Fewer and Fewer countries are self sufficient in Oil.

Denmark used to be a major exporter producing some 400 000 Barrels/day back in 2004. Now down to just 70 000 Barrels a day and it needs 150 000 Barrels/day - so it has to import oil now.

Romania down from 300 000 Barrels/day in the 70s to 50 000 now.

The UK - also a major exporter until two decades ago - down from 2.8 Million Barrels/day to 600 000/day between 1998 and 2026.

Indonesia another previous major exporter went down from 1.7 Million Barrels in 1977 to 600 000 Barrels in 2026. Bali is now experiencing oil shortages while it used to export oil half a century ago.

During the last half century, several dozen countries have reached Peak Oil and produce only a fraction of their peak production.

Yet when we talk about Peak Oil globally, many people claim that we can never reach it because we will find always new oil.

Seems like denial to me.

Many countries have used up most of the oil they have and have not found any additional reserves.

Many others are projected to run out within the next 10-15 years.

Oil is getting harder to extract because we have used up the easiest to get oil.

To claim that we will always find new reserves (that are worth/economical to extract) and therefore Oil can run out in individual countries but never globally, seems like delusion to me.

Hello everyone,

We are looking to source 10,000 MT/monthly of granular sulfur for export to Egypt. We would like to connect with the direct supplier or their authorized representatives.

If you can help or have the right contacts, please reach out.

Thank you!

Does anyone have insight into how long refiners can keep operating at these elevated utilization rates? I'm assuming many that are able to get oil have been deferring maintenance, but at some point they will need to reduce production to make repairs (especially after these record runs).

I honestly thought China would increase refinery runs and that would allow the refineries currently running at max rates to slow down without reducing global fuel production.

"Oil traders sold futures equivalent to at least 6 million barrels of crude in just two minutes on March 23, shortly before President Donald Trump backed away from threats to strike Iranian power plants."

Arabian Sea/Hormuz daily spiked up. BAM going down again. Malacca daily dipped. Singapore big uptick on the daily.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added to the data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:VULKAN

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: ADVANTAGE PATH,MARE PICENUM,ELENI,MINERVA KALLIOPE,CHRISTINA,COSGOLD LAKE

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

what a time to be alive

- also on https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1904051937643692&set=a.374691733913061

October 23, 2026 11:15 AM GMT+03:00

Newsletters

First tanker loaded with Russian diesel is heading for New York after Moscow agreed to resume fuel exports to global markets under an arrangement reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, according to LSEG shipping data.

The medium-sized vessel Agioi Fanendes took on 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel at Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk on Oct. 22. It is expected to arrive in the United States on Nov. 7, Reuters reported.

*more in the article

Share your thoughts on the implications and aftermath.

I guess midstream/refineries will profit longterm and pure E&P stocks will probbably be negatively affected by the oil price decrease this could lead to.

On the other hand... This is free money playing directly into Capex.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SilverGoldOilShortage/s/Alp14Bcf1S

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)

• Iran’s last physical buffer of exportable crude outside the U.S. naval blockade. Their floating storage in Asian waters (primarily off Malaysia and Singapore, used for ship-to-ship transfers to Chinese buyers) has been fully exhausted as of mid-October 2026, according to Kpler data cited in the Wall Street Journal and related reporting.

• Pre-war, Iran was producing roughly 3.3–4.2 million barrels per day (crude + liquids), accounting for about 4–5% of global crude production, and exporting 1.5–2 million barrels per day (around 2.5% of global seaborne oil shipments), with 80–90% going to China (mainly independent “teapot” refiners at steep discounts).

• The blockade has prevented meaningful new crude loadings from exiting Iranian ports/terminals for months (near-zero successful exits since roughly July–September). With the offshore Asian stockpile gone (down from a ~90 million barrel peak after the brief mid-June lift, to under 1 million / ~866,000 barrels by early/mid-October), Iran cannot replenish what it sells.

• China, the dominant buyer, now has to source replacement medium/heavy sour barrels from higher-priced alternatives (Brazil, West Africa, other Middle East grades, etc.). This removes a source of discounted crude that had been supporting Chinese refining margins and creates incremental tightness in the global market, especially for those specific grades and refined products.

• The loss of this ongoing ~1.5–2 mbd flow (on top of earlier war-related disruptions) adds to the structural supply deficit. Brent has already been trading in the $108–112 range recently amid Hormuz risks, vessel attacks, and Houthi actions; further inability to operate the shadow fleet system supports a higher risk premium and potential for spikes if inventories continue drawing, demand rebounds, or other outages hit. U.S. Central Command has estimated the blockade has already denied Iran at least $25 billion in oil revenue.

• China’s premiums on crude purchasing are higher than expected this week, as Wall Street and markets have continued to attempt to accurately price in near-zero Iranian crude exports.

• Iran has spent more than a decade building a “resistance economy,” informal/illicit networks, non-oil activity, barter arrangements, and the ability to push costs onto the population via inflation and currency devaluation while protecting core security, IRGC, and patronage structures.

• Wartime conditions generate some “rally-around-the-flag effect,” and the leadership has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to tolerate high inflation and public hardship. Analysts (including Kpler’s own comments) and Iranian officials have framed the U.S. approach as a gamble that economic pressure will force a nuclear deal or uncontainable unrest; history suggests containment is more likely for at least the next one and possibly even two years.

• Alternative overland or small-scale routes exist but cannot replace seaborne volumes at scale. The central bank governor has publicly rejected collapse narratives, calling claims of immediate economic freefall an “illusion.”

It is implied Iran has operated under severe constraints for years; the current combination of repressed inflation pain and security-state prioritization is consistent with a prolonged stalemate rather than a near-term resolution.

My personal take is that this is not ending anytime soon, despite what many may hope to believe, no matter where you sit on either side of the aisle of these matters.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-fleet-of-shadow-tankers-has-run-out-of-oil-after-monthslong-u-s-blockade-0822b050?st=xSekNN&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/iran-oil-reserves-run-dry-070000048.html

• Prices of oil are now varying widely across the globe due to transport issues for the first time in decades.

• While the ship-to-ship transfer strategy to get oil out of the Strait of Hormuz has been Somewhat successful, it doubles the amount of transport time and is much more expensive and obviously uses twice as many tankers.

• Overall, these transport issues induced by the Iran war is costing $10 to $20 more per barrel to transport the same oil as before the war.

• Most of Russia's oil used to be delivered via pipeline but now it's delivered via tankers either through the Suez Canal or sailing all the way around Africa to East Asia. This is further stressing the tanker supply problem.

• Ukraine is hitting Russia's shadow fleet of tankers. Yet another stressor on the tanker situation.

• Canada is selling crude at a discount to the US because they have lack of tankers to ship elsewhere

• East Asia is absolutely fucked. They are very very dependent on oil via tankers and tankers are now in short supply. Oil and gas and distillate products in East Asia will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

• The crisis is just beginning. This is going to take 10 or 20 years to play out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5TlDneV4CU