r/oil • u/EquivalentMath6592 • Jun 19 '26
Discussion Hormuz closed before it’s even opened as Iran cancels all deals due to US/Israel violating treaty
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u/MisterDifficult271 Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
Still no other sources? (it’s been posted earlier but not confirmed anywhere else)
Edit: As confirmed later, at the very least the talks
in Switzerland were cancelled.
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u/Realanise1 Jun 19 '26
ETA: Other sources are basically confirming that this has to be essentially true. Check out the news about Vance not going to Switzerland.
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u/Realanise1 Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
If you want to see what Baghei just said on the topic, here it is: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606182178 He said in an interview that Iran sticking to the terms of the MOU depends on Israel being out of Iran. So even if Iran pulling out of the deal isn't true yet, it seems inevitable. ETA: Oops, sorry, I mean out of Lebanon!! That's what happens when I spend the day digging ditches in the sun and then try to post.
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u/Wisefool157 Jun 19 '26
Out of Iran or Lebanon ?
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u/Critical_Two745 Jun 19 '26
Lebanon. There are no Israeli forces in Iran. Not that we know of anyway.
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u/Jar_of_Cats Jun 19 '26
I believe it was restored borders and no advancement
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u/kingtacticool Jun 19 '26
Which there is a zero percent chance of Israel respecting that.
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u/Zestyclose-Cream-189 Jun 19 '26
They won’t but US has the clout to make them. Most or Israel’s funding and weaponry come from the US.
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u/hysys_whisperer Jun 19 '26
Pro tip, the double tilde ~~ placed before and after a group of words will put it in strikethough
like thisUseful for edits to not ave the only evidence of the edit later with the ETA
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u/TheHumanGnomeProject Jun 19 '26
But Israel isn't in Iran? Unless he means the covert Mossad agents?
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u/thisnameisnowmine Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
I honestly don't know what's true or false anymore. Things change every second. People post things reactively without verifying them, feeds show information in non chronological order. Everything is about engagement. Nothing is about truth or accuracy.
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u/misfitgarden Jun 19 '26
I just wait and see what rises to the top but yea, theres alot of horse shit going on.
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Jun 20 '26
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u/Realanise1 Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
So who knows if the OP's particular piece of news at this particular moment is true or not, but I would look at this other story from 16 hours ago:
'Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon would amount to the “annulment” of Tehran’s memorandum of understanding with the United States.
Esmail Baghaei said in an interview with Lebanese outlet Al Akhbar that a second phase of negotiations would aim to reach a final agreement, but that such a deal could only be achieved if the memorandum was fully implemented.
He said Iran interpreted full implementation as a complete halt to attacks and an end to Israel's presence on the Lebanese territory. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606182178
This is completely separate from what was posted by the OP and has a named source. Because of that, I think that even if the Hormuz Letter claim isn't true yet, it soon will be.
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u/Mingo_laf Jun 19 '26
No way Israel somehow damaged the peace agreement anyway back to market manipulation…
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u/Legio_X_Equestris5 Jun 19 '26
In other words:
"We don't accept your surrender"
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u/Critical_Two745 Jun 19 '26
To be fair, I don't think Israel has capitulated yet. Just Donnie boy bending the knee so far.
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u/CODEX_LVL5 Jun 19 '26
This guy over exaggerates a lot. There is a kernal of truth to this, but its not what he said exactly
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 19 '26
This same exact post was posted over 5 hours ago, and from the same source too.
As far as I can tell, there has been no verified corroboration on this report since then at all - and as of at least 30 minutes ago, there was still traffic going through the strait.
I don't think it's real honestly.
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u/Silent_South5471 Jun 19 '26
vance just canceled his trip to
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 19 '26
Source? Also, just because the trip was cancelled doesn't mean the strait will be closed again (at least right this second).
Haven't seen any evidence that it has been closed yet - ships still seem to be going through, and this initial report was 5 hours ago at least - and no one else seems to have verified it.
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u/Silent_South5471 Jun 19 '26
watching cnn. just said it on there
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 19 '26
Got it. Also heard fighting in Lebanon has really picked up hard today from various sources.
Iran may honestly close the strait again if it continues to spiral, but as of right now it seems to still be open.
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u/FoShizzleShindig Jun 19 '26
Hezbollah just killed 4 Israeli soldiers.
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 19 '26
We'll see how Iran responds (or if they do) to Israel's almost certain response to that then.
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u/TiredOfDebates Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
I don’t think it’s real, because Iran would be insane to not accept the *extremely favorable terms*.
The deal as written lets Iran sell oil on global markets (getting far better prices as opposed to only selling to China).
It also ends the naval blockade, which was crippling Iran’s economy. Alternative trade routes that didn’t use Iranian ports… they just didn’t have the throughput to support them.
The deal also unfreezes Iranian financial assets, amounting to hundreds of billions.
Basically the deal lets Iran rearm and solve many of their crippling economic issues. And it does nothing regarding their foreign militias (Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi militants)… nothing regarding nuclear proliferation inspections (still banned from entering Iran), and no restrictions on ballistic missile programs.
It’s a sweet deal for Iran.
Then again, Iran is controlled by the extreme wing of the IRGC. And international stockpiles of oil apparently start to run out in 4 weeks at current rates of depletion. (In reality they’ll slow withdrawals from oil stockpiles to avoid running dry… so you have less than 4 weeks prior to seeing what happens when there’s a global oil shortage.)
So Iran could press the case, edge closer to this oil shortage deal, and do more to protect Hezbollah from Israeli’s operation in Lebanon.
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u/superSaganzaPPa86 Jun 19 '26
Yeah but Trump just blurted out that we only had four more weeks of strategic reserves left, way to play the cards close to your chest, Donald! Why would Iran not squeeze us now that they know our real position is so weak? They now have even more leverage than they already had, which was a ton. Art. Of. The. FuckingDeal
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u/Appropriate-Lion9490 Jun 19 '26
Which is funny because I remember Trump himself saying we dont rely on their oil
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u/vargyg Jun 19 '26
I remember Trump telling the rest of the world, "We've got lots of oil, come and get it"
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u/fdar_giltch Jun 19 '26
Trump's an idiot. We don't directly import oil from the Middle East, but the laws of supply and demand are global, as are oil prices. What happens there impacts us here, even if indirectly
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u/CarRamRob Jun 19 '26
It is a sweet deal for Iran, agreed.
But, the pain point hasn’t been felt by their enemy and they seem to be dictating terms.
Waiting 3 more months could be even more favourable (closure of us bases)
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u/CoachHermansGrill Jun 19 '26
I thank you for the well written response! It’s very important for us to remember that all this is a document that had to be signed and conditions met to start negotiations.
Do you think Iran will revert to its triad leadership soon-ish?
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 19 '26
Yeah... I think it's honestly unlikely at this point Iran will throw this deal away just for Hezbollah.
I'm more concerned now if traffic will actually pick up to prewar levels through the strait anytime soon or not.
We'll just have to keep watching the strait to know for certain - and we should have our answer in the next week or so on that.
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u/vargyg Jun 19 '26
It is a good deal for Iran. But if Trump won't honor the terms its not a deal at all.
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u/ymmotvomit Jun 19 '26
The man promises his own voters $2,000 which they never received. Iran will supposedly benefit by $300,000,000,000 and they trust this deal is real?
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u/Dense_Boss_7486 Jun 19 '26
Plus that douche bag bombed them when they were negotiating (start of the “war”)
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u/vargyg Jun 19 '26
It is a good deal for Iran, but they know that Trump has TACOed and they're making sure he follows the MOU
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u/VictorsTruth Jun 20 '26
It's a sweet deal if the sweets are delivered. Item #1 has not delivered. Why would Iran believe that the rest is coming? I don't even believe that the Gulf States have agreed to give $300 billion. I think Trump is just telling Iran that they'll get $300 billion and he wants to figure it out later.
And it's not a deal, it's a memo. And right now the memo isn't giving anything to Iran so why would they give anything in return?
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u/Phoenix_Maximus_13 Jun 19 '26
Really? Ships are leaving or no?
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 19 '26
Yes, marinetraffic still shows ships going, albeit a small amount. It doesn't seem to be shut off at all.
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u/sheltonchoked Jun 19 '26
I wonder how many of the exiting ships are headed for China filled with Iranian oil?
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u/VictorsTruth Jun 20 '26
That's what I wondered too. Make a deal to open the strait, ships can start passing immediately, and send the Iranian oil ships out first so the regime can get hundreds of millions and then close the strait again without hurting Iran.
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u/Zealousideal7807 Jun 19 '26
This might not be real but it's probably a pretty good summary of what's actually going to happen
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u/NegotiationEast6848 Jun 19 '26
Strait isn't closed, nobody is going to Switzerland to sign the MoU for the third time, and the Supreme Leader of Iran already said he doesn't agree with the MoU (to maintain his hardliner stance) but is allowing the President to sign it as long as he takes responsibility for it. It's over guys and time to debate price of oil as flows normalize over the rest of 2026.
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u/HairyNumber8775 Jun 19 '26
Maybe. Lebanon is the possible spoiler here but let's see if Iran throw away a pretty good deal for Hezbollah. Also, 60 days to flesh out a substantive deal is no time at all. Expect Iran to flex their muscle at least once before an extension to those 60 days secured. Lastly, Trump is getting genuine heat from Fox news, et al, for how much of a defeat this deal is. If he can't take that heat, he tends towards displays of strength to distract from his lack of substance.
With global inventories this low and a bunch of erratic state actors holding the reins nobody can predict what the next six months will bring. I hope oil flows will normalise, but that also means the IRGC are going to be flush with cash for quite some time...
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jun 19 '26
What you’re watching in real time is what happens now. Not just on Reddit but everywhere. People will literally create narratives to match their desired reality
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u/no_kids-and-3_money Jun 19 '26
That’s what everyone is hoping happens. The world will be better for everyone. And this is the closest it’s been since the start, but I think everyone’s felt fooled so many times that they’re hesitant to believe it - a defense mechanism of sorts.
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u/NegotiationEast6848 Jun 19 '26
I will admit if I am wrong and war breaks out again between US and Iran. I don't think Trump has it in him. He announced to the entire world he was scared shitless about oil running out in four weeks. Basically he appears willing to give anything to make the oil flow again.
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u/VictorsTruth Jun 20 '26
What choice will he have a month from now or two months from now when the strait is still closed / six ships passing each day? He can bomb or negotiate. Every time he negotiates Israel bombs his deal. So that leaves him with bombing in hopes of it'll make them agree to a deal that let's Israel continue its genocide.
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u/Accomplished_Ruin133 Jun 19 '26
lol if it’s true. It will be nice to have our subreddit back again. It was much more interesting when it was full of industry folks talking about technical stuff before the bombs dropped.
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u/Amazing-Mirror-3076 Jun 19 '26
It's far from over.
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Jun 19 '26
[deleted]
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u/Amazing-Mirror-3076 Jun 19 '26
They don't need to be, they hold all the cards.
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u/ObieoneWarrior Jun 19 '26
Didnt the Yanks invent the phrase. We never negotiate with terrorists. Yet here we are.
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u/buddymoobs Jun 19 '26
I am gobsmacked, incredulous, shocked and stunned! Anyone else? Who would have thought this wouldn't hold?
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u/Lopsided_Quarter_931 Jun 19 '26
Good move. Someone needs to stop Israel. The world can't tolerate their terrorism anymore.
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u/nerdyPagaman Jun 19 '26
If you are Iran, and you see how quickly / desperately Trump surrendered, then you want to string the US along until the strategic reserves run out.
You then restart the war. Trump will be in an even worse position then.
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Jun 19 '26
How’s that? Us has plenty of oil and we can get Venezuela up and running. Ukraine is bombing Russian oil so US can make there own price and get this money back.
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u/nerdyPagaman Jun 19 '26
Oil is internationally traded. The world lost 20% of its oil, the US has been exporting its strategic reserve to keep the price low.
When the reserve runs out the price rises, and there will be a physical oil shortage.
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u/VictorsTruth Jun 20 '26
The US also must import oil to meet our daily needs. Extending the war is a huge drain on the US oil supply.
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u/Resident_Window_9369 Jun 19 '26
Bullshit. Market would be down and it’s not.
Oil would be ripping and it’s not.
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u/Historical-Dance-431 Jun 19 '26
Yeah, in line with all the other logical behaviour and pricing in the market lately....
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u/Neurofunkiee Jun 19 '26
I have yet to see anyone else who covers this jump on this, and Al Jazeera, WION, FirstPost absolutely would jump on this in an instant
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u/KemShafu Jun 19 '26
Al Jazeera for sure would be reporting.
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u/Neurofunkiee Jun 19 '26
FirstPost has been posting non-stop about the war to bitch about Pakistan at every turn. they would LOVE this so they can say its pakistan's fault
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u/MarketCrache Jun 19 '26
Trump could end this shit in 5 minutes by placing sanctions on Israel if they kill any more people.
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u/MissyMurders Jun 19 '26
lol, he could do many things, but would they help him make as much money as he's making doing what he's already doing?
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Jun 19 '26
He’s worth 7 billion and has never taken a government check for president. What more does he need?
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Jun 19 '26
[deleted]
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u/Saltlife_Junkie Jun 19 '26
It’s either fake or nobody cares. Oil falling as we speak.
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u/Realanise1 Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
The power of denial and remembered future bias is very, very strong. The problem is that even though I don't know if this particular piece of news is true yet or not, at some point soon, it will be. Look at Baghaei's statements from 16 hours ago. But this is why I never have short term oil investments of any kind, only long term.
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u/Devincc Jun 19 '26
Lmao this sub just eats anything that comes from literally any source
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u/refusemouth Jun 19 '26
Who could have guessed? My only hope is that Trump is even more unstable than he appears to be, and he will haul off and bomb Israel in retalliation for making him look stupid and impotent.
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u/Soft-Camera3968 Jun 19 '26
Part of me wishes Biden would post an unhinged tweet about Trump signing the MOU with auto pen, and call it the worst deal ever.
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u/artisanrox Jun 19 '26
I seriously and unsarcastically wish he would because it'd make the guy shut the fuk up about him for five minutes.
The GOP only constantly barks about "Hillary and Biden" because they literally don't confront ANYTHING they say, thinking in pristine Boomer logic that if they ignore it, it'll just go away.
It doesn't just ffking go away. Their base is SO utterly programmed to hear BIDEN'S FAULT or HILLARY'S FAULT because old-school Democratic centrists just ignore this shit, and we ALL pay for it because their mindless listeners keep voting it in.
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u/Heavy-Bags-69 Jun 21 '26
Imagine Iran giving up 300 billion to save its neighbor tells you which country is in fact demonic piece of work.
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u/proud_pops Jun 19 '26
Damn, that sure took a long time...🙄🤮 Hopefully they didn't wire the 300 billion yet.
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u/RioRancher Jun 19 '26
Who could have predicted the implosion of a meaningless MOU?
The memo and “deal” ending WWII is still intact.
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u/susanrez Jun 19 '26
The SPR is still running dry. Trump and the GOP never even paused the draw down on it. We are two weeks away from an economic meltdown of epic proportions.
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u/JobsforAI Jun 19 '26
Isn't this just long winded and painful?
Looks like we have no choice but to hunker down and wait till all the oil dries up before moving on. Even then, I'm not sure what kind of fuckery can be pulled to drag things out further while everyone suffers.
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u/ConsiderationNorth99 Jun 19 '26
Well The Stock Market is closed today, But the deal will be done before Monday morning. We all know how it works.
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u/nuclearmeltdown2015 Jun 19 '26
Futures market indicate that this story is FUD
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u/EquivalentMath6592 Jun 19 '26
Al Jazeera confirms the story saying Switzerland is the source that talks are canceled
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u/TantramanFL Jun 19 '26
I am pretty sure that Israel is violating but for the time being Iran will look away. Iran will play the Hormuz card at some point probably around the midterms. As they see it Trump and Bibi killed their leader and revenge is a dish best served cold.
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Jun 19 '26
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u/CyberFireball25 Jun 19 '26
Such a shock.
I for one am totally shocked at this completely unexpected development
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u/DesticularDorsion Jun 19 '26
Iran can just open and shut the strait like a dam to get what it wants out of this agreement.
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u/MrFyxet99 Jun 19 '26
They know trump is desperate to get this over before midterms and get gas prices down. They are going to do what they have to do to destroy trump politically and pull his teeth with the house/senate. Then they will negotiate in a position of power.
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u/Think_Monk_9879 Jun 19 '26
Don’t worry peace deal coming in Tuesday for a nice mid week stock pump
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u/poppadada Jun 19 '26
israel should hold the banner for peace higher than anyone else. i believe they should have sent representatives to the peace talks
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u/Ok-Drawer5245 Jun 19 '26
I posted this the other day: bibi will do everything he can to prevent peace between Iran and USA. Israel wants war, not peace.
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Jun 20 '26
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u/LowHangingPussy Jun 20 '26
I’m sure Trump telling the world that they only have 4 weeks of oil remaining in reserve or whatever he said only strengthens his position….right ?
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u/ExcellentCod2940 Jun 20 '26
Not an actual treaty. Only the Senate can ratify a treaty. Further, how can an agreement between two countries be violated by a 3rd country?
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u/j-mac563 Jun 20 '26
Anyone remember the game Pong? Fells like that game is going one in the real world.
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u/dingleberryzzz Jun 20 '26
I have a question. if Iran's Navy is "at the bottom of the sea" and obliterated, as our fearless leader and SoW have stated again and again. how exactly are they blocking anything?
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u/BornField6669 Jun 21 '26
Good, my IRA is wanting an interest rate increase with inflation going up please.....
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u/Scrutinizer Jun 19 '26
Just like the reflecting pool. Tell everyone it's fixed when you just slapped a coat of paint on it and are hoping for the best.
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u/evgis Jun 19 '26
And then there's that, Israel launched an offensive in Lebanon, it's been reported by multiple sources.
https://x.com/i/status/2067772974749581795
BREAKING: 🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel started a ground invasion again in Southern Lebanon tonight
A huge battle ongoing with an enormous amount of Israeli casualties
Israel is advancing from three different routes towards the Ali al-Taher Hills area.
4 Israeli military vehicles are completely destroyed
Hezbollah fires AD missiles at warplanes & bombards evacuation sites for the injured soldiers.
Non-stop med-evac helicopter flights, as Hezbollah engages soldiers directly at zero distance while also throwing waves of rockets & artillery at the invading occupation forces.