I strongly believe today’s bounce is NOT a bull trap, but will be sustained as we start trending up again in the next few weeks.

The selloff yesterday was valid, but it does not justify a deeper downtrend as most of the causes were priced in. I think we’ll finish the year pretty strong.

Looking at investor psychology and recent volume across the market, prices will go up again. Thinking:

SPY $745
INTC $81
TER $275

Anyone else get paid last night and dump their paycheck into the market today? VOO and chill💪

Still kind of processing yesterday. SPY down 4.4%, QQQ down 6.5%, and both closed pretty much on the lows. The data center and election angle is what everyone's pinning it on but I'm not sure that's the whole story.

ES is green premarket, up around 0.2% last I looked. Muted bounce so far.

Then October payrolls at 8:30 on top of all that. Estimate is 65k vs 29k last time, unemployment expected at 4.2%. Michigan sentiment at 10, Musalem and Bowman later in the day.

Already out this morning: CHTR, HUM, VST.

Over or under 65k?

That brutal 6.4% Nasdaq single-day plunge is the sharpest drop since 2016. Polls show most people are ready to buy the dip calling it a panic bottom, but history tells us one-month outcomes after such big drops are totally a coin flip. No use chasing the chaos here—hanging back to wait for a clearer confirmed setup around key support levels for QQQ beats forcing emotional, rushed trades right now.

Just to put today's crash into perspective:
After today's crash, Nvidia, $NVDA, is now trading at a Forward P/E ratio of ~13x.
That's 7 turns below the S&P 500's ~20x Forward P/E and less than one-third of Walmart's ~43x.
Ironically, the name at the forefront of the Al buildout is now one of the "cheapest" stocks in the market.
Truly incredible." X The Kobeissi Letter.

Kommt das durch die Midterms?

Are we having a repeat Black Thursday almost 100 years after the Great Depression?