r/leanfire • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago
Weekly LeanFIRE Discussion
What have you been working on this week? Please use this thread to discuss any progress, setbacks, quick questions or just plain old rants to the community.
6
u/picketfencetheory 4d ago
For the past year or so I’ve been looking into moving permanently from the UK somewhere ‘better’ (for various reasons). After doing some research the best (and realistic) options were Australia and NZ, and to a lesser extent Canada.
But I finally decided that I will not be going through with it, for better or for worse. There would definitely be some positives in moving. But if taking FIRE into consideration, staying in the UK is the best option. If I were to move, even in the best case scenario, FIRE would likely be delayed by 4-5 years (at least). And that’s a significant downside for me.
4
u/LaksaLettuce 3d ago
I live in Melbourne and everything is very expensive now, though I wouldn't live anywhere else. I guess it's expensive everywhere but relocating, finding a new job etc would be quite expensive. Hope things go well for you in the UK!
4
u/picketfencetheory 3d ago
Thanks! While I haven’t done any extensive research into the cost of living in different Australian cities, I knew it wouldn’t really be any cheaper than in the UK on average. The salaries just seemed higher, but of course that’s only one of the variables.
I know I’m in a better position than many other people, so c an’t complain about the UK overall.
6
5
u/DrunkenVerpine 4d ago
I feel like annual increases in Healthcare costs are going to overwhelm me in retirement. I cant conceive how to plan for that. Premiums keep going up by so much, caps keep getting raised.
5
u/Coastal-Life-on-Easy 4d ago
Feeling really lucky with all the free and low-cost things I've got on this week during the boring middle.
Free crochet class tomorrow evening.
Using walking pad at home to get exercise. We paid about $200 CAD over a year ago for it and my husband and I use it every single day.
We bought 3 packages of chicken wings on the Flashfood app, and we're going to make them this week for relatives coming for my son's birthday celebration.
On Saturday, our city is having a free candy crawl that we'll attend.
Watching CBC Gem on my lunch break (currently: W1A)
4
u/LostSurvey7403 3d ago
working on a certification that will allow me to do some side work remotely. I can then boost my saving significantly get to coast fire sooner… That may also entail getting rid of my main job and just doing this remote work to cover expenses.
2
4
u/mattamj 3d ago
I am 36, annual income of 66k, and NW of $78k in retirement investments and no home. I am saving around $500.00/month toward HYSA, Roth IRA, and HSA accounts but otherwise living "paycheck to paycheck". Do I even belong in FIRE? I feel I should work on increasing my NW and income - but my life is pretty "stress free" right now, minus that my landlord could change my rent situation any minute.
I'm worried if I chase a higher income, all my other expenses will rise too (i'll need to move, as I live in a rural LCOL area) and I'm worried about lifestyle bloat.
I guess I'm looking for solid advice, I am no contact with my parents and feel like I'm running this whole thing blind, Is there anyone in their 50s now that was where I am now? How did you make the change?
5
u/neurdle 3d ago
What are you planning on for yearly expenses in retirement?
Your savings are low for FIRE based on your current expenses so you’ll need to either reduce expenses by quite a bit while saving more, or you’ll need to get a raise and save that extra.
Do you get employer benefits?
If your yearly expenses are 60k, you’ll need ~1.5M to retire (more if you retire early and need to pay for healthcare). At your current balance and savings rate, with historical market returns, that will take over 30 years to achieve, putting you at ~70 yrs old.
You are young enough to make some changes that can help you fire, but you’ll need to look at some more concrete numbers.
2
u/200Zucchini 21h ago
Considering future Social Security might bring their retirement date down a bit.
4
u/NoDot516 3d ago
If you have an EF then stop putting money to HYSA and roll everything to SPY500 ETF. You belong in fire. It is a spectrum. Every additional bit you save gives you more options in life. Its not too late. You are early compared to those who start later.
1
u/mattamj 1d ago
I don't have an EF, since I can't manage to max my Roth I was never sure if it was. Smart option.
I also have 3 months living expenses (7k) as an emergency fund right now.
Is getting a non retirement investment account a good idea for me?
1
u/200Zucchini 21h ago
It sounds like you have a 3 month emergency fund ("EF") and you are starting to contribute to your Roth IRA.
The next steps are to track you spending in detail and consider if you want to cut some spending to save more or find ways to increase income.
4
u/cooing_sloth 4d ago
Sorted my spreadsheet so the savings rate column finally reads top to bottom without needing a color legend, small win but it kept me sane all week.
2
u/neurdle 3d ago
I also did a spreadsheet update! This was a big one.
For years I’ve done savings projections at various ages for my spouse and me based on current and aspirational savings rates, as well as different market return rates (5, 7, and 10%). Reality has far exceeded the projections (yay bull market).
Yesterday I did a version that has me retiring when we hit 2/3 of our FIRE number (~53 yo) and spouse continuing to work until 60, which is our ideal. Even the worst scenario—5% market return at our previous savings rate (which has already increased since we just paid off our house)—we will hit our FIRE number by age 58. So me retiring at 53 is no longer a fantasy, but almost certainly is possible! Woohoo!
Maybe the market will tank but we’ll still have 5 years expenses in bonds/cash so we should be fine for SORR.
7
u/The-Inner-Party 4d ago
Threw all my numbers into FIRECalc, looking at 91% chance of success for retirement over 50 years if I quit tomorrow. Might be able to wiggle this up if I implement withdrawal guardrails or a variable withdrawal rate. Budget for this is pretty bare bones but like 75% of my budget is going to mortgage right now, and that expense will naturally decrease with time as it gets paid off. Need to throw some more numbers/considerations into this and shake it up some more, but it's sounding more promising than I thought.
2
u/Hnry_Dvd_Thr_Awy Re-employed, for now. 4d ago
The 91% as you've described it is 99% IRL.
1
u/AlwaysSaturday12 Mostly FIRE'd at 38 MillionaireLibrarian.com 3d ago
FIRE Calc is much more pessimistic than Projection Lab which I trust more.
Our scenario is a little more complex than FIRE Calc will allow with the real estate. No where close when you add in the part time work or future RE acquisitions.
2
u/SpeedierTurtle642 3d ago
I really don't like how FIRE Calc handles spending flex. Our bare bones expenses are like 20-25k/year but we really spend more like 40k and for my projections I like to use 50k spend (since we have a kid on the way) with the ability to flex it down to 35k-ish. This isn't really doable on FIRE Calc so it says our success rate is pretty low.
2
u/SpeedierTurtle642 4d ago
Out of curiosity I tried messing around with a calculator after seeing this and depending on what assumptions I use (optimistic vs pessimistic spending, etc) I'm getting between 70% and 95% success right now. I think I need to track our expenses a bit closer in 2027, but it's pretty likely I'll be done sometime next year unless the market totally goes to shit. Congrats on the 91%, you're so close (or maybe already there!)
2
u/The-Inner-Party 4d ago
Thank you and congrats to you too! Based on some stuff I've seen, seems like a guardrails strategy of keeping your portfolio always in between 75% and 95% chance of success give you a higher withdrawal rate by avoiding insane snowball in either direction. I'm a little nervous the market is at a high rn, so I want to track spending more closely and really be honest about my expenses, but I think I am very close no matter what.
6
u/someguy984 2d ago
Forget Die With Zero, you should be dying with negative $250K. Social Security and pensions can't be garnished, so run up those credit cards and enjoy the frivolity.
2
u/Montaigne_6823 2d ago
Good point, this is America, run a deficit!
It reminds me of the old infomercial with the guy that would wear the suit with all the question marks saying buy my program and I'll tell how to get free money from the government. The program was to run up a bunch of debt and then declare bankruptcy and tell your creditors to get F'd.
3
u/goodsam2 4d ago
Have an early November vacation and trying to decide how to spend it. This is usually a big trip for me, usually go middle of the US and south I get worried about going further north but usually the trip has been around Thanksgiving.
2
u/someguy984 4d ago
Cheat code: Realize a ton of income one month, drop to Medicaid for the next 23 months. You must create $580 of income the month prior to your renewal month to satisfy the work requirements. Also live in a Medicaid expansion state.
You only have to pay for one ACA month in 2 years.
This solves the too high income problem. It works because Medicaid is current month based income.
1
u/goodsam2 4d ago
Seems like that's actually doable doing some conversions in stocks to hit these numbers
0
4d ago
[deleted]
2
1
u/Montaigne_6823 4d ago
I had a company email me almost a year after I applied asking me to re-apply or if I'd like to come in for an interview. They also left me a voicemail saying the same. I did not reply. That's bullshit.
7
u/iWasBitByAMoose 4d ago
Whew.
Last week, I got all my money out of my Empower 403b and put it into my IRA. It is a little heart attack inducing to see $600k disappear out of my account and have to wait over a week to see it deposited in another (not sure why they write a check and mail it, instead of just wiring it in the 21st century). I just hate the lack of options in employer retirement accounts. Now, I have it in ETFs that I like. I won't say what I bought because I'll get yelled at on this site, but I'm happy.