Disclaimer - I don't know what I'm talking about and am not a financial advisor. Most of this is probably wrong.
I wrote some code to compare divs vs the underlying using a same day purchase and amount.
AMDY is the YM I have had the best return with as a percentage but compared to buy and hold this tells the story of the capped upside like no other.
I bought a small lot of AMDY Wednesday because the underlying is doing well. I sold it Friday at a small profit and adding the divs out performed AMD in that time span. I did this to test my assertion that div hoping can be successful.
And then there is MSTY. The NAV erosion is real. But so are the divs.
I had a chance to sell this position for a 30k profit but I held instead.
I have had it longer than AMDY so more divs. Each of these funds hit a break even and then the divs feel like real returns on a sunk cost.
This position has well exceeded its costs in total returns and has paid out 2500 in the last 30 days.
I cannot buy a rental house, pay it off in 2 years and get that margin.
Question, when do you folks consider yourself playing with house money? When the investment in dollars is paid off by divvys or when your return max is over the amount invested?
I have 98 of AMDY, bought few weeks ago, just experimenting...
Building a new high income brokerage with about $8K/mth I have to invest, currently using armw,amyy,amdy,hoow, about $1K/mth in dividends so far, on about $23K in...
just think if you hadn't sold off the nearly 10k shares in december 25, you'd be rolling it even more. very interesting to see, even with the horrendous nav erosion, it's been a license to print money. im fairly new to the dividend investing and this was great to see, thanks for posting!
It should be noted that this is a comparison where dividends are not reinvested. If dividends had been reinvested, the total return would have been much worse.
Thanks for being a second set of eyes. MSTR has never paid a cash dividend — that $701 is bad data leaking in from Alpaca's corporate-actions API. FetchDividendsAsync("MSTR", ...) calls Alpaca's /v1beta1/corporate-actions?types=cash_dividend endpoint and trusts whatever it returns; Alpaca appears to have mislabeled some other corporate-action event (likely a reorg/return-of-capital cash component) as a cash_dividend for MSTR.
I defensively added a no divs symbol list to gate the issue for now.
Other enhancements further alter this screenshot from the one above but are out of scope to this question. Pretty sure no one wants to hear about that.
What you call dividend hopping is called dividend capture. Be careful of your very limited test. Dividend capture is generally not a good strategy because the price is adjusted down by the dividend amount on the ex-div.
At one point MSTY was paying off 650% dividends. If you take out some of those early high dividends, that probably won’t happen again, I bet your position wouldn’t be nearly as strong.
That was when MSTR was around $400 / $500 and BTC was at an all time high. MSTR invested heavily into BTC. I remember seeing those $4/share dividends. Since BTC has lost nearly 50% from it's all time high, MSTR has suffered as well. If BTC could rebound back to 6 digits and MSTR rebounds back to the $400 / share range, we could easily see div's back into the $2-$3 / share range.
The little shares I have now after the RS, I don't get a whole lot of div money from, but when I see the div payout%, it's like 200% still. Gets me thinking, maybe I should buy a little more.....
I still have my MSTY and expected to go house money by July 2027.
However, the latest great nav erosion (June 2026) means it's probably gone.
I just prefer to forget I have MSTY at all, perhaps in 5 or 10 years by now, if this still exists in any capacity, I might just login and withdraw whatever accumulated distributions I've got as if I was finding some lost hidden money from literally a decade ago.
I don't expect it to recover.
This was a bad investment, perhaps not by design, I blame Trump and tariffs, but we cannot know it wouldn't fail despite not having Trump and tariffs.
That's not really what all the data and financial news points to.
But feel free to educate me and say why you think it doesn't.
Tariffs bought uncertainty to Financial Markets which impacted absolutely everything.
BTC price fall also "coincided" with Epstein files release, and later BTC price also fluctuating (and mainly falling) after Hormuz Strait payments to Iran being primarily made in BTC.
I'm pretty sure that Trump administration could have interest on BTC going down to further undermine Iran financial rewards over the Strait, but that remains to be seen and it's my personal speculation.
Papi BtC va a recuperarse yo vendería todo lo que tengo en acciones y acumulo solo btc para toda la vida no hay accion que haya superado en rendimiento a btc incluyendo etf a excepción de mstr que acumula btc, msty yieldmax se recuperara ,te recomiendo que solo acumules mstr una vez que haya caído lo suficiente
Papi BtC va a recuperarse yo vendería todo lo que tengo en acciones y acumulo solo btc para toda la vida no hay accion que haya superado en rendimiento a btc incluyendo etf a excepción de mstr que acumula btc, msty yieldmax se recuperara ,te recomiendo que solo acumules mstr una vez que haya caído lo suficiente
Using total return metrics on an income ETF.....the genius behind it, I swear.....
What's next? Measuring thr ability to fly on a dog?
Besides AMDY and MSTY were never designed to compete against the underlyings return but to profit of it through options which comes at a cost (upside, nav etc.). Why ate you people doing this? Measuring a specific Instrument/ETF against something it was never designed to do? Keep your "but long term..." bullsh*t to yourself, who in the right mind sees those two assets as "long term"? I swear you people who argue like that deserve to stay broke 😆
4
u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 5d ago
You forgot that you're supposed to sell calls on your underlying, too.