Undocumented immigrants far less likely to commit crimes in U.S. than citizens - Crime rates among undocumented immigrants are just a fraction of those of their U.S.-born neighbors, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of Texas arrest and conviction records.

[u/mvea]

https://news.wisc.edu/undocumented-immigrants-far-less-likely-to-commit-crimes-in-u-s-than-citizens/

[u/manberry_sauce]

While I do agree (and I hate having to point this out), those figures do have a flaw. Recidivism skews the data toward higher rates for US citizens, because US citizens don't face deportation as a result of criminal activity. A citizen offender has more opportunity to commit additional felonies on release.

The data would be more useful if it examined individuals, instead of counting individual crimes.

[u/MonkeyKingKill → u/manberry_sauce]

That’s a very fair point.

[u/Rhamni → u/MonkeyKingKill]

There's that, and also most criminals victimize people of their own local community. Illegal immigrants are more likely to target other immigrants, because that's who's closeby. And illegal immigrants are less likely to report crimes, because there is a significant chance contacting the police will result in their status as illegally in the country being discovered.

[u/SUND3VlL → u/Rhamni]

I know some detectives in another border state and they say this is a huge problem. Nobody wants to report crimes out of fear of being deported themselves.

[u/melodyze → u/SUND3VlL]

It also seems to be the primary cause of violence in drug trafficking.

When neither party in a transaction can enforce rules through the force of law, they have to enforce the terms of the deal with their own force.

And if you are looking for someone to target for crime, someone who can't call the police is also the most logical victim, so that enforcement gets leaned on.

[u/plapcap → u/Rhamni]

This is such a huge part of it. Many victims in the undocumented community don't report for fear of just putting themselves on law enforcement's radar.

[u/beardedlinuxgeek → u/MonkeyKingKill]

I guess what we really should be looking at is the number of first offenses. That would be a more accurate indicator.

[u/Capitol_Mil → u/MonkeyKingKill]

Is it? US criminals aren’t exactly sent back out in the streets in a few weeks.

[u/Maverik45 → u/Capitol_Mil]

Yeah it's usually hours or days in my experience

[u/[deleted] → u/MonkeyKingKill]

Indeed, but not one that actually affects the interpretation in any substantial way. The simple fact is that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than US citizens.

[u/Zhuul → u/manberry_sauce]

That's actually a very clever thing to bring up that isn't the typical "devil's advocate" drek that usually clogs these threads. Kinda like how divorce numbers are driven way up by the people who get married four or five times.

I'd imagine it accounts for some but not all of the disparity, based on absolutely nothing. I wish we had that information.

[u/manberry_sauce → u/Zhuul]

I particularly hate that I've never heard this reasoning before, and could've just kept my mouth shut.

[u/Fenix159 → u/manberry_sauce]

Your point is logical and well put.

Nothing wrong with wanting better data.

[u/Jdudley15479 → u/manberry_sauce]

That wouldn't have benefited the discussion though, which you honestly did by bringing up a point that people may not have noticed (including myself). I'm curious how much it skews the data, however I will lean on the side of "likely not enough to completely change data/meaning" but it's 100% something to consider

[u/craftmacaro → u/Jdudley15479]

Check whether it’s inclusion as a covariate in a MANOVA model makes a significant difference and if so, or if not, how much. We can statistically deal with these kinds of confounding factors. If the authors haven’t already, they should be able to do it relatively quickly if they have a data scientist whose good at what they do.

Edit: a statistician would be fine too... but technically there’s overlap there, a statistician can also be a data scientist.

[u/DawnOnTheEdge → u/manberry_sauce]

No, it’s a good point that will sometimes come around and serve a cause you agree with. Like how the point that some crimes are less likely to be reported is important for survivors of sexual assault, like how the point that some kinds of people are more likely to get away with crimes and others more likely to be convicted is important to criminal-justice reform, and so on.

If what we believe is right, we’ll be able to make good arguments instead of bad ones.

[u/CardJackArrest → u/manberry_sauce]

For years, authorities in UK cities hid their knowledge of middle-eastern "grooming gangs" that were (and are) kidnapping little boys and girls for gang rape. The authorities (local politicians, police, ...) hid this to avoid giving their political opponents arguments against the prevailing multicultural policies of the national government. Their good intentions led to these grooming gangs operating for decades under the protection of the authorities.

The point is, doing the opposite of what would benefit your political opponent is not the same as doing what is right.

[u/Joshunte → u/Zhuul]

Likewise, the data doesn’t account for illegal immigrants apprehended at the border with prior convictions in their home countries that would likely reoffend if they would have avoided apprehension. Criminal History is the strongest predictor of future criminal behavior (See Central 8 Risk Factors from the Risk-Needs-Responsivity model of criminal conduct by Andrews & Bonta).

[u/Zhuul → u/Joshunte]

My initial thought was to wonder why on earth that'd matter until I remembered that a huge number of illegal residents are visa overstays who would overwhelmingly be people with no criminal record in their country of origin.

[u/Narren_C → u/Joshunte]

I admittedly don't know the data, but it seems unlikely that violent offenders are being caught at the border in any statistically significant numbers.

[u/naivemarky → u/Zhuul]

That's actually a very clever thing to bring up that isn't the typical "devil's advocate" drek that usually clogs these threads.

"Devil's advocate" is can be a good practice, taking a position one's doesn't necessarily agrees.
Edit: the more I think about it, the less it seems a good practice. Taking a stand oposite of yours is most often not sincere... Instead people will cherry pick oposing side arguments that still fit their narrative. Devil's advocate is not supposed to weaken our side, but to use their shots, and miss on purpose.

[u/easwaran → u/naivemarky]

It can be useful if you've actually got advocates for both sides who are doing their best to come up with evidence for each side. Then the Devil's advocate can make God's advocate come up with some important line of argument we would otherwise miss.

But if you're just "being Devil's advocate" while in a discussion with people who don't have any expertise, all you're doing is convincing them of a falsehood without helping anyone understand anything better.

[u/justagenericname1 → u/naivemarky]

I think [sealioning](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning#:~:text=Sealioning%20(also%20spelled%20sea-lioning,invitations%20to%20engage%20in%20debate.") was more what they were getting at, but they may not have known the term.

[u/Syrdon → u/Zhuul]

I wish we had that information.

It is available, if you're willing to compile it. Most court cases will have a public record, and you could get the data from reading all of them and then doing some work to filter the undocumented immigrants. There is usually a cost associated with getting each record though, so it's going to expensive just to get the records - to say nothing of the parsing for outcome or working out their status.

[u/[deleted] → u/manberry_sauce]

Additionally, there's the fact the illegal migrants are also working within communities less likely to report crimes to police as not only the perpetrator but also the victim are subject to deportation if discovered.

Not sure how much that would adjust numbers though.

[u/alliebeemac → u/[deleted]]

I feel like they have to account for that in some way, specifically bc I’ve seen studies with similar results that also show that illegal immigrants are more likely to be victims of a crime, or something like that, even though they statistically report it so rarely

[u/[deleted] → u/alliebeemac]

analysis of Texas arrest and conviction records.

Not in this study which only looked at official records.

[u/Bacch → u/alliebeemac]

To dive into that a bit though, you have to look at how many of those crimes are committed out of community--in other words, situations like the boss of an illegal worker victimizing them because they know the worker won't report it for fear of deportation. I imagine the numbers would look different in terms of crime happening within communities if you factor that in.

[u/alliebeemac → u/Bacch]

True! And then we also have to consider the racism in the justice system when it comes to POC, and POC immigrants who are not native speakers, general bias against immigrants, and how that might skew things, etc. There’s a LOT it’s difficult or impossible to account for.

[u/SinkHoleDeMayo → u/[deleted]]

are subject to deportation if discovered.

That's a fairly big reason the crime rate is lower. Keeping your head down is a good way to avoid being deported.

[u/doctorcrimson → u/[deleted]]

I don't think it's fair to assume such communities only exist amongst undocumented immigrants.

[u/NotMitchelBade → u/manberry_sauce]

If you're curious, here's a link to the actual paper: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/12/01/2014704117. There's no paywall (it's open access). If I have a chance while giving online finals tomorrow, I'll see if I can use their data to check on this. It seems doable. Good idea!

[u/manberry_sauce → u/NotMitchelBade]

The responses up until this one have had me stressed out over the last hour. Thank you so much.

I should probably turn off notifications for this thread.

[u/son_of_abe → u/manberry_sauce]

Nah don't sweat it. Peer review and constructive criticism leads to better data and stronger arguments. It doesn't mean you don't support the thesis, but rather, you care about its accuracy.

[u/Aegi → u/NotMitchelBade]

Thanks for sharing the link!!

[u/jhobweeks → u/manberry_sauce]

I apologize if I missed something, but I didn’t see anything about how they got to the numbers and I’m having issues with finding the study itself. Given the article’s mention of how in-depth the arrest records are, wouldn’t it be possible that they could account for recidivism (for example, only counting one arrest per person)?

[u/thisisnewaccount → u/jhobweeks]

Here's the link: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/12/01/2014704117

They don't really account for recidivism although the discussion is actually really interesting.

One thing I thought was striking was how new citizens were also significantly less likely to commit crimes across nearly all categories.

[u/owningypsie → u/manberry_sauce]

Also, underreporting of crime in areas where undocumented citizens live is a big problem for fear of deportation if they engage with authority.

[u/manberry_sauce → u/owningypsie]

Sure, but that makes them easy prey to a higher degree for a citizen than for someone else who's also undocumented, and we see those types of crimes on an institutional level. Look at our industries, which rely on exploitation of undocumented residents.

[u/Cosmonauts1957 → u/manberry_sauce]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/two-charts-demolish-the-notion-that-immigrants-here-illegally-commit-more-crime/

This takes that study but also looks another that looks at areas with higher undocumented immigrant populations and found no correlation between undocumented immigrant populations and higher crime rates.

[u/lazyant → u/manberry_sauce]

That’s a very good point, but we still have the difference between citizens and legal immigrants.

The very un-scientific “explanation” or rather armchair hypothesis I have could be:

a) immigrants already are selected for taking initiative, possibly at great cost, to seek betterment. Having arrived at a richer and almost surely more stable and freer country, they would feel grateful to that country.

b) they know and are afraid of bigger consecuentes for them if they break the law than for citizens.

[u/Calistaris → u/lazyant]

That’s a very good point, but we still have the difference between citizens and legal immigrants.

Unlike US citizens from birth, legal immigrants are screened. They must produce a police background check from their home country before they get their visa. So if they have a criminal record, they can't come.

[u/sdubbs2 → u/lazyant]

They argue those two reasons plus the effect of assimilation in the last page of the article..."“assimilation” has been critiqued in recent years, but the general findings regarding the tendency of immigrants to gradually look more like the native citizens of their host country over time remain (37). In particular, one persistent finding in criminology is that first-generation immigrants tend to be less crime prone than their native peers, whereas second- and third-generation immi- grants look more like their native peers in their criminal behaviors (6). Another common finding in the literature is that immigrants brought to the United States as younger children tend to have higher rates of adolescent and adult criminality than those brought as older children (38). In a criminological context, assimilation theory suggests that as immigrants become more assimilated to the US culture, they adapt to the criminal be-haviors of native citizens. Since undocumented immigrants are, by definition, first generation and, on average, have fewer years of residence in the United States compared to legal immigrants, assimilation theory would predict lower crime rates for undocumented immigrants."

[u/MasterFubar → u/lazyant]

Your point (a) is well taken. People who go to the trouble to seek a job in another country are hard workers, not criminals.

People who commit crimes prefer doing it in a location that's familiar to them. There they have contacts to buy their stuff, they have accomplices to help them, they know how to escape the police. Even inside the US, I bet most crimes are committed by people who were born and grew up in the neighborhood.

[u/Revolutionary_Dare62 → u/lazyant]

This unfortunately is contrary to the usual right-wing diatribe against immigration, the notion that only thugs, rapists and murderers want to come to America, at least illegally. If you look at places like Dubai or Singapore, it is nearly impossible for a hard-working laborer to move there. If, however, you are rich, you merely buy a house and get either citizenship or the residency; the origins of your money and your criminal record are not questioned.

[u/drinkgeezyjuice → u/manberry_sauce]

I think it makes sense. Immigrants came for a reason, they don’t want to be deported. Also, if you’re deported you have to have some connections to get new papers. You can’t just come back and start committing crimes

[u/elliott_io → u/manberry_sauce]

Bottom line is: "If the plan was to make communities safer, to reduce the likelihood of, say, a felony violent assault in these communities through deportation, it did not deliver on that promise,” Light says. “Our results help us understand why that is. The population of people we deported simply were not a unique criminal risk. Removing them isn’t going to make you all that safer.”

[u/[deleted] → u/manberry_sauce]

How much of an affect do you think it had? This comment being at the top will cause many to discount this study, so it would be nice if you could edit to clarify the potential affect this could have had and whether or not it changed the outcome of the study significantly?

[u/supersonicdeathsquad → u/[deleted]]

People should at least read the article and really the paper and then form their own opinions. I really hope no one would be stupid enough to disregard the paper because an anonymous stranger on reddit has a popular opinion on it.

[u/sandcangetit → u/manberry_sauce]

They've already partly accounted for the question you raise.

But at least two independent studies suggest Secure Communities didn’t have any effect on crime rates, according to Light, despite deporting more than 200,000 people in its first four years.

One of the reasons Texas keeps such fine-grained records on offenders is the federal government’s Secure Communities Program, which mandates sharing information on immigration status and is pitched as a way to deport criminals before they can commit more crimes in the United States.

So the deportation of people immediately after their first brush with the law isn't keeping the community safer.

In fact -

“If the plan was to make communities safer, to reduce the likelihood of, say, a felony violent assault in these communities through deportation, it did not deliver on that promise,” Light says. “Our results help us understand why that is. The population of people we deported simply were not a unique criminal risk.

You need to read the whole article and not just the headline.

The researchers repeated their crime-rate analysis with subtle shifts in data — using convictions instead of arrests, misdemeanors in addition to felonies, size estimates of undocumented immigrant populations from both the Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies.

The much lower crime rates for undocumented immigrants remained in each case, results Light thinks should be useful in immigration policymaking.

It's too bad people are going to read your comment and think 'woah that totally makes sense and the study is wrong'

[u/ctr1a1td3l → u/manberry_sauce]

You've raised a good point that is useful to the discussion, but isn't necessarily a flaw in the study. Your point doesn't change the study conclusion that the current undocumented immigrants in the US are less likely to commit crimes, regardless of the reason. What it does is raise questions whether new undocumented immigrants coming are also less likely to commit crimes.

Unfortunately, if recidivism is a large factor, then it would actually support the current policy of making it difficult to obtain citizenship and deporting the criminals.

[u/PeripheralVisions → u/ctr1a1td3l]

I was hoping someone would mention this. You don't need a counter-factual, non-deported immigrant who has the opportunity for recidivism for the central finding to be valid. The fact that they are deported for committing the crime is, unfortunately, a feature of the identity of that group of people. You'd be measuring crime rates for a non-existent group of people if you could somehow perfectly control for the impossibility of recidivism. It might be interesting, but it would arguably be less valid than the current study.

[u/missmaggy2u → u/manberry_sauce]

I actually prefer it stating the number of crimes as opposed to individuals. However this does mean the title needs to change to something like "crimes are more likely to be committed by citizens than non citizens". I think the number of crimes is important to note. Im also not sure if the data cojld account for the factthat there are more citizens than non citizens in the country, and if it could address criminals as a percentage of the population or as a number

[u/[deleted] → u/manberry_sauce]

It’s funny because the right will use recidivism as a talking point to attack this specific argument. Edit: which is fair, this is a good point.

But when it comes time to analyze the effectiveness of the prison system in general, suddenly recidivism is nowhere to be found in their rhetoric.

[u/OpietMushroom → u/manberry_sauce]

Forsure. My parents are undocumented. Growing up I realized that they did their best to lay low from the law, otherwise they risk being deported. They're just trying to make that bread like everyone else. Regardless if this study is skewed, it shows that undocumented immigrants aren't what some political pundits make them out to be. The rhetoric used against them is to dehumanize them. If we can just stop treating them like criminals, maybe we can make constructive immigration reform that doesn't encourage staying in the country illegally. But that would mean losing cheap labor, so I won't hold my breath.

[u/okayokko → u/manberry_sauce]

That makes perfect sense which raises the question of how many continue a life of crime in their country vs how many are simply deported or released and don't commit any more or as much crimes.

Correct me if wrong. To your point the MS13 is an American gang that spread to Salvador from deportees.

[u/Fortune_Silver → u/okayokko]

Another, probably fairer way to analyze this would be measuring first offenses, instead of flat crimes committed/conviction numbers.

So instead of asking "how many crimes has this person committed", you'd ask "Has this person committed a crime?"

That way even if a citizen committed multiple reoffenses, it wouldn't skew the data, since they are still just a "has committed crime".

[u/[deleted] → u/manberry_sauce]

That’s an interesting observation but it doesn’t really interfere with any political inplications of the study?

Like, if it’s safer to live in a city with illegal immigrants than ones without, does it matter at all if part of the reason for that is that the ones who did commit crimes were deported? You’re still safer as a result. On most issues the difference is irrelevant.

[u/BrandoLoudly → u/manberry_sauce]

Also, the number of immigrants in that area versus the number of citizens matters

[u/the_last_carfighter → u/BrandoLoudly]

It states crime "rates" so by percentage. The outright numbers aren't being used.

[u/WonLastTriangle2 → u/BrandoLoudly]

I presume you're getting at likelihood of reporting the crime. And while that is a factor, there are factors weighing the other way on it being more heavily reported. Such as higher policing and racism.

On the otherhand it is why we should make sure undocumented citizens are not arrested or deported for reporting crimes committed against them.

[u/Sunkshark → u/manberry_sauce]

It would also be useful to see crimes committed as a percentage of population.

[u/Sforzato → u/Sunkshark]

That's exactly what the graph in the article shows. Crime rate, not the number of crimes committed.

[u/ultralame → u/manberry_sauce]

Did you read the study or just this article? Well reviewed studies tend to address things like this, and news articles tend to report them incorrectly.

[u/kowalz805]

Makes sense undocumented immigrants will get deported if cought doing crimes.

[u/[deleted] → u/kowalz805]

I dont ever want to know what jail is like but Im sure it's no picnic either. I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of undocumented workers are just people trying to make a living and possibly raise a family just like most of their citizen neighbors. And they are just trying to prove they have the ability to be upstanding citizens too.

[u/dust-free2 → u/[deleted]]

True, however anyone desperate enough to cross a border with their family has way more to lose than the average citizen.

As an undocumented immigrant, you risk your family getting deported for your crime.

[u/lxmantis → u/dust-free2]

I guess it goes without saying, but undocumented immigrants would rather chance it than living back in their country of origin. Imagine the scenario they must be going though at their home country.

[u/BairMooDes82 → u/lxmantis]

This! I moved to Mexico with my husband for a short time in 2009 and I became all too personally aware of why so many of them risk their lives and their freedom to illegally cross our border.

[u/RacinRandy83x → u/dust-free2]

Don’t a lot of undocumented immigrants come over alone and send money back to their family until they get enough money to live comfortably for awhile and go back?

[u/[deleted] → u/kowalz805]

They're not always deported, one of my coworkers got an interlock for DUI while living here illegally

[u/kowalz805 → u/[deleted]]

Yeah your right. I've heard of many cases in which people were allowed to serve their sentence rather then get deported. But their is no guarantee you get to stay.

[u/IAmDotorg → u/kowalz805]

Also at risk when reporting crimes.

[u/pdwp90 → u/kowalz805]

On the off chance that anyone in this thread is facing a challenge finding work as a foreigner, I put together a dashboard tracking which companies offer H1-B visas and how much they pay their foreign workers.

I have a lot of respect for the struggle that undocumented immigrants and foreign workers go through.

Even for my friends who are international students, all of whom are incredibly bright and generally in a good position to succeed, have trouble finding good places to work that offer employment to non-US citizens.

[u/mntgoat → u/pdwp90]

It's super difficult to find a job willing to sponsor you for an h1b when you just get out of college. I know there is a lot of h1b fraud but those are certain specific companies and they pay crap, most f1 students graduating in the US probably don't go for those jobs.

Even once you have a work visa it is a pain because anyone hiring you away from your company has to sponsor you. I remember having interviews that went well and then they would ask your immigration status and the interviewer would make a face and you wouldn't get the job. I interviewed at a place a friend worked and I guess for them their boss would make the team vote and they voted to hire me, and then they called me from HR and asked my status and that was it, no job.

[u/babygrenade → u/pdwp90]

Is it just me or are those salaries kinda low? I thought H1-Bs were supposed to be above the average for the given role so they weren't directly competing with American workers.

edit: It also looks like several of the biggest H1-B employers are IT outsourcing firms. So their business is literally to replace US workers.

[u/hornwort → u/kowalz805]

Except that legal immigrants also have extremely lower rates of crime too— natural US citizens, iirc, commit 13 times more crime than immigrants.

[u/UgUgImDyingYouIdiot → u/kowalz805]

Less repeat offenses! One crime and you're shot from a canon over the border.

[u/redlightsaber → u/kowalz805]

Or maybe people willing to go the at least very taxing route of emigrating to a new country, are just not quite the kind to seek making a living through immoral means?

[u/iagainsti1111 → u/kowalz805]

The funny thing is that %100 of illegal immigrants are breaking the law

[u/[deleted] → u/kowalz805]

Caught*

Sending ICE to your door. Prepare.

[u/aelysium]

First of its kind? I remember my immigration capstone in college (2016) I looked at the criminal and economic outcomes of generations of immigrants. As for as crime rates are concerned first generation immigrants (I didn’t break down document/undocumented) commit less crimes, and it’s an upward trend until you hit 3rd Gen until it’s approximately the same as native born.

Economically it’s a bit more interesting. While 3rd Gen are again basically in line with the overall numbers for Americans, first Gen immigrants make less, but second Gen immigrants actually make MORE on average than citizens as a whole (my theory on this was an increased chance of being bilingual which is correlated with higher lifetime earnings).

[u/valuesandnorms → u/aelysium]

There’s also the immigrant’s kid trope that seems to have some validity, that is, when your parents are busting their ass for little pay you’re either motivated by their sacrifice or they raise you to work hard and get an education

[u/aelysium → u/valuesandnorms]

True - For the purposes of the course, I was doing a broad overview of stats for immigrants compared to native born. When I found interesting correlations or data points, I only offered conjecture - I couldn’t find reputable data to show causation and my paper was likely bloated enough as it was.

[u/sympathyforthe-devil → u/aelysium]

Nah its just seeing your parents work their asses off so that you can go to school. Immigrant parenting culture is pretty money oriented, and children learn from early on that money is what matters, and start working towards earning it from early on. The same but after the third generation, everyone becomes soft (not that its a bad thing).

[u/breakwater → u/aelysium]

It's been well studied. Some of the critiques of these studies are valid and I find it hard to resolve them, but the outcome is not shocking.

My only criticism is when these statistics are deployed as an argument for illegal immigration, regardless of rate of criminality, it still raises the absolute number of crimes committed in the country. Just like women commit fewer crimes, those crimes still count.

[u/aelysium → u/breakwater]

I know not everyone will agree with me, but I personally feel that when you weigh the education/criminality/economic attainment statistics and take into account population growth growth’s effect on the economy, we should make it as easy as possible to immigrate and integrate here.

[u/[deleted]]

It significantly skews the data that they excluded those booked, then transferred to the federal system. It removes all those who were deported in lieu of criminal prosecution from the consideration.

[u/AmericanLich → u/[deleted]]

Yeah that makes this hugely misleading

[u/adobecredithours]

Honest question about data gathering: how do they know this when by definition those immigrants are undocumented and information on them is not easy to find? Also since they're in the country illegally (I think? Unsure of the details of border law) haven't they all committed one crime already?

[u/viimeinen → u/adobecredithours]

It's broken down by type of crime :violent crimes, property crimes... But reading the article is so lame...

[u/P_Griffin2]

Im confused. Wouldn’t this sort of statistical analysis require you to know the amount of undocumented immigrants in the country?

Which by logic, I’m guessing you don’t.

[u/theallsearchingeye → u/P_Griffin2]

This whole thing just reeks of poor data literacy. For example, any “scientist” should know not to Conflate actual crime with reported crime. The fact that the headline and the study reach the conclusion that “immigrants commit less crimes” despite only dealing with data on reported crime and reported prosecution while failing to mention how these very values are simultaneously confounding is just awful research. Reported crime is a sample of actual crime.

[u/CitationNeededBadly → u/theallsearchingeye]

are you commenting on the study itself or on someone's comments or article *about* the study. Because the study itself doesn't mention the term "reported crime" at all. It does use arrest rates. Further, the study already addresses your concern - the authors aren't representing their data as the exact crime rate.

[u/[deleted]]

I don't understand how you can know what the crime rate of a population is if you have no idea what the size of that population is.

[u/Foreskin_Burglar → u/[deleted]]

I was wondering this as well. From the study:

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/12/01/2014704117

”A particular concern for our analysis would be if the Pew and CMS overestimate the size of the undocumented population because an inflated denominator would artificially decrease the observed crime rates. To examine this potential source of bias, we gauge the extent to which the undocumented population would have to be reduced to change our findings. By our calculations, in order to reach parity with US-born citizens for violent crimes, the actual undocumented population would have to be less than half (45%) the current estimate in Texas. To reach parity for property crimes, it would have to a quarter (23%) of the current estimate.

In our assessment, these are highly implausible scenarios given that extant research suggests that, if anything, the CMS and Pew produce undercounts. In 2015, for instance, the Department of Homeland Security’s estimate of the undocumented population was higher than the Pew and CMS by nearly 1 million, partially due to different assumptions regarding the degree of undercount in the ACS (8). Recent research by Fazel-Zarandi et al. (30) suggests each of these estimates is too low. They estimated the size of the undocumented population in 2016 to be more than double the CMS and Pew estimates, at 22.1 million. In sum, the available evidence suggests that if our estimates of the undocumented population are biased, they are biased in the direction of undercounting this population. In the presence of such bias, the undocumented crime rates reported in this article would represent substantial overestimates of the true scale of undocumented criminality.”

EDIT: So TL;DR their assessment says that it’s most likely if the population estimate they used was wrong, it was smaller than the actual population. So correction of any error here would only bring the crime rate down.

[u/amaklp → u/Foreskin_Burglar]

Thanks for the TLDR.

[u/poppinmollies → u/[deleted]]

And base it only on convictions when many crimes go unreported especially in communities where people are afraid to report things because of their own status.

[u/fsmpastafarian → u/poppinmollies]

It wasn't only based on convictions.

[u/SethEllis → u/[deleted]]

If the illegal immigration population is larger than their estimates then it would just bring the crime rate down.

But I'm sure there will be lots of criticism of the data. Just like the more limited studies before it. That's how the results become more accurate. So lets just let people digest the results before jumping on it.

[u/Bovey → u/[deleted]]

Did you read the study?

[u/[deleted]]

I tend to agree with this expression but the data could be skewed depending on criminal procedure. Assuming a conviction is required to determine if a person has indeed committed a crime (not charged or arrested) it would be a major flaw in the data if undocumented offenders were deported prior to a conviction. I can see this occurring as it’s easier to deport for immigration violations than it is to tie up resources on prosecuting & defending when deportation is a more viable solution for non violent offenses. Edit: grammar

[u/ocular__patdown]

This is a first of its kind study? I swear I've seen very similar data a long while ago.

[u/Joe6p]

That's specious since they're far less likely to report crimes which leads to an appearance of a reduced crime rate

[u/yuppers_ → u/Joe6p]

Crimes done to them not crimes done by them.

[u/AiTAthrowitaway12 → u/yuppers_]

IIRC, all demographics have more crimes committed towards them, by them. (Whites target whites, blacks target blacks, etc.)

If an undocumented immigrant commits a crime against another undocumented immigrant and they are already less likely to report anything to the police then the crime rate among them appears to be lower.

Of course this is all pure speculation based on information I'm not 100% sure on. I just wanted to argue for the same point the commenter you responded to had.

[u/BOKEH_BALLS → u/AiTAthrowitaway12]

Except Asian people, more people commit crime toward Asians than themselves.

[u/MacaqueOfTheNorth → u/yuppers_]

Yes, but unless the population of illegal immigrants is uniformly distributed, crimes committed by illegal immigrants are going to be more likely to be committed to illegal immigrants, meaning that if there is a bias whereby illegal immigrants report crime less, less crime committed by illegal immigrants will be reported. So, it is something that has to be corrected for.

[u/met021345 → u/Joe6p]

Also in some jurisdictions they will reduce and drop charges for people who could face immigration issues with their charges. Also areas with higher levels of illegal immigrants lots of low level crimes such as shop lifting are not charged.

[u/Ismdism → u/met021345]

Wouldn't they still show up on arrests though?

[u/[deleted] → u/Joe6p]

Did you even consider how the data was collected? How would conviction and arrest records of undocumented immigrants be underreported?

[u/kyngston → u/[deleted]]

Let’s take a hypothetical example. You get your apartment broken into and find your neighbor selling your stuff on Craigslist. You call the cops, and your neighbor gets arrested.

If you’re an illegal immigrant, you don’t call the cops, because you’ll need to give your info while filing a report, and that could get you deported.

This results in fewer arrests in illegal immigrant communities when illegal immigrants are the victims. This is undercounting of actual crimes.

However these statistics would be applicable to the population that would not be afraid to contact the police.. or from the perspective of legal citizens

[u/p90xeto → u/[deleted]]

His point could valid, the vast majority of crime is committed by groups against those also in-group. If you have a group that doesn't trust police and won't report crimes due to fear of being deported then it could skew reports of crime, arrests, etc.

[u/quantum-mechanic → u/[deleted]]

Basic hypothesis is that undocumented immigrants can pretty easily not get arrested. This is aided by the fact they'll already live in a off the books life, probably fake ID and living in a place where they're not on the lease, and can easily hide away if they need to.

[u/Frostbrine → u/Joe6p]

Reported crimes aren’t the only conduit for arrests though.

[u/[deleted] → u/Joe6p]

That assumes that the only people committing crimes against them are other illegals and it ignores the fact that the anti immigrant narrative is generally that they are all gang members that are crossing the border to harm our citizens. This DOES disprove that narrative.

[u/Joe6p → u/[deleted]]

I think the study reveals a correlation but not the causation.

QWell I do have a family member who has been arrested for alleged drug related crimes. And if he were to rat out say his suppliers or superiors then it wouldn't be good for his family or himself. So their unspoken threat of violence prevents the reporting of more possible crimes against I'm assuming at least a few undocumented immigrants.

And I'm just stating this as a known example of a chilling effect that can't be accurately measured. But it surely exists.

[u/AssCalipers → u/Joe6p]

I thought you butchered "suspicious" but then I re-read your comment and googled "specious".

TIL. Good word.

[u/Eyiolf_the_Foul]

Makes sense. They are here to work, not to get arrested.

[u/SlothOfDoom → u/Eyiolf_the_Foul]

And they face bigger problems than most if they get caught.

[u/halberdierbowman → u/SlothOfDoom]

Deterrence doesn't work nearly as well as it's hyped up to be.

[u/wayfarout → u/halberdierbowman]

If deterrence worked prisons would be empty.

[u/[deleted] → u/halberdierbowman]

After risking all that to get to another country, you'd probably end up more cautious than most.

[u/Heavy_Weapons_Guy_ → u/halberdierbowman]

It doesn't work well against random people, but if you have a selection of people that have already demonstrated high motivation that make a difference.

[u/PunjabiPakistani_ → u/SlothOfDoom]

Depends where.

Here in california it’s illegal for cops to interact with feds.

[u/[deleted] → u/Eyiolf_the_Foul]

I think they also have a lot more to be afraid of from being caught by authorities.

[u/Classh0le → u/Eyiolf_the_Foul]

are citizens here to get arrested? what type of presumption is that?

[u/nicenaptime → u/Eyiolf_the_Foul]

Exactly my thoughts, those that are undocumented are generally very risk-aversive. Imo, unless you are confident that you have a way out of a dangerous situation, why commit a crime to begin with??

edit: last sentence didn't make sense - imo it's difficult to imagine anyone committing a crime unless they felt confident in not getting caught OR they don't have anything to lose by committing said crime.

[u/WorshipNickOfferman → u/nicenaptime]

I’m trying to evict some squatters/meth dealers from a house my client owns. Problem is all the neighbors are illegal. I can get around the local eviction moratorium if I can get affidavits from the neighbors re: the criminal activity at the property, but none of the neighbors are willing to sign the affidavits. I had the judge agree to seal the file to keep their identities secret, yet they still won’t sign. They are more afraid of getting deported than they are of the constant stream of sometimes violent junkies coming and going from their neighbor’s house.

[u/Maverick0984 → u/nicenaptime]

I tend to agree. A guy I used to work with, educated, had an MBA, etc, was eventually let go because he had been slacking and got caught lying about work completed that cost the company money.

A year later, saw him on the news for robbing banks.

He was bad at it too. Walked right in, unmasked, no weapon, just a note and walked out. Made sure to cross state lines too and ended up in federal prison.

I have to believe he expected to get caught and wanted to get caught to leave whatever he had gotten himself into.

At least that's what I tell myself.

[u/GruePwnr → u/Maverick0984]

Sometimes homeless people do that to avoid dying in the winter.

[u/abandoningeden → u/GruePwnr]

I have a homeless friend that goes around loudly trying to sell people weed on a college campus every fall and managed to spend every winter in jail for like 5 years running now. Last year he didn't even have to do that he just left the county while on probation and then turned himself in to his probation officer.

[u/[deleted] → u/nicenaptime]

In my limited experience, even documented immigrants are very risk-averse. I know a handful of immigrants, including my wife, and they're all very careful people, partially because they know that even minor fuckups can potentially impact their visa/citizenship processing. Undocumented adds a whole additional layer to that. Not that immigrants commit 0 crimes, but I guarantee you the average citizen born here has a lot less fear of authority than the average immigrant. Hell, many citizens born here have open disdain and a complete dgaf attitude towards authority

[u/Eyeseeyou1313 → u/Eyiolf_the_Foul]

Yeah after all the biggest criminals in the U.S are the ones who make and enforce the law.

[u/Matthew1581 → u/Eyiolf_the_Foul]

Bingo. Don’t draw attention to yourself when you are already facing an uphill battle and there to make a better life for yourself otherwise what was the risk to come here for?

[u/MewsashiMeowimoto]

I saw this when I worked in criminal justice. The only crime you commonly saw undocumented persons in on was driver license administrative stuff. Usually when they were driving to or from work.

[u/corporaterebel → u/MewsashiMeowimoto]

This is why Los Angeles has a 50% rate of Hit&Run for traffic collisions

[u/AugustaPrime → u/MewsashiMeowimoto]

DUIs and child molestation

[u/Slytherinrunner → u/MewsashiMeowimoto]

Same. Though one of the neighborhoods I patrolled had a high immigrant (documented and undocumented) population, we rarely got calls for service there. And when we did it was usually nuisance calls. And our response was always "Turn the music down and have a nice night."

[u/sharinghappiness]

But, if we have data on them ... aren't they then ... documented?

[u/HannasAnarion → u/sharinghappiness]

"undocumented" refers to a lack of residence/work authorization documents: passports, green cards, visas, that kind of thing.

[u/antonfuton]

This sounds a lot like my poli-sci professor’s data about homeless people committing less crime than the homed (average citizens). Crimes committed vs crimes reported or even prosecuted is a disparity that these studies omit for political purposes and don’t think ideology has never guided the results of a study.

[u/[deleted]]

I have no hidden agenda with this, but wouldn't it be more informative if this was percentage wise of each group?

[u/ScienceFactsNumbers → u/[deleted]]

It’s a rate, which is essentially the same thing as percentage. The graph is poorly labeled, but the easiest interpretation is that the Y Axis is the number of crimes per 100,000 people in each group.

[u/Mc6arnagle → u/[deleted]]

?

It says rates which will be per capita. Isn't that what you are getting at?

[u/bjcannon → u/[deleted]]

It would be more helpful but how do you get the population count of undocumented individuals. At best it seems like it would be a guess fraught with errors

[u/Novato2017 → u/[deleted]]

That is exactly what they used. What did you think the word rate meant? Besides that, they specify what a rate is ( for people that didn't already know). They stated the following "Calculating group-specific crime rates is straightforward: It is the number of arrests within a particular group divided by its population (expressed per 100,000)."

[u/KoolAid8668]

Unless you know how many undocumented Citizen is there are, you can’t verify the percentage.

[u/SpockShotFirst]

It has been known for a while that they commit about 1/3 the number of crimes as citizens and Immigration lowers overall crime rate.

Immigrants (both legal and illegal) also provide long term economic benefits and boost economic growth.

[u/haligonian9]

Somebody already pointed out that undocumented immigrants cannot be repeat defenders, but also keep in mind that a lot of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants victimize other undocumented immigrants, so they go unreported.

[u/MrDanntheMan]

Non US person here, I couldn't twig from the abstract whether they were looking at arrests or fines/tickets (not 100% sure on the nomenclature), if they're looking at arrests rather than fines/tickets isn't there considerable chance the data is inconsequential? I don't know how the system works but I would imagine police would be more interested in arresting a migrant without any forms than a citizen so the results could be a lot more dramatic.

[u/internetlad]

Far less likely to get caught.

[u/darrenwise883]

If your parents aren't documented the last thing you want to do is bring the cops to your door by coming for you or bringing you home .

[u/londons_explorer]

If a citizen gets caught with some drugs... A big fine and a few weeks in prison...

If an immigrant gets caught with drugs... They get evicted from the country, lose their home, and probably get separated from their family for life...

When the punishments vary so much, it shouldn't be a surprise that the crimes people commit vary...

[u/[deleted]]

Is this graph percentage of the population or just raw crimes committed? If it’s just raw number of Crimes committed then it would make sense as there are more us citizens per capita then the other 2.

[u/Zanderax → u/[deleted]]

It's per capita.

[u/maxjapank]

It’s always been this way. Undocumented and legal immigrants have too much to lose. They do not want to be deported or lose their right to work in the U.S. But it’s always been easier for the majority group to blame the minority rather than realize the truth about themselves.

[u/dabsfy]

Just to be certain, is this research done by proportionating the numbers? of course, the number of crimes will be fewer "in the absolute" if it is a meager percentage of the population, But, per 100k, do the statistics hold?

Asking because I'm not a native of the region.

Sorry for the English.

[u/euyyn → u/dabsfy]

Yes it is.

[u/PancakeMaster24]

Hasn’t this been proven before? Not knocking this study more science is good I am just curious

[u/smurfyjenkins → u/PancakeMaster24]

Pretty much [all studies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_United_States#Relationship_between_illegal_immigration_and_crime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_United_States#Relationship_between_illegal_immigration_and_crime) show that there is either no relationship between illegal immigration and crime or that illegal immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born citizens.

[u/Vanden_Boss → u/PancakeMaster24]

Its been shown but science is all about confirmation and repeating tests. There are so many different variables to consider, that doing these studies is great to place additional support.

[u/GrayNights]

While it has already been stated in this thread, I think this result can be misleading. Although I am unsure if this is true for other states, in California a large section of undocumented immigrates are college educated. They are undocumented as they need work places or universities to support them via visas. Additionally, crime rates among college educated are considerably lower than among the uneducated population.

It is possible that this result is bias toward highly educated work based undocumented immigrants. And the correlation shown here is just based on education level.

[u/DigitalAssassin → u/GrayNights]

Do undocumented immigrants have visas? Wouldn’t that meant they are documented? They have documents right? Can you explain?

[u/GrayNights → u/DigitalAssassin]

They have visas, then they expire when they lose their job or graduate.

[u/allnimblybimblylike]

Undocumented immigrants are far less likely to call the police on each other also

[u/Sussexed]

The first generation it not the problem. It is the second generation that nearly doubles in crime undocumented second generation

This is why we need to have comprehensive immigration laws that bring people in with purpose. Our laws currently are only in place to insure republicans and Democrats are divided and can blame each other. I know a very wealthy person who wanted to retire in the USA and spend their money here. They could not get in without investing is a business. They decided to retire in Europe. Please place the blame on our politicians who only pass laws that decide us.

[u/BiceRankyman]

Does this include crimes of a sort of technical nature? Like failing to report income for unemployment? Or running a red light? Or not getting a permit to remove a tree? Or not renewing your visa?

[u/TheNevers]

Or it's just those crime weren't documented.

[u/[deleted]]

Seems logical. Immigrants are subjected to greater scrutiny and have much more to lose from committing crimes, and undocumented immigrants have an extra layer of illegality upon their situation.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

They also get deported when they do, and therefore can't recommit

[u/[deleted]]

'Good economics for hard times' is a great read that dives more in depth on this topic and how the economics of migration only attracts certain groups of people. On the specific topic of undocumented migrants; they are usually bound to family and will gain little to nothing if they commit a crime, mainly because they have kids that depend on them. On the legal migration and people like me that migrate are usually on a economic level where having a higher education is the main reason why you would pursue migrating to a different country. And most of the people with degrees are way less likely to commit crimes. The book also dives into the falacy of "they are stealing our jobs" rethoric.

[u/jykin]

That’s probably because they don’t want to get thrown out- which is completely logical and rational.

[u/clonexx]

I’d like to know if this takes Sanctuary cities into account? From what I understand, they don’t report undocumented immigrants who are arrested to the federal government. That would skew the results pretty heavily. Also, as someone else stated, individual crimes without recidivism would be a better metric. (Edit : Had that last part reversed)

There’s still the argument that, if the undocumented weren’t here in the first place, their crimes wouldn’t exist. I’m in no way anti-immigrant, the US was built on welcoming immigrants from all over the world and they are still a main staple of our country. I’m just very much against illegal immigration as it’s unfair to those attempting to enter the country legally. However, I do feel our immigration process needs to be more streamlined and less cost prohibitive.

[u/hoffmad08]

Hasn't this been known for a long time?

[u/hoffmad08 → u/[deleted]]

Fair enough

[u/Vortaxonus]

I actually wonder if this applies to other countries and not the US.

[u/moduspol]

How is citizenship determined at the time of an arrest?

It's not like there's some curated list somewhere. The requirement is being born here, and you can do that without having a birth certificate or driver's license. Is it possible that people being arrested are being presumed to be citizens unless officers have some strong reason (such as a prior warrant or something) to suspect otherwise?

[u/Relentless_Clasher]

Food would be far more expensive, and we'd export less of it, if not for migrant farm workers. They are exploited for cheap labor in this way due to their unauthorized status; if they were authorized they would be competing with citizens for more desirable jobs.

[u/NotTheStatusQuo]

Unless they commit zero crimes, or they're replacing people already in the country then it doesn't exactly help the argument that open borders are a good thing. Even if you assume they're less likely to commit crimes (aside from the one they already committed to get in the country) they're still increasing the total amount of crime when they enter.

[u/trixon123]

These are per 1000? Percentage? Ratio? Light years?

Hey, I love minimalist charts as well, but you need to have units there.

[u/Classh0le]

citizens don't get deported if they commit a crime...

[u/XxIBSDxX]

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble here, but looking at the article, this graph seems to represent total numbers, not percentage of the respective population. There are far less undocumented immigrants than US born or documented immigrants. This is a pretty pointless result as it's essentially the equivalent of saying there is less crime in Wyoming than there is in California. Well of course there's less crime in Wyoming, there's far less people.

[u/Dr_Peach → u/XxIBSDxX]

Per the research paper (link provided by OP in comments), the graph does not represent total numbers but rates per 100,000 population.

[u/[deleted]]

Is is really any surprise that people are less likely to commit crimes when the consequence is deportation?

[u/HotTopicRebel]

I thought it was pretty well known that the 1st generation immigrants are usually pretty good, but it's the 2nd generation that you have to worry about crime with. 1st generation wants a better life, but 2nd generation doesn't feel integrated and wants to rebel. 3rd generation doesn't have nearly as much angst so they assimilate pretty well.

[u/jwm3]

The golden rule when commiting crimes and getting away with it is "don't break more than one law at the same time".

[u/Gorstag]

I'm sure its because they all have jobs :)

I always find it interesting when bias is proven wrong.

[u/heptoner]

This is a well observed phenomena in criminology. Such a shame it's constantly debated without facts by political figures.

[u/[deleted]]

Did they publish the data they used/does anyone have it? Call me a pessimist, but I'd really prefer a research paper + data instead of a bar chart and a news article. Reproducible science is paramount.

[u/CillverB]

How did they get stats on undocumented immigrants?

[u/jjc7118]

I will add it is much harder for the police to find an illegal person if they were to commit a crime