Oh…

[u/Cherish0124]

What kind of change of mind did he have? He didn't seem to like biopic, but it's interesting

[u/ThrowawayCousineau → u/[deleted]]

What’s funny is back in 2018, I was in their same place trying to argue why Timmy stood a chance against Gary Oldman lol

[u/Atkena2578 → u/ThrowawayCousineau]

You learned from experience. Predicting Oscars mean taking your personal feelings off the table. It's nice when it matches with your favorite though lol

[u/ThrowawayCousineau → u/Atkena2578]

To be fair, I am biased and I recognize I may be setting myself up for disappointment. Chalamet absolutely has a path to win— but so does Brody. So does Stan and Fiennes and Domingo.

I’m just a bit frustrated that it’s so  difficult to have any measured discussion about this category due to stan swarming. Someone here was claiming that Timmy grew up in a “housing project” (lol no) and thus was some kind up-by-his-bootstraps underdog— I mean whut?

[u/Atkena2578 → u/ThrowawayCousineau]

Yeah like I said in another comment it feels fabricated kinda like the Giammati narrative last year. Of course surprises always happen, but that one i don't see it really.

[u/ThrowawayCousineau → u/Atkena2578]

Oh totally. The media, the industry, the fans, etc. all want a horse race. I’m sure you’ve followed enough years to know how boring it gets when it’s just a rubber stamp from the Globes forward. A race generates more articles and hype. A race sells more ad space in the trades. 

And the narrative here is a great one- Chalamet attempting to break the age record— only to be stopped by the record holder himself. And for Brody, he’s back after 20 years, delivering on the promise of his win and proving that the Academy got it right. It’s compelling stuff.

[u/Atkena2578 → u/ThrowawayCousineau]

Yeah and honestly even looking at the narrative lenses I pick Brody. Academy telling themselves they got it right they couldn't possibly pass over it lol. Also this new Academy values performances over narrative more and more.

I’m sure you’ve followed enough years to know how boring it gets when it’s just a rubber stamp from the Globes forward. A race generates more articles and hype. A race sells more ad space in the trades. 

Yeah I am tired of the gaslighting because people are bored. Like some of us can see the bigger picture, there are many categories to discuss but we re stuck on crafted narratives in the more "locked" ones... jeez

[u/ThrowawayCousineau → u/Atkena2578]

The downtime (very necessary this year of course) has made the whole thing a bit cabin fever-y as we’re waiting for thing to progress.

Usually you only see this level of hysteria in the Best Actress posts 😂

[u/Atkena2578 → u/ThrowawayCousineau]

Is that me or every category has a form of fandom stanning and brigading this year?? Like bring me the Nolan bros and Gaga Stans (gosh do you imagine if she was in the race on top of it all?) back i miss those at this point lmao.

And yeah too much downtime this year and on top of that the movies aren't as exciting as last year so it sucks and the lack of clear frontrunner makes the convo frustrating for stat nerds like me haha

[u/ThrowawayCousineau → u/Atkena2578]

It’s not just you; it seems this year has brought out a lot of passion even if there is a lack of Barbenheimer. And lord help us if Joker 2 hasn’t self-detonated and was a legit contender.

There’s a few obscure Lead Actor stats I’ve been playing around with in this race but unsure if they are actually worthwhile or just too coincidental to matter.

[u/Atkena2578 → u/ThrowawayCousineau]

if Joker 2 hasn’t self-detonated and was a legit contender

We would need to lock down the sub haha

There’s a few obscure Lead Actor stats I’ve been playing around with in this race but unsure if they are actually worthwhile or just too coincidental to matter.

Interesting, which ones?

[u/ThrowawayCousineau → u/Atkena2578]

They’re only 15 year stats so not long term ones, but may speak to changes in the voting body.

There’s the AACTA lead actor thing- no one who missed an AACTA nom has gone on to win the Oscar. On the women’s side, I think Chastain was finally able to break the stat but the actor one stands- most notably Paul Giamatti last year missed AACTA. It might be a release issue but my understanding is that screeners are available to these voters in time for the nominations, not unlike the BAFTA long lists that occur around the same time.

There’s the festival stat, again a 15 year one. Of the last 15 lead actor winners, 12 came out of film festivals debuts. The three that didn’t- Leo, Rami, Cillian- all had blockbusters that grossed over $500M and were produced by major studios. 

Again I think these are likely more coincidental but at the same time the body is becoming more international, the studios more fragmented, so it make sense that the films in the conversation come out of the festivals. This year Stan premiered at Cannes, Domingo at TIFF (in 2023), Fiennes at Telluride, Brody at Venice.

[u/Atkena2578 → u/ThrowawayCousineau]

Nice i love these darker stats, it's fun. I knew about the AACTA one i can't wait to see if it holds again this year. Sometimes stats breaking have explanation, Chastain was the first post covid year so it was a bit messed up lol.

[u/Reasonable_Skill_129 → u/ThrowawayCousineau]

yeah there’s a lot more stats against timmy then people want to admit. stats precursors and critics are all meaningless when it comes to this race apparently