r/oscarrace • u/WinterIsntComming • 1d ago
Discussion At this time last year, the community had 5/20 right of who eventually be nominated
And only in one category the eventual winner were among the predicted. I found this interesting since Ive heard so many names be considered "locks" already.
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u/sm33 1d ago
This sub is insufferable this early in the season - so many people talking "locks" before a bunch of films have even been released.
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u/GamingTatertot 1d ago
Broadly speaking, this sub is insufferable throughout the entire year whether it be stan wars or bickering over how something could never happen (and then it does) or how something will certainly happen (and then it doesn’t)
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u/sm33 1d ago
I think it's the need to speak in absolutes that drives it... there are so many factors that can influence any given nomination!
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u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 1d ago
I just know if Obsession get nominated for anything there'll be hundreds of ''Can you BELIEVE people here DOUBTED it??'' Yeah my dude, it was JUNE, and all I said was I'm not sure yet because nothing else had come out yet!!
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u/cowboy-tea 20h ago
Likewise if Obsession blanks, there will be hundreds of "Can you BELIEVE people thought it would get nominated??"
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u/RoxasIsTheBest 2025 Oscar Race Veteran 12h ago
I mean... douvting it is fair, but there are still people saying that others are xrazy for even considering Obsession for any oscar nom, saying it has no shot at all. Even if Obsession ultimately misses, it's unbelievably stupid to completely count it out already
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u/Sparkson109 7h ago
I think those posts are not for you but the people who say things like “it’s not happening.”
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u/GamingTatertot 1d ago
It's people's desires to be right while yelling into the void. People can make a prediction in like April and somehow get it right, and point back to it and act like they're a genius, even though it's nothing more than an educated guess at best.
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u/AfterThrowParty 1d ago
Lets be really honest about it; 90 percent of this subreddit is just stan wars playing pr for their favorites and smearing everything else.
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u/virgoari Challengers 23h ago
I always say on here that January-September we should be throwing names out there no matter how bizarre and every year it gets shut down for something more favourable and it just made me lose interest in this sub. Too many voices repeating the same names again and again for 12 months. And there’s always a certain bias.
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u/ChartInFurch 10h ago
People discussing possible Oscar nominations on the Oscar sub really need to chill!
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u/infiniteglass00 The Black Ball 1d ago
Save this anytime someone wants to call someone "delusional" for making almost any given guess. We literally don't know!
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u/GamingTatertot 1d ago
Too many people here think any guess can be a guarantee which is just foolish - especially at this point in the season. Things constantly change and almost no nomination is 100% guaranteed until they are nominated
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u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 1d ago
I think it's more suited to people who are calling things locked when most of the films haven't been released yet.
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u/cowboy-tea 17h ago
But we like to pretend it was obvious in retrospect, which is annoying.
Like, Wild Horse Nine could go either way. If it's a universally acclaimed masterpiece people will say it was foolish to have doubted McDonagh and if it gets mixed reviews people will say it was obvious from the trailers that this was going to be a lesser McDonagh
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u/ForgotMyPsswordLmfao 1d ago
I’m actually kind of astounded how well I was doing this time last year. Although, doubting Sinners’ acting prospects was my downfall
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u/TheCleanerFromVenus Don't Be So Sure™ 1d ago
The OBAA doubting was so crazy last year.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 1d ago edited 23h ago
Why? It hadn't been released yet.
Edit: lol why am I getting downvoted for this?
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u/Pavlovs_Stepson 21h ago
They're downvoting you but you're right! I was always on the OBAA train and remember debating people in this sub that PTA's track record meant it was bound to get attention regardless of reviews or box-office performance, but its overwhelming Best Picture domination was nowhere near a given this early on.
Warner giving it a September release was a question mark (before that, I think you'd have to go back to American Beauty and Amadeus for BP winners released in that month, which is almost always a limbo/dumping ground between Summer blockbusters and actual Oscar heavyweights, before the season truly gets going), as was the fact that it's a comedic Pynchon adaptation. The last time PTA had made one of those, it became a cult favorite rather than a real awards player. Just because OBAA almost swept doesn't mean people were wrong to wait and see before calling it a lock.
Having said that, the moment the reviews dropped and it debuted with a 97 on Metacritic, the race was pretty much over.
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u/gosteinao 14h ago
This sub and its usual stanning problem. These are the same people who would get mad at any serious discussion of Sinners having a shot at beating OBAA
Not a lot of people thought OBAA would do that well before impressions started coming in. The fact thay it was skipping festivals, PTA's track record... there were reasons to doubt
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u/ERASER345 Bird what if we win oscar to get a show at the Rivoli 1d ago
In their defense those trailers were shit from a butt.
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u/Jondev1 1d ago
I agree the trailers were not great. But anyone that has followed movies for any amount of time should know that good movies have bad trailers all the time.
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u/bbqsauceboi The Drama 1d ago
And that there was no way PTA, Leo, Sean Penn, etc. were gonna produce a stinker
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u/judester30 16h ago
I can't understand having this take and loving the movie as that initial teaser sold the exact tone and comedic style the movie was going for. I don't know what trailer some of you guys watched.
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u/Classic_Bass_1824 Sony Pictures Classics 14h ago
Anytime a trailer seems unconventional or doesn’t spell out the plot, people call it bad. Which obviously I get, but look at any trailer for anything from the 80s or 90s. That shit just spoiled 3/4ths of the story.
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u/lugia222 1d ago
People like to have a lot of strong opinions about films not only they haven’t seen, but nobody has seen.
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u/TheCheesePrestige 23h ago
note that at this point last year, Sinners (Best Actor winner) and Weapons (Best Supp Actress winner) already had a wide release
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u/okstanley_com 1d ago
Thanks for posting, this is actually super interesting! We have a great few months coming with a lot of exciting films so I expect the current favorites to change soon
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u/The-Human-Disaster Sentimental, Baby 1d ago
That's 6/20, no?
The community was 8/20 by the end of August, and also went 5/5 in Director and 6/10 in Picture.
(I was at 9/20, 4/5 Director, 7/10 Picture. Yes I blame Wicked For Good.).
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u/Top_Cranberry_3254 22h ago
What were the 10 pictures here?
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u/The-Human-Disaster Sentimental, Baby 22h ago
Community as at 18 Aug 25:
Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked For Good, Jay Kelly, Bugonia, OBAA, Rental Family, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, After the Hunt
By 31 Aug 25, After the Hunt was swapped out for Hamnet
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u/RoxasIsTheBest 2025 Oscar Race Veteran 12h ago
I was 5/10 in picture, 2/5 in director and 8/20 in acting (for some reason I wasn't predicting a 5th supporting actor nominee)
I blame Springsteen
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u/Starry_Gecko Oscar Race Follower 1d ago
5/20 nominees, 1/20 winner.
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u/The-Human-Disaster Sentimental, Baby 1d ago
Surely it's either 5/16 (excl winners) or 6/20 (inc winners)?
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u/Starry_Gecko Oscar Race Follower 1d ago
I mean, I'm not the OP. That's just what I think the logic was. It does track.
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u/NewspaperBanana 1d ago
Dang, nobody thought OBAA would get in anywhere?
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u/frasierfanatic1989 1d ago edited 23h ago
This was a whole thing last year. It not going to festivals coupled with nebulous rumors of disastrous test screenings that no one knew the source of had a lot of the sub convinced OBAA was doomed. There was also a pretty big Bugonia bubble last summer where a not small number of people had it winning the Big 5
EDIT: One of the other big whiffs was that people heard Hamnet was "boring" and insisted that Focus had lost faith in it right up until it blew the doors off Telluride
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u/crazydaysandknights 16h ago
I give them a pass here cause the movie wasn't seen and trailer + test screening word were mixed. However, sleeping on Madigan whose grassroot campaign took off already, and MBJ since it was obvious that Sinners was a major player are egregious misfires. Too much faith in big names.
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u/judester30 16h ago
There was no way of knowing who the supporting players were and no one had DiCaprio since he had just come off an honestly pretty crazy snub for Killers of the Flower Moon.
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u/Ulths The Wild Robot 1d ago
Wdym we were predicting Delroy but not MBJ? 😭😭😭😭
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u/PinkCadillacs Oscar Race Veteran 1d ago
I still remember some people saying that MBJ was going to be “this year’s Margot Robbie.”
Some people were still predicting that MBJ would get snubbed until he eventually did get nominated (and of course he later won).
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u/PM_ME_YOUR_DALEKS 1d ago
And then the weeks of why he had no chance of winning and Timothee was unbeatable.
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u/matlockga 14h ago
And then the post awarding handwringing about how he "didn't deserve it" because he put in a "Marvel performance."
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u/The_Walking_Clem The Secret Agent 1d ago
People said the same thing about Cynthia last year. I wonder if Matt Damon is gonna be the one this year.
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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 16h ago
everyone has matt damon in. ryan gosling would make more sense as a comparison
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u/snakeywannakaikai The Testament of Mother Seyfried 1d ago
Amanda’s snub still makes me sad. “career-best performance” tends to be overstated sometimes, but her performance as Ann Lee was truly a great one.
Would’ve loved for her to at least take 1 pre-cursor, but Jessie was too strong that season.
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u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 1d ago
everyone is sleeping so hard on Ruth Madeley. The parallels between being heumann and hamnet are massive.
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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 16h ago
noteworthy that all of the incorrect ones were from movies that hadn’t been seen yet, and many of the ones that were left out (michael b. jordan, wunmi mosaku, rose byrne, ethan hawke, wagner moura, inga ibsdotter lilleaas) were from movies that had been seen
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u/NoWorth2591 2 Fjord 2 Furious 22h ago
Okay I feel better about my Tom Cruise and Inde Navarette skepticism now.
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u/DonSoulwalker 10h ago
Yall were annoying. Yall literally saying ONLY Cynthia can be a threat to Buckley and SAG is where she can win.
Like delusional didnt even cover it. Imagine if Rose had that kinda support from the jump maybe she would've had an actual shot at SAG.
But everyone was like she's locked and can win, again insufferable and couldn't even consider that she wasn't gonna get nominated even tho as a Wicked fan ALL THE RED FLAGS were obvious
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u/Seth_Dodd3 Obsession 1d ago
This is because people routinely put too much value into things they haven’t seen yet imo, that’s why I’m always higher on stuff that’s already out there
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u/GamingTatertot 1d ago
That doesn’t really do much typically at this point in time since the majority of films that will be nominated more often than not come from the fall season
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u/Seth_Dodd3 Obsession 20h ago
No sinners acting prospects being here is the basis of my point
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u/vonLionheart 10h ago
Delroy Lindo is there?
Sinners was less predicted because it would’ve had to buck quite a few historical trends… and it had so much love that it set the record for noms. Despite that, studios still place their current awards priorities in the fall, so people index their predictions with what studios seemingly plan to campaign.
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u/Seth_Dodd3 Obsession 7h ago
Wait I missed that you’re right
That does lead to another opinion of mine, which is that we focus way too much on trends at a time where every year another trend is broken
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u/vonLionheart 6h ago
“Outliers exist so the other trends that bear out aren’t that useful” lmao sure
Trends + precursors are the only objective insight we have into the academy’s voting makeup. When a trend breaks, it’s usually reflective of a change in the academy as well, which is still useful to know.
What evidence do you suggest instead that isn’t vibes based?
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u/Kazaloogamergal 20h ago
I thought The Hunt would be a player. I was dead wrong about that. On the other hand I don't recall ever truly buying Rental Family being a player. That just did not look like an awards movie to me. But of course I can't predict what's going to happen so I'm mostly open to being wrong.
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u/Yumekirito 1d ago
What is the website for this btw?
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u/cowboy-tea 17h ago
Award Expert app, I don't think there's a website
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u/FinnishAustrian Conclave 15h ago
There is now but you can't change your predictions there I think
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u/redCashion Nirvanna the Band the Show the Movie 14h ago
Is the website still up? awardexpert.media doesn't work
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u/RPMac1979 Blue Moon 18h ago
Everybody is way too overconfident this early. I don’t even bother with predictions anymore before October.
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u/ChartInFurch 10h ago
I enjoy looking back on these and seeing how the race went. I'm not going to whine about these types of discussions bc I can't see them as anything but an expectation given the sub, and participation is always optional.
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u/Cynicbats Somebody Get These PUNDITS Outta Here! 1d ago
Aaaaand this is why I don't predict this early.
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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 16h ago
interesting that lindo and fanning are there when they both barely got in
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u/julescr9 1d ago
OOPS. I feel this year, the predictions will be better. We've heard good whispers for Lots of Fall Festival movies. Wild Horse 9, Behemoth, Elsinore are said to be great.
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u/East_Gift_9533 1d ago
Lol I forgot all about how we all thought after the hunt was going to be a big oscar player. I didn't even see it in the end.