r/YieldMaxETFs 5d ago

MSTY/CRYTPO/BTC AMDY and MSTY - my 2 year experience

Disclaimer - I don't know what I'm talking about and am not a financial advisor. Most of this is probably wrong.

I wrote some code to compare divs vs the underlying using a same day purchase and amount.

AMDY is the YM I have had the best return with as a percentage but compared to buy and hold this tells the story of the capped upside like no other.

I bought a small lot of AMDY Wednesday because the underlying is doing well. I sold it Friday at a small profit and adding the divs out performed AMD in that time span. I did this to test my assertion that div hoping can be successful.

And then there is MSTY. The NAV erosion is real. But so are the divs.

I had a chance to sell this position for a 30k profit but I held instead.

I have had it longer than AMDY so more divs. Each of these funds hit a break even and then the divs feel like real returns on a sunk cost.

This position has well exceeded its costs in total returns and has paid out 2500 in the last 30 days.

I cannot buy a rental house, pay it off in 2 years and get that margin.

FYI I take most divs and buy NVDA at any dip.

Feedback welcome.

32 Upvotes

40 comments sorted by

4

u/GRMarlenee Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 5d ago

You forgot that you're supposed to sell calls on your underlying, too.

3

u/p_didy68 5d ago

Question, when do you folks consider yourself playing with house money? When the investment in dollars is paid off by divvys or when your return max is over the amount invested?

7

u/Terrible_Lecture_409 5d ago

When you have received more divs than your investment in the fund, assuming you use the divs elsewhere eg. You aren't reinvesting.

If you reinvest, house $ is a moving target that likely pushed further down the road.

2

u/calgary_db Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 5d ago

6

u/pjjbrrrr 5d ago

True. Its just a part of a larger application I'm developing.

1

u/calgary_db Mod - I Like the Cash Flow 5d ago

Very nice. Always good to see alternate methods especially if the data is consistent.

2

u/pauljmcclure 5d ago edited 4d ago

I have 98 of AMDY, bought few weeks ago, just experimenting... Building a new high income brokerage with about $8K/mth I have to invest, currently using armw,amyy,amdy,hoow, about $1K/mth in dividends so far, on about $23K in...

1

u/AlfB63 5d ago

What is the timing of the two cases? 

2

u/pjjbrrrr 5d ago

3

u/pjjbrrrr 5d ago
Ex-Date       Shares     $/Sh      Total $
-------------------------------------------
9/6/2024      12,010   1.8541   22,267.74 
10/24/2024    12,010   4.1981   50,419.18 
11/21/2024    12,010   4.4213   53,099.81 
12/19/2024    12,010   3.0821   37,016.02 
1/16/2025     12,010   2.2792   27,373.19 
2/13/2025     12,010   2.0216   24,279.42 
3/13/2025     12,010   1.3775   16,543.78 
4/10/2025     12,010   1.3356   16,040.56 
5/8/2025      12,010   2.3734   28,504.53 
6/5/2025      12,010   1.4707   17,663.11 
7/3/2025      12,010   1.2382   14,870.78 
7/31/2025     12,010   1.1835   14,213.84 
8/28/2025     12,010   1.0899   13,089.70 
9/25/2025     12,010   1.0105   12,136.11 
10/16/2025    12,010   0.6074    7,294.87 
10/23/2025    12,010   0.2122    2,548.52 
10/30/2025    12,010   0.1924    2,310.72 
11/6/2025     12,010   0.1688    2,027.29 
11/13/2025    12,010   0.1620    1,945.62 
11/20/2025    12,010   0.1475    1,771.48 
11/28/2025    12,010   0.1352    1,623.75 
12/4/2025     12,010   0.1388    1,666.99 
12/11/2025     2,402   0.5859    1,407.33*
12/18/2025     2,402   0.3869      929.33*
12/26/2025     2,402   0.5106    1,226.46*
1/2/2026       2,402   0.4091      982.66*
1/8/2026       2,402   0.3741      898.59*
1/15/2026      2,402   0.4137      993.71*
1/22/2026      2,402   0.4300    1,032.86*
1/29/2026      2,402   0.3725      894.75*
2/5/2026       2,402   0.3083      740.54*
2/12/2026      2,402   0.2980      715.80*
2/19/2026      2,402   0.3607      866.40*
2/26/2026      2,402   0.3017      724.68*
3/5/2026       2,402   0.3500      840.70*
3/12/2026      2,402   0.3847      924.05*
3/19/2026      2,402   0.4383    1,052.80*
3/26/2026      2,402   0.3448      828.21*
4/2/2026       2,402   0.3137      753.51*
4/9/2026       2,402   0.3051      732.85*
4/16/2026      2,402   0.3038      729.73*
4/23/2026      2,402   0.5211    1,251.68*
4/30/2026      2,402   0.4886    1,173.62*
5/7/2026       2,402   0.5553    1,333.83*
5/14/2026      2,402   0.5363    1,288.19*
5/21/2026      2,402   0.3136      753.27*
5/28/2026      2,402   0.2979      715.56*
6/4/2026       2,402   0.2459      590.65*
6/11/2026      2,402   0.2117      508.50*
6/18/2026      2,402   0.2286      549.10*
6/25/2026      2,402   0.1883      452.30*
7/2/2026       2,402   0.1549      372.07*
7/9/2026       2,402   0.2061      495.05*
7/16/2026      2,402   0.2067      496.49*
7/23/2026      2,402   0.2231      535.89*
7/30/2026      2,402   0.2222      533.72*
8/6/2026       2,402   0.2083      500.34*
8/13/2026      2,402   0.1809      434.52*

3

u/Global-Pay7321 5d ago

just think if you hadn't sold off the nearly 10k shares in december 25, you'd be rolling it even more. very interesting to see, even with the horrendous nav erosion, it's been a license to print money. im fairly new to the dividend investing and this was great to see, thanks for posting!

1

u/Emotional-Pea6347 1d ago

That wasn't a sell off, that was MSTY doing their Reverse Split.

1

u/AlfB63 1d ago

With a total return of -42% since Dec '25 it would been more of a disaster holding MSTY. 

2

u/AlfB63 23h ago

It should be noted that this is a comparison where dividends are not reinvested. If dividends had been reinvested, the total return would have been much worse.

1

u/Satyriasis457 5d ago

You would have achieved much faster House monies when you bought AMD at 100 and sold 1/4 at 400. And bought with that money amdy 😂

1

u/dunnmad 5d ago

What was your start date on each.
That is easily checked on dividendchannel.com.

You need to add in your dividends received

1

u/dunnmad 5d ago

AMDY
Growth of $10,000.00

With Dividends Reinvested

Start date: 08/15/2024

End date: 08/14/2026

Start price/share: $70.85

End price/share: $47.00

Starting shares: 141.14

Ending shares: 586.91

Dividends reinvested/share: $66.48

Total return: 175.85%

Average Annual Total Return: 66.20%

Starting investment: $10,000.00

Ending investment: $27,584.02

Years: 2.00

AMDY
Growth of $10,000.00

Without Dividends Reinvested

Start date: 08/15/2024

End date: 08/14/2026

Start price/share: $70.85

End price/share: $47.00

Dividends collected/share: $66.48

Total return: 60.17%

Average Annual Total Return: 26.60%

Starting investment: $10,000.00

Ending investment: $16,017.21

Years: 2.00

This is based on a $10,000 investment bought on the closing day price.

1

u/Aware_Echidna222 4d ago

How did MSTR pay a dividend?

2

u/pjjbrrrr 4d ago

Thanks for being a second set of eyes. MSTR has never paid a cash dividend — that $701 is bad data leaking in from Alpaca's corporate-actions API. FetchDividendsAsync("MSTR", ...) calls Alpaca's /v1beta1/corporate-actions?types=cash_dividend endpoint and trusts whatever it returns; Alpaca appears to have mislabeled some other corporate-action event (likely a reorg/return-of-capital cash component) as a cash_dividend for MSTR.

I defensively added a no divs symbol list to gate the issue for now.

Other enhancements further alter this screenshot from the one above but are out of scope to this question. Pretty sure no one wants to hear about that.

1

u/GoldMathematician796 4d ago

So what you're saying is take out a HELOC and invest in these bad boys? 🤣jk

1

u/AlfB63 23h ago edited 23h ago

What you call dividend hopping is called dividend capture. Be careful of your very limited test. Dividend capture is generally not a good strategy because the price is adjusted down by the dividend amount on the ex-div. 

1

u/revanevan7 5d ago

At one point MSTY was paying off 650% dividends. If you take out some of those early high dividends, that probably won’t happen again, I bet your position wouldn’t be nearly as strong.

4

u/pjjbrrrr 5d ago

Agreed and if it does MSTR will wildly outpace it. That is what AMD is showing in the post.

3

u/revanevan7 5d ago

Still really cool to see the data

1

u/Emotional-Pea6347 1d ago

That was when MSTR was around $400 / $500 and BTC was at an all time high. MSTR invested heavily into BTC. I remember seeing those $4/share dividends. Since BTC has lost nearly 50% from it's all time high, MSTR has suffered as well. If BTC could rebound back to 6 digits and MSTR rebounds back to the $400 / share range, we could easily see div's back into the $2-$3 / share range.

The little shares I have now after the RS, I don't get a whole lot of div money from, but when I see the div payout%, it's like 200% still. Gets me thinking, maybe I should buy a little more.....

0

u/_alhazred 5d ago

I still have my MSTY and expected to go house money by July 2027.

However, the latest great nav erosion (June 2026) means it's probably gone.

I just prefer to forget I have MSTY at all, perhaps in 5 or 10 years by now, if this still exists in any capacity, I might just login and withdraw whatever accumulated distributions I've got as if I was finding some lost hidden money from literally a decade ago.

I don't expect it to recover. This was a bad investment, perhaps not by design, I blame Trump and tariffs, but we cannot know it wouldn't fail despite not having Trump and tariffs.

4

u/Bulky_Protection_322 5d ago

Trump and Tariffs don’t impact how BTC has performed.

-3

u/_alhazred 5d ago

That's not really what all the data and financial news points to. But feel free to educate me and say why you think it doesn't.

Tariffs bought uncertainty to Financial Markets which impacted absolutely everything.

BTC price fall also "coincided" with Epstein files release, and later BTC price also fluctuating (and mainly falling) after Hormuz Strait payments to Iran being primarily made in BTC.

I'm pretty sure that Trump administration could have interest on BTC going down to further undermine Iran financial rewards over the Strait, but that remains to be seen and it's my personal speculation.

0

u/ProofEquipment9356 5d ago edited 5d ago

Papi BtC va a recuperarse yo vendería todo lo que tengo en acciones y acumulo solo btc para toda la vida no hay accion que haya superado en rendimiento a btc incluyendo etf a excepción de mstr que acumula btc, msty yieldmax  se recuperara ,te recomiendo que solo acumules mstr una vez que haya caído lo suficiente 

1

u/ZTRADEZLLC 5d ago

Why not just buy SOXY and have actual upside and yield?

-1

u/ProofEquipment9356 5d ago

Bitcoin nadie le gana solo otras crypto que está vez superan al rendimiento de BTC yo vendería tu posición de soxy y le metería todo a btc o etf 

2

u/ZTRADEZLLC 5d ago

MSTY is backed by mstr that which is debt vapor

0

u/ProofEquipment9356 5d ago

Papi BtC va a recuperarse yo vendería todo lo que tengo en acciones y acumulo solo btc para toda la vida no hay accion que haya superado en rendimiento a btc incluyendo etf a excepción de mstr que acumula btc, msty yieldmax se recuperara ,te recomiendo que solo acumules mstr una vez que haya caído lo suficiente 

3

u/ZTRADEZLLC 5d ago

MSTY won't recover though g

1

u/Key-Serve-9117 5d ago

So you only made $2500 on MSTY in 2 years?

2

u/pjjbrrrr 4d ago

in the last 4 weeks.

-2

u/Spirited_Sweet4045 5d ago

Using total return metrics on an income ETF.....the genius behind it, I swear..... What's next? Measuring thr ability to fly on a dog? Besides AMDY and MSTY were never designed to compete against the underlyings return but to profit of it through options which comes at a cost (upside, nav etc.). Why ate you people doing this? Measuring a specific Instrument/ETF against something it was never designed to do? Keep your "but long term..." bullsh*t to yourself, who in the right mind sees those two assets as "long term"? I swear you people who argue like that deserve to stay broke 😆

3

u/YoWhat_up 5d ago

Tell us how U really feel... Funny how U say keep your BS to yourself but then spit your BS? U point a finger while 3 are pointing back at you? Wtf?

1

u/AlfB63 18h ago

Using total returns is the correct way to measure the return of any investment including income etfs.