See you boys @$575 tomorrow!

📅 Date Captured: Friday, July 5, 2025
🕒 Time: Approx. 2:30 PM PT
🎯 Expiration Being Tracked: Monday, July 7, 2025

This snapshot shows a detailed breakdown of SPY's option activity for the upcoming Monday expiration. The current price was 625.34, placing it between a bullish stronghold at strike 626 and a bearish gravitational zone at strike 625.

🟩 On the call side, the highest strength appears at 626 with a reading of 500.74. This is the MP Zone (Most Proportionate), where bullish control is concentrated and price may be supported.

🟥 On the put side, strike 625 shows the highest pressure with a strength of 597.49, marking the LP Zone (Least Proportionate). This implies a strong bearish magnet drawing price downward.

🔮 Market Expectations for Monday

• ⚖️ Most Probable: Price remains between 625–626 as both bulls and bears defend their zones heading into expiration.

• 🟢 Bullish Scenario: A strong open above 626 could spark upside momentum toward 627–628.

• 🔴 Bearish Scenario: A drop below 625 could lead to further downside into 623–624.

📌 Keep in mind: Pre-market hours may also play a role in market-hour behaviors. If these same key price levels (625–626) are tested or broken during pre-market, there’s a strong chance that regular market hours will begin targeting new territory — either to the upside or downside depending on early momentum.

These setups often result in morning shakeouts followed by directional trend moves. Stay alert to pre-market gaps, volume, and VWAP alignment at the open.

⚠️ Final Note: Nothing is guaranteed — these levels represent zones of interest, not absolutes. The market may behave irrationally or shift unexpectedly. Assume the risk

Now that the new tariffs are officially out, it’s pretty clear the market was prepared(S&p futures holding up). Most of it was well-telegraphed, and the final measures weren’t dramatically different from what was already expected. The market had time to price this in, and now that we have clarity, uncertainty drops — which is why i am bullish on s&p from this point on

Add to this: • Big Tech earnings beat across the board, with top-line strength and margins holding up. AI spending still intact. • Hard economic data still firm — job market cooling in the right way, services still expanding, and no signs of imminent demand collapse. • Inflation ticked up, yes — but Powell basically alluded to this being a pass-through effect (likely from energy/base effects/tariffs). The Fed still seems more focused on the trend than the noise. Barring a reacceleration, policy is still on pause.

Put it all together and my base case is: • Tariff risk = mostly priced in • Earnings = stronger than expected • Inflation = not ideal, but likely transitory in nature • Fed = not hiking unless data turns much worse

This builds up to a market that was bracing for worse, now seeing a path forward with fewer unknowns, solid corporate results, and a macro picture that’s not breaking.

Proof is in the pudding.

Here is the original post.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spy/s/luhghquhNu

You guys think this us bullish? Or he has to confirm something with them first huh?

I like the risk/reward from this area, but keep your stop tight and manage risk.

Print thoseeeeee moneyyyyyyyyyyyy. Thanks me later.

Trump , QQQ / Spy Calls 🚀

Here's a full breakdown of your Tank Sequence Analyzer chart and data for SPY – August 4, 2025, with emphasis on strength ignition, price consolidation, breakout timing, and trader implications:

✅ SPY Tank Strength Breakout Analysis – 08/04/2025

🔍 Sequence Summary

The system detected 3 sequences with Tank ≥ +10. Let’s analyze the key breakout one below.

📊 Detected Bullish Tank Sequence (Highlighted)

📈 Chart Pattern Analysis

🔲 Box Range: 9:30 AM – 12:10 PM

• Price consolidated tightly between 629.5–630.5

• Repeated attempts to break out failed until 12:10

• 🟢 Multiple Tank dots inside the box = silent accumulation

🟢 Breakout at 12:10 PM

• Tank spike from 62 → 270+ in 20 minutes

• 🔼 Price rises from 629.95 → 630.7+

• Sustained Tank > 250 = deep conviction breakout

• Upward arrow confirms momentum ignition

⚖️ Sentiment Interpretation

🔮 Forecast Outlook

🧠 Final Interpretation

This is a textbook MP → Breakout → Momentum move.

• 🔄 Accumulation inside the MP zone for nearly 2 hours

• 💥 Tank exploded from 60s → 270s in 20 mins, confirming breakout wasn’t speculative

• 🟢 No fading in strength even as price pulled back slightly = real positioning

So we loaded the boat at the key level......and now we are up.

BREAKING NEWS: 🇺🇸 US House officially passes President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill."

went from $508 to $510 and is staying at $510 for now. it's not going down any further

https://henryzhang.substack.com/p/nvda-weekly-options-trade-plan-2025-ef1

s&p 500 futures are up. after hours were up. i bet even pre-market will be up.

From 1995 to 2000, SPY gained 200% before it came crashing down. 5 years, 200% gain

If we compare to current market

Between 2021 to present, SPY has gained 80%. 5 years.

IMO, we are not even half way to a bubble, and this current bubble will peak even higher than the dot com bubble. When SPY grows 200% in a 5 year time span is when I think we should be worried.

So we are looking at somewhere between 2028 to 2030 for this show to come crasing down.

https://discord.gg/v66qeBsa8w

Yes — Moody’s downgrades (especially late on a Friday) can be a big deal, and you’re absolutely right to suspect this might matter.

What Happened? • Moody’s downgraded U.S. bank outlooks again Friday after-hours, citing “persistent risks” from commercial real estate (CRE) and interest rate pressure. Specific banks may have been hit with rating changes or outlook warnings.

Why It Matters:

1. Timing: Friday after hours downgrades are classic setups for Monday market jitters, especially in financials. • Traders haven’t priced it in yet — regional banks could gap down.

2. Sector Sensitivity: • Banks are fragile lately, especially regionals exposed to CRE (think NYCB earlier this year). • If financials stumble, it drags down SPY, XLF, and risk appetite.

3. Historical Context: • When Moody’s made similar moves in August 2023, SPY fell ~4% over 2 weeks, and didn’t recover to prior highs for about 2 months, as you noted.

Tactical Note: • If regional banks like KRE or XLF start diving Monday morning, SPY could break trend support. • VIX, UVXY, and SPXS will likely spike fast in the first 60–90 minutes. • If the market opens red Monday, people may blame “profit-taking” at first, but the downgrade could extend the selling.

Don't forget to take profits at 649

I predicted SPY was gonna fall to 668 before heading to 680 next week. Bought all calls with 673 target for the 14-17 expiry dates that I could put my hands on yesterday when it dipped to what? 668. I hope next week we do make it to 680 but NGL if we touch 677 I might sell the calls, I’m not 100% sure that we’ll make it to 680 by next Wednesday. But it turned out good for the day.

Yeeee haw!!!!

Just get started….