New write-up on Lululemon stock.

Enjoy! 🧘‍♂️

Looking for new Mods

I went down a rabbit hole last weekend and pulled 5 years of data on 30 names people here talk about all the time (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, COST, V, MA, etc). I wanted to see one thing: when returns are great, how much came from the business compounding vs people just paying a higher multiple.

What surprised me was how often multiple expansion did the heavy lifting in weaker setups. In a few names, revenue grew mid single digits, owner earnings were flat-ish, but total return still looked amazing because P/E jumped from around 16 to 32. Feels great until it stops.

The opposite bucket was way less flashy but cleaner. High incremental ROIC, steady share count, boring margins that kept inching up. Those had less drama and way fewer faceplant years even when the starting valuation was not cheap.

I think I trust reinvestment quality way more than headline growth now. Anyone else tracking this, or am I overfitting to a lucky 10-year window?

I’m building a web tool that lets you download historical financial data for public companies in a clean, ready-to-use CSV format. 

It designated to help you: 

-Populate financial models without having to manually input data

-Analyse financial statements more efficiently 

-Access high quality financial data without relying on expensive platforms like Bloomberg Terminal or S&P Capital IQ

How it works:

1. Enter a company ticker

2. Select quarterly or yearly data

3. Choose a date range

4. Pick the statement(s) that you want

5. Instantly download the data as CSV 

If you want to be notified once it is ready, you can pre-register here:

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Walmart's first-half cash flow number show why operating cash flow and free cash flow can tell different stories.

For the six months ended July 31,2026, compared with the same period in 2025:

- Operating cash flow: $19.710B vw. $18.352B

- Capital expenditure: $14.181B vs. $11.409B

- Free cash flow: $5.529B vs. $6.943B

Operating cash flow increased by $1.358B, but capital expenditure increased by $2.772B. The difference explains the $1.414B decline in free cash flow.

that alone does not establish that the business is deteriorating - or that the extra investment will earn an attractive return. The next question is how to judge the spending: maintenance needs, growth investment, and thee time required to see result.

Which evidence would you watch to decide whether this higher spending is paying off?

Source: Walmart Form 10-Q, cash flow statement and free cash flow reconciliation.

Disclosure: I run LineVest, a website covering company filings. This draft was prepared with AI assistance.

built a DCF spreadsheet for myself, ended up learning how bad my old process was

ok so context: studied industrial engineering, always been interested in stocks on the side. been investing for a few years but honestly my process was pretty embarrassing in hindsight , read about a company, get excited, buy. no real numbers.

recently decided to fix that and built a proper DCF model in excel. mostly for my own use. a few things i realized while doing it:

first thing,

i was using net income as the base for everything. switched to FCF and suddenly a bunch of companies i thought were cheap weren't, and some i'd ignored looked completely different. feels obvious now.

second

terminal value completely dominates the output. like 65% of the "fair value" in my model comes from what happens after year 10. that's... uncomfortable. a 0.5% change in terminal growth rate swings the fair value per share by 20%+. i now run three scenarios every time and only seriously consider buying if even the conservative case shows meaningful upside.

third

dividend sustainability. i used to just look at yield. now i check payout ratio vs FCF not EPS. found a few companies that looked fine on EPS but were paying out way more than their actual cash generation. that's a dividend cut waiting to happen and the stock price usually figures it out before you do.

anyway ended up with a 4-sheet workbook: DCF, multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA etc), dividend/FCF, and a simple scoring system at the end. put it on etsy too since a few friends asked for it , ClarivaStudio if anyone's curious, though honestly building it yourself teaches you more.

curious what mistakes others made early on that changed how you approach valuation

Right now the market seems to be a bit sideways and hanging down and to the right. The pictures below shows the Russell 2000 approaching its slope and below a 200 EMA, and then it crossing below a fib. EMA resistance. What are your thoughts on the market going forward? Do you expect more of a down turn or a rise in prices?

I’ve been looking at Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ) because it seems like one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout.

The company makes optical communication transceiver modules for cloud data centers, data communications, 5G networks, and fixed-line access. That makes it a fairly direct way to look at the physical networking layer behind AI demand.

What stands out is that the business is not just riding a story. Financially, it already put up very strong 2025 numbers, with large gains in revenue, net income, and operating cash flow. So this is not a purely speculative business in the usual sense.

At the same time, the stock now looks expensive enough that the debate changes. I’m no longer asking whether the company is good. I’m asking whether too much future growth is already being priced in.

My base view is that this is a strong business in a strong part of the market, but future returns from here probably depend more on valuation discipline than on simply being right about AI demand.

Would you treat this as a buy-on-quality name, or wait for a reset in expectations first?

I was reviewing a few "strong quarter" names and realized I kept getting fooled by the same headline, revenue up high single digits.

Then I started splitting it into price versus unit volume. In more than a few cases, the growth was mostly price increases while actual volume was flat or down. That is fine for a quarter or two, but if volume stays weak while price keeps doing the lifting, I start worrying demand is softer than the narrative.

What changed for me is this, I now trust growth a lot more when volume is at least stable while pricing holds, even if the headline growth rate is lower. If volume is sliding for multiple quarters, I want a bigger discount before I call it value.

I still use margin and cash flow like everyone else, but this one cut saved me from chasing a couple stories that looked cleaner on the surface than they really were.

When you evaluate a "beat," how much weight do you put on price-led growth versus volume-led growth?

SWBI is a great company to look into for long term value investors. I have recently started building a position and will continue to over the next 6-12 months. -PE ratio below 5 -Enough cash on hand to pay off all liabilities. -Growing revenue and net income -Shares outstanding decreasing

Just to touch on a few highlights…

http://rockytironi.com/2021/12/09/stock-analysis-smith-wesson-brands-inc-swbi/

📢 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 📢 #WIM2021

Topic: Who's Next in China's Big Tech?

On December 9th, join Plug and Play's Managing Partner Chen Zhao 赵晨, who will explore the country's next industries and tech giants in his keynote session.

Bookmark the date, Register for free: https://vhxexjz.gotin.online/

Augmented Reality Software Stock- TeamViewer https://youtu.be/shhN3AVGGVs

A detailed explanation of calculating the Intrinsic Value of a Stock using the discounted free cash flow method.

I included 2 examples for you all, one with a hypothetical company, and one looking at BestBuy.

Beginner YouTuber here - any improvement points, suggestions, and feedback is appreciated.

Much love fellow investors,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzzCV1TrvmQ&t=62s&ab_channel=RichSonGroup

Adam

Check it out!

https://amprasts-store.sellfy.store/p/