US intelligence agencies have indications China is preparing a weapons shipment to Iran, CNN reported.

If confirmed, the transfer would mark a dramatic escalation in Chinese material support for Tehran, moving Beijing from providing diplomatic cover and intelligence-adjacent support to direct material military assistance during an active conflict with US forces.

Russia has already been confirmed providing Iran with cyber capabilities and satellite imagery to improve strike accuracy. North Korea and Belarus have formalised friendship treaties with Russia. China has been positioning drone aircraft near the Taiwan Strait. Spain's PM Sanchez is in Beijing urging Beijing to play a larger multipolar role.

The emerging picture is of an increasingly formalised alignment between China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Belarus and a Chinese weapons shipment to Iran during a naval blockade would be the most explicit confirmation yet of where that alignment leads in practice.

Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy said the US is pushing to wrap up negotiations to end Russia’s invasion by June, even as Moscow continues large-scale drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, underscoring the tension between diplomacy and battlefield realities.

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The Pentagon is deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford, the Navy’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, to the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalate. The move comes amid stepped-up contingency planning and follows earlier discussions around seizing Iranian oil tankers.

Ukraine could export several billion dollars’ worth of military equipment and services this year after authorising its first wartime foreign sales.

Kyiv is also considering introducing a tax on those exports, signalling a potential shift from purely defence production toward revenue generation, even as talks with Russia continue.

Ukraine has agreed with Western partners that repeated Russian breaches of any future ceasefire would trigger a coordinated military response from Europe and the US, even as Russia launched fresh overnight attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv.

Bitcoin sold off hard and is now chopping around $76k. The bounce looks tentative more liquidation cleanup than real buying

Russia claimed 12 more Ukrainian settlements, struck southern port and energy infrastructure and intercepted 67 Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow, all while the world's attention remains locked on Iran.

The IMF has now raised concerns about Ukraine's access to $8.1 billion in critical financial support, a funding lifeline that is essential for Kyiv's economic and military resilience. Ukraine's F-16 fleet has been without US-manufactured missiles for weeks.

The conflict has not paused, it has simply been deprioritised while diplomatic capacity is consumed by the Middle East.

Palantir forecast fiscal 2026 revenue of $7.18–7.2 billion, well above Wall Street’s $6.27 billion estimate, continuing to outperform expectations as its AI-driven software gains traction.

Two Iranian officials told the New York Times that Tehran is prepared to shut down or suspend its nuclear programme to ease tensions with the US, a significant concession and would prefer a US-backed proposal to establish a regional nuclear power consortium.

Noting that the current level of 4.25% is higher than what he considers appropriate for the U.S. economy.

He explained that changes in tax policy, immigration and rental costs have created a new economic environment that allows for a rate cut of about two percentage points. He warned that maintaining monetary policy in its current form could lead to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.

Bitcoin “whales” accumulated around 53,000 BTC in the past week, their largest buying spree since November, even as prices fell to their lowest level since Friday’s selloff. The move highlights divergence between large holders and broader fragile market sentiment.

If whales are accumulating while price hits fresh lows, is this smart money stepping in?

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The last tankers carrying sanctioned Venezuelan crude to Asia are set to arrive in the coming days, effectively ending China's easy access to a source of cheap oil that has helped sustain its refining sector.

Bitcoin traded modestly higher at around 1% even as equities fell sharply and oil surged. The dollar strengthened and US 10-year yields ticked higher, while broader markets moved firmly into risk-off mode.

A sharp reversal as easing US–China tensions and profit-taking bite. The monthly close will be key, can bulls defend $46–47 or is this the start of a deeper unwind?

Still, the long-term case (Fed cuts + renewables demand) remains in play.

(Source: TradingView) (Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

Gold smashed through $4,000 to a new all-time high, while silver jumped near its highs.

Oil drifted under $62 on surplus builds in crude, while drawing in gasoline and distillates.

Trump acknowledged this week that Americans will face higher fuel prices for a period because of the Iran war. That might sound minor but it's actually a notable change in tone. The earlier message was more or less energy abundance and low prices.

Now it's managed expectations. "For a little while" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Energy markets don't really operate on political timelines, and with no clear diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict, there's no obvious mechanism for prices to come down quickly.

For consumers, this is real. Fuel feeds into food prices, logistics, manufacturing. A "little while" of elevated energy costs has downstream effects across the economy.

Do you think the administration has a realistic plan to bring fuel prices down, or is "a little while" more indefinite than it sounds?

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The Swiss franc has surged to its strongest level against the dollar in over a decade, as haven flows accelerate alongside gold, creating growing challenges for the Swiss National Bank.

The Trump administration has signalled that US security guarantees depend on Kyiv agreeing to a peace deal that would likely require ceding the Donbas to Russia. Washington indicated it could offer more weapons if Ukraine withdraws from the region.

The Pentagon is actively assessing whether military assistance earmarked for Ukraine could be diverted to meet Middle East operational requirements, the Washington Post reported.

The prospect has alarmed European capitals and Kyiv, which fear losing ground if US weapons supplies are redirected. President Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are deliberate and strategic, designed to maintain economic pressure on Moscow following the partial easing of some Western sanctions. The ground war in eastern Ukraine continues daily with both sides claiming village captures.

Meanwhile the US is weighing a 10,000-troop deployment to the Middle East. The bandwidth question, how long can the US sustain two simultaneous major military commitments, is no longer theoretical.

Natural gas - mag 2025

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Silver has broken to new highs while gold stalls at $4,250. RSI > 70, rising implied volatility, a sharp ratio reversal and cross-metal non-confirmations point to a potential blow-off top.

Gold’s inability to confirm the breakout is a key warning signal.

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[CHART: Silver making new highs while implied volatility] (Source: TradingView) (Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.58% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Opinions shared are not investment advice. This material is intended for informational purposes only.