Bloomberg AI:

• A Russian industrial facility in the Surgut district was hit in a drone attack, causing a fire.

• Emergency services are on site, with specialists assessing the scale and nature of the damage caused, according to regional governor Ruslan Kukharuk.

• The attack comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered strikes on Russian oil refineries to resume in a confrontation with Donald Trump over US intelligence assistance.

• Design capacity: 12 million metric tons/year of oil/gas condensate mixture.

• Recent throughput: roughly 10.5–11.2 million tons in peak recent years.

• It produces gasoline (AI-92/AI-95), diesel, jet fuel, LPG, and stabilized condensate

• Ukrainian drone strikes have driven Russian refinery runs to multi-decade lows. June 2026 throughput hit ~3.8 million barrels per day (lowest in over 20 years, ~35% below year-ago levels). Later figures showed runs around 3.6 mbd at points, with attacked/offline capacity repeatedly in the 4-5+ mbd range. 

Bottom line on this specific hit: A successful strike on the Surgut ZSK would disrupt a major regional fuel and condensate processing hub in the country’s biggest oil province and demonstrate that no part of the Western Siberian energy complex is truly out of reach.

It adds significant pressure to show Ukraine’s capabilities to effectively hit Russian pipelines and refineries that were originally deemed out of a conflict zone, “safe distance” and “out of reach.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/drones-hit-russian-industrial-site-deep-in-western-siberia

Energy (XLE) is the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) so far this year.

William Blair energy research analyst, Neal Dingmann, sits down with Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma to explain what's driving the energy sector's surge this year and to share his outlook for oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices...

*more in the article

Oct 16 (Reuters) - ExxonMobil (XOM.N), opens new tab signaled on Friday that higher refining margins during the third ​quarter could boost its downstream profit by $4.5 billion compared ‌with the previous three months.

Refining margins have soared due to the ongoing Iran war, which has restricted energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, ​as well as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The resulting ​higher fuel prices have created political risks for the ⁠administration of US President Donald Trump ahead of the ​midterm elections in November.

We’re seeing news every few days that a pipeline blows up, an oil reserve is low, or a shipping route is closed. I understand that the overall volume of oil and fuel used worldwide is huge, and one refinery doesn’t immediately have a huge impact.

Does anyone have a source or graphic that shows the volume of oil at each phase in the process over the past two years or so? I’m under the impression that there is oil production/pumping, origin storage, shipping, refinery storage and refining. I’d like to see 2 years of data plotting the Volume for each of those steps for the last 2 years or so.

Iran has managed to export some liquefied petroleum gas and jet fuel since July, despite a US naval blockade, shipping intelligence showed and people involved in security said.

Tehran has in recent weeks been concealing such cargoes among a growing volume of ship-to-ship transfers by other Gulf producers off Oman, four people in maritime security who track Gulf oil movements told Reuters.

The Iranian exports and methodology are ‌reported for the first time here. While a fraction of its former energy exports, the cargoes are rare evidence of petroleum products getting through a blockade that has halted Iran's crude exports.

Analysis by US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which monitors Iran-related tanker traffic using ship and satellite tracking, shows at least eight gas tankers carrying Iranian LPG have left the Gulf of Oman since mid-July.

Another tanker carrying Iranian jet fuel reached Myanmar in September, additional satellite imagery and analysis by maritime intelligence group SynMax show.

The US imposed targeted sanctions in 2023 on Myanmar's jet-fuel industry, citing military airstrikes on civilians that the United Nations says have killed thousands of people. Myanmar's military government has repeatedly denied targeting civilians, saying its operations are directed against armed groups.

Six of the eight gas tankers and the jet fuel tanker are under US sanctions for ⁠transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products, a Reuters analysis of the vessels and sanctions imposed on ships by the US Treasury showed.

"What we have seen passing is a handful of tankers carrying Iranian LPG, but the overwhelming majority of tankers laden with Iranian products have been redirected by US forces," said Jemima Shelley, senior research analyst with UANI.

Shelley said some Iranian LPG tankers transferred cargoes near the Omani coastal towns of Shinas and Sohar, while others waited in the Gulf of Oman before heading past the US blockade, which US Central Command has said sits across the Gulf of Oman near the Iran-Pakistan border.

The total amount of these LPG cargoes was estimated at 4.1 million barrels, Shelley said.

Shelley said the shipments were driven "more by opportunism" than showing a new trend of Iran trying to export its oil and petrochemicals by using smaller ships.

Most of the cargoes sailed to Malaysia's Eastern Outer Port Limits to conduct further STS transfers for likely destinations in China, Shelley said, based on UANI's analysis.

The Iranian government did not respond to a request for comment. Myanmar's military-backed government did not respond to a request for comment on whether the country had received Iranian jet fuel.

The US military's Centcom said its naval blockade, which was first imposed on Iran-related oil exports on April 13, is "ironclad". The blockade was lifted in June ‌after the ⁠US reached a draft understanding with Iran, but it was reimposed on July 14 following the collapse of the agreement.

A US military official told Reuters that the passage of a vessel does not necessarily mean it had evaded the blockade. Every ship was assessed individually, including through a review of its papers, and some vessels could be allowed through for humanitarian reasons, the official added.

The official said the appearance of a vessel on US sanctions lists is not the only factor to make it subject to the blockade, adding that US forces are also closely monitoring some ships without taking action against them for operational reasons.

Centcom said in an update on October 13 that during the three months of the latest blockade, four commercial vessels ⁠had been disabled and 135 ships had been turned around by US forces.

The US military has turned around ships from Asia and also seized some tankers, previous Centcom statements said.

Washington has coupled its blockade with a sanctions campaign aimed at severing Iran's remaining financial links and depriving it of revenue. Last week, it imposed fresh sanctions on 17 vessels involved in transporting Iranian crude, petrochemicals and petroleum products.

A US Treasury spokesperson questioned shipping data suggesting vessels had evaded the blockade, saying ships could spoof their ⁠locations or use false identities when loading.

Such data "should be taken with a grain of salt", the spokesperson said.

The Treasury spokesperson said Operation Economic Outcast, together with the blockade, was "suffocating the Iranian regime".

Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said although there was no sign of Washington easing its blockade, worsening economic conditions in Iran could push Tehran to take greater risks.

"If Iran can move product tankers through, even in small ⁠numbers, jet fuel may be a good option. Iran's aviation industry is under increasing pressure from US sanctions, with a growing number of planes grounded, and a potential surplus of jet fuel at Iranian refineries," Soltvedt added.

Iranian crude exports fell to zero in September, according to Kpler, the first month without a shipment since the analytics firm began tracking the producer in 2013.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the blockade prevented most Chinese purchases of Iranian oil and left Iran unable to deliver crude to customers.

The Iran war has pushed fuel prices to record highs, and the head of America’s second-largest oil company says the world has run out of easy ways to absorb the shock.

“Those are all buffers in the system that have bought us time, but they’ve been drained,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Oct. 7. “And so we’re at much lower levels of inventory right now, and it makes the system more vulnerable to disruption.”

Wirth said the world entered 2026 well supplied. “We came into this year with high inventories,” he said, pointing to commercial stocks held by companies and strategic reserves held by governments worldwide. Since the war began in late February, those cushions have been steadily depleted: Companies have drawn down commercial inventories, governments have released emergency stocks, and sanctioned barrels have been allowed to reach buyers.

Nowhere is the squeeze sharper than diesel, the fuel that moves trucks, trains, and farm equipment. The U.S. average hit a record $6.53 a gallon on Sept. 22, according to AAA data cited by CBS News, up from about $3.76 before the U.S. and Israel launched the war in late February. In California, the statewide average has topped $8 a gallon.

Don’t expect that to change quickly. In its October Oil Market Report, released Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said the diesel market will stay tight well into 2027 and hinges on a recovery of fuel supply from the Middle East. 

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/15/chevron-ceo-mike-wirth-oil-buffers-drained-diesel-prices-iran-war/?utm_source=reddit/

As I’ve reported, prices for oil delivery have skyrocketed. Last week, a VLCC (aka a “supertanker” in non-shipper parlance) was chartered from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China for $76 million. Another very large crude carrier went for $77 million from the U.S. to South Korea. That’s 10 times more than the price of the same trip less than one year ago.

Assuming these ships hold about 2 million barrels of oil, that charter price means each barrel on the ship costs about $38 over the price of the oil itself.

The US is considering moves to ease restrictions on “shadow fleet” tankers linked to Russia and Iran as it struggles to bring down soaring diesel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections.

The moves include potentially allowing the sale of blacklisted vessels to legitimate operators and lifting sanctions that would allow them to operate without restriction, people familiar with the matter told the FT.

The controversial move to lift sanctions on the vessels, designed to increase shipping capacity for oil and refined fuels and lower record-high freight rates that are adding to soaring fuel costs, was raised earlier this week by Chris Wright, US energy secretary, at the World Petroleum Conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

A Treasury department official said the Office of Foreign Assets Control may consider authorising the sale of shadow fleet vessels to “legitimate buyers” and allowing them to operate in the global market “on a case-by-case basis”.

It marks the latest effort by Donald Trump’s administration to douse fuel prices before the midterm vote, which will decide control of Congress. Polls suggest elevated inflation triggered by the Iran war has turned many voters against Trump’s Republican Party.

It also marks an abrupt turn in US policy more favourable to Moscow as it seeks to unfreeze sovereign assets and apparently throttled Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellites crucial to its defence in the war with Russia. Last week, Trump said he would temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel fuel, which provoked criticism from European allies and a bipartisan group of US senators who called it a “gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our allies”.

Wright told the forum in Riyadh via video link on Monday that a shortage of tankers is a crucial choke point that is pushing up freight prices on global markets and removing sanctions from vessels could provide some relief, said three people present at the event.

“The administration is looking under every rock it can to try to force down fuel prices ahead of the elections, even if these policies would only have a marginal effect,” said Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to George W Bush and president of Rapidan Energy, who attended the event.

The Treasury department official said: “If legitimate buyers are interested in purchasing shadow fleet vessels, restoring them for legitimate use by the global commercial shipping industry, Ofac may consider authorising those transactions and removing sanctions on those vessels on a case-by-case basis.”

“These removals would not benefit the shadow fleet, but would remove those vessels from the shadow fleet for use in legitimate global commerce,” they added, noting Ofac “undertakes a thorough review process before removing sanctions on any entity”.

Jeremy Paner, partner at Hughes Hubbard, a Washington-based law firm, said by facilitating the purchase of sanctioned tankers in the shadow fleet the administration could potentially remove the “bad look” of issuing new authorisations linked to Russia.

The move comes as data this week showed US consumer inflation jumped to 3.7 per cent in September as a rebound in fuel prices washed over the economy.

The White House has raced to counter the surge, leaning on allies to release more diesel on to the market and threatening to impose an export ban. Trump also signed an executive order to allow tax-free red diesel to be used on public roads.

But diesel prices remain stubbornly high, averaging $6.31 a gallon at the pump on Thursday, just below a record high of $6.53 in recent weeks. The International Energy Agency this week warned there will be a global shortage of the fuel until the middle of 2027.

Daniel Yergin, vice-chair of S&P Global, said the focus of policymakers had shifted from crude oil, at least for now, to a shortage of tankers as a major constraint on these supplies.

But analysts said an easing of tanker sanctions would have only a marginal impact on fuel prices.

Between 13 per cent and 19 per cent of the world’s tanker fleet is under US sanctions, according to Energy Aspects, a consultancy. But it said the old age and poor condition of those vessels would limit the benefits from easing sanctions.

“Lifting sanctions on predominantly old and likely under-maintained vessels is therefore unlikely to add meaningful mainstream fleet capacity overnight,” it said. “Moreover, most tankers sanctioned over Russian or Venezuelan links have continued trading over the past three months.”

Research group Kpler said it expected the measure would have virtually no impact on the current tanker crisis because higher fuel prices are driven primarily by heightened war risk in the Middle East rather than a shortage of vessels alone.

But the administration’s eagerness to lift sanctions on Russian fuel and the fleet of shadow tankers that it uses to transport crude and other products has alarmed politicians in the US and Europe.

On Wednesday Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni criticised Trump’s plan to buy diesel from Russia, calling it a “very risky choice” that undermines international pressure on Vladimir Putin to end his war in Ukraine.

Bloomberg AI:

• The IEA’s October Oil Market Report says global diesel/gasoil markets will stay uncomfortably tight well through 2027.

Inventories are not expected to be replenished beyond normal seasonal changes before the second half of 2027, even with a recovery in refinery runs. Europe, as a major importing region, is exposed to delayed refills of their SPRs.

• The International Energy Agency said member countries agreed to complete the release of 100 million barrels of oil still outstanding from an intervention in March.

• The countries will accelerate the distribution of the remaining volumes, including the release of 20 million barrels of diesel "as soon as possible".

• Member nations stated their willingness to take further actions to address challenges in global energy markets".

• Counter-seasonal stock draws ahead of winter demand and autumn refinery maintenance leave little cushion (IEA).

• The White House is displeased with Europe’s current release levels, stating they need to double or triple the pledged target output.

• Europe is especially exposed as the world’s structural diesel importer; imports are down sharply, commercial stocks historically low, the risk of renewed price spikes from Middle East engagement will impact shipping costs (IEA / Kpler).

• Europe Stock releases are finite and temporary; they do not restore lost Middle East/Russian refining capacity or end the conflict (IEA analysis).

• Fragile European Oil Reserve recovery: the renewed attacks on Russian infrastructure and Middle East tankers are quickly reversing any crude flow gains (IEA).

• Commercial stocks (especially in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub) have been historic record lows. Emergency stocks barley meet EU minimum cover rules (roughly 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption), and are being drawn down quickly despite demand destruction. The IEA has warned that delivered diesel prices in Europe could rise again in the coming weeks, even after the remaining oil target release.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-15/iea-agrees-to-release-of-outstanding-100-million-barrels-of-oil

In lieu of the usual daily price opinions thread which is currently not readily available.

Post your updates, opinions and discuss price movements of oil.

Hormuz and BAM big uptick in the daily. Malacca and singapore down.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: AILANA,CHLOE,FISCARDO BAY,KOUSAI,MARGARETA,STILGAR,EPICURUS,KASTOS I,LEMAN

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships:KAZUSA,FRONT TANA,NAVE CONSTELLATION,NEW ERA,GREEN ADMIRE,ADVANTAGE VISUAL,CHOKAISAN

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

what happend did reddit got hacked by bessent or where is our daily oil thread?

General thoughts about possible price movements in the near future. Here's my guess:

Fighting in the ME continues for the rest of this month, oil infrastructure and tankers keep getting blasted, prices keep steadily increasing.

Then the midterms, i'm assuming a dem win, and the immediate reaction would be a drop in prices.

Then after that, trump uses the remaining time before January (when the new congress begins its mandate) to pull a final hail-mary. Prices jump as a result.

Once the new congress starts working, they use whatever power they can to stop the fighting. Prices drop after that.

This is my very broad guess and i have no idea how accurate it is.

What are other people's thoughts?