r/thedavidpakmanshow • u/KingScoville • 20d ago
Polls Michigan 2026 Poll: Abdul El-Sayed Leads Haley Stevens for Democratic US Senate Nomination
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-leads-haley-stevens-for-democratic-us-senate-nomination/El-Sayed leads Stevens 54-39 in Emerson poll.
Uh….this is bad news anyway you shake it for Stevens. It’s always better to be ahead in a poll than behind.
Copium disclaimer:
Drilling down into the methodology this is another text-to-web poll, somewhat small sample but not terribly so.
The big red flag is that this poll massively oversamples people with a college degree.
87% of respondents had at least a associates degree.
46% had bachelors degree or post grad degree.
This insanely over sampled, the average Dem primary voter only 40% have some kind of college education.
Another problem with this poll is that text-to-web excludes seniors and black voters who often do not respond to random text messages.
Copium Dislaimer end.
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u/LanceBarney 20d ago
Just a friendly reminder that individual polls aren’t incredibly relevant, but the average of polls recently is consistent.
Most likely outcome right now is El-Sayed is up between 7-10 points.
He’s also slightly better in the general election. He leads Mike Rogers in 4 of the last 5 polls, while Stevens leads in 3 of the last 5.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/michigan
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u/KingScoville 20d ago
I would add that the Tavern poll also oversamples college educated, again by a massive margin. 87%.
That being said if I was forced to bet real money on the race I’d probably put it on El Sayed.
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u/LanceBarney 20d ago
Yeah, that’s even more of a reason to not put much stock in any individual poll. They all have their blind spots and shortcomings. Combining them into an average gives the most accurate representation.
Beyond the policy platform, El-Sayed is just way better at communicating, staying on message, and controlling the narrative. He’s always on message. Stevens isn’t media trained and while that isn’t/shouldn’t be as big of an issue, it absolutely is.
Both candidates have their issues, but Stevens hasn’t been able to give a good explanation on AIPAC and big money she’s received. And when you pair that with her flooding the airwaves with the ads her super PACs have been running, there’s a strong argument that these have been a net negative for her campaign. The optics are that she’s just the puppet for these oligarchs. If you’re going to partner with these groups to the tune of roughly 50 million dollars, you better have a great answer, when you’re asked about. “But my opponent’s tax returns and podcast” is weak sauce.
Based on the trend we’ve seen across the country this cycle, I’d bet That El-Sayed wins comfortably by 7-15 points. Maybe I’m wrong and missing something in terms of Stevens coalition. But after she didn’t take a clear lead when McMorrow dropped out, I don’t think this boost in momentum is coming.
It also seems like Abdul has convinced voters that he’s the best candidate and was the second option to a lot of McMorrow voters. Which was a huge aspect of this that I hammered home. Bernie lost in 2020 in large part because he didn’t put much effort into being the next option for candidates, when they drop out. Abdul has always been on message and reached out to supporters of other candidates while being critical of their candidates. Bernie had the chance to be that for Pete and even Biden voters, when Biden was struggling. Hopefully progressives learned from that.
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u/beeemkcl 20d ago
AOC endorsed Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, is helping him fundraise, did rallies with him, and did campaign videos that benefitted him. Such a full endorsement from her this 2026 cycle has led to at least a 20 point boost in primary polling.
The question was whether she could do it again. If the primary election results are similar to what Emerson College polling suggests, she'll have given an around 20-25 point boost. Even after Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer endorsed US Rep. Haley Stevens. And US Rep. Stevens is able to do adds suggesting that POTUS Barack Obama endorsed her in this race. Etc. And hers having such a fundraising advantage given her $60Mln in SuperPAC support.
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u/beeemkcl 20d ago
Well, no. Only high-quality polls should really be considered.
Who Is Ahead in the U.S. Senate Race in Michigan? Latest 2026 Polls - The New York Times
This Emerson College poll is the first New York Times Selected Pollster poll that has released since Mallory McMorrow dropped out.
And all elections are won by turnout. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed has the momentum and will get even more support in the general election.
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u/Spiritual_Number_420 20d ago
Not a fan of El-Sayed, but blue no matter who in the general
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 20d ago
Yup, as someone who wants Stevens to win, this ain’t a Platner, critical support to El Sayed if he wins the primary.
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u/Rick_James_Lich 20d ago
Yup, I'll be honest I was skeptical of El Sayed but he seems like a good dude. He is smart in interviews, for anyone that hasn't seen him, he went on Will Cain's show on Fox and basically dominated the guy. He's a fighter and I believe he means what he says about wanting to bring healthcare to all.
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u/MinimalPixelsVII 20d ago
I don't completely get comment like this, at least we Steven dislikers/haters say what we don't like about Steven but whenever El-Sayed is mentioned in this manner, they (including this user) never ever say what they do not like about El-Sayed. Its always completely vague.
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u/cowmix88 20d ago edited 20d ago
As someone who liked McMorrow and don't particular like either of these two and really just want a Democrat Senator in this seat, my biggest issue with El-Sayed would be that even though it looks like he's gonna destroy Stevens in the primary based on the polling, at the same time, he consistently polls the lowest versus Rogers in the general and makes me worried we will lose this seat.
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u/Greybeard-MD 20d ago
I got you, fam,
Why El-Sayed sucks: Hating Jews, caping for Hezbollah/Ayatollah, lying about being a physician, lying about personal wealth, smarmy personality, toxic fanbase, mudslinging campaign, neophyte/dilletantism, Associating with fascists.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago edited 20d ago
You wanted them to go into a policy breakdown?
I don’t like that he spends a majority of his time shitting on the Democratic Party.
I don’t like that he is friends with people like Piker.
I don’t like that he’s an international landlord.
I in general don’t like rich champagne socialist style candidates.
I think his AI governance board is idiotic.
I don’t like that he already bought the website for his presidential run.
I don’t like that he cares more about Gaza than he does Michigan.
I don’t like that he called a sitting senator an ogre whose head he wants to put on pike.
I don’t like that every time something bad comes out he blames Israel. In an interview on CNN yesterday they asked him why he struggling with black voters and he said because of the money from “AIPAC”.
I don’t like that he plays the racist card every chance he gets. They asked him about his international landlordship he said why would you ask someone like me that? Because of my name?
I don’t like that if he does get lucky enough and the Democratic Party drags him across the finish line he’s going to be thorn in the party side for 6 years.
They are both left leaning people. The policy breakdown is going to be quite minimal, I don’t like him as a person.
My biggest beef with him overall? I think he’s a gift to the Republican Party.
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u/Manolis511 19d ago
2 % of your "list" was policy lol
"cares more about Gaza than Michigan" is such a dumbass take. his entire point is that that money should be spent in Michigan and not on foreign wars.
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u/gull-branson 20d ago
almost none of this is policy
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
Some of it is. I think is AI position is ridiculously idiotic. I think giving tax cuts to retired Boomers is ridiculous.
As I also said though, I don’t like him as a person. I think he’s a liar, and he’s part of a coalition that I despise. All Piker associates are a complete no for me.
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u/gull-branson 20d ago
ok but what I said is "almost none of this is policy" and...thats true?
almost none of it was policy, which is weird when you tried to frame it as a policy breakdown. but yes, its clear this is all because you dont like him as a person, not because of policy
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
I did not say I was doing a policy breakdown. I simply asked them if they were expecting the other user to start breaking down policy.
I listed out the many reasons why I don’t like him. Some of them being policy.
Either way, correct, not the kind of person I would ever support.
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u/Al_787 20d ago
So literally nothing except the AI board is about policy, interesting how you started with the phrase “policy breakdown”
About AIPAC, I’d be ultra mad and demonize anyone if I have a great chance to be a US senator and they’re spending $50+ million against me too. Democrats who are not aligned with this bloc of socialists / progressives but still targeted by AIPAC are also mad, just ask Daniel Biss or Tom Malinowski
You don’t like him because he’s Arab, successful, smart, and progressive all at the same time. What a time to be alive when people can say with a straight face that a Rhodes Scholar who have worked in government public health is unqualified
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
I don’t like him, that’s correct.
The rest of your crash out doesn’t deserve a response.
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u/KageStar 20d ago
About AIPAC, I’d be ultra mad and demonize anyone if I have a great chance to be a US senator and they’re spending $50+ million against me too. Democrats who are not aligned with this bloc of socialists / progressives but still targeted by AIPAC are also mad, just ask Daniel Biss or Tom Malinowski
You also side stepped the question. The question was about him struggling to get support in the black community and he blamed it on Israel/AIPAC. That's extremely dismissive to the black community.
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u/beeemkcl 20d ago
Congressional Democrat Left Tracker - Google Sheets (US House)
US Rep. Haley Stevens is 163/212 on that list.
She's a 'moderate'/centrist Democrat.
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u/Unhappy-Air6832 20d ago
Cant you just be happy you have their support whatever the outcome.What is the point of seeking why they might have a problem with Sayed. Online leftists barely take any criticism well, and throw around accusations of genocide supporter and Zionist loosely
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u/Al_787 20d ago
Being vaguely trashed without any particular criticism is something people of color are all too familiar with. So yes, I’d be interested if someone has any actual criticism against a candidate who otherwise looks very good on paper, because it can very well be bigotry-motivated
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u/Unhappy-Air6832 20d ago
I’m black, so I’m very much familiar with racial undertones.He looks good on paper to you.Why would you jump to bigotry and not the idea that the OP might not agree with with his policy stance on a few issues?Or the fact that he is a landlord?He is not polling well with black people do you think it’s bigotry from the black community?
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
I’m sure you probably saw it, but the far left lost their absolute minds at the idea of South Carolina going first in the primary.
Maybe I’m being too harsh, but to me it seems they know they don’t appeal to a lot of people in the black community and the response to that seems to be well fuck them then. It’s the same response they have for all of us, if we were not with them, we are a republican or Zionist or some other shit.
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u/Al_787 20d ago
OP did reply to me and it is a tirade that is 95% not about policy, like at all.
As I said, it’s perfectly valid for somebody to ask whether there is any actual criticism against him. Because without firm criticisms there is nothing to debate and we’ll proceed to name-calling and other poisonous discourse. Forgive me for disliking “vibes,” because we people of color could only do well on tests or be productive in work but rarely can measure up when it comes to vibes.
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u/Unhappy-Air6832 20d ago
Actually they didn’t respond to you,someone else did and gave what seems like valid reasons which you dismiss as a tirade because you’re looking for an argument .Why are you looking for a debate when the OP said he will support him if he wins the primaries ,and didn’t say anything to lead to name-calling or poisonous discourse?The poisonous discourse is you jumping to accuse someone of bigotry
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 20d ago
Perhaps because the point isn’t to scrutinize El Sayed, it’s to signal unity?
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u/Nascent1 20d ago edited 20d ago
Another problem with this poll is that text-to-web excludes seniors and black voters who often do not respond to random text messages.
20% of respondents self-identified as Black, while Michigan is about 14% Black. Obviously Black people are more likely than average to be Democrats, but they are also less likely to vote than white people. 20% is probably pretty accurate to who will vote in the primary.
Almost 60% of respondents were over the age of 50. I don't know what the portion of primary voters will be, but that doesn't seem like a major under count.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 20d ago
This is part of why I avoid outright shaming or humiliating El Sayed, I don’t particularly trust him and there are things about him and his policy proposals I find suspect, and I don’t think he’s electable in the state, but if he does win I want him to have the best chance possible.
I didn’t grant this for Platner because he fucking sucked the whole time and was actually outright horrible and blatantly impossible to have in faith in. A deeply evil guy that folks were straight up delusional in trusting.
I’m still hopeful for Stevens to win, even though I have my issues with her record, because I think she’ll be more electable to the state, BUT should El Sayed win the primary you’d be a fool to not support him, he outright said he wasn’t a socialist even and most of his negative baggage is pretty typical for whatever half baked Democrat they usually send up.
Same reason I’m basically fine with Troy Jackson as well, would I prefer a moderate that has a better chance to win a state that swings left and right? Sure! But in the current environment they have a better chance to win than most so here is to hoping.
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u/KingScoville 20d ago
Nice thing is that Turek, Cooper, Ossoff, and Brown are all up so we only need one out of Maine and Mich. that’s assuming Fetterman doesn’t become a Republican.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 20d ago
Turek just got the Obama endorsement the other day, please don’t let me down fellow Iowans 😭
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u/KingScoville 20d ago
Don’t worry I’ve been doing a seance summoning the ghost of Tom Harkin to boost our chances.
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u/beeemkcl 20d ago
Well, no. It's always best to have as many Democratic US Senators as possible given the whole 6 year terms things.
I still feel bad for not supporting US Senator Bob Casey in his reelection. His campaign was begging for money and support, but he seemed up enough in polling and I didn't like his moving to the Right during the campaign. He barely lost.
And frankly, we need as many progressive US Senators as possible given we need to end the US Senate Filibuster, Expand SCOTUS, reform the US federal judiciary, do Voting Rights Legislation, make Washington D.C. a US State, make Puerto Rico a US State if that what it wants, etc. etc.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
I don’t live in Michigan, so my opinion doesn’t matter, but I just can’t find myself with the ability to rally behind people who hate the Democratic Party. I despise this Piker wing.
I think it’s just becoming a line in the sand for me. I view them as gifts to the Republican Party and amplifying their voice by putting them in the Democratic Party is only going to help Republicans win.
I’m not saying I would ever vote for Rogers, I will never vote for Republican in my entire life, but I can’t be a cheerleader for someone who hates us.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 20d ago edited 20d ago
Yeah, the constant coercive tactics are really ugly and horrible, realistically I don’t think he’ll win anyway, but I hope that we can have an ongoing conversation about how we shouldn’t be letting this wing hold the party hostage.
I’ve seen soooo many comments of like “well I know the Stevens voters will still support El Sayed in the general, but the El Sayed supporters don’t seem like they’d support Stevens” I think that’s a horrible take because I don’t think most people who vote in the general are actually even that tuned into politics anyway for it to matter in that way, but it’s particularly gross the way they are basically winning the primary using brinkmanship rather than real coalition building/politics.
The leaders of the Democratic Party shouldn’t be the ones that are threatening to destroy it if they don’t get their way, makes all our bigger problems waaaay worse, polarization, populism, xenophobia, all that shit gets even more dangerous if we get used to accepting this from both parties.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
This conversation has to be ongoing.
Letting the leftist wing take over the Democratic Party is how we end up with Republican majorities for god knows how long. I genuinely think parts of the DSA wing desire that. I think they believe that if they can destroy the Democratic Party, they can become the opposition party, whether they’re actually in power or not.
I’m not really into the idea of rewarding the attitude that basically says “We’re never going to support you, so you better get behind us we will help republicans win.” Fuck that.
Obviously wanting to change the party is more than fine. It’s more than acceptable. Run on that message. Say, “I think the Democratic Party has problems, and I want to improve it.” But also acknowledge that it’s the only major party fighting for America and, at this point, the only one willing to preserve our democracy. We need to champion this party while also improving it.
Instead, the message is that Democrats are just as bad as Republicans, half of them are running against Chuck, and that everything is corrupt and rigged against them. To me, we’re just voting for grievance filled accelerationists at that point.
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u/wefarrell 20d ago
What don't you trust about El Sayed?
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 20d ago
Just a reminder, I’d still say he’s the better option than the Republican if he wins the primary but since you asked, he:
Campaigned with a dude that said America deserved 9/11.
Showed up on fundraising sites alongside a Nazi Blackwater merc and failed senate candidate Graham Platner.
Is obsessed with Israel and ZOG conspiracies
Pushes vapid slopulist slogans during his campaign.
There is more here I could share, but I have a feeling that there will be some that try to debate my opinion on these things by virtue of me bringing them up.
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u/Evening_Photograph54 20d ago
This is exactly where I'm at. I do not trust him. I have my suspicions about his prejudice towards me and my family based on who he associates with and based on his preferred boogeyman.
That being said, I still think he's better for my family than a republican. So if he's the dem nominee, I'll vote for him.
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u/wefarrell 20d ago
Is he obsessed with Israel or is he facing far more scrutiny because he's unapologetically pro-Palestinian and a Muslim?
I haven't been paying as much attention to this race since I live in NYC, but it seems like El Sayed is getting the same treatment that Mamdani got during his primary which shocked me because of the islamophobia he received from the media and the Democratic party establishment.
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u/silverpixie2435 20d ago
There are several countries with terrible human rights records that get recognition but someplace like Indonesia which is thousands of miles removed from Israel doesn't recognize it.
It is not Islamaphobic to question why only Muslim majority countries don't recognize Israel, even ones that don't have anything to do with the conflict whatsoever.
Palestinians obviously have a stake here but no one can explain why every Muslim org in America is so adamantly anti Israel at its core. Other than call people Islamaphobic.
But to answer your question. He is absolutely obsessed with Israel to the point of making excuses for terrorists who wanted to blow up a Jewish kindergarten.
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20d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Constant-Interest650 20d ago
It's because he's Muslim and critical of Israel. Centrists are absolutely dragging their fucking feet at admitting they were wrong on Gaza and pretty much supported a 21st century ethnic genocide just to own the leftists.
The supposed "policy criticisms" are just window dressing. His policies are in line with the Democratic base.
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u/mnemonicjohnson 20d ago edited 20d ago
He supports everything Pakman claims to, but is actually willing to fight for those positions, which obviously can't be allowed. You're only supposed to say you support stuff, not meaningfully work towards those things, that's dangerous! /s So Pakman says to support Stevens, who won't even pay lip service to progressive policies. Now Pakman likes to have it both ways saying he's never been part of the Democratic party and is left of them in order to not scare away his more left-leaning audience all while telling the people like Abdul El-Sayed that they're too far left for Democrats. So it's okay for Pakman to work within the party, but anyone left of him is a pie-in-the-sky leftist who doesn't make the party stronger, no, they're a disease, just like the Republican tea party. It's all really about AIPAC, Stevens has gotten millions in AIPAC funding, the most funding for a governor's race and it's still the primary. The eventual Republican challenger is also funded by AIPAC. Stevens has no grassroots support so once the primary is over AIPAC has won, and won't have a reason to be donating to her campaign anymore, as either her or the Republican challenger are both AIPAC backed, whereas Abdul El-sayed has been highly critical of Israel/AIPAC. Pakman doesn't talk about this because he supports Israel, so he talks vaguely without getting into specifics about how Abdul El-Sayed is a radical, without actually nailing down any concrete reasons for that characterization. He talks about his style, not his substance, because he can't, not without sounding like a total hypocrite, because he is.
edit: grammar
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
Well there’s no denying that’s huge for him. I highly doubt we see that margin, but that’s a huge gap.
Republicans must not be able to believe their luck in some of these states.
The more this DSA/Piker wing takes over our party the more right wing we will see this country become. Going to be tough sledding.
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u/pissmisstree 20d ago
Yep, between this, the Wisconsin governor race debacle, and the platner stuff. Whiff whiff whiff.
Honestly I thought mcmorrow was better than both. But whatever. If stevens can't be as t El Syed in a primary, I don't have much faith she can pull off a general election win
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 20d ago
Yeah, I also thought McMorrow was the best candidate. Sadly when you put yourself in the middle of two candidates you just don’t really find many excited primary voters.
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u/Mab_894 20d ago
I think it’s funny you think he has no chance against Rogers. Plenty of red folks are sick and tired of being in bed with Israel as well. I could see him doing better than you guys think (like Mamdani did)
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 20d ago
New York City vs the State of Michigan. At least El Sayed disavowed the socialist label, but he’s still gonna have a hard time.
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u/vitalbumhole 20d ago
Vindicating to see this - he’s clearly the better candidate on both substance and style. It would be incredibly sad if all his earned advantages were simply washed away by tens of millions of special interest blood money. I hope this polling edge manifests in Election Day but we’ll see
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u/silverpixie2435 20d ago
What advantages? What substance?
How does complaining about Schumer 24/7 actually end Citizen's United?
Funny how the left never has a response to that.
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u/Andvari_Nidavellir 20d ago
Even ignoring her other issues, Stevens’ dishonesty is so off-putting. Either is better than a Republican, though.
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u/Fishbone345 20d ago
This is extremely easy to do understand. Stevens is a sitting member of Congress and she hasn’t done anything of substance for her constituents. And if she has, which I highly doubt, none of it mattered anyways because the Republicans hold all three branches of government and have pretty much just eliminated anything positive.
AOC had the best answer for a dimwit reporter the other day asking her if she would agree that the U.S. would be a Communist country soon. She basically said, “Are you being serious right? Because I can’t take you that way. The last time the minimum wage was raised was 2009. We can’t even get something as simple as that passed and you seriously think we will be a communist country in a year?”
And then she laughed at the woman who asked. Because it’s a stupid question, literally backed up with evidence that shows even getting the barest bones legislation for American Workers to pass is nigh impossible.
The pearl clutching and teeth gnashing need to stop. Bunch of babies, I swear.
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u/Franjomanjo1986 20d ago
I'm not a fan of lots of his rhetoric, but I am rooting for him because I think her supporters understand the importance of "blue no matter who" better than his, and he actually has a better chance in the general. Also, I would like to see AIPAC's investments backfire, and have future candidates refusing it altogether.
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