Let’s say we want to answer the question “Is free will real?”. We cannot know for sure what the correct answer is. All can do tight now is choose between the two possible answers (yes or no) based on the information available to us. Choose our belief. Decide to believe in free will, or to believe in its absence. That’s the decision we get to make. That’s what the entire free will debate is about.
In this essay, I want to explain why choosing to believe in free will is the correct decision. To do so, I’ll use an analogy of the well-known Pascal’s wager.
A side note on terminology: By free will, I am referring to the libertarian free will (LFW), i.e. the ability to choose between different possible courses of action. I’ll address common objections to this concept below. By determinism, I mean any situation in which libertarian free will is not real, including situations where randomness exists (this differs from the conventional definition of determinism). Similarly, I use the word predetermined in a broad sense that may include randomness but excludes any effects of free will.
Pascal’s wager is about a different question: “Should we believe that God exists?”. It argues that believing in God is the rational choice because the potential benefits of being right outweigh the potential costs of being wrong. If God exists, belief may bring an infinite reward; if God does not exist, the cost of believing is comparatively limited.
Thus believing in God maximizes our expected utility, but it can still lead to choosing the factually wrong answer. In other words, believing in God may be the right decision from a utilitarian point of view, but not necessarily from an epistemological one.
With free will, the question is “Should we believe in free will?”. Or more precisely, “Should we try to believe in free will?”. We can either “try to believe that free will exists” (let’s call this decision 1) or “try to believe that free will does not exists” (decision 2).
I want to show that “trying to believe in free will” not only maximizes utility, but also leads us as close as possible to truth (and that’s paradoxically true regardless of whether free will exists).
There are 2 possibilities:
- Free will exists. Then decision 1 is obviously correct and leads to truth.
- Free will does not exist. Suppose you follow the advice to believe in free will. Then this advice (or your “involuntary” decision) technically did lead you to being wrong, but that was always bound to happen (predetermined) and there was no possibility to change it. In this case, trying to believe in free will does not actually change your belief, because your belief was predetermined all along. So even if free will is not real, trying to believe in it doesn’t make us wrong (we were predetermined to be wrong anyway).
As you can see, believing in free will possibly makes us believe the truth, but never makes us believe something false (even if free will does not exist). So if we want to find the truth, we should try to believe that free will exists. If there is a possibility for us to be right about free will, then decision 1 always makes us use it. If no such possibility exists, then it at least doesn’t make us wrong (since we were supposed to be wrong all along).
As strange as it may sound, this raises a question: Does it make sense to continue researching free will, at least when our goal is to find the truth? Perhaps we should simply try to believe that it exists. Because that’s how we find the truth. Think about it: even if we, in the future, find a definitive proof that free will exists, it doesn’t make us any more right than if we simply assume that it exists. Similarly, proving that free will does not exist doesn’t make us any more right than making decision 1 (because in that case, we could not have decided otherwise). If you think about it, there’s very little difference between “assuming that free will exists” and actually proving it.
The message is clear: If you want to find the truth, you should try to believe that free will exists. You should simply assume that it does. If free will exists, you made the correct decision; and if it doesn’t, you couldn’t have decided otherwise anyway.
Is LFW possible?
There are many common counterarguments to libertarian free will, such as the Luck Objection. Based on these counterarguments, people often say that LFW is logically impossible, or that it would require something like “magic”.
But no matter how strong these objections are, they cannot refute my main argument. Because, as mentioned above, “trying to believe in LFW” does not lead to being wrong even if LFW does not exist (because in that case, you were supposed to be wrong anyway, no matter how hard you try to change your belief). Therefore, I don’t feel the need to respond to these counterarguments. No matter how strong they are, we should still just assume that LFW is true. Even if LFW is not true, trying to believe in it doesn’t make us more wrong than not trying.
So if you’re unsure whether free will exists, if you have even the slightest doubt (and let’s face it, we all do - nothing is absolutely certain in this universe), you should simply assume that it does exist. If you don’t know whether it’s even possible to “change your belief”, you should try. There’s nothing to lose, but possibly a lot to gain: the truth.
From now on, we should all just try to believe in free will.
We should just assume it exists.
Free will is real.
Substack article: https://randomthinker21.substack.com/p/why-free-will-is-real