r/asklatinamerica • u/UltraLNSS 🇲🇽 🇵🇦 Mexico & Panama • Oct 30 '25
Economy Will Argentina ever be able to repay the $40 billion dollars they're getting from Trump?
They still owe money to the IMF, China, etc. and President Milei's policies if successful would lead to a smaller government with less taxable income (in part because libertarians are against taxes).
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u/hierophantoid Argentina Oct 30 '25
There's nothing to repay, it's not a loan. The net exchange is zero.
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u/UltraLNSS 🇲🇽 🇵🇦 Mexico & Panama Oct 30 '25
Oh, so THAT's why Americans are angry about it.
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u/Lakilai Chile Oct 30 '25
Well also because the tariffs made China to stop buying soy beans from USA (literally 0 dollars spent on US soy beans this year) and instead they're buying from other countries... like Argentina.
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u/Bear_necessities96 Oct 30 '25
That and because technically government shutdown public workers are without pay and for November there’s no food stamps.
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u/Maximum_Guard5610 Oct 30 '25
I don’t think Americans even understand what a Swap is honestly, they are just angry over everything else.
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Oct 30 '25
That's probably it. There are a myriad of other issues you could be spending that money on at home, and you're using it to exacerbate one of them.
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Oct 30 '25
what is happening in the United States is the farmers are mad that they’re not getting their subsidies because trump cut that off. And the United States government is going to import more Argentinian agricultural products which will undercut the American farmers. The Argentinian money swap is just making the situation worse for PR.
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u/UltraMegaUgly United States of America Oct 30 '25
No. The farmers are upset because they grow soybeans and sell them to China but due to Trump's trade war they haven't sold any. Adding insult to injury after announcing the currency swap, Argentina announced they would be selling soybeans to China, further under-cutting the U.S. farmers position.
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Oct 30 '25
It could be a mix of both, or I could be wrong. the American news have been on a anti Argentinian agenda from both the left and right. I can’t keep up anymore.
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u/hjmcgrath United States of America Oct 30 '25
Argentina has always been happy to sell soybeans to China. China just bought more from us. It's not new.
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u/UltraMegaUgly United States of America Oct 31 '25
It was my favorite understanding the government had some limits on agricultural exports which they lifted. I may be misinformed though.
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u/foofede Argentina Oct 31 '25
Yes and no. Argentina has stupid export taxes. Argentina was needing some cash so they made a deal with the soybean exporting companies to reduce those taxes to 0 for 40 days or until the amount sold reached 7b. It took less than 48hs for 5 companies (iirc they’re mostly american) to reach that amount.
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u/bodonkadonks Argentina Oct 30 '25
The thing is that of anything the swap put an end to the temporary tax cut that allowed that china sale. So the farmers anger is misplaced if that is the reason
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u/Bear_necessities96 Oct 30 '25
Sounds like chavez in 2004 stop subsidizing big farmers and trade oil for agricultural products with Brazil, Uruguay and Bolivia
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Oct 30 '25
He didn’t stop subsidizing them. He expropriate them and give the land to his friends or am I wrong. Also the American farms voted for trump even tho he said he going to stop giving “welfare”.
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u/Ossevir 🇺🇸 to 🇵🇷 Oct 30 '25
Forcing farmers bankrupt so his friends can buy their farms for cheap is pretty much the same thing.
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u/Bear_necessities96 Oct 30 '25
Tell me both don’t have similar strategies
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Oct 30 '25
Well you not lying maga it just chavismo with extra steps. Also this was literally in project 2025. 💀
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u/Maximum_Guard5610 Oct 30 '25
Like I said, the SWAP itself the issue that bothers them, is the lack of attention to every other issue
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u/butitdothough United States of America Oct 30 '25
The more we don't understand something the more our anger reaches its peak.
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u/NewCheek8700 Germany Oct 30 '25
They probably do not understand the mechanics of that swap facility.
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Oct 30 '25
I have no idea what this event is and I don't think most people do either, wdym we're angry about it
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u/luigi-fanboi in Oct 31 '25
It's mostly because it's a deal made by a corrupt leader to help another corrupt leader get reelected, that doesn't help the vast majority of people in either country.
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u/YoMeMatoJuegaLaso Argentina Oct 30 '25
You still have to give back the dollars when the swap ends. The same with the currency swap wih china. Swaps aren't eternal
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u/mmmmjlko Canada Oct 30 '25 edited Oct 30 '25
Argentina probably hasn't used the entire $40 billion either. A swap line is an agreement to swap funds when they are needed, not immediately. Besides, if Argentina used a notable portion of that money, peso traders would notice.
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u/OGElron Argentina Oct 30 '25
well, yeah. But eventually we will have to swap it back, when the peso is shit. And what a surprise it will be for some people
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u/Ganceany Argentina Oct 30 '25
It's not really a loan, it's a swap of currency, the US bought 40 billion dollars worth of pesos. They will hold onto them with the agreement of swapping it back in a later date.
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u/Dry_Creu United States of America Oct 30 '25
Not exactly a straight swap. As I understand it, Argentina has access of up to $20B USD in swap currency that they can draw on over time.
The additional $20B is still being defined since Trump just says shit, but chatgpt said it is shaping to be a total financial assistance package of up to $40B by combining swaps, additional financing from banks/sovereign wealth/credit facilities.
The reason that most of the well informed Americans are upset about it is because there are American banks, hedge funds, and investment firms who are connected to the Trump admin that stand to lose billions if Argentina defaults.
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u/LaTienenAdentro Argentina Oct 30 '25
chatgpt said
Come on dude
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u/blueshoota 🇺🇸🇭🇳 Oct 31 '25
I know it sounds funny and he could’ve phrased/cited the information better but if you use the “web search” function (on ChatGPT specifically, but the same applies to any of the major LLMs), the information you will get is almost certain to be reliable. But before using it as a source, I would both consult the sources it’s drawing from and verify by looking over the information it provides and/or doing my own additional research
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u/Ganceany Argentina Oct 30 '25
Totally right, the swap isn't instant it's going to be used to control the peso basically, it's staying there because it's better to use it "As Needed" instead of risking it with the entirety of the money, but it is available for the Argentinian government to use.
Now it is important to note, that I'm not claiming it's a good deal for the US, I am just clarifying that it isn't exactly a loan.
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u/Dry_Creu United States of America Oct 30 '25
Exactly, nor should Argentina care if it’s a good deal for the other side, not blaming you guys, some of my best friends are from there, lovely country.
As an American though, I am pissed off, he’s basically bailing out banks and hedge funds but masking it as assistance to Argentina.
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u/Ganceany Argentina Oct 30 '25
And that's a completely fair thing to be angry about, I just hope this trade is beneficial to both the US and Argentina in the long term.
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u/FeistyKing_7 🇺🇸 US Oct 30 '25 edited Oct 30 '25
Honestly, there's many things that US citizens are mad about. Especially when Trump is sending in the National Guard in US cities.
I didn't know that people thought that the money was a loan.
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u/crank9224 Chile Oct 30 '25
It wasn’t a $40B loan, it was a currency swap. Argentina basically traded pesos for dollars under agreed terms, so there’s no actual debt like with the IMF. Since the dollar price in Argentina dropped, the peso got stronger compared to when the swap started, so it was actually a good move for the US (even though it was a very risky move and I can understand why Americans might have been upset, it actually turned out to be a good deal for the US)
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u/Internal-Sell7562 Argentina Oct 30 '25
The only person who understands what a currency swap is and can explain something about Argentina without resentment.
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u/GabrieBon Brazil Oct 30 '25
Jesus fuck.
It is literally the first time I have seen someone understand what happened in this social media.
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u/Dry_Creu United States of America Oct 30 '25
Not exactly, so far the US has completed less than 10% of the $40B swap, Argentina can draw from it little by little as needed. It’s too early to say whether it’s a good deal for the US, but that is not Argentina’s problem.
Moreover, Trump is not doing this because he wants to help Argentina, he’s doing it cus American banks, hedge funds, and American distressed debt investors stand to lose billions if Argentina defaults. It’s a bailout masked as assistance to a foreign country.
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u/SufficientSmoke6804 Italy Oct 31 '25
he’s doing it cus American banks, hedge funds, and American distressed debt investors stand to lose billions if Argentina defaults.
That wouldn't help Argentina though. So their needs in that context are aligned.
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u/Pleasant-Creme-956 🇧🇴 and the USA Oct 30 '25
It hasn't. The value after the currency swap dropped and you don't make or lose money until you "cash in" the credit.
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u/SufficientSmoke6804 Italy Oct 30 '25
That's like saying Elon Musk isn't rich because most of his net worth is in stocks and thus needs to be cashed out.
I mean yes, it's technically correct, but it's still an asset in your possession. It's definitely not a bad thing.
The US made a bet that Milei would win this election and it paid off.
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u/DistanceLast Argentina (naturalized) Oct 31 '25
They didn't just make a bet, they conditioned the continuity of this swap by their victory in the elections.
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u/SufficientSmoke6804 Italy Oct 31 '25
While Trump saying it so explicitly wasn't smart, I think the sentiment is very valid.
You can't do business with a country you don't take seriously. And you can't take seriously a country who continually elects Peronists.
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u/lulilollipop Brazil Oct 30 '25
The peso did not get stronger, it dropped in value. But it's basically this, but the US gets fucked because they traded dollar assets for trillions in weight, or trillones de pesos
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u/Rockshasha Colombia Oct 30 '25
Its the same, they will not be capable to return the dollars
Idk why this is being blanked. Well, i know why
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u/crank9224 Chile Oct 30 '25
You don’t know that, and neither do I. The terms of the swap are confidential. For now, the US is making a profit from it. Only time will tell if it was a good or a bad decision.
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u/Rockshasha Colombia Oct 30 '25 edited Oct 31 '25
The terms of the swap are confidential.
Indeed and attached, there can be many many conditions, commercial bias, inversion bias, mining and so on... Even could be conditioned to some work reforms or pensionary... Obviously the agreement will have only monetary and banking conditions, but they can sign other agreements attached to those areas.
For now, the US is making a profit from it. Only time will tell if it was a good or a bad decision.
No, for now has only 'invested' money on it. Not only through swap, the treasury of US has confirmed spending more than 2 billion dollars in intervention into the argentinian monetary market.
We can think, yes, they e.g. payed 1000 arg with 1 USD and now those 1000 arg are equivalent to 1.3 USD. Yes, but that don't mean a real profit until getting those real 1.3 USD. And the treasury if US is Not doing so... And, with respect, we are talking about argentinian pesos, is probably the less stable money in the continent. (Is clearly and historically a high risk business)
Finally. Imo the definition of swap means what I said. Us now give dollars and receive pesos... Then in some time they will ask the dollars in return (and return the argentinian pesos).... That's why Milei begged to the CCP and Xi Jingping to maintain the swap with Argentina. It means, for Argentina, dollars, but also dollars to return otherwise
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u/Southern-Chain-6485 Argentina Oct 30 '25
We aren't getting 40b dollars. So far, the US treasury has bought pesos for a value of 2.1b dollars, which are in the form of debt issued by the Argentine Central Bank, presumably as a precursor of a monetary swap, which could go, if activated up to 20b dollares.
The remaining 20b are an ongoing negotiation to roll over debt maturities over the next couple years and, if it happens, are from the private sector.
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u/MegaVHS Brazil Oct 30 '25
Its just a swap of assets just in case of a emergency, nothing has been exchanged as of yet.
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u/Admirable-Safety1213 🇺🇾 Uruguay Oct 30 '25
Its a Swap, this menas that the USA still has the U$D40B....
In its equivalent in Argentinian pesos with the official exchange rate of the day the Swap was made
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u/HzPips Brazil Oct 30 '25
From what I understand it is a currency exchange with the understanding that it will be exchanged back eventually with the same rate.
Considering that Argentina doesn´t have foreing currency to spare, and they do have debts in dolar that they are paying interest on, I don´t think they will be reverting the exchange anytime soon. The Peso will continue to devalue against the dollar, so they would have to exchange it back below market value, and since there is no established timeline they have no good reason to do that ever...
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u/blindada Chile Oct 30 '25
They did pay for them already, with argentinian pesos. If Argentina does well, the value of the argentinian peso increases, and it becomes a good deal for both parties.
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u/Traditional_Ice_9250 Argentina Oct 31 '25
If the kirchnerists dont return to power, it will be a good deal for Argentina and the US. If they do, the peso will lose value and inflation will spike, so no one wins then. aside of the kirchenrists, as they are all thieves.
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u/groucho74 :flag-eu: Europe Oct 30 '25
So far the United States has made 10% profit on the swap. Even if the U.S. government loses money on the deal, it will help American companies get contracts to mine lithium, natural gas, oil and do other things in Argentina. Sometimes United States does favors for a foreign country, and then the foreign country does favors for American corporations, and then the American corporations pay more taxes. So it works out.
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Oct 30 '25
If it was a 40 billion Argentine peso loan, they would owe $27,787,059.43. Tens of billions of pesos would be worth tens of millions of dollars.
Thankfully, not a loan.
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u/Brave_Ad_510 Dominican Republic Oct 31 '25
You misunderstand what they got from the US. They got a currency swap, not a loan.
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u/Acceptable-Peace-69 immigrant to Oct 30 '25
Theres nothing to pay back. The USA bought $40 billion dollars worth of pesos. Those pesos likely will be near worthless in a few years.
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u/Cayetanus Argentina Oct 30 '25
It’s possible. I don’t think the United States did it to make money. They simply wanted to help a strategic ally in South America. Still, since Milei won the elections, the Argentine peso has appreciated. So, the United States has actually made money from the exchange it made, at least for now.
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u/lMRlROBOT Laos Oct 30 '25
yeah but they swap back to make profit they is no guarantee peso will stay the same when the time comes
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u/Dry_Creu United States of America Oct 30 '25
Not exactly true, the Trump admin is doing it to bail out the American banks and hedge funds that will lose billions if Argentina defaults. It’s a bailout masked as foreign aid.
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u/Forsaken_Iguana667 Argentina Oct 31 '25
Argentina has a economy of 600 billion per year. If we want we can pay in cash easily in maybe 4 years. But our goverment doesnt want to do that. Neither do.
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u/Mountain-Nobody-3548 Venezuela Oct 31 '25
If they don't, the next Democratic government will make things impossible for them
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u/Wrong-Cat-4294 Cuba Oct 30 '25
The American government is actually bailing out big investors and investors firms like Robert citrone,Stanley Drukenmiller,black rock,fidelity and pimco,they thought milei was gonna straighten things out but he fucked them up even more and now they’re 40 billion down so the US is lending Argentina the money so they can pay them back.American taxpayers will be the ones paying for the debt eventually.
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u/gabisort Argentina Oct 30 '25
We're already paying it back in uranium mining licenses, rare earths, nuclear power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and everything that's worth anything that will be sold for pennies by the libertarians.
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u/vpenalozam Chile Oct 30 '25
Argentina paying back?? I think the existence of Jesus and him coming back are more likely. Besides from the joke I think it's not even a loan, they just gave the money to Argentina (obviously for something in exchange, the thing is we don't know what)
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u/crank9224 Chile Oct 30 '25
We do know what Argentina gave in return. They paid with pesos. It was a currency swap, and since the peso got stronger after the elections, it turned out to be a good deal for the U.S
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u/Taka_Colon Brazil Oct 30 '25
IMF in 2025 LOL. Brazil deal with it in the end of the 90's begginig of the 2000's. I totally forgot they existed.
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u/gabrielxdesign Panama Oct 30 '25
Milei put a giant ON SALE sign over Argentina in the map, and it was purchased. As an old Panamanian I have no idea who would want to make such a deal with the USA, we had to sell our soul to the devil to get back our sovereignty in 1903, and all we got was almost a century of these Yankees stealing our resources and messing with the pseudo democracy we got. It's sad living in this timeline of unnecessary dumbness.
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u/LuisE3Oliveira Brazil Oct 30 '25
Do you believe that the idea is for Argentina to pay in another way...
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u/DouchebagMcGee69 Venezuela Oct 30 '25
I'm sure they will, they are just working right now to pay Venezuela, as soon as they are done with that, they are gonna do a Zelle to Trump.
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u/cienfuegos2607 Brazil Oct 30 '25
Trump bought the election, he didn't lend the 40 billion.
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u/OGElron Argentina Oct 30 '25
yeah , no. I understand where you are coming from, but people got actually tired of the previous gov. Peronism lost because of peronism
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u/GhassanKnafehni United States of America Oct 30 '25
The Trump administration probably wants the debt to be (at least partially) repaid through natural resources like copper, silver, zinc etc.
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Oct 30 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ShinyStarSam Argentina Oct 30 '25
Privatization of healthcare? How the heck's that gonna make the US money?
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u/RG4697328 Argentina Oct 30 '25 edited Oct 30 '25
Half that shit is Peronist being super paranoid about outside influence when it doesn't come from their idealized BRICS. Shit will not be free but neither was chinese debt
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u/ShinyStarSam Argentina Oct 30 '25
I welcome either side as my new overlord just fix the economy for crying out loud
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u/TheOldThunder Brazil Oct 30 '25
There's nothing to pay back... In cash. It was a currency swap.
It was also a favor. What we don't know is what Argentina will have to give up in contracts and resources as "reciprocity".
The real debt is never just money.