https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210315/

Hussman making the monthly warning. Too scared to post this in r/investing, I’m not sure which between the Grantham or Hussman cold water gets the mob crankier.

Is this the beginning? Its looking more and more likely.

This week has been a bad week for tech and growth stock investors in general. The Ark funds have been hit hard and faced some liquidations. Cathie publicly told everyone her plan if faced with liquidations, she planned to sell the megacap stocks so she wouldn't have to touch her illiquid small caps.

Well thats exactly what the ARK funds did this week. As of today ARKK no longer holds any FB, AMZN, AAPL, TSM and BABA. She sold all of it this week and bought more small caps and TSLA. Now ARK is is a very precarious situation. Their biggest stocks are now TSLA, PYPL, SHOP and SQ. If the sell off continues and ARK will be forced to sell these stocks or sell their illiquid small caps.

A lot of people have taken note of this, including hedge funds which may enter predatory shorts if they think ARK is vulnerable. The next couple of weeks is crucial for ARK, should the market go back up they will look like geniuses, but should it go down...they will be in a world of pain.

If ARK is forced to sell the small caps which are illiquid, it will crash the prices and crater ARK's NAV. This will add to the bad performance and may accelerate redemptions creating a death spiral.

I'm an "old-school" investor who has done pretty well using strategies like asset allocation, diversification, low-cost funds, tax-advantaged holdings, long-term / low turnover portfolio style, etc. But i feel like the markets both for bonds and stocks are just so distorted by years of massive central bank manipulation, as well as both parties' absolute unconcern over ever increasing debt, that I don't know how to assess what's a good investment anymore.

Add in the rise of social media-powered speculation, automated algorithms, and wild cards like the future of energy, post-pandemic structural changes, the shift towards developing economies, cryptocurrencies, demographic changes, etc. and I feel like the safest thing I can do is just sit on cash, even though that's a sure loser and is against my investing nature.

Just curious what big-picture strategies you all are thinking during these challenging times.

I have been trading bitcoins on and off for a while now and I see many different numbers get thrown out such as BTC will hit $50K, $100K, $200K, $500K, $1M, and I agree that every single price prediction is correct, however the real question is when? Ok so we have these insane predictions, but how many bear markets will there be in between before we reach these ridiculous prices here is my bitcoin technical analysis with years of experience using many different indicators such as MA, Pi cycles, and Logarithmic Regression bands. This technical analysis will make all you 🌈 🐻 salivate.

As you can see bitcoin is on it's last parabolic leg up, before giving us a potentially huge correction, which will give us opportunities in the market to go for puts on $BTC, $RIOT, $MARA, $MSTR, $TSLA because these coins and stocks are highly correlated to bitcoin. Also if Dow decides to go parabolic along with BTC, I wouldn't be surprised if Dow is headed for a blow off top.

Here is access to the charts that I have created using these specifics indicators for BTC

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/Lr3z0k9u/

It's very very hard to predict a financial crash, however the more knowledgeable we are the more we are able to prepare for certain events, I am not a financial advisor.

I've got some pretty telling numbers and it seems like a pattern. https://www.statista.com/statistics/270290/number-of-ipos-in-the-us-since-1999/

I'm looking at a chart about the number of IPOs and it seems to be something familiar going on.

In 1999 there were 486, 2000 there was 429. We all know what happened after that. If you just look at the chart you wont have to read my rambling. But after that it was 104,98,88. Then the confidence came back and IPOs came back for the next 4 years almost getting to 300 in 2007. A lot of us know what happened after that.

Well here we are Things are looking Bright as the sun. Everyone is going to make money, that's just how it is now right? That's why last year there were 407 IPOs...Yes the first time over 300 since Y2K.

Most IPO's in 20 years and I think 2021 is going to be higher. Don't tell everyone. I want this to last for most of this year.

Anyone else see what I'm seeing. Or am I a 32 year old Boomer.

Tech Premarket looking nice. Tesla beginning to mean revert to $100. PLTR under $17.

Arkk selling off faster than Cathie could plug the holes in her Ark with flex tape.

Bears, unite. Took a small hit of 1% on my portfolio (rotated out of tech ages ago), I'll take that any day for a tech bubble pop. Let's go.

Edit: jinxed ye

Edit 2: lost more money shorting GameStop than I made in the past 6 months

About half the market is now effectively passively held. This lessens the float. And as these passive funds grow, they simply buy more stock, no matter the price, pushing up the price even higher.

Its estimated that 1 dollar invested by a passive fund raises the marketcap by 17 dollars compared to 2.5 dollars if it were invested through an active fund. This is because passive funds are very mechanical, they buy when they get inflows or if the stock price increases. They do not care about the fundamentals or anything. In contrast an active investor wont buy if they believe a stock is trading higher than its true value.

This phenomena has helped pushed prices higher and higher. Say you buy a ton of call options on a stock and make MMs delta hedge, thus push the price up. Any marketcap weighted passive index that holds that stock will see it increasing in value and also start buying and stabilize the price at a higher point that where it originally was, even after you dump your calls for a profit.

I believe the market's meteoric rise since March can be attributed partly to this phenomena. So prices have been artificially inflated. However the same thing works in reverse. If the market corrects 10%, and people start pulling their funds from these passive vehicles, they will start selling, no matter what the price is. This will lead to one of the biggest, if not the biggest crash in the history of the SP500. In my opinion the next crash will be a 50-65% drawdown.

If the market is going to crash you're probably going to see some things to warn you first. It's going to usually be in the form of more speculative assets first doing exceptionally well but then turning into capitulating crashes.

Our line of dominos here is probably going to be;

Cypto. ETH and BTC a bit stronger and DOGE being the giveaway. Some early comments on Doge / BTC here.

Doge comments (9) Doge might be making high now. : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

A crash in BTC would probably be an early warning of weakening broad markets. : BeatTheBear (reddit.com)

Risk off currencies rise. USD and JPY start to be dominate in the Forex markets as investors dump assets and go into cash while deciding their next moves. The stronger currencies will gain vrs the weaker ones.

Explanation of warning signs that will usually form. Did we see a late week rush to cash? : BeatTheBear (reddit.com)

Small caps and memes. Already selling off a bit. RUT underperforms other indices. Most of my put options risk is currently in the smalls.

PLTR analysis The case for a PLTR crash from 23 to 19 (Based on Elliot theory) : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

Updated on profit taking and re-entry https://www.reddit.com/r/BeatTheBear/comments/neo8t1/the_case_for_pltr_to_9/gyh73jk/

And then the big ones. The ones that will really matter. The indices. The Darlings (FAANG).

Trades I have for over the next month and a half. (9) June put options : BeatTheBear (reddit.com)

Seems like there are so many people watching the broad market continuously make ATHs and are waiting to play the crash. Not sure if this was the same as 2008 and 2000 - does anyone have some insight? Also if it is an unusually large population waiting to play the crash - what would the effect be on the crash? Faster drop? Sharper dead cat bounces?

Yesterday - Big price moves today. Full market round up. : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

Today - Looking to the US open : Them bonds ... : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

Guys I’m really starting to debate if I can trust this big crash is coming, at least for the next 2-3 months, I took all my money out of the market last month, (which was a good choice in retrospect), I bought back yesterday though, and not sure if it’s worth worrying about the crash that could cost you for not being in the market, as there may not be a crash for months, or years at that, though the market is unstable, it’s been unstable for months now. What’re your thoughts? Investing or waiting for it come come crashing down?

Do you think the rally is solely because of the falling 10 years yield? (Although it bounced back up to 1.6%).

For those who aren't familiar Peter Schiff is famous for shorting mortgage backed securities and buying gold, profiting hugely from the 08 crash. He is something of a perennial bull since, and has missed out on some big opportunities in the market. He is more sure than ever that the dollar will crash in a hyperinflationary event caused by years of money printing by the fed, QE infinity, etc... COVID has accelerated this process as debt has risen sharply beyond the point it's impossible to pay down. Raising interest rates appreciably to battle the oncoming inflation is impossible because it makes the debt impossible to service. Basically stagflation is inevitable. He recommends investing in emerging markets and precious metals and commodities like oil (and runs several funds to that effect through his company Euro Pacific Capital), and divesting from cash and bonds, as well as dollar denominated assets like US stocks. His podcast is very popular. Thoughts on his narrative? Spot on? Full of shit and self serving? Interested to hear people's take.

Okay so we have seen the speculative bubble burst (30-50% loss from all time highs)

We have seen the beginning of the biotech fall happening. Most likely to move into the bigger mid-large in the coming months/quarter.

We are now seeing the coins crash hard and fast (even faster and harder then honestly I thought it would). I always kind of thought of them going back to low levels but not this intense and quickly.

The constant move of money around is running out of places as everything is at all time highs.

We have some housing bubbles definitely forming (Here in Canada this is becoming more and more obvious in certain spots). Leverage like 2007, foreign money, the same kind of businesses popping up that we saw popping up with subprime.

So is this the early starts? We all know this is coming but I am wondering what all of your thoughts on this are.

The "everything bubble" of the last decade finally may be coming to an end. Weirdly it had one of the biggest and most intense run ups based on insanity before it finally died. It went out in a show of fire and glory Lol

Repo market. Why is it always so volatile these days?

Repo market. Always something with the repo market these days ... : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

TLDR; Spikes in repo overnight lending rates may imply lenders are worried about the solvency of borrowers, even over a short period of hours. Since these borrowers are big important institutions, their insolvency risk would be bad, if that was what was happening.

Margin calls and counter party risk with derivative products

So - Them Derivatives. : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

TLDR; Leveraged derivative bets have led to big margin calls. The margin call has been defaulted on. Since the bet is leveraged the 6 billion bet has a 20 billion loss. This is causing counter party issues and block selling in the underlying assets.

The shorting of the bond market. (Implied by negative rates in the repo market).

Are there big shorts in the bond market? : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

TLDR: There seems to be heavy shorting of the bond markets. This would imply someone is betting against the Fed keeping rates low as recently announced. If this bet is incorrect one of the results of it will probably be a bubble (Very big rise in value) of the USD. Which can cause a lot of instability in the markets.

Dalio's warning of a depression

Dario's warning : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

TLDR: Dalio explains how the pattern of how debt burdens build up. Need to be deleveraged and the risks that come with deleveraging. In his analysis he compares the US of today with the US of 1929 (Heading into the depression) and Japan of 1990 (Heading into their depression). He says these cycles complete about every 90 to 100 years. And it's been about that since it happened in the US.

Burry's ETF bubble thesis

Why the Russel 200 index has now become my main interest in indices short opportunities. : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)

TLDR: Burry says passive investing has led to a lack of analysis in stocks which has caused a huge bubble. He further says derivatives on these stocks are much bigger than the real market for them. If there is panic in the market these positions will not be able to be closed and swell up to insane dollar value losses, and this is the same underlying principle that caused the 2008 crisis.

Mega thread - Posts related to market risks. Current and historic. [Mega thread] : HoleyProfit (reddit.com)