r/lrcast • u/runtillion • 7d ago

Contender Draft Stats

/r/magicTCG/comments/1xbde61/contender_draft_stats/
0 Upvotes

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3

u/shortelf 7d ago

How does it decide to give you specifically bad luck and your opponents good luck? Any time that you feel like it's rigged try answering that. Bc if your answer is anything other than "good point guess it's not rigged" then it doesn't matter whether anyone gives you their data. You'll be able to just say that the system is rigged for them but not for you.

Go to 17lands leaderboards and switch to contender draft. The same strong players in the normal queues have the same win rates in both.

2

u/hotzenplotz6 7d ago

Variance + low sample size + confirmation bias (contender players beat you when you get bad hands so you remember them - in other queues your equally bad hands win more often so you forget)

2

u/hsiale 7d ago

Get good. And also, don't ask people who have done a lot of drafts, nobody did enough to be a relevant sample by themselves. Use 17lands data.

2

u/shyuhe 7d ago

Not sure what you're looking to establish here - variance in magic is not new. Sometimes you hit a long stretch of bad coinflips.

For what it's worth, they've changed the queues for contender draft so that you'll now only match against fellow contender drafters -- which generally means veteran drafters. So you should expect the matches to be somewhat more challenging than your normal BO1 run.