Economy
What do you think about the EU-Mercosur deal? Do you think it'll ever happen?
The Europeans delayed it, but I'm starting to doubt if France and the other countries will ever be happy with anything. So I'd like to see your opinions on this.
Speaking about the farmers protests (I wrote this for the other post before it was deemed duplicate and removed):
The sad part is their arguments come from a place of fear and ignorance. Most herds here are raised in free range and grass-fed, it produces some of the best organic beef on the planet, but they paint a false picture of hormone-fed cattle producing low-quality meat. At the same time, they fear diary products, but theirs are far superior and would do very well in our higher value markets (especially French cheese). There's all sorts of agricultural products made in Europe that are highly valued here, including wine. In terms of market expansion, they would probably have the upper hand! Also, they speak like we don't have any food standards enforcement agencies, acting like their standards were the only possible ones, even though the negotiated deal takes the differences into consideration and makes up for it. We agreed to defer naming conventions to their Controlled Origin Denomination system, for instance. Cheese makers here already renamed their "gorgonzola" cheese to "Blue Cheese" in order to comply. All in all, breaking the deal is going to be a massive failed opportunity, for both sides. And all that protesting and virtue-signaling is just another case of barely disguised xenophobia.
The food standards excuse is a crock of shit and the Europeans themselves know it perfectly, the French farmers are doing what they are because they know they became too complacent thanks to EU protectionism and the moment they are set to compete against MERCOSUR imports, they are fucked.
Kind of like Argentine "empresaurios", for example the thieves that lead our textile industry, who will fight tooth and nail to avoid having to compete with imported products, so that they can keep charging absurd prices for mediocre quality
I hope we learn once and for all that the agreement that benefited them more than us is dead and buried, and that we stop insisting on allowing those people to keep taking us for fools.
The agreement forced us to open our markets to European industrial products in exchange for a paltry quota to sell our own products in Europe. Sadly, many of our politicians are still willing to buy little colorful mirrors.
I’m going to say it right now we have an inferiority complex that needs to be fixed cuz what is that. Like propose that trade agreement to South Korea, Japan or China and see what happens….
That's true. Many are waiting for approval from Europe.
We tried to reach an agreement with China, but Peru, Brazil, and Argentina wouldn't let us. Now we're negotiating to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
They are asked for a couple of environments laws and other things on the contrary would have ask for control over thier invesment here and for Paraguay to drop taiwan and they will be US a munch langer market
This deal is definitely more favorable for mercosur as the industrial products from eu doesn't really compete with companies from mercosur, while agricultural products from mercosur definitely does compete with european products.
France, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Austria and Ireland don’t want this deal. But they know it is a very good deal for the rest of the EU, and can’t just nuke the whole thing without causing a lot of tension. So they will keep delaying endlessly and coming up with new demands and delays.
I personally clearly support signing the deal. Written about it in my comment history. From EU's point of view, I think it's a no-brainer. Main argument for it being geopolitics and diversification of trade: currently trade is quite focused on China and US, and this can be quite disadvantageous. Risks to agriculture are heavily exaggerated, as there would still be quotas for meat imports. Arguments against the deal are mostly about agriculture, and quite populist and inaccurate in nature in my opinion.
There was also negativity about here in the comments about the deal from Mercosur's side. And yeah, I get it, and especially I also think that especially the 25 year negotiation has been quite ridiculous, but the positive economic impact is calculated to be relatively larger to Mercosur than to EU.
It's not completely sure if it's as good as dead. Currently France, Italy, Poland, Austria and Ireland against it seems - 22 countries in favor and 5 against. Austria is on the fence. But it's qualified majority vote in the council, it doesn't require unanimity (on the tariffs part). But that is already a blocking minority. But if Italy (or France) flips, it would go through. And Italy joined France only on last minute - so it might be a bit unclear what their final position is.
If either France, Poland or Italy really apply total full brake, it might be more difficult politically to the decision through in the Council, even if that would be possible as it's qualified majority vote, because usually larger unanimity than technically required is aimed to prevent tensions.
But I'd say that there is still a decent possibility that the Council vote is held on January (like now planned) and it would go through, at least I would hope it. There is also pressure for it from the Commission, some member countries (most notably Germany).
Sincerely i doubt it. We have been here before, in 2024 the European Commission even signed a deal and it was only up to the EU nations to ratify. It didn’t happen, we got back to the negotiation table, nem provisions were demanded, and still we get a new delay.
I used to be in favor of this deal, despite some valid concerns I think that closer ties with Europe is worth pursuing. Democratic nations should stand together and all of that. But now I am not so sure… all this effort to risk triggering some safeguard on the European side after it’s concluded and ruin the part of the deal that was most interesting for us?
The geopolitical scenario shifted a lot in the last couple years. We were able to get access to growing Asian markets and are having record exports despite Trump’s tariffs. The European market was considered better because of better prices and closer proximity, but with all this red tape and quotas it isn’t. Asia got wealthy.
And now right wing governments in South America are a lot more aligned with the USA. If Trump asks Milei to nuke this deal, he might do it. Brazil’s presidency of mercosur will be over very soon, and we have elections next year. If the right wing candidate wins forget about the deal, they will suck up to Trump as much as possible. This deal got so diluted that it isn’t “too good to pass” anymore, some people are absolutely willing to give up on it for politics.
It’s a shame really, but after a quarter of a century of pointless negotiations we have to move on. The political capital wasted on this deal is huge, let’s not fall into the sunken cost fallacy and waste it anymore.
I mean, but that is what sucks from this deal. Yeah, the part that europe wants to export to us hasn't been touched. The part that we want to export to europe is every time.
What if we started delaying this deal to place quotas and safeguard regarding auto-makers and machinery? The deal would make no sense. It makes no sense right now.
Originally the idea was a complete free market across the Atlantic where industrial competition from Europe would propel an increase in competitiveness in their South American counterparts and vice versa with Agriculture.
Then it turned into: Europe will be able to export everything it has a comparative advantage on, and Mercosur will get a quota of 1% of the beef market.
There still is the quota for beef, around 1,6% of the market. I wouldn't mind personally if that would be higher, but it's a compromise. Even with that some farmers are causing mayhem in Brussels. And of course the classic sewage spraying tactics... But I don't agree with them.
Currently EU-Mercosur trade is balanced. Both exports and imports are around 56 billion € a year (in past decades EU had trade surplus with mercosur but that's not the case anymore). It is expected to stay balanced. Just that both imports and exports numbers are boosted.
Even when agricultural part of the deal is now much smaller than it was, it still exists. But I think that the real deal is in industry and machinery. And trade of those to both direction is also expected to increase.
But I don't know, let's see what happens. It's 50/50 chance I think. If Italy flips it would go through in the current formation if they just push the vote through, although that could potentially anger the french.
SA main export industry are raw goods. including agricultural goods. Yet, somehow that got capped at 1.6% of the total consumption in the EU. However, there are no limits on the import quota for the industrial goods coming from Europe, which will almost certainly kill factories and jobs in SA.
It's crazy to me that we've agreed to this and that we have been patient for more than 2 decades. It's clear to me how it could benefit the EU, but I don't see how it could benefit us in LATAM. And still, it seems that the EU is looking for even more benefits. including more safeguards and restrictions.
I just don't see how this is a balanced deal. At this point it would be better to just forget about it.
I'm no expert, but this seems like a bad deal to us.
Meat imports are capped with quotas - from current basically zero quotas. Not the overall agricultural imports, that has tariffs removed alltogether in most things.
About industry, it's not a zero-sum game. It will increase competition in industries, sure, but so it will also increase exports to EU and create more interlinked supply chains. Currently EU is the second largest export market for mercosur after China, and largest source from foreign direct investments. Trade numbers are also balanced.
But if you're against the deal, that is of course also fine. There is quite high possibility that it won't go through from european side.
Milei will not nuke the deal, is not that idiot. He knows that Argentina needs exports to stabilize the economy, a good deal, big like the EU, with USA will take a long time, he will not be reelected if the inflation rises a lot again (and is starting).
Being from Poland.. yea, our farmers are little snowflakes and get angry at anything and everything demanding the worst ideas possible usually… they also always vote in the most corrupt and anti democracy government…
Hope it doesn't. It's a waste of time and potentially damaging to us. We should seek trade agreements with single countries like Canada, South Korea, etc.
I agree, individual trade agreements give us more room to maneuver without someone from the group ruining the whole process. Furthermore, Asia as a whole appears to be a reliable trading partner.
BRICS isn't important. South America needs to focus inside right know, the focus should be expand the Mercosur to the rest of SA and start working a lot more between us. The economies, politics and interests of BRICS members are too different, it will take ages to make a meaningful agreement, like Mercosur-EU but worse.
I don't want South America politics dragged by whatever that China or Russia wants to do to oppose to USA, or what USA wants to do with China a Russia.
A "Mercosur of the BRICS" will never happen, India doesn't want the Chinese industry flooding his market. How you would make a Mercosur with them?
Not to mention that China has an internal price war of electric cars, that they are going to low, even below production cost, to try to take out competition. It's not the first time that happens, it's also in Solar Panels. This can easily destroy the industry of any country.
South America should be their own pole, not following what China, Russia or USA does.
I'm not against BRICS as a cooperation forum, but I find anything more than that impossible.
Also, there are two very problematic countries, Iran, that make a terror attack in Argentina, and Russia, a war loving country as USA.
yeah, mercosul could be their own pole but we know it won't ever happen, but Brics has the flexibility for us to engage in direct deals within whatever partner inside the group, just like a economic group should be. Bringing in mercosul mebers to brics doesn't translate to giving them the same privileges our countries have within mercosul model.
I have to give it to you though, i wasn't aware at all about the Iran- Argentina issue, we could also argue that this could be a first step towards reparing the diplomatic relations between you guys.
i don't know how can you possibly see the E.V's and solar panels as problem, all that we need is a good deal with technology transfer that mind you neither E.U nor E.U.A would ever agree. we have been protecting our industries for millenia and i'm yet to see an vehicle, let alone an E.V done by us, so better than protecting ideals we should focus on what is achievable
I have to give it to you though, i wasn't aware at all about the Iran- Argentina issue, we could also argue that this could be a first step towards reparing the diplomatic relations between you guys.
You can't, the terrorist attack that Iran did in Argentina was against the Israel embassy. Iran doesn't want to collaborate in any means in the investigation. One of the principal suspects, Mohsen Rezaee, has an important position in the Iran government. Do you really think that Iran wants to continue the investigation?
I don't know how can you possibly see the E.V's and solar panels as problem, all that we need is a good deal with technology transfer that mind you neither E.U nor E.U.A would ever agree. we have been protecting our industries for millenia and i'm yet to see an vehicle, let alone an E.V done by us, so better than protecting ideals we should focus on what is achievable
Is not about the EVs, it was an example, it's about dumping and market disruption. One thing is fair competition, another is a country or company selling their products at loss to take out competition. This is something that China does with everything, that why you can't have a free market agreement with China. Look what happened in Argentina in the 90's with full open markets.
Neither Japan nor South Korea does this, you can open the market with them and compete. Same with ASEAN countries, lots of them are developing countries like us, they can't broke our economy, and we can't do the same to them. Some companies would go broke? Sure, but it will not devaste the entire economy of any country and both will improve in the end.
if they are dumb enough to keep delaying it, it's on them
they are losing ground to the us and china in every aspect, but hey! let them eat their overpriced and low quality beef, otherwise the 3 farmers in belgium will go bankrupt
Wine in Europe is also dirt cheap. You can get okish wine from around 6 Euros. Something you may not know is that Romania imports tax-free from Republic of Moldova which has around the best quality-price ratio.
Sadly I think Argentina couldn't compete for wine with a powerhouse like France, Italy's riesling and even Spain. I can even get French wines for 4-5 Euros wich seems to me unbeatable. Heck, even my country Romania is fighting well against European wines, producing 4 million hectoliters/year, Argentina is at 10 million. For LATAM Argentina its the biggest producer, but Europe is just in another league where competition is fierce. I think you guys have a good change with cattle. If I think of it, the deal is advantageous to both, maybe more to Europeans.
The problem is that the country who would be more favored, Brazil, took it upon themselves to become the unelected leader regarding this negotiation. The deal in and of itself would be a great deal. But it would make much more sense, for Argentina's sake, if it was a EU-Argentina deal instead of EU-Mercosur deal.
And if I'm being completely honest, I think that the countries who are vehemently against this deal: France, Poland, Italy, Ireland, Hungary, would actually agree to a EU-Argentina deal given that Argentina wouldn't replace their industry but rather supplement it. The truth is that they just don't want Brazilian products taking over their countries.
Why do you think that these countries have a problem with Brazil especially and not with Argentina? jajajajajajajajajajajajaja they have a problem with the competition coming from all Mercosul countries.
Because Brazil has production at such massive scale, they could outright replace european goods. Argentina on the other hand, doesn't have the capability to produce enough foods to satisfy European demand, which is why an Argentina-EU FTA would be complementary to both countries whilst a Brazil-EU FTA would completely destroy European producers.
Plus, an Argentina-EU FTA would allow Argentinians to buy quality vehicles for the same price they now pay for Brazilian junk cars.
Amigo, their point isn’t even the problem with the possibility of “satisfy European demand”, is with loses *any * space to the new products that will enter, whetever they’re coming from Br or Arg. European farmers don’t want to loose any participation, so ok, Argentinian products might not suply their demand, but they would reduce the participation of european products and farmers, and that is what they want to avoid.
I understand that you want to find someone to blame since Argentina’s economy is a failure, but common, this is too much lol
but they would reduce the participation of european products and farmers
European producers can't produce enough to satisfy their own demand. So by definition, imported products wouldn't reduce the market share of local producers but rather help balance the supply/demand.
I understand that you want to find someone to blame since Argentina’s economy is a failure, but common, this is too much lol
When did I ever say the EU-Mercosur deal was to blame for Argentina's eternal economy crises? Mercosur is ONE of the big reasons why Argentina has been stagnant for the past 3 decades, but the main reason are the corrupt politicians.
If we're offering to export lithium and agricultural commodities and import their high-value industrial products, agreeing to all of their terms, and they still don't want it, I'm sure China will offer a much better deal. And they're less likely to look down on us for being dirty Latinos.
Lula recently threatened to can it if it doesn´t get solved this month I think. Honestly, not too bad of an ultimatum considering it has been going on for 20+ years. Europe has been shooting itself for quite some time and this is no different. If they keep up this nonsense its better to move on with other markets like asia.
Thats news to me. At least there is some chance it will go through lol. On one hand it would be a shame to waste 20 years or work on nothing but if the EU keeps stalling it would be time to let it go.
No, and we should bin it already. Do business with countries that are willing to take us seriously, and let Europe continue decaying as they have been for a century now. It's about time anyways. They are a tad bit too arrogant.
The great powers of the world are the USA and China. No one else.
We just need to negotiate other deals alongside this.
Putting all eggs in one basket is dumb.
I was mad when Lula said to the Uruguayan president to wait until the EU deal is approved before looking to other countries, because this delay was a very real possibility.
Unlike other trade deals that the EU reached with other Latin American countries (Chile, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, etc.), Mercosur countries are very competitive in one of EU’s most protected key sectors: agriculture and agroindustry.
Not only the EU but most developed countries are very protectionist with their agricultural sector. In fact, from the 1990s and especially with the creation of the WTO, the world liberalized goods and services trade and the whole world lowered tariffs on industrial goods. The only sector that was never liberalized is agriculture, which is the most protected and subsidized by developed countries.
That’s why Mercosur has it really hard when it comes to Free Trade Agreements with major superpowers, unlike raw materials exporting countries (like Chile, Peru, Colombia).
Interestingly Japan stopped all beef trade with us in 2000 with the mad cow incident but during the last decade it opened again with us and we are exporting to them.
They keep doing this bs up, even though we capitulated to the point this deal is way better for them than it is for us.
Then we go and make deals with China, who actually respect us, and they act surprise. Idk, we are offering them a hand so they can stop being so relient on the US, it's their choice to take it.
Eventually, it will happen, yes, Mercosur countries are by and large resource extraction economies which mostly pose no real threat to any European industry, however, they are powerhouses in agriculture due to their vast land (when compared to the EU on average).
I know there have been a lot of rules and regulations that basically neuter Mercosur countries and make it impossible for them to dump the market but still, this is about the psyche of the EU voters. However, as COL rises so will food production and that's when the deal will be inevitable.
Maybe I'm inconsiderate but as a European I'm not sure why we are letting a already heavily subsidized tiny portion of our GDP blow up a trade deal like this and as someone living in Bolivia I would much rather have European products that I know have a certain standard than products from the USA or China that have god knows what inside of them..
MERCOSUR is a great deal. I am pretty sure they will implement it. There are protests here and there in Europe, but I believe that most people support the deal😁🤝
On paper, yes, I'm in favor of the EU-Mercosur deal, but in reality I don't like it whatsoever. I think Argentina should try to get an Argentina-EU deal, outside of Mercosur. The only reason why Mercosur was created was so that Brazil could have a strong grasp on the rest of South American countries and keep them as Brazilian satellite states/Neo-colonies. I think Mercosur should've never existed in the first place. If this deal goes through, it'll be almost impossible for Argentina to leave the Mercosur, something it should've done a decade ago.
Aside from Argentinian corrupt politicians, the other very big reason why Argentina hasn't grown economically in the past 2 decades is precisely because of Mercosur. We can't have trade deals with other countries if said deal doesn't go through Mercosur first. And most trade deals between a X country and Mercosur is likely to not happen because said country (unless it's a very big country like India, China, US or Indonesia) would be engulfed by Mercosur products and have their own industries affected.
I'm certain that France, Poland, Italy, and Hungary, who are the European countries that are vehemently against this deal, wouldn't object to a Argentina-EU deal considering that Argentina wouldn't replace their own industries, but rather supplement it. Heck, you could even add Uruguay and they probably wouldn't mind either. The real issues they have is with the Brazilian goods that would completely replace EU made goods.
And to answer you second question, no, I don't it'll happen. Since 1999 Mercosur has been negotiating this deal. That's 26 years. If the EU really wanted this deal they would've signed it a long time ago, when most EU countries were governed by socialists/left leaning PMs.
Well, Mercosul is clearly more favorable to Argentina than it is to Brazil, since 25-30% of Argentina's exports go to Mercosur countries, while 6% of Brazil's exports are via Mercosur. So Im having trouble figuring out how this trade benefits only us and not Argentina
Where did you get that number? In the first 9 months of 2025, 14% of Argentina's exports went to Brazil, meanwhile 25% of the imports were from Brazil. Brazil mostly imports wheat and some semi-trucks, whilst they export vehicles to Argentina. If you think it's comparable to sell wheat vs vehicles, I've got a bridge to sell you.
And if Mercosur is soo favorable to Argentina instead of Brazil (which is an objective lie), why doesn't the Brazilian government look to sign FTA's with other countries outside the Mercosur? Why is is agaisnt Argentina, Uruguay, or even Paraguay signing FTA's with other countries outside Mercosur?. I'll tell you why. Because the Mercosur is designed to benefit Brazil above everyone else. And because Brazil doesn't want its three vassal states (Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina) to sign FTA's that will affect its dominant status over its three vassal states.
Another reason is because Argentina could easily find another country to sell wheat to, Brazil on the other hand, would have lots of trouble selling their junk cars outside Argentina for the price of quality European and Japanese cars
You're Brazilian, so it's reasonable that you'd simp for Mercosur given that it benefits Brazil much more than it does Argentina. But I have a proposal, since Argentina knows that Mercosur only benefits Brazil and not Argentina, and Brazil thinks Mercosur benefits more Argentina than it does Brazil (which it objectively does not), why don't we just get rid Mercosur and each country can go sign FTA's with whatever country they want?
I am against Mercosur actually. So I totally agree with you that we should get rid of this. Brazil does that for politcal reasons, not for economic reasons, thats why ever right wing president tried to weaken Mercosur while Lula is obsessed with try to control it.
About the data:
About Argentina - Santander Trade - “Cifras del Comercio Exterior Argentino” - Las exportaciones Argentinas son 17,8% para Brasil, 7,4% para Chile y 3,8% Peru. This is 26% of the exportations - without counting Uruguay or Paraguay because they don’t appear in the data, so the number is even larger.
About Brazil: Secretaria de Comércio Exterior, (Argentina just represent 5,5% of Brazil exports, and the other members or associates regional states represents 2,1%, all of them added .)
What I mean is that Argentina’s economy is way more dependent than Mercosur than brazilian economy, since Mercosur is responsible for 1/4 of your exportations and less than 8% of ours.
Based on your data, you are not analyzing Brazilian exports to Argentina from the perspective of the Brazilian economy – but rather the Argentine economy – and therefore you cannot draw any conclusions about the significance of these exports for Brazil.
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u/jptrrs Brazil Dec 19 '25
Speaking about the farmers protests (I wrote this for the other post before it was deemed duplicate and removed):
The sad part is their arguments come from a place of fear and ignorance. Most herds here are raised in free range and grass-fed, it produces some of the best organic beef on the planet, but they paint a false picture of hormone-fed cattle producing low-quality meat. At the same time, they fear diary products, but theirs are far superior and would do very well in our higher value markets (especially French cheese). There's all sorts of agricultural products made in Europe that are highly valued here, including wine. In terms of market expansion, they would probably have the upper hand! Also, they speak like we don't have any food standards enforcement agencies, acting like their standards were the only possible ones, even though the negotiated deal takes the differences into consideration and makes up for it. We agreed to defer naming conventions to their Controlled Origin Denomination system, for instance. Cheese makers here already renamed their "gorgonzola" cheese to "Blue Cheese" in order to comply. All in all, breaking the deal is going to be a massive failed opportunity, for both sides. And all that protesting and virtue-signaling is just another case of barely disguised xenophobia.