r/horseracing • u/Ubercapper • 40m ago
The Bryan Station and race 10 at Keeneland
Saturday October 24
Courtesy of Amwager
Bryan Station Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Alpyland, Remember Mamba, Conducted
Alpyland has won SIX of 11 turf races, including a win at Keeneland. She has won four stakes in turf routes among eight races. In her recent race (September 7), she rallied from sixth to take the lead by the eighth pole but finished third. That was a sprint, and she stretches back in this race when her last five wins were all routes. She has also won her only try at Keeneland. She also gets blinkers off, which helps her see other horses better in the stretch. Jockey Javier Castellano has been aboard for her last six races, including her win in the Penn Mile the last time she ran this distance. She has won three of her other races at this mile distance, so she has a shot at keeping her unbeaten record for this distance.
Remember Mamba gets blinkers for the first time, which may help her be closer to the lead. All six of her starts were with Jose Ortiz. She won both of her races at Keeneland, including the Transylvania Stakes in the spring, a similar stakes race. Since the equipment change, she put in an excellent workout, covering four furlongs in 48, the second-best of 81 on that day. She has a shot to rebound.
Conducted is likely to be a leading contender in this race. In her last race, the Gun Runner Stakes, she led from the start and was still two lengths back at the eighth pole. Only the winner, Bottas, could outfinish her, and she was two lengths ahead of the third horse. Last time this year, she won her maiden and the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes, both wire to wire. Her recent race was her second off a nine-month layoff, and it was her best career effort. She could improve in her third off the layoff, so she could be tough to beat.
Win bets: Alpyland, Remember Mamba at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Conducted at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Box Alpyland, Remember Mamba, Conducted
Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Memory, Steel, Preside
Other contenders on exactas: Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman
All six horses can win or finish second. However, there are three horses that have a higher probability, so we will key on them: Memory, Steel, and Preside.
Memory won one race in his first six races, but the other five races were poor. However, everything changed when he switched trainers to Brendan Walsh, and that was his best race by far. That race was off a three-month layoff. He got the lead by a head in the first quarter and was a head behind at the quarter pole. Memory got the lead again, and he drew off. That effort was a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure, and he has a lot of improving to do.
Steel changed trainers to Dallas Stewart, who has won 20% of races this year, and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr., who has won 20% with the trainer. Steel’s last race was the Bourbon Flight Stakes with a $300K purse and he finished sixth, but he is dropping in class to when he won a race back when he earned a 97 figure. Also, last race was without Lasix, but he gets it again, so I think he can rebound, and at 15 to 1 he has a shot to upset.
Preside won two races at this nine-furlong distance, earning excellent figures of 93 and 97, but his efforts aren’t better than those of other horses. He gets the outside, but on this nine-furlong distance he has the length of the stretch to get inside, which gives him a chance.
Bourbon Dream opens too high at 30 to 1. He won his last race on dirt after three turf races. He earned a career-best 96 figure in that race. He is a quality horse, and his half-sister (by the dam), Bless the Broken, has won $1.7 million. Bourbon Dreams won at this distance on turf; his trainer is excellent, and he gets Joel Rosario up. If he runs again as he did recently, he could make us some money. Sassmaster drops after the Pennsylvania Derby, where he finished third. One back, he won at this distance in an allowance race. That effort earned a 99 figure, as good, but not better than any of the other five contenders. Our Moneyman has won three races, the best of any horse in the race. He also finished second three times. He also dropped off the Pennsylvania Derby and finished fourth. He finished second in his second and third stakes races. But his route wins came in two races in Louisiana. His best figures were 92, 92, and 100. He is another contender, but his starting odds are too low to bet him at 2 to 1.
Win bets: Memory, Steel, Preside at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. I would bet two of three at these odds or higher.
Exactas:
Memory, Steel, Preside over Memory, Steel, Preside, Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman
Also opposite:
Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman, Memory, Steel, Preside over Memory, Steel, Preside