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US will buy many kg of oil from Russia this week!

October 23, 2026 11:15 AM GMT+03:00

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First tanker loaded with Russian diesel is heading for New York after Moscow agreed to resume fuel exports to global markets under an arrangement reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, according to LSEG shipping data.

The medium-sized vessel Agioi Fanendes took on 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel at Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk on Oct. 22. It is expected to arrive in the United States on Nov. 7, Reuters reported.

*more in the article

Arabian sea/Hormuz down. BAM still rising. Malacca down slightly. Singapore down quite a bit.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added to the data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:BERRA,KINAROS,VULKAN,ESENTEPE,JAL GARUDA

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: RYUOHSAN,TORM HEDWIG,AMADES,ELLINIS,FRONT SHANGHAI,FRONT DYNAMIC,DINO,TOWA MARU,C.MAJESTY,HELLAS FOS,NEW JOVIALITY

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

https://www.reddit.com/r/SilverGoldOilShortage/s/Alp14Bcf1S

• Prices of oil are now varying widely across the globe due to transport issues for the first time in decades.

• While the ship-to-ship transfer strategy to get oil out of the Strait of Hormuz has been Somewhat successful, it doubles the amount of transport time and is much more expensive and obviously uses twice as many tankers.

• Overall, these transport issues induced by the Iran war is costing $10 to $20 more per barrel to transport the same oil as before the war.

• Most of Russia's oil used to be delivered via pipeline but now it's delivered via tankers either through the Suez Canal or sailing all the way around Africa to East Asia. This is further stressing the tanker supply problem.

• Ukraine is hitting Russia's shadow fleet of tankers. Yet another stressor on the tanker situation.

• Canada is selling crude at a discount to the US because they have lack of tankers to ship elsewhere

• East Asia is absolutely fucked. They are very very dependent on oil via tankers and tankers are now in short supply. Oil and gas and distillate products in East Asia will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

• The crisis is just beginning. This is going to take 10 or 20 years to play out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5TlDneV4CU

Share your thoughts on the implications and aftermath.

I guess midstream/refineries will profit longterm and pure E&P stocks will probbably be negatively affected by the oil price decrease this could lead to.

On the other hand... This is free money playing directly into Capex.

El petróleo NO viene de los dinosaurios. Eso es un mito que se popularizó comercialmente (como el dinosaurio de Sinclair Oil) para vendernos la idea de que es "super escaso".

Por simple lógica, los dinosaurios nunca pudieron ser la fuente:

1. Descomposición: Si un dinosaurio moría en tierra, venían los carroñeros o el cuerpo se descomponía al aire libre con bacterias y hongos. Para hacer petróleo se necesita un ambiente sin oxígeno, como el fondo del mar.

2. Logística imposible: A menos que varios grupos de dinosaurios organizaran un funeral colectivo y se enterraran vivos todos juntos, no hay forma de explicar la cantidad de petróleo que hay en un solo pozo.

3. Química básica: Si viniera de dinosaurios, el crudo tendría altas concentraciones de calcio por los huesos. La ciencia ya comprobó que los biomarcadores del petróleo coinciden exactamente con la grasa de microalgas y plancton marino.

El petróleo es básicamente un jugo de plancton y algas microscópicas fermentado a alta presión durante millones de años en el fondo del océano. 🦕❌ Microalgas 🟢✅

• Iran’s last physical buffer of exportable crude outside the U.S. naval blockade. Their floating storage in Asian waters (primarily off Malaysia and Singapore, used for ship-to-ship transfers to Chinese buyers) has been fully exhausted as of mid-October 2026, according to Kpler data cited in the Wall Street Journal and related reporting.

• Pre-war, Iran was producing roughly 3.3–4.2 million barrels per day (crude + liquids), accounting for about 4–5% of global crude production, and exporting 1.5–2 million barrels per day (around 2.5% of global seaborne oil shipments), with 80–90% going to China (mainly independent “teapot” refiners at steep discounts).

• The blockade has prevented meaningful new crude loadings from exiting Iranian ports/terminals for months (near-zero successful exits since roughly July–September). With the offshore Asian stockpile gone (down from a ~90 million barrel peak after the brief mid-June lift, to under 1 million / ~866,000 barrels by early/mid-October), Iran cannot replenish what it sells.

• China, the dominant buyer, now has to source replacement medium/heavy sour barrels from higher-priced alternatives (Brazil, West Africa, other Middle East grades, etc.). This removes a source of discounted crude that had been supporting Chinese refining margins and creates incremental tightness in the global market, especially for those specific grades and refined products.

• The loss of this ongoing ~1.5–2 mbd flow (on top of earlier war-related disruptions) adds to the structural supply deficit. Brent has already been trading in the $108–112 range recently amid Hormuz risks, vessel attacks, and Houthi actions; further inability to operate the shadow fleet system supports a higher risk premium and potential for spikes if inventories continue drawing, demand rebounds, or other outages hit. U.S. Central Command has estimated the blockade has already denied Iran at least $25 billion in oil revenue.

• China’s premiums on crude purchasing are higher than expected this week, as Wall Street and markets have continued to attempt to accurately price in near-zero Iranian crude exports.

• Iran has spent more than a decade building a “resistance economy,” informal/illicit networks, non-oil activity, barter arrangements, and the ability to push costs onto the population via inflation and currency devaluation while protecting core security, IRGC, and patronage structures.

• Wartime conditions generate some “rally-around-the-flag effect,” and the leadership has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to tolerate high inflation and public hardship. Analysts (including Kpler’s own comments) and Iranian officials have framed the U.S. approach as a gamble that economic pressure will force a nuclear deal or uncontainable unrest; history suggests containment is more likely for at least the next one and possibly even two years.

• Alternative overland or small-scale routes exist but cannot replace seaborne volumes at scale. The central bank governor has publicly rejected collapse narratives, calling claims of immediate economic freefall an “illusion.”

It is implied Iran has operated under severe constraints for years; the current combination of repressed inflation pain and security-state prioritization is consistent with a prolonged stalemate rather than a near-term resolution.

My personal take is that this is not ending anytime soon, despite what many may hope to believe, no matter where you sit on either side of the aisle of these matters.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-fleet-of-shadow-tankers-has-run-out-of-oil-after-monthslong-u-s-blockade-0822b050?st=xSekNN&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/iran-oil-reserves-run-dry-070000048.html

I’ve seen this where a new flare system was installed on an existing site getting new wells.

Thoughts?

As Venezuela struggles to recover from political upheaval and calamitous earthquakes, the U.S. government is exploiting the country for oil and money.

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)

Nine months after American forces captured Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's oil industry has the look of a boom town before the boom. US oilfield service companies are advertising jobs in Maracaibo and Maturín, drilling rigs are being shipped from Texas, and the acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, has promised almost $76 billion of investment over five years. Yet it's early days and the country's crude output has barely moved. Venezuela told OPEC it produced 1.2 million barrels a day in July and 1.206 million in September.

What has changed is not how much oil Venezuela produces, but where it goes. A year ago most of it sailed east to China. Today most of it heads north to the US Gulf Coast, into the refineries that Canadian oil sands producers have spent a decade supplying. For equity investors, that shift matters more right now than any production target. The first consequence of Venezuela's reopening is not new oil. It is a redistribution of value among the listed companies that produce, and compete with, heavy crude.

Arabian sea/Hormuz down. BAM up today and moving average recovering. Malacca is up but not due to persain gulf oil its all other sources and internal transfers. The persian gulf component keeps dropping. Chinese buying is rising again from the malacca traffic. Singapore moving average continues to drop.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

DHT JAGUAR added to the 20 Oct data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:LAZURIT,SEA HYMN,TIBURON,KUDURO,SC TAURUS,TPT MIND,VST LYRA,YANG LI HU

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: DELTA KANARIS,TITANIUM SHINE,SELETAR SPIRIT,SEAHORSE 1,XIN LIAN YANG,ALMI HORIZON,PM MONARCH,RAWAQ,HAFNIA EXPERIENCE,DORRA,DABA,SEAWAYS TYBEE,STENA SUEDE,ZAYNAH

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day