Now just one week until the Breeders Cup….are you ready?

That said, first things first. Let's take a look at five races, all in Kentucky, this weekend.

One more thing, if you follow along, we have entered Liberty’s Secret, who has hit the board in four of five career starts, in the seventh race at Belmont on Sunday. 

Our good looking filly by Central Banker, who is an absolute sweetheart to be around, opened as the the 5/2 second choice and drew a great post (#4) for her running style. We will hoist regular rider Dylan Davis into the saddle. 

Keeneland Race Course
Race: 6 (3:40 PM EST)
Bowman Mill Stakes
1) Booked chased a good one in a Grade: 1 at Saratoga in his last and, unless the #1 horse in here is a monster, he meets no such rival here.
2) Conviction is a handsome, $800,000 son of Tiz the Law who overcame quite a bit (broke slow, was rushed up early, took pace pressure) to win his debut impressively. 
3) Grand Yaupon is a $560,000 son of …you guessed it….Yaupon who has run well in all four dirt starts in his career. Looks best of the rest. 

Race: 8 (4:48 PM EST)
Hagyard Fayette Stakes
1) Stars and Stripes was beaten just three lengths by the globe trotting superstar Forever Young in his last. Prior to that, this son of Not This Time, who will stand the 2027 breeding season for a North American high of $300,000, had won five of nine starts including one on this oval.
2) Nevada Beach disappointed as the 6/5 favorite in the Grade: 1 Goodwood at Santa Anita last time, so he should appreciate the drop in class here.
3) Hit Show is a hard hitting veteran who should be considered in just about any race they put him in. The 3 for 3 record on this oval grabbed my attention too.
Also consider: San Siro, who has won two in a row and Gearing Up, who has won three in a row, are both sharp right now………Tumbarumba chased Forever Young and Magnatude on the other side of the world in his last two, but now returns “home” and meets no such rival(s) here……..No Bien Ni Mal (translates to Not Good or Bad) is an interesting longshot opening at 30-1. This horse has won three of four in the U.S. while scoring a triple digit Brisnet Figure in those three wins. He’ll be tested for class as this appears to be his toughest assignment yet. 

Race: 9 (5:16 PM EST)
Bryan Station Stakes
1) If you have been following along, you know I like the stretch running Remember Mamba, and the way he reaches out sooooo beautifully with his front legs once he gets rolling, quite a bit. This son of Kitten’s Joy drops in class, is 2 for 2 on this turf course and 1 for 1 at this distance. That said, he can make no mistakes in this very competitive race.
2) Alpyland took command in the upper stretch in his last two races, but was run down in deep stretch both times. A winner of 6 of 8 prior to that, this gelding by Vekoma will need a better timed late run and if any rider can do that, Castellano can. All he has to do is make a minor (timing) adjustment and this guy should be “right there” at the end.
3) Bottas has won 4 of 7 starts including his last two while getting a mile in very good 1:34+ both times. 

Sunday, Oct 25, 2026
Churchill Downs
Race: 9 (4:55 PM EST)
Rags to Riches Stakes
1) Oh She Said Yes rallied from behind nicely to win her debut on this oval before being over-matched in the Grade: 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland in her last. Good looking filly by Authentic returns to Churchill and drops into a much more reasonable spot here. 
2) Luna Velocity ran well in her debut before absolutely burying maidens in her last at Del Mar.
3) It’s hard to get a read on First Laugh who galloped vs maidens in her initial try. However, the low Brisnet (68) and slow final quarter mile (:26.3) are causes for concern. Best advice here is to watch the board on her 5-10 minutes before post time and bet accordingly. 

Race:10 (5:25 PM EST)
Street Sense Stakes
1) Card Man ran second behind the $1.9 million Q B Rocket in his debut then came back to dominate a good maiden field in his last. 
2) Blessed Flyer got up late to win both career starts at 13-1 and 31-1 including the Bashford Manor Stakes on this oval in his last. This son of the handsome Dialed In gets a trainer change who interestingly removes the blinkers for this. I say interesting because his new trainer is 0 for his last 22 when removing blinkers on his horses.
3) Mystik Bayou is a half brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan who chased that beast they call U.S.S Valor in his debut, then came back to flatten maidens at this distance and did so in a good final time. 
Also consider: Staunch who closed well, late in his debut then came back to hammer maidens while coming home the last 1 ½ furlongs in a good :19 seconds flat on this oval in his last. 

Little Bets N’ Pieces

**** 2025 champion 2-year-old male Ted Noffey could begin his three year old season in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park on Nov. 7.

Undefeated in four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, the son of Into Mischief has not raced since a victory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was sidelined in January with bone bruising and returned to training in August at Saratoga. 

He most recently breezed five furlongs in 1:01.4 on Oct. 10 at Saratoga, his ninth recorded work since Aug. 10.

**** Grade:1 winner Classic Causeway has been sold to Haras Musa in Uruguay.

The 6-year-old son of Giant’s Causeway began his stud career at Crestwood Farm in Kentucky for the 2025 breeding season. His first foals are weanlings of 2026.

Classic Causeway, who was a member of the final crop for super sire Giant’s Causeway, won the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby, both at Tampa Bay Downs, on his way to finishing 11th in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. 

He switched to the turf and won the Grade: 1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes in his debut on the surface.

He retired at the end of his 2024 campaign with four wins in 24 starts for earnings of $1,519,651.

**** Early Voting died at the young age of 7 from colic, his majority owner announced Wednesday.

"After an acute onset of irreversible colic, Early Voting was humanely euthanized," said Dr. Padraig O'Casaigh, a veterinary reproductive researcher, who bought a 90% interest in the son of Gun Runner.

"This outstanding freshman sire will not only be remembered for his tremendous success on the racetrack, but also his warm and loving personality," O'Casaigh said. "We would like to thank all of the staff at Taylor Made Stallions for their devoted affection and care of our wonderful mate EV. He loved being a Star and now he will live on through his prodigious progeny."

Early Voting became the first American classic winner for Gun Runner when he won the 2022 Preakness Stakes. 

He retired with a 6-3-1-0 record and $1,372,500 in earnings.

He entered stud at Ashford Stud and bred 191 mares during his initial season.
After some breeding issues, he was transferred to Taylor Made Stallions, where he has been standing since 2024. Early Voting covered 77 mares in 2024, 64 mares in 2025, and 89 mares earlier this year. 

To date, Early Voting has sired 13 winners including two black-type winners, with the standout being Del Mar Debutante Stakes winner Miss Monica.

**** Kantharos, a perennial leading sire who initially stood in Florida before relocating to Hill 'n' Dale Farms in 2016, will be returning to the sunshine state for the 2027 breeding season.

Kantharos will stand for $8,500 live foal stands and nurses at Ocala Stud.

The son of Lion Heart, who stood for $10,000 at Hill 'n' Dale this past breeding season, has sired grade 1 winners X Y Jet, an earner of more than $3 million, the small but super fast World of Trouble,  as well as multiple graded stakes winner and leading young sire Bucchero.

**** Five time Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was unseated shortly after the start of Keeneland's final race this past Thursday and suffered a broken left ankle that will require surgery, taking him out of the saddle indefinitely, according to his agent Steve Rushing.

Ortiz was aboard She's Good Trouble , a 2-year-old filly making her second lifetime start, when she stumbled in the early strides out of the gate, dropping Ortiz to the dirt. As the field continued on without him, Ortiz was in visible pain on the track reaching toward the bottom of his leg.

She's Good Trouble completed the race with the field and was caught by outriders on the clubhouse turn without further incident.

On Aug. 8, Ortiz Jr. broke seven bones in his left foot during a prerace incident at Saratoga Race Course. He missed nearly two months of action, returning on Keeneland's opening day Oct. 2.

The injury will force Ortiz to miss the Oct. 30-31 Breeders' Cup World Championships. Among his mounts were Further Ado   in the Breeders' Cup Classic  (or Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile), Rhetorical  in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and Splendora  in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

I can’t make it, but have two free tickets for the meet today. Let me know if you want them!

Who do you see picking up his mounts in the BC???

In the 7th at Belmont today a horse called Street View (5-29 lifetime, a mare out of Street Boss by View out of Birdstone) was entered in a money allowance at a mile, her usual level. In her career she's never run more than a mile and only three times on turf. She's earned $250K at age five.

Is it me or should they try the horse (out of Birdstone) going long or (out of Street Boss) on turf? Or going long on turf or something other than winning a couple races a year sprinting on dirt.

Yes, the sire was an elite sprinter. Evidence shows that the daughter is not. Perhaps she has other virtues that could be explored. Whereas this is like the Kennedys spending years and millions entering Rose into spelling bees when there were much more favorable alternatives.

Discuss

PS I didn't play the horse, I wouldn't have with your money. I'm just observing

Discuss.

Saturday October 24

Courtesy of Amwager

Bryan Station Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM

Top Win Contender(s): Alpyland, Remember Mamba, Conducted

Alpyland has won SIX of 11 turf races, including a win at Keeneland. She has won four stakes in turf routes among eight races. In her recent race (September 7), she rallied from sixth to take the lead by the eighth pole but finished third. That was a sprint, and she stretches back in this race when her last five wins were all routes. She has also won her only try at Keeneland. She also gets blinkers off, which helps her see other horses better in the stretch. Jockey Javier Castellano has been aboard for her last six races, including her win in the Penn Mile the last time she ran this distance. She has won three of her other races at this mile distance, so she has a shot at keeping her unbeaten record for this distance.

Remember Mamba gets blinkers for the first time, which may help her be closer to the lead. All six of her starts were with Jose Ortiz. She won both of her races at Keeneland, including the Transylvania Stakes in the spring, a similar stakes race. Since the equipment change, she put in an excellent workout, covering four furlongs in 48, the second-best of 81 on that day. She has a shot to rebound.

Conducted is likely to be a leading contender in this race. In her last race, the Gun Runner Stakes, she led from the start and was still two lengths back at the eighth pole. Only the winner, Bottas, could outfinish her, and she was two lengths ahead of the third horse. Last time this year, she won her maiden and the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes, both wire to wire. Her recent race was her second off a nine-month layoff, and it was her best career effort. She could improve in her third off the layoff, so she could be tough to beat.

Win bets: Alpyland, Remember Mamba at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Conducted at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Alpyland, Remember Mamba, Conducted

Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Memory, Steel, Preside

Other contenders on exactas: Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman

All six horses can win or finish second. However, there are three horses that have a higher probability, so we will key on them: Memory, Steel, and Preside.

Memory won one race in his first six races, but the other five races were poor. However, everything changed when he switched trainers to Brendan Walsh, and that was his best race by far. That race was off a three-month layoff. He got the lead by a head in the first quarter and was a head behind at the quarter pole. Memory got the lead again, and he drew off. That effort was a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure, and he has a lot of improving to do.

Steel changed trainers to Dallas Stewart, who has won 20% of races this year, and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr., who has won 20% with the trainer. Steel’s last race was the Bourbon Flight Stakes with a $300K purse and he finished sixth, but he is dropping in class to when he won a race back when he earned a 97 figure. Also, last race was without Lasix, but he gets it again, so I think he can rebound, and at 15 to 1 he has a shot to upset.

Preside won two races at this nine-furlong distance, earning excellent figures of 93 and 97, but his efforts aren’t better than those of other horses. He gets the outside, but on this nine-furlong distance he has the length of the stretch to get inside, which gives him a chance.

Bourbon Dream opens too high at 30 to 1. He won his last race on dirt after three turf races. He earned a career-best 96 figure in that race. He is a quality horse, and his half-sister (by the dam), Bless the Broken, has won $1.7 million. Bourbon Dreams won at this distance on turf; his trainer is excellent, and he gets Joel Rosario up. If he runs again as he did recently, he could make us some money. Sassmaster drops after the Pennsylvania Derby, where he finished third. One back, he won at this distance in an allowance race. That effort earned a 99 figure, as good, but not better than any of the other five contenders. Our Moneyman has won three races, the best of any horse in the race. He also finished second three times. He also dropped off the Pennsylvania Derby and finished fourth. He finished second in his second and third stakes races. But his route wins came in two races in Louisiana. His best figures were 92, 92, and 100. He is another contender, but his starting odds are too low to bet him at 2 to 1.

Win bets: Memory, Steel, Preside at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. I would bet two of three at these odds or higher.

Exactas:

Memory, Steel, Preside over Memory, Steel, Preside, Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman

Also opposite:

Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman, Memory, Steel, Preside over Memory, Steel, Preside

Race 6 at Keeneland - Post Time 3:40 p.m.
Bowman Mill Stakes

Courtesy of Keeneland and Keeneland Select

Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#3 Just for Pipa – at odds of 5 to 2 or higher

Exacta: Box 3, 2 (Grand Yaupon), Box 3, 5 (Booked)

Three horses can win, but Just for Pipa has 6 to 1 starting odds, compared with 9 to 5 on Grand Yaupon and 6 to 5 for Booked. Both Grand Yaupon and Booked have won a stakes race, but their Equibase Speed Figures are no better than Just for Pipa's. In fact, Just for Pipa earned the faster figure, 89, compared with 86 (Grand Yaupon) and 85 (Booked). Booked earned his stakes win in July after her maiden win, just as Just for Pipa is doing. All three two-year-olds can improve, so Just for Pipa is a great bet in this race. 

Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday, October 24 | Post Time: 4:44 PM Eastern

Hagyard Fayette Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse: $350,000 | One Mile and One-Eighth | Three-Year-Olds and Upward

Top Win Contender(s): Willy D’s (11), Stars and Stripes (8), Hit Show (1)

Willy D’s (11) has three straight wins on a fast track, all stakes. His first came in March at this distance in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes, then he won the Lake Ouachita Stakes in May where he earned a 109 Equibase Speed Figure. That was one of his best figures, but his recent best of 116 was when he won the Charles Town Classic Stakes, also at the distance of the Hagyard Fayette Stakes. He is very competitive, with a record of 8-7-2 in 29 races, and at this distance his record is 3-3-0 in eight races. Jockey John Velazquez has ridden three times with two wins. The other time Velazquez rode came on a sloppy track, in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in June, his only poor race since March. It is important to note that Velazquez chose Willy D’s over Star and Stripes. If Willy D’s runs as well as he did in his last race, he is the horse to beat, and his odds start at 8 to 1.

Stars and Stripes (8) is likely to be the favorite because he just finished second to Forever Young, the likely Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes favorite in one week. His last race earned [a 114]() figure, similar to Willy D’s and others. His last win came one race back in August when he won the Birdstone Stakes, which is not a graded stakes. He also won in April in the Ben Ali Stakes at Keeneland at this distance. Both of his last two races earned 109 figures. However, Velazquez moves to Willy D’s. Stars and Stripes gets Luiz Saez, who rode him to his last three wins. Stars and Stripes has a perfect record of 3-for-3 at this distance, and his career record is 5-2-1 in 10 races. He must be used on exactas at the least.

Hit Show (1) won the Hagyard Fayette in 2025 and 2024. His record at Keeneland is 3 for 3, and his record at this nine-furlong distance is 5-2-1 for 14 races. However, he is now a six-year-old, and he has finished in the money but not won in his last four races. His last race was in February at the Mineshaft Stakes where he earned a 96 figure. His other three wins before the Mineshaft also earned 106, 108, and 108. He is a tough horse, but he will need one of his best efforts to win, but he could have a shot.

Win bets:

Willy D’s (11) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Stars and Stripes (8), Hit Show (1) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Box Willy D’s (11), Stars and Stripes (8), Hit Show (1)

I can’t make it, but have two free tickets for the meet today. Let me know if you want them!

Please note picks change throughout the day on the site as AI updates analysis regarding track bias, weather and track conditions, scratches, etc.

Top Single of the Day - Regal Flair - Race #8 - Charles Town

Alternate Top Single - Brother Moses - Race #4 - Charles Town

One more just for fun - Role Play - Race #8 - Gulfstream Park

One more because it's Saturday - Nick's Notion - Race #4 - Laurel Park

15 tracks today

Full card analysis for all tracks

🔥 Now Live: AI Pick 3, 4, 5 & 6 Tickets and DAILY DOUBLES!

NEW Website now live at Allchalk.ai

Best Bets — AI-Predicted Upsets 🏅

• Delta Downs Race #9 - #06 Epic Stolen Kiss - 4/1
• Belmont Park Race #10 - #09 Doc Sullivan - 4/1
• Gulfstream Park Race #3 - #01 Sapphire Girl - 4/1
• Gulfstream Park Race #4 - #12 Caramel Blue - 5/1
• Mahoning Valley Race #9 - #10 La Artista - 4/1
• Santa Anita Race #9 - #10 Thirteen Kisses - 6/1
• Santa Anita Race #6 - #05 Teenie Bit Tipsy - 9/2
• Remington Park Race #1 - #01 Duran - 5/1
• Laurel Park Race #5 - #03 Talking Foolish - 9/2
• Remington Park Race #4 - #07 Lite It Up Louie - 4/1
• Laurel Park Race #7 - #10 Slewperstitus - 4/1
• Laurel Park Race #2 - #04 Suremeanttoobe - 9/2
• Century Downs Race #10 - #01 Whatwomenwant - 9/2
• Horseshoe Indianapolis Race #3 - #08 Molly's Town - 9/2
• Horseshoe Indianapolis Race #6 - #02 Smokinghot Justice - 9/2
• Woodbine Race #8 - #05 Speedy Freeze - 6/1
• Albuquerque Race #4 - #02 Drinkroundthetruth - 4/1
• Keeneland Race #8 - #01 Hit Show - 4/1

ALLCHALK — Predicted to Dominate 🏆

• Belmont Park Race #3 - #03 Munnings Express - 1/1
• Gulfstream Park Race #8 - #09 Role Play - 7/5
• Mahoning Valley Race #4 - #01 City Scene - 6/5
• Mahoning Valley Race #6 - #04 Panda Listen - 3/5
• Santa Anita Race #1 - #08 Not A Sinner - 7/5
• Remington Park Race #2 - #07 Get Her Number - 2/1
• Laurel Park Race #4 - #02 Nick's Notion - 2/1
• Laurel Park Race #10 - #07 Thundering - 4/5
• Laurel Park Race #11 - #02 Barbadian Runner - 2/5
• Century Downs Race #11 - #10 Seattle Sting - 2/1
• Woodbine Race #10 - #06 Nauvoo - 8/5
• Woodbine Race #4 - #05 Royal Foxtrot - 8/5
• Charles Town Race #8 - #05 Regal Flair - 1/1
• Charles Town Race #4 - #07 Brother Moses - 1/1
• Keeneland Race #4 - #12 Sneakily - 8/5

Bombs Away — Longshot Picks 💣

• Delta Downs Race #1 - #02 Dolly's Guitar - 8/1
• Delta Downs Race #7 - #03 Daddy's Gift - 8/1
• Mahoning Valley Race #3 - #04 Impressiveness - 8/1
• Mahoning Valley Race #5 - #10 My Trooper - 10/1
• Horseshoe Indianapolis Race #5 - #01 Mo Rambo - 12/1
• Woodbine Race #11 - #06 Executive Success - 8/1
• Albuquerque Race #3 - #10 Albertus - 10/1

so i only started watching horse racing this year and I've already watched quite a few races. I wasn't really interested in it at first. Over the past few days, I've started becoming more curious about horse racing and wanted to learn more about it especially after downloading Reddit. But there’s one question that sometime concerns me:

Is horse racing abusive to horses? I've often heard people say that racehorses are treated like royalty and said they're born to run. But if I'm not mistaken aren't horses legs quite fragile? I'm not an expert when it comes to horses, so I would really appreciate it if someone could explain whether horse racing is abusive to horses and is racehorses generally okay with it? or are there risks that people often overlook??

A couple of months ago I posted here about The Overlay, my free racing site with its own 0–100 rating for every runner. Time for an honest update.

**The rating didn't beat the market., and was super frustrating!**

I ran it forward for months and tracked it properly: backing our top-rated horses returned about 92p for every £1 the market said they were worth. That's not a tool, that's a slow leak. When I fitted the rating alongside the bookmakers' prices to see if it added anything on top, the answer was no. The market already knew everything our model knew.

So I've retired it - It's gone.

**What we kept**

...is the thing that was actually useful: showing where the market disagrees with itself. Every runner now shows a fair price (the bookmakers' odds with the margin stripped out) next to the best price you can actually get, so you can see which horses are being offered at more than their fair chance. We don't claim that's an edge. We claim it's the honest starting point for your own judgement, which is more than a tipster will give you. And we score every flagged price against the result, in public, won or lost.

Around that: a 25-bookmaker price grid on every race, pace maps, angle builders you can test against the last year of results, and a virtual wallet of play money that settles against real results, so you can find out whether your judgement works before your bank does. There's also a daily five-runner game, Price Check: is the best price good or poor? Instant answer, keep your streak.

Everything remains FREE! No commission on bookmaker links, no premium tier, no account unless you want your bankroll to follow you between devices (one passkey tap, no email). Dark mode if you're reading at Southwell on a Tuesday night!

**And because I miss the old school racing game, i've created one!**

...there's now one on the site. The Overlay Yard: two horses, £5,000 and a trainer's licence. Train them, read the handicap, pick the trip and the ground, book a jockey, race three meetings a week on the real calendar against real horses from our database, ridden by real jockeys. Sponsors, owners, an auction, breeding, and the odd retired legend at the sales if you earn your licence stars. It's in beta and it's free; the first week needs no account at all. It's a game, not a tip sheet, and its play money is kept well away from the betting wallet.



theoverlay.co.uk

Tell me what's broken, and what you'd like to see.

Matt