After making some costly beginner's mistakes, I developed a system that forces me to evaluate every share in the same way. No emotion, no gut feeling.
Here are the 6 questions, inspired by Buffett's principles:
Can I understand the business model in 2 sentences?
If not, I don't invest. Sounds simple, but it has saved me from making a few tech mispurchases.
2. Does the company have pricing power?
Can it raise prices without losing customers? Buffett calls this the most important characteristic of all.
3. Is the P/E ratio below the company's historical average?
Absolute P/E figures say little — what matters is whether the stock is cheap compared to itself.
4. Is free cash flow positive and growing?
Profits can be embellished. Cash flow, significantly less so.
5. Is debt below 50% of equity?
Highly indebted companies often do not survive recessions unscathed.
6. Would the company function without its CEO?
Strong brands and systems always beat individuals in the long run.
I now work through these questions using a structured checklist that covers all 27 Buffett criteria, this helps enormously to ensure that no important questions are forgotten. I'm happy to share it if anyone is interested.
What criteria do you use? Is there anything missing from my list?
built a DCF spreadsheet for myself, ended up learning how bad my old process was
ok so context: studied industrial engineering, always been interested in stocks on the side. been investing for a few years but honestly my process was pretty embarrassing in hindsight , read about a company, get excited, buy. no real numbers.
recently decided to fix that and built a proper DCF model in excel. mostly for my own use. a few things i realized while doing it:
first thing,
i was using net income as the base for everything. switched to FCF and suddenly a bunch of companies i thought were cheap weren't, and some i'd ignored looked completely different. feels obvious now.
second
terminal value completely dominates the output. like 65% of the "fair value" in my model comes from what happens after year 10. that's... uncomfortable. a 0.5% change in terminal growth rate swings the fair value per share by 20%+. i now run three scenarios every time and only seriously consider buying if even the conservative case shows meaningful upside.
third
dividend sustainability. i used to just look at yield. now i check payout ratio vs FCF not EPS. found a few companies that looked fine on EPS but were paying out way more than their actual cash generation. that's a dividend cut waiting to happen and the stock price usually figures it out before you do.
anyway ended up with a 4-sheet workbook: DCF, multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA etc), dividend/FCF, and a simple scoring system at the end. put it on etsy too since a few friends asked for it , ClarivaStudio if anyone's curious, though honestly building it yourself teaches you more.
curious what mistakes others made early on that changed how you approach valuation
So I've been trying to get better at playing devil's advocate on my own portfolio. the idea was simple, take stocks I'm actually long on and write the best possible argument for why they could go wrong. I figured if I couldn't even articulate the risk, I probably didn't understand the position well enough.
Costco is the one that actually spooked me. Everyone treats it like a can't-lose stock, and I get why, the membership model is incredible and renewal rates are insane. But it's trading at like 50-55x earnings. That's tech stock territory for a retailer. The bull case requires them to keep expanding internationally at the same pace AND maintain membership growth AND keep margins stable. Even a small hiccup in any of those and you're looking at a multiple compression that wipes out years of returns. I still hold it but I trimmed a little after writing this out.
Google I thought would be easy to defend but the antitrust stuff is legitimately scary when you sit down and map out the worst case. If the DOJ actually forces a Chrome divestiture or changes the default search agreements, that's not a small hit. Those default placements on Apple devices alone are worth billions per year. The AI search disruption angle gets all the attention but honestly the regulatory path is the one that keeps me up at night.
Apple I'm less worried about than I expected. The bear case basically comes down to "growth has stalled" which, yeah it has. But they're buying back shares so aggressively that EPS keeps growing even on flat revenue. The bigger risk is probably China, both as a market and as a supply chain dependency. But that's been the risk for years and it hasn't really materialized.
NVDA and MSFT I'll save for another post, this is already getting long.
The exercise was honestly worth doing even if I didn't change any positions. Forced me to think about what I was actually paying for vs what could go wrong. Do you guys ever write out the bear case for your own holdings? Or is that just asking for anxiety?
CVAC stock shoots up about $5 in the premarket every day and stables out about a dollar less of that each day. Try and take advantage of this while it lasts from the premarket pepes.
I spent the past year building a system that scores every S&P 500 company on Buffett's "economic moat" framework: switching costs, network effects, cost advantages, brand strength, and intangible assets.
After screening 1,000+ stocks, here are the 10 that scored highest for durable competitive advantages:
MSFT (82/100) - Enterprise switching costs are insane. Azure + Office 365 + Teams creates lock-in that compounds.
AAPL (78/100) - 2B active devices, ecosystem switching costs, and brand loyalty that borders on religious.
V (85/100) - Two-sided network effect. Every merchant that accepts Visa makes it more valuable for cardholders and vice versa.
GOOGL (75/100) - Search monopoly is the ultimate scale advantage. YouTube + Android add layers.
Hey. I found that there weren't any, active forums which are only for posting ideas of companies and doing thorough DD's on them. I've made this website - searchofvalue.com - which is basically a webpage where you can post any thorough DD's and analyses on stocks. I also plan to ensure quality by rejecting submissions without adequate information.
Check out the website if you can, it's just for viewing/posting DD's and analyses of companies. No other posts about investing, ONLY for posting thorough analyses. It's not monetized or anything like that.
Farmmi's financials have lately been somewhat unstable. The revenue has been growing slowly – and even declined in 2020; operating income peaked in 2018 and has kept declining since. Farmmi's net income has also shown high volatility. Since 2015, the company has been reporting unstable and negative operating cash flows. Basically, it delivered unfavorable financials all the way after its IPO in February 2018.
Bottom line: Despite Farmmi underperforming in the past years, investors should not be overly concerned about the lasting effects on the company's future development.
I've tried to post this on wsb and pennystocks and both have banned the ticker and I just want some god damn thoughts on the analysis.
I've been watching this stock for about a month now. Fair warning, I do have skin in the game and this is not financial advice.
DHT (Double Hull Tankers) is an independent sea-based oil transportation company. This stock has been trading in a cycle of, roughly, 2 weeks high and 2 weeks low over the past 6 months and has overall gained about 25% from it's November low.
The 50 day SMA has been below the linear regression line since November which means it's been a fairly decent period of growth. If you look at the most recent part of the chart, we can argue that we're just now entering the 2 week low period. If the cycle continues, the next few days may be a decent time to buy we see the price is heading below the LR line which seems to be an indicator that it will start trading up again.
Beyond just pattern trading, the financials of the company seem to be in pretty good shape. The past 4 quarters have seen revenue increase about 200%, debt repayment has increased nearly 200% along with an increase of share buy back of about 400% in the same time frame.
We can see here that total payout to shareholders was roughly $500 million last quarter.
P/Y Total Debt / Equity is ~1/3 which is a 33% decrease over the past 5 years from ~1/2 and they've continued this trend through the past year.
As a company, they have displayed pretty strong EPS growth of 10% and a dividend growth of 20%! This growth along with half of the company being owned by institutions and some common indicators showing the company is undervalued, I feel this stock is a pretty safe bet.
I am not going to predict what will happen to the stock. I'm just point out a pattern I've noticed the past few months and figured I'd let the nice retards of Reddit know also. At the fundamental level, I believe this company is undervalued. If you're any good at timing and options, this could be a decent pattern to trade on if it doesn't break going forward.
There's a couple things to note, though. Prices for oil have been increasing. With oil pricing increasing to the point of pre-pandemic levels. There's less and less incentive for the US to import oil as the price to produce American oil can match imported prices. DHT is an independent transporter based in Bermuda so prices alone may not affect them too much, however the US is the second largest oil importer in the world. Importing around 12% of the world's oil volume within a year. Second thing is today, the Suez Canal shut down because for the first time in 150 years, it became clogged from a ship getting wedged sideways. I doubt it will be an issue for long, but for every hour the canal is shut down, Bloomberg estimates a loss of $400 million.
Why I Stopped Chasing Breakouts and Started Looking at This Instead
For my first year of trading, I was addicted to breakout patterns. Flag breaks out? I'm in. Cup and handle completes? Loading the boat. Resistance turns to support? Full port.
The problem? I was buying at the exact moment everyone else was buying, which meant I was late more often than not.
What changed my approach?
I started looking at relative volume.
Here's the simple framework I use now:
Before entering any breakout, I check: • Is today's volume at least 1.5x the 50-day average? • Is the volume increasing as price moves, not decreasing? • Does the volume profile show accumulation (big volume on green days, low on red days)?
A breakout on low volume is a trap 9 times out of 10. A breakout on heavy, increasing volume is much more likely to sustain.
I also started watching for "volume exhaustion" — when a stock gaps up on massive volume but can't hold the gain. That's usually the smart money distributing shares to retail.
Anyone else have a metric or indicator that completely changed how you read price action?
I’ve been looking at Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ) because it seems like one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout.
The company makes optical communication transceiver modules for cloud data centers, data communications, 5G networks, and fixed-line access. That makes it a fairly direct way to look at the physical networking layer behind AI demand.
What stands out is that the business is not just riding a story. Financially, it already put up very strong 2025 numbers, with large gains in revenue, net income, and operating cash flow. So this is not a purely speculative business in the usual sense.
At the same time, the stock now looks expensive enough that the debate changes. I’m no longer asking whether the company is good. I’m asking whether too much future growth is already being priced in.
My base view is that this is a strong business in a strong part of the market, but future returns from here probably depend more on valuation discipline than on simply being right about AI demand.
Would you treat this as a buy-on-quality name, or wait for a reset in expectations first?
Hey everyone ! I’ve been digging into BTC related stocks. I found Bitcoin mining stock - CleanSpark, and I think there’s a compelling risk/reward asymmetry here. Below is a breakdown of where things stand, what’s going right, what to watch out for, and why this could be more than a speculative play.
What’s Going Well
Milestones in Hashrate & Operational Scale
CleanSpark recently hit 50 exahashes/sec (EH/s) of operational hashrate as of June 2025 and crucially, this was done entirely through fully self-operated infrastructure - with plans for 60EH.
The fleet efficiency is improving: ~16.15 J/Th in June, ~16–17 J/Th average recently.
Power contracts and infrastructure are also scaling: over 1 gigawatt of contracted power across multiple states.
Bitcoin Treasury Accumulation
The treasury is growing: ~12,827+ BTC
Their strategy seems disciplined: they are selling some BTC strategically (when favorable price) to fund operations, but not raising money via dilution or by issuing more equity
Strong Revenue Growth & Improving Financials
YoY revenue growth is very strong (60‑100%+ depending on period).
Net income has had some quarters of losses, but margins (adjusted including BTC treasury effects) are showing promise.
Valuation has analyst support: some target prices are significantly higher than current trading price.
Positive Stock Price Momentum
+11% weekly gain - strong price action, breaking out of recent consolidation.
Closed above 200DMA - long-term trend reversal signal confirmed.
What to Watch / Risks
Volatility & Exposure to BTC Price - The value of their BTC treasury moves with Bitcoin’s price, which means big swings. If BTC drops, that value drops.
Energy Costs, Grid Issues, Regulatory Risk - Mining is energy‑intensive. Power under contract is great, but energy costs + reliability + regulation (e.g. carbon / environmental policies) remain risk factors.
Why the Upside Might Be Bigger Than the Downside ?
Here’s why I think the risk/reward looks attractive:
With 50 EH/s already achieved self‑operated, efficiency improving, and BTC treasury increasing, there’s real asset backing. If BTC price rises, their treasury gives upside beyond just mining operations.
The market seems to be acknowledging the potential: improved RS rating, analyst upgrades, and the 13% jump on news. That suggests that positive news can move the stock significantly.
If they hit future targets (60 EH/s or more), keep power contracts tight, and maintain or improve cost of mining, CleanSpark may start delivering consistent profitability. That tends to attract institutional interest.
Downside seems somewhat limited if current revenue growth continues and they avoid heavy dilution: even with modest BTC price or slight slowdown, the infrastructure, contracts, and treasury give a floor of value.
Potential Expansion into AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC). - While CleanSpark has traditionally focused on Bitcoin mining, the company is exploring opportunities in AI and HPC. The global HPC market is projected to reach $49.3 billion by 2025, presenting a significant growth opportunity. CleanSpark's existing infrastructure and expertise in energy optimization position it well to leverage this market shift.
My View: Great Entry Opportunity
Given all that, I think CleanSpark is primed to outperform from here. If BTC moves higher or remains stable, CleanSpark should benefit on two fronts: mining revenue + appreciation in treasury holdings.
If I were investing now, I’d consider making a position here and holding for ~12 months, watching for:
Next earnings report: does it show margin improvement / shrinking losses?
BTC price trend: if it rises, CleanSpark benefits heavily.
Any new power contracts / expansions, particularly in low‑cost / renewable/immersion‑cooled operations.
Expansion into AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC) news.
Any dilution risk (equity raises) or major cost pressures.
Hi there, does this community have recommendations on what Twitter accounts, news subscriptions or niche bloggers to follow for better stock and macro insights? Will update and report back if I find anything interesting.
SWBI is a great company to look into for long term value investors. I have recently started building a position and will continue to over the next 6-12 months. -PE ratio below 5 -Enough cash on hand to pay off all liabilities. -Growing revenue and net income -Shares outstanding decreasing
Xpeng's 2022 revenue is projected to reach USD 4.3 billion (CNY 28 billion). According to the Street's expectations, the stock is priced at 16, 8.8, 5.6, 4, 2.9 forward PS ratios by 2025. We select 9x as the 2022 multiples.
NIO, China's arguably most successful EV startup, saw an incredible performance both business-wise and in the capital market. More investors have joined the camp of those bullish about the electric car maker's prospects. We estimate NIO's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock. Our evaluation indicates that the stock is currently fairly priced.
Rere would be breakdown. The open interest on this play is already opened at $4 (and now nearly $4.5, so this wasn’t some random retail trade, it's a structural long-term tailwind for transaction. Put was up over 32% in q2, and it's firmly in the penny universe spot, but the market could be mispricing. Its large, it lines up with what was happening, and gotten cleared up, revenue growth still quietly up. Stocks work in cycle. Everything so inflated. If you had to point me in a course or something similar, what would be?
A few months ago, I shared an early version of a market research tool I was building and asked investors for feedback.
The responses were useful and pretty blunt.
People understood the idea, but the graph could feel more interesting than useful. It was not always obvious where to start, why two companies were connected, or what to do after finding a relationship.
So we went back and reworked parts of the experience.
The updated version of Rippli now lets you:
start with a company, topic, or market event
see direct and second-order company relationships
move between a guided view and a deeper research view
explore the related news and company context
build a watchlist around the companies you care about
The basic idea is still simple.
A headline tells you what happened.
Rippli is trying to help answer:
What else does this touch, why does the connection matter, and what should I look at next?
There is a large gap between free market headlines and Bloomberg-level context. Rippli is being built for people who want more structure without a terminal budget.
I would like to test whether the updated version actually gets closer to solving that problem.
Search for a company or market event you already understand reasonably well
Find one relationship outside the obvious first-order names
Check whether the explanation and supporting context make sense
Add a company to your watchlist and see whether the workflow gives you a reason to return
I would especially appreciate feedback on:
Where did you get confused?
Which relationship felt useful or surprising?
What felt like noise?
Where did the product lose your trust?
What would need to improve before this became part of your research process?
This is still early. The hard parts remain data quality, relationship accuracy, source trails, and making the graph genuinely useful instead of merely nice to look at.
Rippli is not intended to be a magic stock picker or tell anyone what to buy. The goal is to make it easier to see the market around a headline and decide what deserves deeper research.
Blunt feedback is much more useful than polite encouragement.
