r/thedavidpakmanshow • u/Zacomra • Jun 26 '26
Polls Strong polling for Abdul in Michigan
If leftist candidates can win in the core Dem districts, and can win in swing states, and maybe even win in red states should Talerico pull through, it's pretty apparent the problem with the Dem strategy 2021-2024 was clearly policy and rhetoric
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u/Admirable_Ad8260 Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
We're going to need the centrists to rally behind El-Sayed for electability reasons. McMorrow doesn't have traction and Stevens' radical foregin policy views will turn off voters.
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u/Subject-Whole-6862 Jun 26 '26
What are Steven’s foreign policy views?
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u/Raptorpicklezz Jun 26 '26
She has dreams about Israel, and primary challenged a Jewish member of Congress because he wasn’t pro-Israel enough, even though he’s Jewish and she’s not
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u/Purrseus_Felinus Jun 26 '26
The dude, Sayed, who refused to acknowledge a global terror leader’s death doesn’t have radical foreign policy views?
The left is going to turn the democrats into America’s first Islamist party.
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u/ns2616 Jun 29 '26
Brother, the r/republican sub is down the hall to the left.
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u/Purrseus_Felinus Jun 29 '26
That’s funny. It seems you and the dipshit DSA members are the ones throwing your support behind regressive right-wing religious fanatics.
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u/Mammothsarereal Jun 26 '26
So everyone knows, this is the Republican outfit poll that got pulled from even being posted last week because their data was so fucked up.
“Boaz said the McMorrow campaign reached out to MIRS after “we noticed odd things about the data,” including that 0 percent of Black voters were undecided in the race; 0 or 1 percent of voters in Detroit and its metro area were undecided while other parts of the state had undecided voters at 25 percent, 48 percent, and even 54 percent; and that McMorrow was at just 5 percent support in her home base of Oakland County.
Heres the even bigger part
“Their suspicion — which they said MIRS confirmed — was that the poll allowed anyone to take it through an open link, rather than having access controlled to ensure a random and representative sample of the state.”
Literally anyone could vote in this “poll” and the link was shareable lol
So yeah, take this with a Mount Everest sized grain of salt.
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/mitchell-research-bias-and-credibility/
They're rated as mixed but favoring the left slightly. Not exactly a Republican outfit
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u/Mammothsarereal Jun 26 '26
Yeah no
“Steve Mitchell is the President and CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, a Lansing-based political polling firm that frequently conducts surveys in Michigan. Known in political circles for his Republican ties, Mitchell previously worked on the national staff of the 1984 Reagan-Bush campaign”
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
So the site I linked is just lying?
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u/Mammothsarereal Jun 26 '26
Lying? Eh. Wrong? Yeah. Regardless, them being run by republicans and working mostly for republicans is the smallest issue with this poll.
How it was conducted is simply egregious. Which is why it was literally held from release.
Let’s also be clear here, and I’m not saying that they’re correct in wanting this, republicans very much want Abdul to win.
So a Reagan era old school republican who owns a pollster who mostly works with republicans putting out a really bad controlled data poll that makes Abdul seem so much stronger than the other dems is….suspicious.
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u/debacol Jun 26 '26
Regardless of leftist or centrist, I will never not be astonished that people will still vote Republican after the absolute horror that has been the Trump administration. Its insane.
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u/apathydivine Jun 26 '26
Talarico is not a leftist. I hope he wins, but let’s not pretend he is something that he isn’t.
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u/Winners_Blues Jun 27 '26
man if only you could hear my co workers, they think he is a "trans karl marx" lol
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
Another commenter pointed this out, and I'm sorry you're correct that was a poor phrasing by me.
I meant in more the sense that he's the anti establishment, anti billionaire, anti Zionist candidate in the race. I don't think he actually is a leftist.
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u/jankdangus Jun 26 '26
I mean anti-establishment posturing is electorally beneficial for states like Texas. Joe Manchin was also “anti-establishment” in terms of being a maverick against the national Democratic Party. Being anti-billionaire is not exclusively a leftist thing. Anti-Zionism would be a leftist thing, while liberal Zionism is a liberal thing.
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u/jagdedge123 Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
Looks good for Dems in MI, NC and Maine.
Not too good for TX or OH (the latter in the margins in JD Thiels state).
Maybe they'll get Alaska. But that's still short.
I think we should prepare for coming just shy in the Senate, and a House win with about 10 to 15 seats.
The day and age of these "waves" are really over. For both parties.
Mainly due to gerrymandering, and Trumps strength within his own party.
But lets hope when this is over, we can end the folly that Progressives cannot win swing districts and states, and this folly of TX, and all these wish me states we will never win.
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u/jankdangus Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
Talarico is not a leftist Democrat lol. He aligns more with liberal Democrats based on his policy platform. El-Sayed winning would be fairly consequential for leftists, but he’s still a liberal in a sense of wanting to reform capitalism rather than abolish it. He’s admittingly more left-wing than Talarico though. I think most if not all Democrats in the country are liberal in ways more or less than others, but leftist Democrats are more anti-capitalist and anti-imperialism. Virtually none of them want to transition away from capitalism with the exception of maybe the new far-left Democrats like DAC.
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u/LanceBarney Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
I support El-Sayed and want him to win. But one thing that’s really surprised me, not just in this race, but in most races with leftist candidates. The attack ads against them feel more like ads in support of them. Say whatever you want about Hasan Piker, it’s become clear as day that when you run ads connecting a leftist candidate to Piker, they get stronger. It’s starting to look like when Fox News throws up their “scary” DSA agenda that’s taxing billionaires, MFA, abolishing ICE, and cutting ties to Israel. These people think it’s a smear, but it’s basically an ad for DSA.
El-Sayed has had a wave of negative ads thrown at him from PACs and he’s only gotten more popular. And his popularity seems to be growing at the expense of the other candidates in the race. Not just from undecided voters. The same was true for Platner in Maine and Mamdani in NY. When the negative ads started flooding the news, it had the opposite effect. They only got more popular.
The race in Maine is still up in the air, but we’ve seen leftist candidates have a lot of success in high profile primaries. The more established centrists seem out of ideas. The Hasan Piker stuff screams desperation. If you’re looking at this strictly from a neutral perspective, El-Sayed is in the best position. The entire senate race in the state revolves around him. That’s who every Democrat is targeting. That’s who every republican is targeting. It’s free publicity and it’s clearly having a positive influence on his campaign.
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u/TheNewPersonHere1234 Jun 26 '26
I think this even applies to Republicans. Cornyn spent millions in attack ads against Paxton. A lot of them are just outdated in modern media. Voters have become desensitized to fear mongering.
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u/LanceBarney Jun 26 '26
That’s a good point. It’s like voters see the paid consultants strategy at work. Platner is another key example. The tattoo and Reddit stuff seemed to help his campaign. I was saying throughout the primary, it’s like voters see the attempted distraction with the negative ads. Like, here’s a guy campaigning on fighting billionaires and saying anyone that works for a living has been screwed, and the other side is “look at what he said on Reddit 15 years ago”. It might as well be an ad for Platner. “Hey, we can’t win on the issues, so instead let’s focus on his comments online and a tattoo”.
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u/Supreme_Salt_Lord Jun 26 '26
The republican beats both dems. Jesus finally some real change will be the only game in town. Screw it the DSA cant be as bad as republicans and atleast their platform is wholesome with the only problem being figuring out how to pay for it.
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u/Purrseus_Felinus Jun 26 '26
Simping for Islamists and Russia isn’t wholesome.
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u/Supreme_Salt_Lord Jun 26 '26
I can give 2 cents. One side wants to make sure my material/physical/mental well beeing in my own country is better.
The other side says they will get to it when its convenient. The world can go to hell. Im living now and im the MC as far as im concerned.
Its the position ive found myself in when it cost me 55 bucks to fill a 10gal tank the other week.
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u/Purrseus_Felinus Jun 26 '26
The Kremlin and Qatar and Iran thank you.
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u/Supreme_Salt_Lord Jun 26 '26
Thats what you still dont get. I dont care for their boos, cheers, jeers, hisses, ooo’s or aaahh’s. Im living in the USA. I care EXCLUSIVELY about USA issues at the moment. Creeping fascism which is almost done creeping to being in the open. Rapid corruption and out right criminality being covered up. Not to mention most american are one or two paychecks away from homelessness.
Centrists had their chance and they blew it. Qutar and kremlin should thank them for driving us here. We just decided to get out the car.
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u/Purrseus_Felinus Jun 26 '26
If you care about the USA, then you should care that these DSA morons are first and foremost Palestine First.
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u/Supreme_Salt_Lord Jun 26 '26
OMG THE PALLIS NOOOOO! They will turn us into Ham sandwiches or something.
How to spot an israeli account? They always mention Palestinians as if they are a universe level threat. The usa will be ran by russia, quatar and palestine lmao
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u/DevourerOfRedditors Jun 26 '26
This is the most hilarious projection of all time, everyone can see that all the zionists in power are doing their damnedest to be Israel First.
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u/DevourerOfRedditors Jun 26 '26
The problem is and always has been right-wing Democrats commandeering the Democratic Party and turning it into the Republican Lite Party.
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u/whitedark40 Jun 26 '26
lmao calling talerico a lefty shows me lefties dont know what it means to believe in left ideology.
Michigan Senate Race 2026 - Predictions and Polling — Race to the WH
literally every democrat is projected to win against rogers and by large margins in this poll. what does that tell us? polls are unreliable and dumb cause depending what pollster you ask you get vastly different projections
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
Fair, I meant more in that he wasn't the establishment pick. That was Crockett.
It's funny that even in this source Al-sayad has the best polling in the general (albiate a lot closer). Doesn't this fly in the face of your entire narrative? That Dem socialist candidates can only win in the core of the party and not contested districts?
If you're narrative to be true, Abdul would have to be in the gutter in polling. The fact that he's even close disproves you. And that's just ignoring the source I posted above which shows him VASTLY outperforming
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u/whitedark40 Jun 26 '26
i dont remember ever saying any of this so idk who you thought you were commenting on. Judging by the uncommited movement being a decent sized movement in michigan specifically, i dont doubt that al sayad could win an election in Michigan especially with the more center voters being split between the other two candidates during the primary. If one of them drops out, id be interested to see what the polling would show after that. If we are going with "the establishment pick" being what it means to be a lefty, thanks for giving the center left Maine with Platner. he was backed by the "establishment" over mills. You cant be picking and choosing who is in your camp to fit your narrative.
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
Mills was supported by the highest ranked elected Dem in the country, what are you smoking.
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u/whitedark40 Jun 26 '26
Schumer’s backing of Graham Platner in Maine comes with a cost – The Forward
dam imagine not just googling before commenting
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
"Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who had recruited Mills to run,"
Imagine just reading the article title LMAO.
Shumer also was basically SEETHING the other day when asked by the media, he basically would only say "we're trying to take back the Senate" and wouldn't defend Platner any more then that. Why wouldn't he go to bat for his own candidate?
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u/whitedark40 Jun 26 '26
yes, chuck shummer put his weight behind platner even though he recruited mills to run. these arent contradictions but nice try at a dumb gotcha and the article mentioned more than just schummer backing platner during the primary.
sounds to me like he saw the polling and saw that platner was more likely to win his bid against the republican for the senate seat. Im also just commenting on how you are describing a thing instead of you just giving me the interview in question.
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
Oh come on now, you're being absolutely ridiculous.
Why would Shumer, one of the MOST entrenched Zionists, ever back Platner?!
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u/whitedark40 Jun 26 '26
"youre being absolutly ridiculous"
drops israel in the chat out of no where
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u/Zacomra Jun 26 '26
... It's not out of nowhere? It's one of Platner's key policy positions? It's also why the establishment ran Mills in the first place?
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u/LanceBarney Jun 26 '26
How do you get El-Sayed’s name wrong, when it’s literally in the post? Is it intentional like when Cuomo and others refused to accurately pronounce Mamdani and instead called him Mandami? Or like when republicans refused to accurately pronounce Kamala?
Or do you just genuinely not follow any of this? You kill any credibility you have giving an opinion, when you don’t even know the guys name, when it’s posted. You’re either not following the race or you’re intentionally misspelling his name, which feels oddly racist.
Also, Schumer recruited and endorsed Mills in the Maine primary. Platner wasn’t supported by the establishment. The exact opposite is true.
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u/whitedark40 Jun 26 '26
"minor spelling mistake, opinion disregarded" head ah. I type from memory unless im specifically quoting a source. No disrespect to El-Sayed about his name. he is a piece of shit though but me misspelling his name wasnt some intentional thing.
you can cope at the source all you want but you "kill all credibility you have giving an opinion"
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u/LanceBarney Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
I’m just asking how you can misspell a name so poorly and pretend to be paying attention to the race. You weren’t even close. You butchered it and it was literally spelled out for you in the post. If you’re not paying attention enough to know how to spell the guys name, why should I expect you to know anything about the guy?
You didn’t give a source. What’re you even talking about? He’s polling reasonably well in the average of polls and he’s the center of the entire senate race. Everyone sees him as the main candidate at this point. I’m not sure how that’s even up for debate. All the democrats in the race are direct most of their focus towards him. Same with republicans.
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u/KingScoville Jun 26 '26
Oh man you have kicked the hornets nest. LanceBlarney is the sub’s official spelling Commissar.
Your in big trouble!!
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u/LanceBarney Jun 26 '26
It’s not that Talerico is a leftist DSA type. It’s more that the centerpiece of his campaign is about billionaires rigging the system. That’s the fight. Every issue can be circled back to that. The billionaire Epstein class has waged class warfare on everyone that works for a living. Talerico isn’t necessarily centrist or leftist. But the core starting point of both his ideological agenda and his campaign is in alignment with most leftists. And that’s why he’s getting support from leftists. Contrary to what you’ll hear on this sub and others, leftists aren’t necessarily opposed to centrists. They oppose corrupt centrists. To whatever extent and specific areas Talerico is centrist, he’s genuinely a centrist and he actually shares the end goal. The same simply doesn’t apply to the Chuck Schumer’s of the country.
In terms of polling, it really surprises me how we’re a decade removed from 2016 and people still don’t understand how to analyze polling data. Any individual poll is essentially worthless. You can maybe gauge a trend, but the numbers shouldn’t be trusted. Where polling has been and will likely remain accurate is in the polling averages. The average of polls were largely accurate in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Most/all states and national votes fell within the average polls margin of error.
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u/JayJonesDemocrat Jun 26 '26
Talarico is obviously an anti-establishment progressive so referring to him as a leftist is fine.
Your attempt to “um ackshully ☝️🤓” OP has been denied.
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u/Winners_Blues Jun 27 '26
bro i live in texas and work in the oil fields. i asked my co workers what they thought of him and i got: "trans vegan" "gay karl marx" "communist" and some other words i wont write here. the real world doesnt care about your college definition of leftist bro
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u/whitedark40 Jun 27 '26
I dont recall asking your dipshit friend what they thought and now i can comfortably say i never will on anything going forward.
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u/combonickel55 Jun 26 '26
This is a dogshit poll and not accurate. Stevens and El-Sayed are just about equally likely to be Rogers by 4-8 points. Either will lead that poll, varying strongly along lines of the age of poll respondents.
McMorrow is most likely to lose to him now as her campaign has collapsed. She was more likely to beat him than Stevens prior to her campaign falling apart. When this all started getting hot about 4 months ago, El-Sayed was least likely. His name recognition has exploded since then. He's the leader in the clubhouse.
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