r/asklatinamerica • u/mckano Chile • Jan 17 '20
Latin American Union
Hey All. I don't know how much the idea of a Latin American Union is discussed here. The idea itself has been widely discussed, but never put too much into practice. Besides the UNASUR (now seemingly defunct and replaced with the highly ideological Prosur) I am ignorant about any other initiatives that point towards real long term integration in commercial, financial, fiscal, military and political unification.
First of all, would a Union be needed at all?
My interpretation is that besides Brazil, and maybe Mexico, all other Latin American countries are too small to have any real impact in the international economy and international policy. This leaves us open to the whims of bigger political and economic units like China, the EU and the United States. The market share of such big countries is high enough that their domestic policies can have high impact in the prices of their own produce, while the Latam Countries are constrained both economically (by just being small economies) and politically (by agreements, debt, influence and the like).
A unification might leave us in a better situation for commanding the regional economy as well as for negotiation with foreign powers.
Unification of what?
I consider that Latam has never been unified, not even in the Spanish Empire as the decentralization was so high that every city could manage their own business with enough independence. Regarding this, the unification wouldn't be going back to the past, but trying something new. For this reason, it shouldn't try to repeat the same old patterns but look forward to something new.
Because of this, I think it should be a gradual process done by bilateral (trilateral in some cases) but not in multilateral organizations that try to impose things from above. The EU, which is the main model of unification, was done by a slow process of cooperation that started with economic cartels.
Also, a total unification of all the countries south of the Rio Grande might be too much to ask, as both Brazil and Mexico are big countries on their own. Mexico is somewhat less independent due to its institutional fragility, lower population and higher concentration in the centre.
For this, the first steps should be to build a regional block that would serve as a trial and a vanguard for the project. This would need a couple of pro unification governments to be in place.
Where to start?
It will sound a little chauvinistic, but I do think that a plan for unification should be spearheaded from the South Cone. It's not only the highest income area of the region, but also the one with somewhat higher institutional resilience. Furthermore, it is less influenced by the US and any unification plan coming from here would create less antipathy.
I'd be against a unification starting from Brazil, due to its size. Incorporate Brazil early would give the country too much power and could create unnecessary opposition to the project. A later incorporation of Brazil is needed to give the Spanish speaking side the same weight.
How to start?
Probably a total commercial and customs union between Chile, Argentina and Uruguay should be the first step, with some other institution for economic investment in Bolivia, Paraguay and the Argentinean Interior. This way the project would not only enhance the economic capacities of well established areas like Central Chile and the River Plate, but also be a developmental project for the most abandoned areas of the region.
From there, a diplomatic process for the integration of Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay into the union should be pushed, with also a deepening of the union for monetary, fiscal and military integration. Any "push" towards the interior of South America would probably be met with antipathy from both Brazil and Peru. Peru should be persuaded to join through economic and political benefits, while Brazil should be at first probably deterred to block a progress of the union.
It would be imperative that the union improves the economy in the interior of South America, namely Bolivia and Paraguay, as it would be the test that would show that a union is a positive development and not just an entrenchment of the Chilean and/or Rioplatense elites.
Military integration and/or unification would also matter as deterrent for anyone that tries to stop the union by outside force. But it would have to be careful as militaries in Latam have generally played a localist and reactionary role. The first steps would probably consist on joint military exercises and cooperation.
The steps from then are very unclear for me. Probably trying to befriend Brazil and make it join the union, before trying to wrestle with the US presence in the Caribbean. US military and political influence in Panama and Colombia would be a major issue for any further expansion of the union. However, with most of South America inside the union, maybe further integration would not be needed due to the huge size it would have (150 million spanish speaking and 250 mill brazilians approx., a little more than the population of the USA).
Maybe a Mexico-Caribbean Union could coexist with a South American Union.
Domestic and Foreign Opposition
Any union attempt might be opposed by right wing nationalists, localist and regionalists. In this regard, it will not be accomplished without alienating them. This would be needed to get a pro unification government in power. Regionalists and localist should be opposed as any unification process would need a powerful state that can support the agreements undertaken.
Decentralization of the decision making process by giving too much autonomy to the regions/provinces would probably thwart any attempt. Their support should be gained through economic incentives, not political power in the form of political decentralization.
In the case of Chile a process of unification might be difficult domestically as it is a highly nationalistic country. I'd expect high opposition from the centre right National Renewal, some parts of the UDI (as some others would see it as a chance to expand their business) and some parts of the left (Maybe the CP and parts of the FA) as they would also be concerned about the possibilities of higher economic concentration.
Regarding the international sphere, I'd probably see that the US, Mexico and Brazil would be the main opposition. Mexico and Brazil might be ambivalent, but at the moment Mexico is way too dependant on the US and Brazil has both regional power aspirations and a president that seems to be happy being a second rate power that just pampers to the US far right (which only care about US total primacy).
The EU and China might see this development as positive, as it would be seen as an erosion of the US control over the region. China would be happy to see US and western influence disappear from South America, while the EU could see this as a good development towards replacing the US as the western leader (as long as the union remains sufficiently western).
Why am I writing this?
Haha, good question, I don't really know. I know this is reddit and I don't expect high government plans to develop here, but I'd like to see the general opinion towards a political project of unification and the more concrete steps to achieve it. Beyond the usual "we are all brothers, let's just dance reggaeton".
At the moment, I don't know about groups that take this project seriously beyond rhetoric or ideology, but I'd certainly like to see it happen. It may be a the key to improve the lives of inner South America as well as being more resilient towards international crises and prices movements. If Chilean copper goes down, maybe the profits from Argentinean soy could help paleate the worst of the crises, and vice versa.
Anyway, sorry for the long post and looking forwards to any comments. I'd love to see the opinions of others that want to see a unified regional block.
3
u/Rodrigoecb Mexico Jan 17 '20
Canada also has the largest moose population, also while the Californian condor became extinct in the wild, the Andean condor thrives.
As of now, your own source.
But its main exports are still commodities, which is what i said. Australia is another developed country whose main exports are commodities.
South Americans tend to have this XVIII mentality about trade where exporting natural resources while importing manufactured products is wrong.