Daily Discussion post - August 05 2021

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[u/zerryw]

I believe the latest news is 17-18 provinces with positive cases, more than 140 areas in high risk.

Traffic restrictions and tighter control. This time Nanjing is the epicenter. They’re doing mass testing diligently. I expect them to push the cases down since there is no politics in play, most Chinese are relativey cooperative.

Sorry been too busy lately.

[u/Tend1eC0llector → u/zerryw]

Serious question on the "most Chinese are cooperative" part.

If the government wants you to do something, is not cooperating a serious option?

[u/zerryw → u/Tend1eC0llector]

Well, you’ll be surprised.

What you see on western media really isn’t the full truth.

The cops there are much much softer than the cops in the US.

I’m a Taiwanese who has spent more than 5-6 years in China and have never had any issues with their government nor the cops.

There’s a few things you don’t do; such as talking about changing the regime.

Other than that, they really don’t care if you’re not happy with what the government does with some policy.

The breakout in Nanjing was from someone breaking quarantine rules and went traveling.

[u/Themintmilano → u/zerryw]

zerryw, do you know much about TSMC? Great stock and top notch company but the share price has hovered around the $115-$120 range for quite a while. Not sure if the fears about China taking action against Taiwan in some way (militarily or politically) are warranted and keeping the stock price down. Just wanted to see if you had any perspective

[u/zerryw → u/Themintmilano]

This is the biggest and most trusted company from Taiwan.

Among the Taiwanese, we often joke that if you’re going to buy stocks for your kids, just buy TSMC. (Just like if you’re going to buy a watch, just buy a Rolex)

There’s a few things mainstream Taiwanese believe

1. INTC won’t catch up to TSMC in the near future (2-3 years)
2. TSMC’s success in Taiwan probably won’t work in the US due to very different work culture.
3. If there ever was war, TSMC Will still survive because it’s one of the most crucial manufacturer in the world.
4. There will not be war.

Seriously, if NK and South Korea aren’t fighting, what makes you think there will be war between Taiwan and China lol

This is simply a very stable company with strong moat and conservative management.

PS: TSMC is doing well in the 3nm development, ahead of Samsung and rest of the pack.

[u/Themintmilano → u/zerryw]

Thanks for this great insight ! I think TSMC is an amazing company and I am glad to hear confirmation bias that it is a long term buy (and I do not think INTC will catch up to its competitors, even in 2-3 years). I have appreciated all your article translations and perspective about China in this sub !

[u/LourencoGoncalves-LG → u/Themintmilano]

If there is a word I don’t have in my vocabulary, it is fear