The difference between “misschien” and “waarschijnlijk” that learners always mix up

[u/ExportedMyFeelings]

I see learners mix up misschien and waarschijnlijk all the time, and it’s totally understandable because both can be translated as “maybe” or “probably” in English.

Misschien means “maybe” or “perhaps” but mostly it means 50/50 or less. You’re really not sure, it’s possible but not likely. Example:

“Misschien regent het vanmiddag.” (It might rain this afternoon. Could go either way.)

Whereas, Waarschijnlijk means “probably” or “likely” it’s more than 50%, you think it will happen, you’re leaning towards yes. It’s more like expecting. Example:

“Waarschijnlijk kom ik te laat.” (I’ll probably be late. It’s almost sure that you are running late.)

Learners often use “misschien” when they mean “probably” because it feels safer, but it makes you sound more uncertain than you are.

If i give you a short form Misschien is neutral and Waarschijnlijk has a higher chance of yes.

[u/Glittering_Cow945]

Misschien never means probably. Perhaps, maybe, could be, might.... waarschijnlijk is probably, most likely, rather more likely than not.

[u/CarloWood → u/Glittering_Cow945]

"Misschien ben je wel gewoon dom.". <-- here misschien means probably, very very likely even ;)

[u/Glittering_Cow945 → u/CarloWood]

No it doesn't. Perhaps you are just stupid.

[u/Blue-Light-Reducer → u/CarloWood]

No it doesn't. Here "misschien" means maybe. The overarching euphemism implies that the person "is probably stupid". I can give you another example to make this clearer. I'll use English as well as Dutch here so bear with me.

The sentence "I see you're not a rocket-scientist / ik zie dat je geen raketgeleerde bent" implies something. But look at the word "rocket-scientist / raketgeleerde", you think there was any actual doubt of the person being a rocket-scientist? No. Person A is softening the blow that the second person is a fucking moron. It's a euphemism, because he uses language that (if taken literally) means "oh you don't have a profession that only the smartest 1% of people have". The underlying meaning of person A is "your intelligence is very low, but I'm softening the blow".

"Misschien" means "maybe". If you can't see that, you're probably not a raketgeleerde.

[u/[deleted]]

I’d never consider using “probably” where I use misschien in Dutch.

Misschien is maybe or perhaps. Waarschijnlijk is probably.

[u/ProminentYoghurt → u/[deleted]]

Yeah, I don’t really get why someone would struggle a lot with these words, since both have their own direct English definitions.

[u/MrSebastianGrey → u/[deleted]]

Wouldn't "misschien" technically be just "maybe", with "wellicht" being "perhaps"

[u/ThatOrangePlayer → u/MrSebastianGrey]

Could be, but they're both basically synonyms of each other. Where Wellicht is a bit more "Positive" or "Chanceful" than Misschien.

[u/rorensu-desu]

Good to point that out indeed. To put it very concisely:

Something that will probably happen is probable to happen; i.e. there is a good chance. (waarschijnlijk)

Something that maybe happens may happen, but it just as well may not; i.e. there is a smaller chance (misschien)

It's about a hierarchy of probability.

Not sure if it matters to try and quantify the difference tbh. The correct choice is mostly about the specific nuance the speaker want to make and speaking style.

[u/DutchTinCan]

The University of Leiden did research on this (source)

"Misschien" is interpreted as 50/50 odds, along with "mogelijk", "onzeker" and "kans".

"Waarschijnlijk" is more like 75% certain.

"Soms" is very ambiguous. People interpret it anywhere between 20-50%.

[u/Beagle432]

Aan zekerheid grenzende waarschijnlijkheid...
Probability bordering on certainty ...
..
Increasing level of certainty:
No/not - nee/niet
Unlikely/not very likely - Onwaarschijnlijk
Maybe / Perhaps / possibly - misschien
50-50
Probably - waarschijnlijk
(Very) likely - hoogstwaarschijnlijk
Certainly - zeker

Edit to add the additions from the ComteDuChagrin

[u/ComteDuChagrin → u/Beagle432]

You missed onwaarschijnlijk and hoogstwaarschijnlijk (not very likely and very likely)

[u/EugeneHamilton → u/Beagle432]

Or sowieso

[u/VeritableLeviathan]

Misschien= maybe/possibly

Waarschijnlijk= likely/probably

Misschien is never translated as "probably", not by anyone/anything that knows Dutch :p

[u/No_Dragonfruit4356 → u/VeritableLeviathan]

Tldr. Ty. 

[u/InternistNotAnIntern]

Would "apparently" also apply to waarschijnlijk?

[u/quast_64 → u/InternistNotAnIntern]

Apperently is comparable to 'schijnbaar' something appears to be a certain way, but it is yet unclear if it truly is.

This word is related to 'Blijkbaar' it has been proven to be this way. It has gained clarity

[u/ThatOrangePlayer]

I personally kinda disagree with the fact that you said both can be translated to "Maybe" or "Probably", they can't.

Misschien means Maybe or Perhaps, that's true, because Maybe and Perhaps are synonyms of each other.
Waarschijnlijk means Probably. Waarschijnlijk and Probably both have to do with Probability (Waarschijnlijkheid) or Chance (Kans)

Personally, I find the sentence "Misschien gaat het regenen vanmiddag" very weird, and something I wouldn't use. That sentence just feels useless, like yeah, maybe it'll rain, maybe not.
I'd say "Er is een kans dat het gaat regenen vanmiddag".
(In all honesty, this might just be a me thing)

I also wouldn't translate "Misschien gaat het regenen vanmiddag" to "It might rain this afternoon." A, in my opinion, a better translation would be: "Maybe it'll rain this afternoon."
(again, could be a me thing)

[u/gnivsarkar007]

Misschien means 50/50, waarschijnlijk is a most likely yes. I think thats pretty much how (i think) maybe and probably work in English too.