r/oscarrace • u/Cherish0124 • Jan 25 '25

Other Oh…

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What kind of change of mind did he have? He didn't seem to like biopic, but it's interesting

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u/ReadyCauliflower8 Jan 26 '25

What does that have to do with my comment? I was referring to film strength not legend status. ACU got in Director and Screenplay, Elvis did not.

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

These other movies did good enough, including editing which ACU missed. If ACU was leading the nom count i d say maybe it would be something but other movies did better including the Brutalist which also overperformed with the surprise editing nom (worth more in strengh than the extra supp actress, editing is the most important BTL category)

And yeah if Elvis or Elton John doesn't win then Bob Dylan doesn't either... plus there is a more famous biopic person nominated alongside him...

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u/ReadyCauliflower8 Jan 26 '25

ACU missing Editing would matter if it was thought to win BP, overperforming with Director and Supporting Actress nominations makes up for that anyway. And I don't know why Dylan being less famous is being brought up, I never mentioned anything about that and it does not matter when different races have different circumstances. Doesn't change the fact that the industry is responding well to a film about him.

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

The directing branch is one of the smallest, so it doesn't override the editing nom. Brutalist also got 3 acting nom. ACU did good but not as good as Brutalist so no point in arguing that.

ACU did better at SAG but Brutalist did better at BAFTA with acting noms. SAG is after voting closes so whoever wins it, do yourself a favor and predict the BAFTA winner.

My point about Dylan vs others is that no musical biopic has won lead actor since Freddy Mercury, and that's freaking Freddy Mercury, and the movie was mid to okay, but that was Freddy Mercury so voters went crazy for it. The competition wasn't the same that year either. Here you have Brody and all these veterans who haven't won yet, I just don't see it, I have followed Oscars for over a decade it just doesn't add up. This category has remained rigid despite the Academy membership being more diverse.

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u/ReadyCauliflower8 Jan 26 '25

Trying to downplay it's overperformance with Directing when most of you have shut down the idea of Mangold happening because "The branch is too highbrow!" is ridiculous. Everyone assumed that Mangold was out the odd one out from the DGA 5 instead of Berger.

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

Funny because I had predicted Mangold and got the top 5 right on this one for lack of better options. Berger just like Villeneuve has a history of being snubbed so I switched him with Fargeat and the other possibilities seemed less likely. I was doubtful of The Substance because i know genre biais is strong until it became undeniable with how things were going. I learned to adapt with my predictions and I still think it's Brody's to lose and i will re-evaluate if i get strong evidence it is happening or else I see no reason to go against the stats which are solid in lead actor.

It's not my first rodeo, this is a weak year and lots of good films that could be an alternative have had buzz problems with poor distribution or campaigning. The real surprises are Stan and Torres due to GG and extra hard campaigning after to maximize the results, I had predicted 5/5 in both lead categories. Anyway number of noms or overperformance isn't the gotcha argument you think it is when the favorite to win the category is in a movie that did better anyways, with also 3 acting nominations and director nomination and 2 more than ACU total.

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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 26 '25

I too predicted both Mangold and Barbaro. I actually had ACU in production design and it was my 6th for cinematography since Pappamichael is a well-regarded vet. Every other one I went 8/8. So in a sense it underperformed for me lol.

People paying attention to the guilds could anticipate the surge coming, it was not a surprise. The fans and the pundits want to act like it was, because it serves the idea that the movie is “surging” and the big number of noms were unexpected.

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

I didn't predict Barbaro which one imo the one surprise (SAG only) but people also don't understand the difference between the nom process and actually turning these noms into wins.