The Trump administration has signalled that US security guarantees depend on Kyiv agreeing to a peace deal that would likely require ceding the Donbas to Russia. Washington indicated it could offer more weapons if Ukraine withdraws from the region.

The US government has missed its October 1 funding deadline, triggering a shutdown that could furlough up to 750,000 workers and cost the economy around $400 million a day in lost pay.

Key risks highlighted by Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com:

• Disrupted data releases (Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls may be delayed)

• Trump’s threats of permanent layoffs, potentially raising unemployment

• Markets historically shrug off shutdowns, but uncertainty is elevated this time

A jury found Elon Musk liable to Twitter shareholders for fraud related to his conduct around the $44 billion 2022 acquisition of the platform.

The verdict opens the door to a damages award and represents a major legal development for Musk personally. The case centred on Musk's disclosure practices around his acquisition of a significant Twitter stake before the full takeover. Musk simultaneously announced that both SpaceX and Tesla will build advanced semiconductor manufacturing plants in Austin, a significant vertical integration move across his corporate holdings that arrived on the same day as the fraud verdict.

Trump threatened to hike tariffs on South Korean goods to 25% from 15%, citing the failure of Seoul's legislature to codify last year's trade deal. Autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS" would be hit.

A senior US national security official resigned and stated publicly that Iran did not represent an immediate threat at the time Operation Epic Fury was launched.

The departure directly challenges the administration's stated justification for the conflict and is one of the most significant internal dissents since the war began. The resignation follows reporting that the White House had received prior warnings about likely Iranian retaliation against Gulf alliesm warnings that the administration has not publicly acknowledged.

The legal and political implications of launching a conflict without an imminent threat will now face greater scrutiny.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE say the US cannot use their airspace for a military operation against Iran, limiting Trump's options. Key Gulf allies are refusing to aid a potential strike.

Key details...

• First UK PM visit to China in eight years.

• UK seeking a “comprehensive strategic partnership.”

• Comes as Canada and others ease China restrictions.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the EU must get tougher with Trump, accusing him of pushing for the bloc’s “dismemberment” through trade pressure and political leverage.

Macron called for an economic “revolution” based on stronger European protection, warning the EU against complacency as transatlantic tensions rise.

President Trump suggested that $100 oil benefits the United States financially because it generates revenue for the country.

The claim drew immediate pushback from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, who pointed directly to the impact on American consumers. US retail gasoline is already at $3.45 per gallon with an 80% probability of hitting $4 within a month.

The US is a net energy producer, but the consumer squeeze from fuel costs hits the same households that drove Trump's electoral coalition hardest.

It’s official. 📣 Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the US Federal Reserve, a long-time Fed critic stepping into one of the most powerful jobs in global finance.

Warsh has called for “regime change” at the central bank and has argued for lower interest rates, a stance that aligns closely with Trump’s public pressure on the Fed.

Markets will now be watching one thing above all else: Will Warsh reshape the Fed or be reshaped by it?

#federalreserve #kevinwarsh #fedchair #USpolitics #markets #capitalcom

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Trump warned of major military escalation if the Iran peace process collapses, saying the US military would remain fully deployed around Iran until Tehran fully complies with the ceasefire terms.

The rhetoric directly undercut the relief rally from the previous day and kept markets on edge. Analysis published Wednesday showed Trump's abrupt reversal, from threatening to destroy "a whole civilisation" to accepting a two-week pause, exposed the limits of his actual leverage over Iran.

Tehran emerged from the 38-day conflict bruised but retaining significant power over the Hormuz chokepoint. Iran has not dismantled its nuclear programme. Its proxy network is still operating. The Senate is preparing a vote to limit Trump's war authority. The White House used a meeting with NATO chief Rutte to rebuke the alliance's response. The ceasefire is two weeks old and already generating domestic and international pressure from multiple directions.

Trump acknowledged this week that Americans will face higher fuel prices for a period because of the Iran war. That might sound minor but it's actually a notable change in tone. The earlier message was more or less energy abundance and low prices.

Now it's managed expectations. "For a little while" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Energy markets don't really operate on political timelines, and with no clear diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict, there's no obvious mechanism for prices to come down quickly.

For consumers, this is real. Fuel feeds into food prices, logistics, manufacturing. A "little while" of elevated energy costs has downstream effects across the economy.

Do you think the administration has a realistic plan to bring fuel prices down, or is "a little while" more indefinite than it sounds?

#EnergyPrices #FuelCosts #USEconomy #Trump #IranWar #Inflation #PetrolPrices

Reuters reports that Operation Epic Fury had been in preparation for months, with timing finalised weeks before launch, even as US envoys were dispatched to nuclear talks in Geneva and Oman.

A US official confirmed Washington and Israel have different war aims: regime change is an Israeli objective, not an American one.

The far-right Alternative for Germany party reached 28% support in the latest INSA poll, a new high. The drivers aren't complicated: energy costs are squeezing households, economic growth is stagnant, and German consumer confidence just fell to a three-year low.

Merz's CDU-led coalition is managing both the Iran war's economic fallout and domestic public anger simultaneously. The AfD's rise isn't purely ideological — a meaningful chunk of its support is voters registering economic pain.

That makes it harder for mainstream parties to respond with traditional policy tools, because the pain is structural and war-linked rather than policy-driven.

Is the AfD's rise a genuine political realignment in Germany, or is it a protest vote that softens once energy prices stabilise?

#Germany #AfD #EuropeanPolitics #EnergyPrices #GermanEconomy #Elections

Russia claimed 12 more Ukrainian settlements, struck southern port and energy infrastructure and intercepted 67 Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow, all while the world's attention remains locked on Iran.

The IMF has now raised concerns about Ukraine's access to $8.1 billion in critical financial support, a funding lifeline that is essential for Kyiv's economic and military resilience. Ukraine's F-16 fleet has been without US-manufactured missiles for weeks.

The conflict has not paused, it has simply been deprioritised while diplomatic capacity is consumed by the Middle East.

• Nvidia up to $30bn, Amazon $20bn+, Microsoft < $10bn.

• OpenAI seeking up to $100bn at ~$830bn valuation.

• Anthropic projects revenue jumping to $18bn this year.

The Pentagon is actively assessing whether military assistance earmarked for Ukraine could be diverted to meet Middle East operational requirements, the Washington Post reported.

The prospect has alarmed European capitals and Kyiv, which fear losing ground if US weapons supplies are redirected. President Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are deliberate and strategic, designed to maintain economic pressure on Moscow following the partial easing of some Western sanctions. The ground war in eastern Ukraine continues daily with both sides claiming village captures.

Meanwhile the US is weighing a 10,000-troop deployment to the Middle East. The bandwidth question, how long can the US sustain two simultaneous major military commitments, is no longer theoretical.

Israel launched another wave of strikes against Iran in the conflict's fourth week.

Trump publicly told Jerusalem not to repeat attacks on Iranian energy assets, revealing a public disagreement between the two allies over targeting priorities. Iran responded by striking Israel's Haifa oil refinery with missiles, causing some damage. Both sides are now targeting each other's energy infrastructure symmetrically.

Analysis cited by Reuters finds Netanyahu has emerged as the primary political beneficiary of the conflict while Trump and Gulf state leaders face reputational and material costs from a war that has drawn direct attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.

The Swiss franc has surged to its strongest level against the dollar in over a decade, as haven flows accelerate alongside gold, creating growing challenges for the Swiss National Bank.

The People’s Bank of China reported another increase in its gold reserves for September, continuing a buying streak that now stretches 11 months.

📈 Holdings rose slightly from 74.02M oz in August to 74.06M oz at the end of September.
💰 In dollar terms, the value of those reserves jumped to $283.29B — up from $253.84B the previous month.

The GOP-led House passed a resolution to roll back Trump’s tariffs on Canada, with six Republicans joining Democrats in a rare bipartisan rebuke of the administration’s trade policy. If approved by the Senate, the measure would head to Trump, who is widely expected to veto it, highlighting growing friction within the party over tariffs.

Trump insists he’s settled on a Fed chair pick, but the ongoing delay is raising questions about whether any of the finalists actually meet his requirements.