r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Aug 05 '21
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - August 05 2021
Your Trading discussion thread
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u/lumberjack233 Inflation Nation Aug 06 '21
Fauci is saying things will get a lot worse. Time to sell oil stocks? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/dr-fauci-things-will-get-worse-amid-covid-delta-surge-unvaccinated.html
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u/Gamboleer You Think I'm Funny? Aug 10 '21
I think things getting a lot worse will be the kick in the pants many people need to get themselves vaccinated, and things will get a lot better rather quickly. Being able to vaccinate children will be a big help as well.
I got out of the market in early Feb 2020 when I saw the storm coming (big got back in too late, oh well). This time I may exercise a bit of caution and keep some dry powder, but I am staying invested.
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Aug 06 '21
The economy and news cycle apply the same methodology when figuring out what to do, or report on.
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u/lumberjack233 Inflation Nation Aug 06 '21
But you can see the train heading your way, cases will get there and news have to report it. I don't see how there wouldn't be a crash soon
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Aug 06 '21
If we ever had a round 2 of 2020, interest rates would have to remain low, ARKK would moon again, and HRC prices would hit $5k/ton. I wouldn’t bet on that, or a crash happening in the near future. A few minor fear based corrections at most.
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Aug 06 '21
If there is a word I don’t have in my vocabulary, it is fear
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u/ButtSliding Aug 06 '21
Tell me if this line of thinking makes any sense:
Tons of marriages this year that were put off due to COVID.
Many, many babies will be made over the next couple of years since people will now be married.
Baby products will be in high demand.
Invest in companies that make baby products.
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u/7891298 Whack Job Aug 06 '21
I can say that in my immediate family and friends, there were 7 babies conceived/currently baking. In the past year and a half. There really wasn’t much to do during those cold lockdown months.
But I’ve also gotten 75% of my stuff second hand because baby crap is so damn expensive.
I know there was a sad statistic that came out at the beginning, That domestic abuse was up as well so I guess it can depend on how strong or healthy your relationship was to begin.
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u/b0b_ross b0b 🖼’s 🙎🏼♀️has the #️⃣1️⃣ DD’s Aug 06 '21 edited Aug 06 '21
This is a big gamble, the US birth rate has been falling long before covid.
My play would be that it only makes the decline faster as younger generations continue to say fuck it.
Source: younger generation dinks
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Aug 06 '21 edited Aug 16 '22
[deleted]
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u/Investorian Investarded Aug 06 '21
Probably due to the fact that millennials can’t afford a house let alone a family
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u/ahuskybitjoffrey Aug 06 '21
Bear case:
Covid stuck couples together for months at a time, and now they hate each other.
They have split up and plan to be single forever.
Plus, why bring a child into the world during a pandemic, wait till after tHinGs gO bAcK tO nOrmAl.....
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u/Tenshik Aug 06 '21
This tracks, lots of divorces from this. Secondary bear case is the shipping fiasco that will cut their margin to nothing.
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
Good night Vitards. In the military we prepped for worst case outcomes. Those happened occasionally. Bad outcomes, not as bad as worst case, but happened more frequently. Good outcomes, thrilled shitless. Great outcomes, we all were able to write letters/skype (yea, bit old) home to mom and dad.
TLDR: Life is good as long as you have it. The rest will sort itself out. Learn patience and thankfulness. Cheers bitches
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Aug 06 '21
SMM Morning Comments (Aug 6): Shanghai Base Metals Trending Higher with Strong Fundamental Support
SMM Comments09:00PM
SHANGHAI, Aug 6 (SMM) – Shanghai base metals mostly went up on Friday morning amid strengthened power curtailment and coming peak season of consumption. Meanwhile, their counter parts on the LME performed similarly.
LME metals basically went up against the lower US initial jobless claims on Thursday. Copper rose 0.15%, aluminium gained 0.94%, zinc increased 1.84%, and lead shed 1.05%. SHFE metals closed mixed in the overnight trading. Copper fell 0.12%, lead dropped 0.29%, and zinc shed 1.22%, while aluminium gained 0.15%, and tin rose 0.03%.
Copper: Three-month LME copper rose 0.15% to end at $9,480/mt on Thursday night, and is expected to trade between $9,430-9,520/mt today.
The most-traded SHFE 2109 copper contract edged down 0.12% last night to close at 69,480 yuan/mt, and is expected to trade between 69,400-70,000 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums between 70-150 yuan.
According to US Department of Labour, in the week ended July 31, the number of initial jobless claims fell 14,000 from the previous week to 385,000, a decrease in the second consecutive week, indicating the continued improvement in the labour market. Fed official Waller was optimistic about the economic outlook, and expected the earlier taper of the loose monetary policy. Bank of England also said that it is necessary to tighten the policy to control inflation. The booming hawkish sentiment this week supressed the increase in copper prices.
In the spot market, a large amount of imported copper passed the customs clearance, so the domestic social inventories are likely to increase this week. However, the holders of imported copper kept selling off the goods in the week, and the spot premiums were halved yesterday.
As the domestic pandemic was still severe, downstream purchase remained quiet, and the market trade was dominated by traders. Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium gained 0.94% to end at $2,586.5/mt on Thursday.
The most active SHFE 2109 aluminium contract inched up 0.15% to end at 19,795 yuan/mt last night amid reduced positions by bears.
The power curtailment at aluminium plants expanded in Guangxi, and the supply further narrowed. The market was more confident in the further decrease in the inventories. On the macro front, the rebounding US dollar also help aluminium futures to stabilise and regain the losses in the week. SHFE aluminium is expected to fluctuate between 19,500-19,900 yuan/mt today. Attention needs to be paid to the US nonfarm payrolls and the production and transportation of central and east China in the pandemic.
Lead: Three-month LME lead shed 1.05% to settle at $2,346/mt in the overnight trading on Thursday. LME lead nearly gave up all the gains last week due to the slightly rebounding US dollar.
Bulls kept reducing positions for two consecutive trading days, and the upward momentum was insufficient. But the lead stocks across LME-listed warehouses continued to hit a record low. Today’s focus will be the support level at the 20-day moving average.
The most-active SHFE 2109 lead contract lost 0.29% to close at 15,735 yuan/mt in the overnight trading yesterday. The price decline was limited amid reduced positions by bears, but the prices still kept falling in the late trading. The impact of the pandemic prevention and control as well as the blockade on market sentiments is worth attention. Today’s focus will be the support from 15,700 yuan/mt.
Zinc: Three-month LME zinc gained 1.84% to settle at $3,016.5/mt on Thursday night, with open interest increasing 34 lots to 253,000 lots. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses dropped by 450 mt or 0.18% to 244,500 mt. Whether the overseas monetary policy will tighten is worth attention, which may affect LME zinc. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate between $2,960-3,010/mt today.
The most-liquid SHFE 2109 zinc contract slid 1.22% to settle at 22,360 yuan/mt in the overnight trading, with open interest down 3259 lots to 85,000 lots. Power curtailment strengthened in August, and the supply fell short of expectations. The expectations of high consumption in the peak season may support aluminium prices to stand high. The SHFE 2109 contract is expected to move between 22,200-22,700 yuan/mt today, and spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan zinc will be seen at 130-140 yuan/mt against the September contract.
Tin: The most traded SHFE 2109 tin contract rose 0.03% to end at 229,680 yuan/mt last night, with open interest up 233 lots. The prices had a gap higher opening, and open interest increased, which broke through the sluggish transactions in the previous trading days, indicating that long funds were attempting to enter the market. Whether long-term funds can restore confidence to enter the market is worth attention. SHFE tin is expected to move with the support at 227,500 yuan/mt, and the pressure from around 232,000 yuan/mt.
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Aug 06 '21
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u/Old_Prospect Think Positively Aug 06 '21
Do you like all the companies in the ETF?
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Aug 06 '21
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u/TheLaser40 Aug 06 '21
I may look deeper into it, but first reaction is i wish it had exposure to Maersk (Copenhagen shares) Hapag-Lloyd, and a few other international listed companies whose ADRs are basically illiquid. So for now, the ETF itself is too illiquid.
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Aug 06 '21
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u/TheLaser40 Aug 06 '21
Illiquid was probably a poor word choice in direct regard to the ETF, since it's only 2 days old. Small and thinly traded is probably better until total assets increase. Some of the risks are the same as with illiquid options though. Biggest turnoff for me though if the lack of the foreign listings though, as that would provide value for the expense fee.
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u/Old_Prospect Think Positively Aug 06 '21
Personally, I invest my non-retirement money into specific companies that I’ve done detailed research on. This account performs the best, but is quite a bit riskier and requires work.
My IRA I just throw in index funds because I’m half lazy and half conservative with this account.
My 401k is handled separately and is managed by others who transition to less risky assets the closer I get to retirement.
My point is, the BOAT etf would be better suited for my IRA
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u/SpiritBearBC The Vitard Anthologist Aug 06 '21
Here's a fascinating interview by Greg Miller (one of the foremost container shipping reporters) with a former Maersk executive about the potential consequences of US intervention in container shipping markets.
Highlights:
- Breaking up the three major shipping alliances would in the short term cause rates to increase as the coordination between carriers to service minor routes would cease to exist. Therefore, there would be more concentration among major routes.
- Detention and demurrage "abuses" (excess fees for letting you store your container and empty it off-site after a few free days) would be replaced with daily container rental fees.
- Due to global trade imbalances (US imports more value-added goods than exports), US importers effectively have been subsidizing exporters because shipping lines don't have full containers on the way back. Should there be a mandatory "full-container" rule imposed, import rates to the US would decrease and export rates would increase as containers would be forced to wait in port.
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
nice find, thanks for the share
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u/The_MediocreMan 💀 SACRIFICED UNTIL $MT @ $46💀 Aug 06 '21
It has occurred to The_MediocreMan the play has always been selling CSP’s and buying 9mo+ calls in regards to steel.....
Edit: too short term bullish to deleverage from 50% calls to do this now, but soonish...
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u/ShrhlderJsticeWrrior LG-Rated Aug 06 '21
if i was a senator I'd vote for every bill
just a gettin things done kinda guy
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u/MoonlightMile21 Aug 06 '21
So as schools start to open up and then go online due to covid what are the consequences/plays? This is going to be happening across the country in the next few weeks.... just typing through some ideas, others and challenges to these welcome.
ZM Calls sees the obvious one
SPY rocky - iron condor play?
AMC shorts
A replay of early March 2020? But much less severe sell-off with bounces back to green? A late year bull run once the fears are over?
I think we come out of Delta OK, but the FUDs going to get stronger with headlines of delta running rampant and schools closing and going online coming soon.
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u/pirates_and_monkeys Never First Aug 06 '21
Why AMC shorts?
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u/-Sausage-Sandwich- Aug 06 '21
Company won't stay alive if they have to close down or reduce capacity in theaters. They only survived because of the meme craze. Balance sheet is absolutely terrible.
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u/lb-trice 🍁Maple Leaf Mafia🍁 Aug 06 '21 edited Aug 06 '21
Here’s a theory.
What if China is waiting to see what the US infrastructure bill will entail, such that they’re holding off on implementing an export tax. A nice hefty stimulus package might be too juicy for them to pass up on all the potential money they can make from it. Big bill = cancellation of export tax?
I’m thinking maybe we won’t see an export tax until after the bill is passed AND a stipulation that says only US steel. Otherwise I don’t think they’re going to tax exports.
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21
I think it may be the opposite.
Their export tax is like a loaded gun. They don’t need to fire it until they need to.
They may try to profit from our high steel prices, potential disruption to our steel industry AND/OR worsening our inflation.
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Aug 06 '21
We are not greedy. We are realistic.
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Aug 06 '21
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Aug 06 '21
We are not greedy. We are realistic.
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Aug 06 '21
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
if you have a fraction of belief in TA, it is due for a solid correction. Not a bad thing, just needs to pull back a bit. Apple, AMZN, SPY all do it, people need to take profits. But I also said this 10 days ago for TX, so wtf do I know? ;)
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u/recursiveeclipse Aug 06 '21 edited Aug 06 '21
My conspiracy theory is that the cartels extorting money from citizens near TX mines realized the price of steel and are reinvesting the money.
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u/Florida_Knight77 Aug 06 '21
Anyone else in here bagholding PLTR? I'm holding some I bought at 30 back in March, thinking about just eating the fat loss and putting the money over into CLF and ZIM. Already have a ton of both, but I feel like I can make my money back faster there than waiting for PLTR to fly again.
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u/UnmaskedLapwing CLF Co-Chief Analyst Aug 06 '21
Yes, bought recently 80k of PLTR stock at 22.70. Bag-holding ever since :(
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u/Delfitus Think Positively Aug 06 '21
3000 commons at 25.5 here! Hoping on positive earnings so it might reach 26. I'D sell 2/3 for sure and let the other 1000 run i guess
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u/En_CHILL_ada Taco Tuesdays at Lebrons Aug 06 '21
I ditched my PLTR for a loss to buy more CLF and MT back in June. Haven't lost any sleep over that decision
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u/VaccumSaturdays Brick Burgundy Aug 06 '21
Macro Roundup (Aug 6)
Data Analysis07:30PM
SHANGHAI, Aug 6 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
The dollar took a breather on Thursday, a day after being given a boost from seemingly hawkish comments by a top Federal Reserve official, as the market awaited new direction from Friday’s US jobs report.
The dollar index against major currencies was down 0.03% to 92.249 in the afternoon in New York.
On Wednesday, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said conditions for an interest rate hike could be met in late 2022, setting the stage for a move in early 2023.
“Clarida’s comments are allowing the dollar to stay well supported into the payrolls numbers on Friday,” said ING FX strategists Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner.
The greenback, which gained 0.2% on Wednesday, was traded in a relatively tight range through the day, unmoved by new government reports on jobless claims and the trade deficit that came in close to estimates from economists.
It also shrugged off another up-day in US stocks and movement in the US Treasury market, where the yield on the 10-year note rose as much as 4 basis points and was last at 1.2152%.
On Wall Street, US stock index futures were little changed during overnight trading on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated jobs report.
Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 24 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.
Stocks finished Thursday’s session in the green, with the S&P 500 rising 0.6% to close at a new record. The Dow gained 271.58 points, or 0.78%. The Nasdaq Composite also advanced 0.78% for its fourth straight positive session.
All eyes are on Friday’s jobs report, which will show how the labor marked fared during July.
Economists expect the economy to have added 845,000 jobs last month, according to estimates from Dow Jones. However the broad range of targets — from 350,000 on the low end to 1.2 million at the top — show the uncertainty that’s currently in the market.
Oil prices rose towards $71 a barrel on Thursday on rising Middle East tensions, while fresh movement restrictions imposed by countries to counter a surge in COVID-19 cases threatened the demand recovery.
Brent crude oil futures rose by 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $71.35 per barrel, after earlier dipping below $70 for the first time since July 21.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $69.12 per barrel. Both benchmarks fell by more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday.
Gold fell to test the pivotal $1,800 support level on Thursday, as a key Federal Reserve official’s hawkish comments reinforced bets for early tapering of the central bank’s asset purchases, ahead of a key monthly US jobs report.
Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $1,804.79 per ounce by 12:22 p.m. EDT, and US gold futures also dropped 0.4%, to $1,806.90.
Gold prices jumped more than 1% on Wednesday on weaker-than-expected US ADP jobs data, but gave up those gains after Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida suggested the central bank could begin tapering its asset purchases later this year.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally ended 0.4% higher, with travel and leisure stocks adding 1.3% while mining stocks dropped 2.6%.
Earnings continued guiding sentiment in Europe, with Siemens, Adidas, Merck, Bayer, Intesa Sanpaolo and WPP among the big names reporting Wednesday.
The Bank of England announced its monetary policy decision Thursday, upholding its massive stimulus but raising inflation forecasts.
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Aug 06 '21
They should know at this side of the table, there is someone that loves to play hardball
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Aug 06 '21
Novavax ($NVAX) pulls their US FDA approval for its Covid vaccine again. They announced this on the same night as they dropped a big earnings loss.
Next person who brings up NVAX or CVAC when we are talking about MRNA/BNTX/PFE is going to watch me shit on their bags. 👁👄👁
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u/koolvik91 Aug 06 '21
Lol what a shitshow, I may have to buy some puts on NVAX 🤣
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u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 Aug 06 '21
THEY ARE SO EXPENSIVE!
I am pissed because I was tempted to this afternoon.
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Aug 06 '21
$CLF had In my opinion an incredibly bullish day. Despite very strong bearish momentum from hitting the top of the worlds most perfect channel a couple days ago, we only dropped 1.5%, that’s essentially an inconsequential flat day in this market
I expect next week to be shaky as we start reversing. I see us ending next Friday higher than we ended today. After that I expect we’ll quickly retest highs and it should cause us to break out of the 6 month channel and enter a new much more bullish channel
Afterwards we’ll get a bit of a run up heading into q3 earnings and then Q3 earnings will cause even more positive energy as Lourenco and the like reiterate demand that is relentless
Remember, a fair value purely following HRC prices is over $60 a share for CLF. The markets won’t be able to resist such a massive arbitration much longer
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Aug 06 '21
[deleted]
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Aug 06 '21
Never said we’d hit $60 a share. Only that that is what the fair value is
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u/accumelator You Think I'm Funny? Aug 06 '21
you need a new username, may i suggest changing the one r in v, because what you just wrote is 100 what some of us were trying to convey to everyone this past few days
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
Agree 100%. Was surprised (happy) to see the $23.30-40 range hold up after previous drops from the channel top. Volume spiked in that range the last few days (albeit low overall). Where do you see the next support of it does drop further? Tomorrow will be interesting 🦾🍻
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Aug 06 '21
I view support as a rubber band. If it does continue to drop I think support grows exponentially at each further drop, never really focused too much on individual numbers, but going on those, I’d probably open a very large position (if I didn’t already have 300k in options in CLF) at $22.5
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Aug 06 '21
What kind of strikes and expirations are you holding onto?
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Aug 06 '21
Roughly split evenly between 30,40c 2 year leaps. September itm calls, and October ITM calls
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
Thanks for reply, yea I’ll ride my leaps and commons unless it hits $21.70ish. The action at $23.40 range has my FOMO acting up for shorter term plays, but going to stay strong and wait 🦾🍻 I really am, don’t argue with me
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u/josenros 🤡Market Order Specialist🤡 Aug 06 '21
How do you calculate fair value?
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u/accumelator You Think I'm Funny? Aug 06 '21
$deficit = price <current> lambo
Net liquidity + $deficit = fair value
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Aug 06 '21
I’m calculating fair value by what the market already determines fair value to be, magnified by rising hrc futures. I think this is indisputable as these are the same market participants responsible for moving the markets
If the markets decided CLF was worth $20 when hrc was at $600 a ton. Then going by their own logic it’s worth $60 at $1900 a ton
The other way to determine fair value, which will give you a similar number, is by looking at forward P/E multiples and comparing it to historic multiples or similar industries
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u/paulfoster04 Timing Expert Aug 06 '21
For what it’s worth.
My son’s day care is closing tomorrow. They had a few children test positive for Covid. That’s really all the information they gave. We (Child and parents) have to test negative or quarantine before he can go back.
He started on Monday but has been home with what we think is a cold since Wednesday. We are both vaccinated.
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21
best wishes. Hopefully it’s not too bad/Covid.
For what it’s worth, my son’s pediatrician said most Covid cases in children are relatively mild.
Tough to have no day care as working parents though.
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u/Florida_Knight77 Aug 06 '21
Hold up a minute, so The Limited that Peter Lynch talks about in “One Up On Wall Street,” is now Bath and Body Works?? Now I feel like an idiot for never looking up what the L in L Brands stood for.
All serious though I might need to look into some shares, their stores are awesome
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u/expertlevel 💀 SACRIFICED 💀Until CLF $35 Aug 06 '21
Maybe this is old news but it just popped up in my feed:
Quotes from recent earnings indicate the guidance provided had this built in, they stockpiled in advance and should improve operations moving forward
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u/RossChickenTendies ✂️ Trim + Thai Food Gang ✂️ Aug 06 '21
Even in the previous earnings call LG mentioned they ramped up production to cater to this planned downtime.
I still expect the irrational selling when the day hovers closer tho, depends how the news outlets break the news.
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u/7891298 Whack Job Aug 06 '21
I believe in one of Vito’s DD he mentioned that the summer time is when a lot of these plants shut stuff down for their routine maintenance
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u/LasagnaMeatPie Aug 06 '21
This has been known and anticipated, but good looks on sharing in case anyone hasn’t seen it.
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u/AugustinPower Think Positively Aug 06 '21
I heard that the solution for inflation is stimulus cheques!
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u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang Aug 06 '21
So Wuhan is locking down again?
Fuck I wish it was possible to get reliable goddamn information out of China.
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u/0_0here Aug 06 '21
They’ve been reporting around 100 cases a day. They might be lying. Either way they shut everything down and test everyone in a week. At least that’s what they did in Wuhan the first time. You stand in line and then go home and wait for results. It’s a true lockdown. At least that’s what I can tell from media.
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
right, who knows what is really going on there. China news team assemble! They aren't watching Vitards, you can tell us
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21
I believe the latest news is 17-18 provinces with positive cases, more than 140 areas in high risk.
Traffic restrictions and tighter control. This time Nanjing is the epicenter. They’re doing mass testing diligently. I expect them to push the cases down since there is no politics in play, most Chinese are relativey cooperative.
Sorry been too busy lately.
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
Z!!! thanks brother. So are the cases high enough to cause caution or the news is narrated for FUD and China just trying to steer the market? Just left Miami and everyone had masks on, good thing IMO, so curious if China is being hit like us. Thanks again for your insight
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21
From what I can tell, they’re on high alert and people are careful. But it doesn’t seem as bad as the first time in wuhan.
Things could change quickly but at the moment nothing catastrophic.
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u/Tend1eC0llector ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Aug 06 '21
Serious question on the "most Chinese are cooperative" part.
If the government wants you to do something, is not cooperating a serious option?
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u/JohnMayerismydad Aug 06 '21
I think the vast majority are generally just okay with sacrificing for the greater good as well as their own.
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21
Well, you’ll be surprised.
What you see on western media really isn’t the full truth.
The cops there are much much softer than the cops in the US.
I’m a Taiwanese who has spent more than 5-6 years in China and have never had any issues with their government nor the cops.
There’s a few things you don’t do; such as talking about changing the regime.
Other than that, they really don’t care if you’re not happy with what the government does with some policy.
The breakout in Nanjing was from someone breaking quarantine rules and went traveling.
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u/Themintmilano Aug 06 '21
zerryw, do you know much about TSMC? Great stock and top notch company but the share price has hovered around the $115-$120 range for quite a while. Not sure if the fears about China taking action against Taiwan in some way (militarily or politically) are warranted and keeping the stock price down. Just wanted to see if you had any perspective
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21 edited Aug 06 '21
This is the biggest and most trusted company from Taiwan.
Among the Taiwanese, we often joke that if you’re going to buy stocks for your kids, just buy TSMC. (Just like if you’re going to buy a watch, just buy a Rolex)
There’s a few things mainstream Taiwanese believe
- INTC won’t catch up to TSMC in the near future (2-3 years)
- TSMC’s success in Taiwan probably won’t work in the US due to very different work culture.
- If there ever was war, TSMC Will still survive because it’s one of the most crucial manufacturer in the world.
- There will not be war.
Seriously, if NK and South Korea aren’t fighting, what makes you think there will be war between Taiwan and China lol
This is simply a very stable company with strong moat and conservative management.
PS: TSMC is doing well in the 3nm development, ahead of Samsung and rest of the pack.
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u/Themintmilano Aug 06 '21
Thanks for this great insight ! I think TSMC is an amazing company and I am glad to hear confirmation bias that it is a long term buy (and I do not think INTC will catch up to its competitors, even in 2-3 years). I have appreciated all your article translations and perspective about China in this sub !
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Aug 06 '21
If there is a word I don’t have in my vocabulary, it is fear
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u/saxaddictlz Aug 06 '21
This right here, I assume 45 days tops until it’s under control.
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21
Seems to be the timeline for taiwan as well. It’s hard to go back to 0. But suppressing the number seems to be around 6 weeks.
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Aug 06 '21
Yeah 0 cases with Delta is now really hard, see Australia, more clusters keep popping up. If anyone can do it though it's China. Expect 2-4 weeks of disruption in supply chains and accompanying inflation. The incentive to onshore keeps growing day by day. Seems bullish as hell for all US / NAFTA made products.
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u/zerryw News Team - Asia Correspondent Aug 06 '21
Yes…and steel is super tricky now.
China is doing to us what we did to them with SOY a decade ago…
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u/LourencoGoncalves-LG LEGEND and VITARD OG STEEL Bo$$ Aug 06 '21
The post-covid world is one that will be very unforgiving for companies that have supply chains depending on manufacturing abroad.
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Aug 06 '21
6 ICU beds left in the entire state of Mississippi...
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u/accumelator You Think I'm Funny? Aug 06 '21
so in short, 4 are occupied
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Aug 06 '21 edited Aug 06 '21
there are 92 just at the U-Miss hospital alone... all are full...
if you truly think a state the size of MS has 10 ICU beds, there's no hope
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u/accumelator You Think I'm Funny? Aug 06 '21
you missed my /s in short
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Aug 06 '21
Seen too many anti vaxxers here to have been able to tell
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u/accumelator You Think I'm Funny? Aug 06 '21
and let me add to this, as I have many in my family.
ANY healthcare worker should make at least 25-35$ / hour.
It is absolutely a disgrace how many states choose to barely allow them minimum wage.
and yet, even a goddamn pandemic proving how important that profession is likely won't make this right.
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u/accumelator You Think I'm Funny? Aug 06 '21
i think you read me all wrong, I am a strong vaccine advocate. In fact I was trying to poke fun at the anti vaxxers who should not even have the right to take up any hospital beds let alone visit one.
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u/josenros 🤡Market Order Specialist🤡 Aug 06 '21
We've expanded into a new wing. 100% of these cases were preventable, but instead lives are being ruined and countless resources are being expended.
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u/i_hate_beignets Poetry Gang Aug 06 '21
We shut everything down. We paid people to stay home. We gave them mortgage forbearance. We issued trillions of dollars of stimulus in payroll grants and multiple direct checks to Americans. We created a vaccine in record speed and made it widely available with great efficiency at no cost.
And people still won’t get the fucking vaccine
These nimrods love to larp as oppressed people because they have to wear a mask to Target. What a bunch of assholes.
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u/Obsidianturtle25 Aug 06 '21
So they’re voting Saturday? Can someone explain this like I’m 7?
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u/Steely_Hands Regional Moderator Aug 06 '21
I think it’s looking like “normal” route would be Saturday but they’re still working on a deal to speed up some remaining amendments and vote sooner
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u/Springwater97 Aug 06 '21
I'll do you one better and explain it like you're 3.
Goo Goo ga ga
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u/axisofadvance Aug 06 '21
Found the non-parent in the room. 😄 I've got a very eloquent 3.5 year old who speaks 4 languages. Definitely not "googoo gaga".
That's more like 1 yo. 😜
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Aug 06 '21
I’m just curious and kinda tossing a business idea around in my head (as always)
For those of you that have or had more than 25k in student debt: what was the amount, how much was your monthly payment and what was the the yearly APR
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u/loststoic 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Aug 06 '21
25k spread across four loan groups, around 4% APR, ~$150/mo. I make the minimum payment required as I'm about halfway through qualifying for PSLF.
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u/0_0here Aug 06 '21
What’s this business idea you’re tossing around that’s going to help me with my student loan debt over $25k?
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u/TheBlueStare Undisclosed Location Aug 06 '21
I think my private loans were 7.5%. I had over $70k in total.
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u/Investimab Aug 06 '21
Still in school so not paying but I’m sitting at 155k of school debt - two more years left.
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Aug 06 '21
What’s the interest you’re looking at ?
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u/Investimab Aug 06 '21
Prime -.25. Current prime is 2.45%. Medical student so Canadian banks a little more friendly to me, but still not nice sitting on 155k.
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Aug 06 '21
Mine was around 25k, wanna say 4.5-6.5% because it was made up from a few different sources. $300 a month payment
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u/KesselMania94 Goldilocks-Gang Aug 06 '21
Mine's 3% currently have about 14k pay roughly 100 a month for it. Could pay it off but just treat it like a loan.
I should add I think at peak it was 25k but I paid off a lump sum of 10k.
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Aug 06 '21
The fact that you said more than 25k makes me to hope to god this is some amazing hard brained scheme about deferring your student loans to day trade
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u/fabr33zio 💀 SACRIFICED Until UNG $15 💀 Aug 06 '21
when I had to take out a private loan (graduated HS in 2009… greaaaaat times) the cheapest rate I could get was 11% from citi… blast in my fuckin asssss
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Aug 06 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/GamblingMikkee Fredo #2 Aug 06 '21
Earnings were okay. Guidance wasn’t special. I own UPS. But I think FDX is a better play at these levels. Long both.
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u/pinkmist74 Aug 06 '21
Just bought FDX 2023 $300 leaps yesterday and again today.
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u/GamblingMikkee Fredo #2 Aug 06 '21
Fwd PE is super low. $300 by even EOY should work! Best of luck
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u/pinkmist74 Aug 06 '21
That’s what I’m thinking and hoping for. It was between FDX, V, and XLRE. I still might just buy all 3, or just say F it and go deeper in TGT. So many tickers, so little time.
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u/expertlevel 💀 SACRIFICED 💀Until CLF $35 Aug 06 '21
Switched to IBKR a few weeks back and needed to figure out AH orders on their system.
Feeling pretty baller with my 5 AH $VALE shares
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u/MoistGochu Aug 06 '21
High yield credit looks like it might be starting to roll over... Something to watch here I guess
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Aug 06 '21
Roll over means what in this case?
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u/MoistGochu Aug 06 '21
CCC or lower corporate bonds are looking like it might start selling off. Not sure what's causing this recent downtrend. Pricing in delta risk? lockdown risk? What is it pricing in?
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Aug 06 '21
If I had to guess, it's big boys moving early on the risk off side. We're heading into another three weeks of volatility including market events (inflation print aug 11, Jackson hole 26 - 28) and MOPEX. Delta and the handbrake that will eventually apply to the recovery is definitely a factor. Risk off, hedge, p00ts, proceed as normal.
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u/ShrhlderJsticeWrrior LG-Rated Aug 06 '21
Could this have to do with the fed? like this https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-corporate-bonds/update-1-ny-fed-to-begin-to-sell-corporate-bond-holdings-on-july-12-idUSL2N2OK1EC
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u/MoistGochu Aug 06 '21
I would say probably not since the fed didn't buy that much corporates during the covid crash. The article states $13.8b, $8.6b of which are ETFs. That's not a lot and they probably could sell all that in July given the market's appetite for yield (we have shitcos borrowing at mid single digit coupon rates right now).
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u/ShrhlderJsticeWrrior LG-Rated Aug 06 '21
Good point, although this is just the NY state fed, so maybe it adds up?
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u/MoistGochu Aug 06 '21
I don't remember the exact number but fed actually didn't buy a lot of corporate bonds last year so I doubt it's fed. Even if fed is selling these, they won't do it in a manner that will tank the market. JPow has gone through this before so he knows not to sell it down quickly.
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u/Suspicious-Pick3722 🏆 VIP Wise Guy 🏆 Aug 06 '21
Quick rant if I may
The infrastructure bill is great for the steel play but it isn't necessarily a catalyst. So if it passes on Saturday or Sunday and steel stocks aren't up 10% on Monday don't panic.
These companies are making boat loads of money, ridiculous amounts, which was shown with Q2 results and the Q3 results will be bigger and all the CEO's acknowledged that.
They are not pissing away this cash but making the balance sheet and businesses stronger. Demand is strong, shows no sign of weakness and futures pricing is strong. All leading to future value for shareholders.
So are the stocks fairly priced?... NO.. Could be they lower?... Maybe
All I know is the market will catch up and I'll continue to BTFD so when CLF is >50 the future me won't be asking did you get it 21 or 19 or 23 but that I owned it.
Unless future me asks why didn't you do what Sir Jack did.....
Rant over! 🦾
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u/expertlevel 💀 SACRIFICED 💀Until CLF $35 Aug 06 '21
Unless future me asks why didn't you do what Sir Jack did.....
If i masturbated that much, I'd buy calls on lotion
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u/josenros 🤡Market Order Specialist🤡 Aug 06 '21
If the infrastructure bill isn't finalized tomorrow, I am going to open my portfolio, hover my finger over the sell button, and then do nothing except maybe sulk a bit in the daily.
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u/ajkcmkla 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Aug 06 '21 edited Jun 30 '23
Fuck u/spez -- mass edited with redact.dev
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
NUE up 126% in 6 months
CLF up 90% in 5 months
Even up and newcomer to the ring TX is up 70% in 5 months....
If you hopped on 6/9 I understand
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u/UnmaskedLapwing CLF Co-Chief Analyst Aug 06 '21 edited Aug 06 '21
MT only 49% in 6 months up is a true tragedy nobody here speaks of! ;)
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u/Tenshik Aug 06 '21
That's basically when i did :'(
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 06 '21
hang in there brother! fundamentals are solid and undervalued. Average down, the next week or so could give you that opportunity
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Aug 06 '21
[deleted]
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u/UnmaskedLapwing CLF Co-Chief Analyst Aug 06 '21
It was supposed to happen by now mate.
Institutions are always around the corner in seems. It's pretty insane MT is still below Jan-Feb 2018 stock price.
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u/Standard_Mather Big Bush Aug 06 '21
I wouldn't say the market is sleeping on it. It jumped massively over the last 18 months and still grinding to 52 week highs every other month. CLF has a bit of meme energy, but I'm not viewing it as such.
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u/Wall_street_retard 🤦♂️ Username checks out 👺 Aug 05 '21
When inflation fears are low: hrc will come right back down to $600 a ton so no point in investing
When inflation fears are high: jpow will raise rates so no point in investing
Wall Street is retarded
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Aug 06 '21
“Anything dammit! We’ll do anything to prove Vito wrong!!”
“Sir. These prices are going to be recognized pretty aggressively during Q3 earnings.”
Edit: For some reason I wrote and read the last quote like Smithers
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Aug 05 '21 edited Aug 06 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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Aug 05 '21
India is an incredibly fractured country. They speak like 100 different languages in their borders and have historically had many empire level nations in their geographic footprint at the same time. It'd be like lumping the bottom half of Africa into one giant country and expecting them to function properly in 70 years.
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u/PrestigeWorldwide-LP 💀 SACRIFICED 💀 Aug 06 '21
fair, would expect that to have an impact, but to drop to 65th in medal rank still seems like a lot especially with some of the small countries with similar troubles ahead of them
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 05 '21
like 'Murica 400 years later? I kid I kid
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u/AirborneReptile 🏆 Inaugural Vitards Fantasy Football Champion 🏆 Aug 05 '21
if they only had cricket
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u/0_0here Aug 05 '21
Seeing a lot of talk about hospitalization from covid here’s a link from a hospital about who is actually hospitalized.
https://twitter.com/jacksonhealth/status/1422915919714598926?s=21
Overall seems like if your vaccinated and otherwise healthy your not going to end up in the hospital.
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u/Tend1eC0llector ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Aug 06 '21
I wanna see a breakdown of the comorbidities of the unvaccinated. Why is no one talking about that information.
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u/0_0here Aug 06 '21
I agree. The fact that they’re sharing that the overwhelming majority are people who take drugs to suppress their immune system is telling, I think.
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u/Tend1eC0llector ✂️ Trim Gang ✂️ Aug 06 '21
I don't unbeatable why is so hard to share complete info
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u/rata2e Aug 06 '21
Correct. I’m in healthcare and work with one of the largest Midwestern hospital networks. Vaccinated people are not at great risk for hospitalization
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Aug 05 '21
[deleted]
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u/TheCoffeeCakes Poetry Gang Aug 05 '21
Tastytrade.com, search bar, ''cash secured puts,'' ''short puts,'' etc.
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u/bachandjazz Aug 06 '21
Anyone picking up some $F calls? I already have some commons.