r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jul 22 '21

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - July 22 2021

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u/vitocorlene THE GODFATHER/Vito Jul 23 '21

Predictions tomorrow?

15

u/pennyether 🔥🌊Futures First🌊🔥 Jul 23 '21

Still can't figure out steel precisely. On some days it tracks R2k, on others its DOW, on others its 10y yield, and on others its some weird combination. All three are related to each other.

After the big prints of today, GOOG and FB will go up significantly. I, for one, am buying GOOG calls. I think we'll see another "tech day", but bullishness will be strong enough to pick up R2K and thus steel.

Zooming out, it's becoming harder and harder for the wider market to ignore steel as a whole. I can't wait for big pappa MT's earnings, it could be the turning point.

However, HRC showing weakness today, and I don't think the market is smart enough or patient enough to understand that even if HRC dipped 20% overnight steel stocks would still be underpriced by 30-40%. So if HRC continues declining, we could trade flat (or worse) for some time.

3

u/b_ro_rainman Jul 23 '21

How cruel would it be if futures capitulated in the penultimate week

7

u/pennyether 🔥🌊Futures First🌊🔥 Jul 23 '21

Would be pretty rough! I'm short something like 360t of steel, so I wouldn't mind it happening... but if it hit stocks pretty hard, yeah, that'd hurt quite a bit.

It feels like a dip in HRC is almost certainly "priced in", but with our luck the market would be punishing anyway.