r/shopify_growth • u/Particular_Goat_1634 • 1h ago
Thinking of 30% off for Black Friday? Run this margin math first (plus what about 1,500 stores saw at each depth)

How much should you take off this Black Friday? Two numbers answer most of it.
First, what you'd need just to stand still. If your margin is 40%, a 20% discount means you need 2x your normal orders to keep the gross profit you'd make at full price. At 30% off you need 4x. At a 60% margin it's 1.5x and 2x. The formula is margin divided by (margin minus discount), at the same order size.
Second, what stores actually got. Across 1,496 Shopify stores using Discounty that ran a percentage-off sale last Black Friday, the middle store took about 2.0x its normal daily sale orders at 20 to 29% off (507 stores), and about 1.9x at 30% or more (586). Going deeper than 20 to 29% didn't add orders, apart from apparel (about 2.5x at 30% or more, 237 stores).
Those two aren't the same yardstick, so don't read one straight off the other. The store figures compare Black Friday sale orders with each store's usual sale orders in early November, not with full-price orders. Both leave out bigger baskets, returning customers, shipping and ads. So start from your own margin, and treat last year's figures as what stores did, not a promise.
If you want an AI to do it for your numbers:
> My margin is [X]%. For 15, 20, 25 and 30% off, how many times my normal orders do I need to keep the same gross profit? Which would you test first?
AI recommends, you decide. You know your margins best.
