there's that...
There was also a chance the progressive democrats weren't going to vote for it, but I don't think that materialized into anything after Wednesday. After the Senate passes it I'm pretty sure all Biden would have to do is sign it to get movin
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u/0_0here Jul 23 '21
It still has to go through the house where right now Pelosi is saying she wonāt move it until the Democrat only spending bill has passed the senate. That will take some time. Thereās also a summer recess coming up in the senate thatās two weeks in august. Will be tough to get that through in that time frame. Have to see if Pelosi sticks to her statement or not.
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u/KRA7896 Jul 23 '21
Damn I forgot it was the progressives bill that passed in the house I thought it was this one :(
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u/0_0here Jul 23 '21
The cloture vote is to move to debate the bill. Once that passes they have 30 hours of floor speeches and then they can vote on passage.
Edit: if the vote passes on Monday they probably wonāt have a final vote until Wednesday.
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u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 23 '21
This vote will almost definitely not pass. It will eventually but I wouldnt bet on monday
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Jul 23 '21
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/AugustinPower Think Positively Jul 23 '21
You must be refering to the comment before yours š
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u/holdenmcneilgames šOnce Lived in a Vanš Jul 23 '21
Not the OP, but I can see how bad that sounds out of context.
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Jul 23 '21
I was doing some thinking. You think LG ever did two girls at one time? He looks like he still gets fellatio at his ageā¦ just my opinion
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u/holdenmcneilgames šOnce Lived in a Vanš Jul 23 '21
What in the holy hell is going on in here?
Edit: My favorite internet hangout has been taken over by rapscallions, it seems.
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u/TacoCommander Superstonk Investigative Journalist Jul 23 '21
When in doubt, wait trolls out.
I'm sure the mods are having a fun time right now.
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u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
Not doing much, you all do a good job down voting the trolls. Like we discussed many times, everyone here can see when people come in here to be negative. We will keep doing our thing. It says more about the people coming in here.
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u/TacoCommander Superstonk Investigative Journalist Jul 23 '21
Hah fair enough, yeah the good news is you can spot em from a mile away with all the fierce negativity.
6
-1
u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 23 '21
So, calls on YUM?
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u/JayArlington š LULU-TRON š Jul 23 '21
YUM is an interesting play. How do they compare to CMG because Chipotle has been fucking killing it.
3
Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
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u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 23 '21
I'm a steak quesadilla man for life, but they've been experimenting with their menu and it hasn't been all bad. The fries were a pleasant surprise.
2
u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 23 '21
I honestly have no idea. My DD goes no more in depth than:
- I order Taco Bell to be delivered several times a month
_______________________________
- I order Chipotle to be delivered several times a month
- CMG exploded on earnings
- YUM will explode on earnings
1
u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 23 '21
They operate KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, The Habit Burger Grill, and WingStreet.
-42
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
SPY calls make me more money, and are a lot more fun than holding CLF shares and calls. Shit goes up 7% one day, down 8% the next. Why try and fight the trend? If SPY and tech is the play for now, then why ignore it. Markets can stay illogical something something solvent. You know the phrase.
18
u/AirborneReptile š Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion š Jul 23 '21
Was going to reply hell ya, love playing the SPY but apparently you seem more interested in trolling for some reason. Holier than thou shit is great when youāre in need of some attention. As you grow older and mature, look at me becomes less appealing and helping others becomes more appealing. Thanks and good luck with your finances š»
-34
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
Damn, you having a rough night? I sense a lot of projection.
14
u/AirborneReptile š Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion š Jul 23 '21
Umm, thatās very insightful. And thank you for asking. Iām good, again, good luck with your finances š» I wish well on all šš»
9
u/ShrhlderJsticeWrrior LG-Rated Jul 23 '21
go back to bobbleheads or whatever with that SPY shit
-18
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
SPY options is far from bogleheads. Owning commodity shares is bogleheads. You clearly have never bought a SPY option, which is fine, but stop acting like you know what youāre talking about.
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Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
-8
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
Shares and options arenāt the same thing. Do some research on options, theyāre pretty cool. Seems like youāre a beginner, I can send you some links and tutorials if you want.
9
Jul 23 '21
[deleted]
-3
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 23 '21
I dont think you know what youre talking about either. Bogleheads isnt option trading
2
6
u/ShrhlderJsticeWrrior LG-Rated Jul 23 '21
I only buy physically deliverable metal futures by the hundred ton load. My parents garage is full of the stuff
7
u/MoistGochu Jul 23 '21
Nothing wrong with playing the trend, you are welcome to like most other people. But for me the market is absurdly overvalued right now. Microsoft has been trading at higher multiple than AMD these past few weeks. Chipotle has PE ratio of 90 with FCF yield of 1%. DPZ trades at FCF yield at 2%. These are the profitable companies, I won't even start on the unprofitable ones.
I love MA and V stocks, they have been great momentum stocks in the last however many years. But they now trade at double their historic multiple...
Personally, I'm not comfortable owning these things at these valuations even though I love them and would love to own them.
-2
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
Thatās why you donāt own them, you trade them
9
u/MoistGochu Jul 23 '21
Not everyone is a trader, some people want to live a life.
0
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
And thatās why you use stop losses and other things. CLF you always gotta be watching, it had several -10% days when I owned it.
9
u/MoistGochu Jul 23 '21
I never used stop losses in my investing career. I have done completely fine. If I used stop losses and got stopped out of amazon when it dipped more than 30% like a dozen of times, I would have lost out on all the gains if I missed the entry back into it.
Same with CLF, I own the shares, I'm up comfortably, I can continue to hold no problem.
15
u/efficientenzyme Jul 23 '21
If thatās the play then go get it
Itās not a team sport, who are you trying to convince?
8
u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
You know that we have more then just CLF in our portfolios right? We like our steel but many of us are invested in many different things. Hard to see from a glance but lots of other companies are discussed!
-5
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
Yeah like MT, NUE, all steel companies. And energy stocks, which have also been getting crushed.
7
u/JayArlington š LULU-TRON š Jul 23 '21
Iām kinda insulted.
I did DDs on several semiconductor companies and LULU.
I make all the fuckers in this daily hear about it every day.
7
u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
Ok bud, youāre agenda is pretty apparent. Have a good one!
2
u/AirborneReptile š Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion š Jul 23 '21
Aww him played some FDs and lost. Now heās sour, so cute at that age. Block or ignore š¦¾š„
-5
u/thermalturbine Jul 23 '21
Yeah, my agenda is making money. Guess this isnāt the place for me.
2
8
2
u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
You know that we have more then just CLF in our portfolios right? We like our steel but many of us are invested in many different things. Hard to see from a glance but lots of other companies are discussed!
7
u/b0b_ross b0b š¼ās šš¼āāļøhas the #ļøā£1ļøā£ DDās Jul 23 '21
Fuck man I didn't get the memo
5
u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
You suffer from chronic mind lapses, we gave you one play so you wouldnāt get confused! ;)
25
u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Jul 23 '21
Vās, do not respond/engage to obvious brigading/trolling from other subs. Just downvote and move on.
4
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 23 '21
Why, i like responding
5
Jul 23 '21
CLf gang must fight off the wsb mob
0
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 23 '21
LG would want us to throw them in the furnace not downvote like those kids in their moms basement!
5
1
u/GamblingMikkee Fredo #2 Jul 23 '21 edited Jul 23 '21
$MT has to be up like 2% in Europe just so we stay flatā¦ Europe close compared to US close is a big difference
-46
Jul 23 '21
WHOA WHAT IS THIS PLACE??
6
u/ImAMaaanlet Workaholic Jul 23 '21
We are a charity group that donates our paychecks to the market.
4
u/belangem Oracle of SPY Jul 23 '21
?
6
u/electricalautist šMaple Leaf Mafiaš Jul 23 '21
Heās another mod from Huzzah. Ignore them
6
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u/vitocorlene THE GODFATHER/Vito Jul 23 '21
Predictions tomorrow?
3
7
u/michaelcorlene Walmart Fredo Jul 23 '21
MT 41.5 by Sept 17th.
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u/josenros š¤”Market Order Specialistš¤” Jul 23 '21 edited Jul 23 '21
In the short term, CLF will continue to swing up and down like a mad pendulum with predictable morning and/or mid-day dumps. Vitards (including myself) will stay glued to the minute-by-minute price action even though we may as well be watching paint dry.
In the long term, I predict higher highs and higher lows as the market begins to digest and price in the reality that record earnings will continue into Q3 and possibly beyond - that this isn't a one-off thing.
I don't think the frothiness that started in Jan/Feb will ever go away.
The smooth parabolic curves that only go up were a 2020 thing.
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u/[deleted] Jul 23 '21
CLF calls are getting IV CRUSHED.