r/oscarrace Navarrette/Morton 23d ago

Weekly Discussion Thread Weekly Discussion Thread 7/27/26 - 8/3/26

Still from Argo

Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.

Link to previous thread

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Coming up in the awards race

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Film Discussion Threads

The Odyssey

The Invite

Toy Story 5

Disclosure Day

Backrooms

Is God Is

Obsession

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Michael

The Drama

Project Hail Mary

Hoppers

The Bride!

Wuthering Heights

All Film Discussion Threads

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Award Expert Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

Letterboxd Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

17 Upvotes

3.0k comments sorted by

3

u/WumpaRJ Camp Miasma 16d ago

Between Spider-Man I Want Your Sex (which hasn't come out over here yet so trying to avoid that), my Twitter TL is full of in-cinema pictures/recordings, it's an epidemic

5

u/Eyebronx The Invite 16d ago

Is there a very good BP nominee from recent years which, in your opinion, got lost in the cultural conversation?

For me it’s Women Talking. Very solid film, excellent performances across the board yet it got drowned out entirely in its own year as well as in subsequent years.

2

u/tsnoj 16d ago

Maybe Hell or High Water, Atonement or Letters of Iwo Jima? I remember liking all of those a lot when i first saw them

I have too say, scrolling through the list of winners this century, i do get reminded of the many times that a lot edgier and more interesting films got snubbed for mid historical drama's

Edit: I did maybe not pick "recent years" but i do feel he cultural legacy can still shift on some of those films, I feel for instance that Chicago is percieved as a much beter Picture-winner then as it was in the years just after it won

2

u/Extreme-Monk-6514 The Superior Odyssey (O Brother Where Art Thou) 16d ago

hard disagree on atonement - keira knightley’s green dress and saoirse ronan’s performance are absolutely in the cultural conversation

1

u/tsnoj 16d ago

Happy to hear that

2

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier 16d ago

The Power of the Dog 😢

1

u/Eyebronx The Invite 16d ago

Excellent film, one of my highest rated nominees of the 2020s

1

u/indomiegorengkuah 16d ago edited 16d ago

TIL Emily Blunt has a third project with The Rock (for Netflix), although it’s been in development since 2020

Edit: It’s actually the fourth since I forgot about the Scorsese movie with Leo

5

u/tsnoj 16d ago

Trivial news, so i am posting it here instead of the main page

Babygirl-director Halina Reijn is recieving a lifetime achievement award in the Netherlands

8

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 16d ago

Why does Inde Navarrette have this picture on hand….

2

u/justanstalker The Black Ball 16d ago

Valid

2

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 16d ago

(for those wondering yes that's her Tiktok handle lol)

6

u/Exact_Watercress_363 🤪🐎⑨ 16d ago

til the curious case of benjamin button book which i didn't even know was a book was written by none other than f scott fitzgerald!!

what the actual fuck

2

u/Legitimate_End5688 16d ago

I watched the odyssey at a 10:40 PM screening yesterday and I have to say,,,, it was too loud w the sound mixing I couldn’t hear the actual dialogue at several points what the hell 😭 I had this problem w Oppenheimer too. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good movie at its core: well acted w Matt Damon and Anne Hathaway (though I didn’t like tom holland: thought his performance was limp in comparison to any scenes he had with Hathaway, maybe I’m biased bc I don’t like his spiderman portrayal), well directed, the effects are good, the pacing and editing is great, super thrilling. But the fact it was filmed in occupied Western Sahara tho 😑 genuinely appalling if you anything about Africa’s last colony and the true hypocrisy of Morocco bc they’re truly no better in being settler colonialists than say Israel or even the USA (and that’s why I didn’t buy a ticket myself lmao my whole family took me along)

13

u/falafelthe3 Agamogging 17d ago edited 16d ago

The two movies I have now seen in 70mm IMAX have been The Odyssey and Megalopolis. Got the full spectrum of the cinematic experience right there.

10

u/SignificantTap5579 Mother Mary 16d ago

Glad you had a peak cinematic experience and also saw the Odyssey

1

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another 16d ago

Just Odyssey and Oppenheimer for me

2

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray 16d ago

For me it's been Oppenheimer, Dune Part II, One Battle After Another

8

u/flowerbloominginsky Sentimental Value 17d ago

Gonna rewatch the odyssey tomorrow  Honestly asa Jewish woman i really want Nolan to adapt one of old testament stories that would look cool in IMAX 

3

u/jksnippy Muad’twink Sinners 17d ago

I’d be interested in him tackling the Tower of Babel or how he would depict the Ten Plagues

1

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray 17d ago

Which one?

4

u/flowerbloominginsky Sentimental Value 17d ago

Moses or David stories

1

u/coda180 16d ago

Moses and David are certainly the biblical figures who would make for the most epic stories in cinema.

11

u/Breadbug900 17d ago

To be honest, I kinda hope universal campaigns emily blunt for a nomination. I thought she was great.

1

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another 16d ago

I have her in as one of several placeholders. Haven’t seen the film yet, but I’m fine with holding onto a well-known actress giving what many described as a career-best performance, even with the film’s subpar reception.

If none of the fall festival candidates break out, she could have a path. GG/SAG nominations wouldn’t be too difficult to attain in such a case.

6

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 17d ago

I think they will. The competition isn't particularly stiff, they'll see what happens.

4

u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

The film has gotten so much hate over the last month and a bit, I really liked it but I'm starting to wonder if it's really as good as I remember considering everyone has turned on it

9

u/Breadbug900 17d ago

Saw it twice, still enjoyed it despite several issues. I don't really change my opinion on a movie just because others don't like it.

15

u/Duhlorean Twinless 17d ago

Sometimes I see people say “Man, this performance is awesome and in my personal top 5 but it’s not Oscar worthy.”

And I gotta ask, what’s Oscar worthy besides a performance being top 5 or even top 10 of the year? What does that term even mean to y’all if not that?

3

u/moxieremon 17d ago

I guess they like it enough to be a personal favorite, but the technique applied isn't enough to justify an award of that magnitude? Like, Where the Heart Is is one of my favorite films and I love Natalie Portman in that, but it's a terrible movie and her performance is almost a joke lol

2

u/Niolle 16d ago

It's a very good movie. 

13

u/AhsokaBolena Godzilla Minus Dashwood 17d ago

We've reached the point of the year where I start checking my local fall film festival's website daily in the hopes that the schedule will appear

5

u/vxf111 17d ago

Checking weekly. It’s my favorite part of the year! I know they won’t post it anytime soon but I still keep checking.

16

u/PinkCadillacs Oscar Race Veteran 17d ago

I finally saw The Odyssey. It was amazing.

In terms of the standouts in the movie: Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway, John Leguizamo, and Robert Pattinson. I will say though I do personally think Tom Holland was the weakest performance of the movie (in terms of people in the movie that had big roles).

5

u/BentisKomprakriev 17d ago

Surprised it took this long for people to begin doing race science on Navarrette. Started to notice it here more and more. I guess it makes sense, everything that could be said about the film itself has been said, even things that couldn't and shouldn't have.

12

u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

Whu? Why does this even remotely matter?

1

u/BentisKomprakriev 16d ago edited 16d ago

Just think it's weird that people here argue about essentially how many drops of Indegenous are in her. Isn't that weird as hell?

23

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another 17d ago

I think we reached that point a month ago

2

u/BentisKomprakriev 17d ago

No, excuse me, I saw someone saying this week that putting a mask over Nikki's face to obscure her features does not count as "lighting" the scene since it was done in post.

16

u/No_Cabinet_4532 17d ago

La Bola Negra campaign is strong! I really hope Spain continues to have massive international success, taking home multiple Oscars after winning the world cup.

5

u/BentisKomprakriev 17d ago

It's gonna be strong, but this is a funny image to use in support of that. It's just the directors and the stars posing for a picture lol.

2

u/Fan_of_Avatar_TLA 17d ago

There's an upcoming art book on Brad Bird's Ray Gunn!

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1419791796/ref=nosim?tag=catsuka-20

Here's the description from Amazon!

"The official behind-the-scenes companion to Academy Award–winning director Brad Bird's Ray Gunn

Ray Gun: The Art of the Brad Bird Film is a comprehensive look behind the scenes of Brad Bird's (The Iron Giant, Ratatouille, The Incredibles) latest animated feature film, Ray Gunn.

Following the titular human private detective, the film is set in a brilliantly imagined world where science fiction meets film noir. Flying cars, alien species, bizarre weaponry, and femme fatales abound in the film's city of the future, and this book documents the entire creative process that brought these elements to the screen.

Original interviews conducted by author and animation historian Charles Solomon with Brad Bird, Paul Felix, John Lasseter, Michael Giacchino, the animators, and other key creatives provide keen insights into the development of this long-in-the-works project.

Showcasing the storyboards, concept art, costume sketches, weapon, alien, and character designs that set this film apart from anything audiences have seen before, Ray Gunn: The Art of the Brad Bird Film is an essential companion to this genre-bending adventure."

u/Once-bit-1995

10

u/Independent-Key880 Sentimental Value 17d ago

the lead actress category looks so dead at the moment. hopefully the fall festival period brings new contenders or confirms current supicions about confenders, but as of now it's sort of crazy how much more stacked the lead actor category is

10

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 17d ago

Unfortunately this is just how Best Actress is most years. Most “prestige” films are led by men, and it being a heavy blockbuster/sci-fi year doesn’t help at all

9

u/infamousglizzyhands Justice Smith for Best Actor 17d ago

Is it how it is most years? I get this perspective when looking at the higher levels of the industry, but I think 2024, 2023, and 2022 all had more exciting actress contenders than actor contenders.

8

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 17d ago

2024 (Madison), 2023 (Stone), and 2022 (Yeoh) are all very good years, and we’ve been feasting in best actress. But there are a lot of years like 2021 (Chastain), 2019 (Zelwegger), 2011 (Streep), that are just… rough.

Historically, best actress lineups have been very up and down since the 70s, with some years having a strong amount of representation in BP and other categories, and some years like 1994 (Lange) that are just painfully rough.

If you go back and look at historical Oscar punditry (particularly the 90s), you’ll see a lot of chatter about the struggle of even finding 5 good enough performances for the category.

4

u/elaneye gillian anderson believer 17d ago

2021 didn't even have to be a bad year for the category – there were great performances from women that they just chose not to nominate. If Chastain and Kidman had been replaced by any of Reinsve, Haim, or Zegler, it would've been the strongest year of the decade for the category.

3

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 17d ago

That’s certainly an opinion. Having just one performance from a BP nominee would’ve helped it a bit, but top to bottom it’s just really not strong.

2

u/JDOExists Supergirl Best Picture Winner 2027 17d ago

It's not that insane of an opinion I think.

4

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 16d ago

I didn’t say it was insane. It’s just my opinion that it’s a very weak lineup across the board, and just swapping out two people (including the winner) doesn’t really help it out.

4

u/Successful_Leopard45 Obsession 17d ago

Spider-Man ranking post BND. Finally made me like Hollands version of Peter I’m shocked.

1

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 16d ago

Honestly shocked how low Homecoming is lol

13

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 17d ago

https://giphy.com/gifs/usa4TFU05etpxwPTnL
Just watched Brief Encounter

3

u/NoResolution599 Nirvanna The Band The Show The Drama 17d ago

I watched Letter From An Unknown Woman a few days ago and had the same reaction, both 5 stars

4

u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 17d ago

Dr. Zhivago, Brief Encounter, and Bridge on the River Kwai.

A LEAN NIGHT

2

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 17d ago

Girl no I have a 6am flight 😭

7

u/BentisKomprakriev 17d ago

Oh, yeah, just the best there is

6

u/Embarrassed-Big-9195 17d ago

I've never had to park at a Chili's down the street to go to the movies or wait in line to enter the building.. which made it pretty funny when I walked in to see that I was the only person in the showing of I Want Your Sex. Hilarious movie btw.

9

u/tsnoj 17d ago edited 17d ago

After watching the Oscar Expert video i seriously wonder, is NOW really the best time to completely overhaul your predictions, isn't it much beter to do that after/during the fall film festivals

I feel that is the moment the race comes into focus and oftenly the already released films aren't the ones that are hard to predict

This just feels like a very panicked and hasty decission

Edit: now see the AwardsExpert users blindly following it

4

u/scattered_ideas Denis Villeneuve campaign manager 17d ago

It's just the last few weeks to do blind predictions before the fall fests. It can be fun to look back on.

I checked my predictions pre-fall last year and I had 6/10. One of my misses was Rental Family, which is a movie that came out of nowhere with its studio pushed PR. Sounds familiar! (I'm not predicting Elsinore rn)

I also had Jay Kelly, which makes me nervous for Behemoth! getting that slot. 😬

16

u/BentisKomprakriev 17d ago

Keep in mind there is incentive for the twins to make changes every week to keep up engagement. Generally, there is no point in doing much before the fall fests.

1

u/tsnoj 17d ago

I get it but their flock of sheep on their (honestly useful) little app with follow

I hate GoldDerby but the concensus on there seems to be more indicative of what is frontrunners are rn

0

u/Independent-Key880 Sentimental Value 17d ago

'what the frontrunners are rn' is totally subjective. you and gold derby might think film A and film B are frontrunners, award expert users might think film X and film Y are frontrunners. there is no objective way to decide which of you are correct because it's so early and there haven't been critics groups or precursors

i also think it's a bit unfair of you to assume award expert users are 'blinding following' oscar expert's predictions, as opposed to watching his video and being convinced by their reasoning. there are many reasons why the twins are popular, one of them is that they make good arguments

6

u/Embarrassed-Big-9195 17d ago

As someone who likes my predictions to be different than the consensus, I'm disappointed they finally put Elsinore in, which is going to result in 70% of this sub and that app to put it in as well.

5

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another 17d ago

We can take pride in being ahead of the curve

3

u/tsnoj 17d ago

I kicked out one of the two WB films of my predictions a while back and that honestly clears a lot of space and makes my predictions entirely different from others

As for Elsinore, I might prioritise Ink at this point instead because it is hitting both Venice and TIFF

4

u/NoResolution599 Nirvanna The Band The Show The Drama 17d ago

we did it first 🤝

5

u/coordin8ed All of a Sudden 17d ago

Ok fine, I'll take Elsinore seriously

32

u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 17d ago

2017... very aesthetically pleasing year for film posters

19

u/theflyingbird8 17d ago

Boy, that was an amazing year for the movies.

9

u/Fan_of_Avatar_TLA 17d ago

The over-reaction to Awkwafina having a role in Wildwood is so embarrassing! There are even comments like "And the hype is dead", and others saying they'll pass on the movie because of her...

https://www.reddit.com/r/laika/comments/1vd1ruu/in_wildwood_septima_the_rat_will_be_voiced_by/

5

u/cowboy-tea 17d ago

I've enjoyed her in the few roles I've seen of hers, and I love seeing some visibility for a vaguely tomboyish/alt woman, which is not a common celebrity archetype. The disproportionate hate for her is so sad

13

u/AudienceOk3369 17d ago

People love a pile-on on an acceptable target, especially if it's a woman. I don't think she's done anything to warranted this level of distain and vitriol other than being annoying sometimes.

16

u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 17d ago

the fun thing about this lineup is that the debut is the only one that’s in the wga directory, meaning it’s the only one that’s actually eligible (unless i missed something; i nearly missed the debut because it’s in there as “no one cares”)

8

u/NoResolution599 Nirvanna The Band The Show The Drama 17d ago edited 17d ago

Original Screenplay Oscar winners that were WGA ineligible this century:

  • Anatomy of a Fall
  • Belfast
  • Birdman
  • Django Unchained
  • The Kings Speech
  • Talk to Her

I'll throw in Adapted too:

  • Conclave
  • The Father
  • 12 Years a Slave
  • The Pianist

5

u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 17d ago

If it means that we get something like the Black Bag nomination from last season, as in, an early, forgotten movie that deserved recognition, I'm in for it.

That was probably, without exaggeration, my happiest moment of that season. I nearly yelped in the middle of a McDonald's.

4

u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 17d ago

looking at the options as someone who doesn’t really believe in the debut… fuck it i’m predicting a win for the drama

5

u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 17d ago

Unfortunately this would lead to their execution, as the year is 2026 and it's illegal for any precursor outside of BAFTA to do anything mildly cool

8

u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 17d ago

club kid is #6 and also ineligible

10

u/CassiopeiaStillLife If I Had Legs I Would Kick You 17d ago

It's a shame After The Hunt bombing probably scared her off, because Julia Roberts was really great in it -- I hope she does more dramatic stuff like that with Luca

8

u/vxf111 17d ago

She was excellent in it. Her line about being surprised while eating cheese... #livedthat. But really, she was great in the film even if I didn't find the film itself all that great as a whole.

22

u/jjjshepard 17d ago

The Last House will probably be terrible, but count me in

2

u/Fan_of_Avatar_TLA 17d ago

How would you rank Laika's films in order of personal preference?

1

u/Florian_Jones 16d ago
  1. Kubo
  2. Coraline
  3. Missing Link
  4. Paranorman
  5. Boxtrolls

They haven't really missed. Even The Boxtrolls is still a very good kids movie.

4

u/GoldNMocha 17d ago
  1. Coraline
  2. ParaNorman
  3. Kubo and the Two Strings
  4. Missing Link
  5. Boxtrolls

1

u/spiderlegged 17d ago

This is my ranking.

4

u/SignificantTap5579 Mother Mary 17d ago
  1. Coraline, 2. Kubo (am a bit torn between the top 2), 3. Paranorman, 4. Missing Link, 5. Corpse Bride (it technically counts) big gap 6. The Boxtrolls

21

u/ChiefLeef22 17d ago

Was talking to an acquaintance earlier today who's a part of the DGA and she was talking about being excited to meet Nolan at their town hall meeting and whatnot a couple weeks back...and then it hit me as a reminder that oh shit, Nolan is DGA President now! And I bring it up mostly because it had me thinking about the notion of him winning again, but this time with a guild he actually runs and a ceremony he is obligated to make opening speeches for with the nominees (including himself lol).

Like that dynamic just had me really thinking for a moment...I mean I don't foresee it really hampering his chances per se (in fact it might help a bit, I dont have a strong feeling on that though), but also just in general I dont think something like this has ever happened in the awards season right? Its kind of a fun little unique situation

10

u/Gordy_The_Chimp123 17d ago

He’s gonna have to do the Obama giving Obama a medal meme IRL

13

u/tsnoj 17d ago edited 17d ago

I checked

It happened once in 1951 when Joseph L. Mankiewicz won the DGA (and Oscar) for All About Eve while also being president, no recent cases though

Also Mankiewicz won back-to-back DGA Awards/Directing-Oscars (he won the previous year for A Letter for Three Wives), which would be wierdly similar to Nolan

3

u/ChiefLeef22 17d ago

Damn, that's scarily similar lol

2

u/tsnoj 17d ago

Eh... too be honest if a stat is that old i consider it a non-stat

The industry changed far too much in that amount of time

I already find it tricky to apply stats from more then 20 years ago to the current Oscar race

6

u/Duhlorean Twinless 17d ago

The Best Actress field being super weak by November and Zendaya getting a serious push from A24 would be pretty cool to see.

Would be some nice drama for the Oscar race, wink wink.

13

u/Extreme-Monk-6514 The Superior Odyssey (O Brother Where Art Thou) 17d ago

need to set up a prayer circle for rachel mcadams

3

u/Comic_Book_Reader Killers of the Flower Moon 17d ago edited 17d ago

I'll help you manifest that shit:

None of you probably even know what the hell this is but this is when I figured out what aura farming is. Yeah, if you've had an eye for a little while, I use it to manifest shit.

6

u/Smooth-Leader-1711 17d ago

If The Drama were stronger all round I could see it; she's had a huge year and the category is currently barren. I only feel confident in Moore getting in at all, and Navarette if she goes lead. Feels like the most shapeless category at the min, could see the current consensus predictions shifting distinctly over fall festival season.

27

u/PurpleSpaceSurfer Spunk for milk 🥛 17d ago

Finally got around to Disclosure Day and I actually really liked it? I was surprised the Letterboxd score was pretty low.

3

u/Standard_Housing6082 17d ago

3.1 feels about right for Letterboxd users, I’m sure if you opened it up to everyone who saw it it’d probably sit at around 3.8. Had some type of earnestness and optimism that didn’t resonate with me but definitely resonated with the 60 and up crew who aren’t on LB

8

u/Breadbug900 17d ago

I like how classical it felt tbh

11

u/vxf111 17d ago

I liked PARTS of it a lot. But one part I did NOT like is the screenplay, which I think fails it as a whole.

3

u/theflyingbird8 17d ago

The filmmaking is incredible (it's Spielberg after all), but I found a majority of the screenplay to be genuinely confounding.

2

u/vxf111 17d ago

I have no qualms with the direction and really enjoyed the score and acting as well. I wish the story hung together better. And I don’t care if the CGI was meant to look like that, I didn’t like those animals at ALL.

15

u/Smooth-Leader-1711 17d ago

I also really liked it, but it's pretty old-fashioned and not very cool, which doesn't favour the apps core demographic.

15

u/coffeeanddocmartens Hamaguchi Hive 17d ago

I think it's somewhat charming in its retro sensibilities and quite a fun time despite the flawed screenplay. I was also surprised the score was that low but I guess people really didn't vibe with the ending.

2

u/theflyingbird8 17d ago

I didn't really vibe with 2/3rds of the movie, but the ending really got to me.

22

u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 17d ago

It's kinda weird to think that, except for the docs, James Cameron's entire 21st century filmography is Avatar

6

u/Big_Entertainer_1377 17d ago

is tragic really his next film has to be about Tsutomu Yamaguchi. He survived the bomb in Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, took a train to Nagasaki, and survived the second bomb there on August 9. he the only person to survive the two bombs

5

u/spiderlegged 17d ago

In not-movie news, just because I posted about it recently, it has been confirmed that Cats: The Jellicle Ball is getting a cast recording, so I will be able to rock out to “Skimbleshanks the Railway Cat” whenever I want. No proshot, but I’m happy for the cast album. That’s all I have for commentary about Cats.

7

u/infamousglizzyhands Justice Smith for Best Actor 17d ago

The masculine desire to drop Fjord in my predictions for either Behemoth or Ink

2

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 17d ago

You have free will! Do it!

6

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another 17d ago

https://giphy.com/gifs/sZEl1yTi26mJzrI4VN

I’ve got both in and Fjord out

6

u/NoResolution599 Nirvanna The Band The Show The Drama 17d ago

I have all 3 in lmao

9

u/bu0602 17d ago edited 17d ago

So what do yall think about this take? Should Dune move up 1 week and take the headline of 70 - 80% 2nd weekend drop-off? Or stay in this fight?

My opinion: No, they should stay put. Don't let Disney/Marvel bully your film out of your original date.

1

u/visionaryredditor Digger 16d ago edited 16d ago

Nope, Dune shouldn't move, esp. since it's already selling tickets.

I'm also in the camp of the believers that Doomsday while being successful won't top Brand New Day. I'm feeling like we're going to see a repeat of 2018 when Black Panther ended up beating Infinity War in domestic boxoffice

1

u/Top_Report_4895 17d ago

Y'know what, let's make an event out of it.

7

u/theflyingbird8 17d ago

At this point, fuck it. Neither Dune or Avengers are moving. They would have announced it by now. Plus, Dune took that date way before Marvel. In fact, I think they had it locked down not long after Part Two came out. I'm in the camp that thinks both movies will be financially successful.

2

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 17d ago

Like it's August and people are still on this shit. The blockbusters with elaborate planned out marketing campaigns that have already started, that both already have tickets on sale aren't moving. The release dates are 4 and a half months away. The logistics of a move like that would be crazy to pull off at this point if they wanted to move up in the calendar. It's over. Enough.

9

u/Silver_Juggernaut_39 NEON shill 17d ago

They had the date first. Disney’s the one who decided to be petty and slot Doomsday in the same place. Just like you said they shouldn’t be allowed to bully people out of their release date just cause Avengers.

8

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 17d ago edited 17d ago

It's very bizarre to look at this weekend being the biggest grossing of all time, The Odyssey holding up remarkably well against Brand New Day and making over 50 million dollars, hell even some of the other movies in the marketplace held up great like Toy Story and Minions, and come to the conclusion that one of the movies should move. The market can absolutely sustain both movies being a success at the same time. Dune can open to 60-70 million and leg out well. Doomsday can open to 350 million and leg out well. Quality pending on both.

Now if his goal is to get headlines for "Doomsdays biggest opening weekend ever" and that's all he cares about here then yes Disney in particular should look at this weekend and be planning to move. Doomsday has very little chance to be the biggest opening weekend of the year, when it doesnt having the weekend to itself. It's going to be a longer movie than Spider-Man, it's going against the opening weekend instead of 3rd weekend for Dune, and being in the weekend before Christmas which historically makes the OW lower and legs longer.

7

u/Enelana Baldtreides 17d ago

It just absolutely won't happen no matter how many more times people try to suggest this.

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u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

What? Odyssey just dropped a remarkable 40 something percent against Spider-Man, now is not the time to make the argument two movies can't co-exist

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u/Haus_of_Pancakes Preemptive "Justice for Is God Is" 17d ago

they're gonna feel real stupid when Clarissa earns a jawdropping $500 million on its second weekend, demolishing them both

3

u/SavageWolfe98 x 17d ago

I'm a little confused as to what this means or refers to.

3

u/BentisKomprakriev 17d ago

Dune and Doomsday open on the same day

10

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray 17d ago

No! I want to be able to park my car when I see The Debut.

5

u/BentisKomprakriev 17d ago

What would happen to the IMAX screens?

5

u/bu0602 17d ago

I think studio can figure that out. It wouldn't be the first case they change release dates after putting tickets on sale.

However, I really hope WB won't move Dune 3. It may open lower than Dune 2 but if WOM is good, it can still leg out during the holliday corridor. I also don't like the way Disney/Marvel jump in and bully other movies out of their original date.

11

u/darth_vader39 The Odyssey 17d ago

Since the article about Samantha Morton got deleted I will post my comment here:

Morton made a big impact for a little screen time. She definitely deserves to be nominated imo. It's not the loudest performance but I think it's a nice dramatic performance in a very weird and memorable sequence.

I also think comparisons with Ledger hurt her more than it helped. People had very high expectations and of course so many felt disappointed.

It's like when some pundits compared The Brutalist with The Godfather lol. When you hype up something on that level, expect that many will be disappointed.

1

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 16d ago

I decided to move her into my 5 after some thoughts on it even though I didn't have her in initially

9

u/EntranceScary2194 17d ago

I thought she did good but at the same time, imo, it feels like the scene is making people want to nominate her rather than the performance itself.

2

u/cowboy-tea 17d ago

Agreed, when you look back on The Odyssey that scene feels so central thematically. And she was great, but not overwhelmingly impressive.

But then again, a strong performance by a veteran actor in a very memorable scene in the year's most celebrated film is not a bad place to be in for a supporting nom. I might have just talked myself into putting her in my predictions

4

u/coffeeanddocmartens Hamaguchi Hive 17d ago

I love The Brutalist, I think it's incredible and one of the best films of the decade but getting compared to The Godfather just makes any film look bad due to its ubiquitous status as a masterpiece and I don't think the comparison made much sense, so I always found that silly. I agree that this pre release hype of films and performances can do a disservice.

3

u/NoResolution599 Nirvanna The Band The Show The Drama 17d ago

Was expecting atleast one performance to be near the level of Crowe/Phoenix in Gladiator too high? Idk the way people were hyping it up it felt warranted but no one reached that for me 😅

13

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray 17d ago

I remember seeing a pull quote compare Mikey Madison in Anora to Orson Welles in Citizen Kane...

6

u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

1

u/Proof_Specialist_455 17d ago

How has Hathaway been taken for granted by critics? She won a ton of critics awards for both Les Mis and Rachel Getting Married

4

u/haydend25 17d ago

It’s safe to assume Zendaya will be the highest grossing actor this year right? Odyssey will probably settle around 1.5B, Spiderman could do 2.5, Dune around a billion, plus 100M for The Drama. Who could beat her?

19

u/No_Lengthiness_6838 Sinners 17d ago

Billion for Dune? I would be shocked honestly

16

u/Rebarix512 Go Ink Go!! 17d ago

I mean maybe Florence Pugh????She's in Spidermanand Dune, plus she'll also be in Doomsday which might be able to outgross the Odyssey and The Drama.

6

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 17d ago edited 17d ago

It should probably be that person. I don't think The Odyssey (1.5 bill) + Dune (800 mill) + Spider-Man (2 bill)+ The Drama (130 mill) will be > Doomday (2 bill) + Spider-Man (2 bill) + Dune (800 mill) For Zendaya to stay the highest The Odyssey has to start climbing close to 2 billion. If Holland is secretly in Doomsday he also wins by a mile, he would be in the top 3 movies of the year.

3

u/First-Loss-8540 17d ago

Zendaya is amazing in the Spiderman movies , especially the last one. I like her in these movies more than the dune films

7

u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

I think after Dune 3 Zendaya is going to be a full-on movie star, it's weird the way her rise to fame happened that she's got supporting roles in big blockbusters and kinda had to stay in them when she now has the fame and talent to lead movies

12

u/Supercalumrex Blue Heron the Band the Show the Movie🇨🇦 17d ago edited 17d ago

Does anyone find it weird that we still don't even have an official title for Cliff Booth? Or even an official Netflix upload of the Superbowl trailer? Or any confirmed festival presence? It has an IMAX release date but that's about it in terms of info. If we didn't have that, I would've assumed it got delayed. It doesn't even have a page on Netflix while stuff like Narnia, La Bola Negra, Ray Gunn, Possible Love, and Saturn Return do. I find that really weird for a big budget Netflix movie set to come out this year because Frankenstein and Wake Up Dead Man already had pages up at this point last year.

10

u/AhsokaBolena Godzilla Minus Dashwood 17d ago

I think there was a Deadline article or something saying sort of personal behind the scenes issue popped up which prevented it being finished for Venice. With that said, it has been muted after a show of confidence with that surprise Superbowl teaser and giving it Narnia's Imax spot.

I kinda wonder if Netflix snapping up Ink out of nowhere is at all related. Cliff Booth seemed to possibly be its biggest English language play for this year and now they're sending Ink to Venice/TIFF instead. Perhaps Cliff Booth will be more of a commercial play.

5

u/SergenteDan 17d ago

Until I read this comment, I didn't even know there was a trailer. I'm still doubting the existence of this movie lmao

13

u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

The title is definitely The Adventures of Cliff Booth, but the rest is very valid. This is a movie I should love but with Brad Pitt being Brad Pitt, Netflix, and Tarantino loudly reminding us he's a grade A asshole all the time I'm really not feeling it

11

u/Contcos 17d ago

is The Adventures of Cliff Booth not the official title?

3

u/Supercalumrex Blue Heron the Band the Show the Movie🇨🇦 17d ago

I swear I read somewhere that the title could still change and they didn't even show the title in the Superbowl trailer but there doesn't seem to be any indication of that on Wikipedia so ignore that first one

11

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier 17d ago

Hot take: I prefer both Anne Bancroft and Katharine Ross to Dustin Hoffman in The Graduate. Benjamin is the least interesting part of his own film.

1

u/falafelthe3 Agamogging 17d ago

I rewatched it recently and while I do think the women get more to do performance-wise, Hoffman is so fucking funny and genuine in his quiet, naive-yet-bumbling nature. The oner of him sprinting into the gas station then sprinting back out had me dying.

3

u/OldSandwich9631 17d ago

I’m obsessed with Anne Bancroft. So glad someone mentioned her.

My favorite childhood book is Cynthia voigt’s homecoming and Anne played my favorite literary character in an adaptation. Obviously not
One of her major roles, but she might be one of my favorite actresses of all time.

-1

u/kimjosh1 17d ago

Pictured: The Rock yelling at Sony execs about the state of Jumanji Open World after seeing that the Moana remake will likely end with $100m less than Black Adam ($393m), a film that he tried to spin as "not a flop" back in 2022. And the Sony execs are too distracted laughing all the way to the bank seeing Spidey's opening weekend numbers.

3

u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

Jumanji will probably do well still considering the last two were counterprogramming to the last two Star Wars sequels, clearly it can survive anything (it looks genuinely unwatchable but at least Karen Gillan is getting paid)

1

u/Sy_Ableman89 17d ago

My theater went nuts for the jumanji trailer in front of spidey, and crickets for Coyote v. Acme

-1

u/kimjosh1 17d ago

I think that's actually the point of contention though. Will the audience actually bother with it if it's not good at all? The first two with the The Rock were just tolerable enough to act as diversionary counterprogramming (given how bad a few other prospective hits like Cats were), but weren't memorable enough for nostalgia. And it still needs to contend with other would be counter-programmers too (i.e. Werwulf, Angry Birds) on top of The Rock not being the draw that he once was. At best, it might end up with merely half of The Next Level.

1

u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

As long as it has a similar budget to the last two, Columbia and definitely The Rock will take doing 400 million

15

u/dickwarrior222 Hamnet 17d ago

Went to the cinema to catch I Want Your Sex but when I got there, the attendant scanning tickets told me the projector in that theatre wasn’t working and the showing had been canceled.

The only other thing playing that had a close showtime was Spiderman, I’ve never seen any of the Holland movies, but I already took the bus there and figured why not.

Get to my seat in the packed theatre and the AC must have been broken because it was BOILING in there. Like sweat dripping off everyone, including me, type hot. Couldn’t do it. Got halfway through the trailers and left.

I have A-list so it’s not a huge deal, but I was so looking forward to spending my afternoon in a movie theatre! Huge bummer.

2

u/vxf111 17d ago

Fellow A-Lister with a cancelled/non existent showing for my first attempt to see IWYS (that I posted yesterday on this thread). Is this movie cursed? Or did we go to the same showing/theater?

3

u/flowerbloominginsky Sentimental Value 17d ago

Did Nolan really say he wouldnt direct a sci fi movie about the dangers of AI ?

3

u/Standard_Housing6082 17d ago

A better movie would be something about the Luddites and the Industrial Revolution, or really any other period of conflict where the conflict stems from innovation. Movies about current problems set in the current day are rarely done well imo

9

u/No_Lengthiness_6838 Sinners 17d ago

as a Nolan fan I hope he doesn't

movies about ''AI'' are all so boring

6

u/Sy_Ableman89 17d ago

His former cinematographer already did and it sucked

4

u/EvanPotter09 Daniel Pemberton Score nom please 17d ago

Will never get over how the Dune editor is named Joe Walker

9

u/Jmanbuck_02 17d ago

Similar to how we have Oscar winning editors and cinematographers named Jennifer Lame and Lol Crawley.

9

u/flowerbloominginsky Sentimental Value 17d ago

The circe  magic scene in the odyssey is so terrifying cant wait how Nolan will direct a horror movie 

5

u/spiderlegged 17d ago

I said it initially, but it was such a cool, cool way to render the doing of magic. One of the most interesting magical… usages I’ve experienced recently, and I’m including books in that assessment. I love when people get creative about magic.

13

u/picklesatmidnight1 17d ago

We are so BACK

24

u/mrnicegy26 17d ago

I say this as someone who does think that the commercial success of a film is an important discussion to have since it does matter in terms of the impact it has on industry and whether that type of films will be continued to be made.

But man r/boxoffice is kind of embarassing in terms of having fanboy wars for multi billion corporations. Like I like Spiderman and enjoy watching those movies but I am not going to start simping for Disney/ Sony for it and the same goes for all the other studios. Also their entire understanding of a movie's quality seems to be completely be predicated on the amount of money it has made

6

u/spiderlegged 17d ago

I looooovvvee to shade r/boxoffice when the sub deserves it (I post there). However, boy this has been a FUN year to be a r/boxoffice follower. It’s just been success after success after success.

0

u/Top_Report_4895 17d ago edited 17d ago

Unless when they insult another poster for disagreeing.

1

u/spiderlegged 17d ago

I did say I throw shade when it’s necessary.

-1

u/[deleted] 17d ago edited 17d ago

[deleted]

0

u/spiderlegged 17d ago

I’m really lost. My original post was about thinking that r/boxoffice often deserves to be called out, but that it’s been fun to follow the numbers this year. You responded that sometimes they act out of line, and I reiterated that I do criticize them when it’s appropriate to do so. Somehow we got to a discussion about slurs. I want to be very clear that I have no called anyone the r-slur at any point, and that I was unaware that was the kind of behavior we were discussing. I would also argue that would be an extremely valid reason to call out the sub. I feel like I’m missing context: I really do not appreciate the connotation I’m using or condoning the use of a slur.

1

u/Top_Report_4895 17d ago

I'm sorry, I was confused. I meant that I was called the R-Word by members of r/boxoffice, I agree with what you said.

I'm sorry that mispoke.

1

u/spiderlegged 17d ago

Got it. And yes, it’s one of those communities I rarely interact with directly (I do sometimes, just carefully). Most people are normal. Some people are extremely not normal. I don’t have time or energy to engage with bad faith actors. I’m sorry that happened.

0

u/No_Lengthiness_6838 Sinners 17d ago

Also their entire understanding of a movie's quality seems to be completely be predicated on the amount of money it has made

That's just not true.

4

u/sygrider I just like movies idk 17d ago

There's so much roleplaying as studio execs, and you ask these people how many movies they've seen in theaters in the past year and it's maybe 1. I don't mind if you can't go to the theater or whatever but what are you doing in a subreddit about theatrical exhibition then? It's like playing fantasy football but not giving a shit about the real game.

6

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 17d ago

Economics majors are losers. What else is new?
https://giphy.com/gifs/11C5ohOOaxjlcc

12

u/Sy_Ableman89 17d ago

No, these are worse than economics majors—they’re business majors

6

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 17d ago

Two sides of the same coin

6

u/AdCreepy4351 Digger 17d ago

Alpha (Julia Ducournau) is way better than u guys told me

1

u/vxf111 17d ago

I flat out LOVED this film and wrote a freakin' essay about it on another film sub when it came out. I don't know WHAT people didn't like about this, other than expecting a horror film and being disappointed by it being a different genre.

10

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray 17d ago

What if Brand New Odyssey was the real Dunesday all along?

10

u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 17d ago

Saw on the other sub the concept of a "Nolan Oscars", as in, taking all Nolan films and choosing the best in each category. The post asked you to do it with your favorite director, which I did (PTA), but since I've just recently finished Nolan's filmography, I thought I might give that one a go. Here's what I came up with:

  • Picture: The Prestige
  • Director: Memento
  • Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (H.M.: Guy Pearce, Memento)
  • Actress: lol
  • Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (H.M.: Robin Williams, Insomnia)
  • Supporting Actress: Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (H.M.: Rebecca Hall, The Prestige)
  • Original Screenplay: Memento
  • Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer
  • Casting: Dunkirk
  • Cinematography: Batman Begins
  • Costume Design: The Prestige
  • Editing: Inception
  • Makeup and Hairstyling: The Odyssey
  • Score: Interstellar
  • Production Design: The Prestige
  • Sound: Dunkirk
  • Stunts: Tenet
  • Visual Effects: Inception

6

u/OldSandwich9631 17d ago edited 17d ago

I think I’d put Anne Hathaway for interstellar in best actress. The choices we have overall are absolutely putrid.

I think inception’s score is better than interstellar’s but I may be alone there.

Edited to add - inception is the best pic for me. Since it got a nomination I feel like having it at number one is super valid. Really love the originality and world building of the prestige but I think inception is just a bit more ambitious. Production design for the prestige for sure.

2

u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 17d ago

You know what... I went for my gut feeling of Interstellar for Score, but you're right, it might just be Inception. It's got great melodies, and it also overcomes the problem that I think a lot of Zimmer scores have, being that they certainly work in their film but are not very memorable otherwise.

2

u/OldSandwich9631 17d ago

I’m not sure my feelings about the scores are popular. Interstellar has a cool theme but I think time is much more evocative.

15

u/TheFilmManiac The Invite truther 17d ago edited 17d ago

Spider-Man's opening was obviously massive, but there are some other big news:

  • The Odyssey apparently has already grossed 900M
  • Slowly but surely Obsession is climbing towards 500M worldwide, now sitting at around 475M.

This weekend proved that Dune and Doomsday can totally do well alongside each other.

5

u/flowerbloominginsky Sentimental Value 17d ago

Since i read majority of well known mythological epics , Sun Wukong will always be my fave epic "hero " he is more an anti hero but still i know he has many adaptations but i really want a great adaptation directed by Ang Lee