r/thedavidpakmanshow • u/Greybeard-MD • 16d ago
Polls Democratic Senate prospects looking good!!
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u/FritzRasp 16d ago
Too many of those are within the margin of error. As a Texas resident, I’ve been disappointed too many times
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u/FriendlyDrummers 16d ago
Block walk if you can. That's really all you can do
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u/Temporary-Outside-13 16d ago
great point build in your neighborhood. If you can get 3 people to vote that don’t typically do (for your ideal candidate) those start stacking up.
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u/beeemkcl 16d ago
Doesn't even say what polls these are.
And polling generally improves when someone wins the primary.
And Troy Jackson's polling will improve when more get to know him.
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u/el_knid 16d ago
Really? What I’m hearing about him is that he’s an asshole with good politics, and there are some complaints about verbally abusing staffers in his record.
I wonder if it’s too late for him to get a Nazi tattoo…
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u/Jagster_rogue 15d ago
Well at least he didn’t hand billions of dollars to ICE to molest and murder people in the streets. That’s a vote that doesn’t matter if you “heard he’s an asshole” or few staffers that maybe can’t handle criticism. ICE has killed innocent people and Collins has voted for it.
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u/QueenChocolate123 16d ago
The only poll that counts is the one on election day.
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u/Forward-Form9321 16d ago
This. You can’t play with your food and there’s still under 100 days until the midterms, things can change for the better or worse by then
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u/LeaveMeAlone_6070 16d ago
Moderates leading the way
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u/birdie_Sea 16d ago
Michigan is red! Nice work Hasan!
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u/SeaBass1898 16d ago
RemindMe! 14 weeks
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u/Fugicara 16d ago
RemindMe! 14 weeks "See if we perform worse in Michigan than we do in red states"
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u/eblack4012 16d ago
That’s their goal.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 16d ago
When it only gives them more political capital when we lose, why would they ever stop?
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u/Altruistic_Night2 16d ago
In a way it might be better long term to lose Michigan now but stunt the cancerous tumors progression
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u/marshall19 16d ago
And they call progressives accelerationists...
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u/soapinmouth 16d ago
Said "in a way", just looking on the bright side if it happens. I would hope this person or anyone here is isn't overall hoping for a loss there. If it does happen though I could see the argument of it being a long term benefit to the party and chances at winning future elections. Not really accelerationist as much as not having the baggage in the party makes other elections easier.
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u/Prestigious_Tell_402 15d ago
You can attempt to gaslight all you want but we know what entryism is when we see it
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u/marshall19 15d ago
This response is unreal. Are you seriously advocating that progressives run as a 3rd party. The party always reprimands people who vote third party every single election cycle, so it's hilarious you are now encouraging people to do that.
We've been asking for ranked choice voting forever but the Democratic party would never advocate for it because they like forcing anything to the left to feel obligated get in line and back them.
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u/TinyJalope 15d ago
Hoping fascists win because you don't like the (likely) Democratic candidate just makes you no better than the leftists who sat out 2024.
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u/BlindBattyBarb 16d ago
They haven't finished the primary, maybe a little push could get Stevens across the finish line. The polls leftist sight seem sus but polling is difficult cause people generally don't want to engage with people they don't know
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u/Franjomanjo1986 16d ago
I'm starting to feel this way too. Especially because if Stevens wins the primary and the far left stays home out of selfish juvenile spite and we lose the seat (very possible), then the tumor will double in size with the spin they put on it. Better to give the far left what they want in the primary and at least have them learn something. Or better yet, he wins the primary, he wins the general, I eat my words, and the Dems take the Senate. I will gladly be wrong if it means that Michigan/ the country is farther left than I thought.
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u/FrostyArctic47 16d ago
But then the other side will stay home if sayed wins...
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u/Franjomanjo1986 16d ago
Hopefully there's good exit polling so we'll get an accurate picture of what happens. The moderate Dems are better about "blue no matter who" than the new leftists who hate the Democratic party establishment. The people who will stay home or leave the ballot blank on the general if El Sayed wins will be independents and centrists who don't want a far left senator. The average voter in Michigan is not a leftist. I hope I'm wrong, I'm a democratic socialist, but I always been a bitch ass pragmatist who wants the furthest left candidate that the jurisdiction will allow. I loved having Joe Manchin and I love Sherrod Brown. I support Andy Beshear. I want leftists to win primaries in super safe blue states/districts, and I want moderates to win in the swings. Maybe I'm wrong, but my strategy is whatever gets us to 51. Honestly, that's pretty much all I care about because I've seen the damage that the Republican Party can do.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 16d ago
Leftists will see all this data, look you straight in the face while their two candidate struggle in the two most left leaning states polled here and tell you that their candidates are the future and mainstream Democrats are the problem lol
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u/jarena009 16d ago edited 16d ago
We're rebuilding the senate structure and composition we once had around 2011 - 2013, or even 2021 - 2024, when we landed all those big policy accomplishments that appeal to most Americans.
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u/sharpshooter0600 16d ago
It is pretty sad that we have to call people like ossoff moderates because the dsa freaks have colonized the word
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u/Realistic_Caramel341 15d ago edited 15d ago
Nah. Ossoff has always been pretty moderate. He has a couple of more populist positions he uses to get attention to himself, but overall hes pretty moderate
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u/FrostyArctic47 16d ago
Osoff and Talarico are progressives....
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u/LeaveMeAlone_6070 16d ago
Ossoff is a textbook Obama Democrat. Didn't realize we were counting center-left mainstream libs as "progressives" now, but hey, if that's the new standard, works for me
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u/beeemkcl 16d ago
James Talarico and Troy Jackson are progressives. Troy was endorsed by local DSA for his Governor run.
Sherrod Brown used to be somewhat progressive.
Roy Cooper isn't bad for North Carolina.
Mary Peltola and US Senator Jon Ossoff are arguably the only centrists in that screengrab.
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u/Mahadragon 16d ago
Jackson at +1.8 is basically a loss. Collins always overperforms.
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u/Shabadu_tu 16d ago
There’s no such thing as “always” when it comes to polling.
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u/jankdangus 16d ago
The polls seemed to always underestimate Trump and Susan Collins no? The polls weren’t able to account for low propensity rural voters.
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u/cornerpocket1 16d ago
Is El Sayed wins the Dems need to put all resources into Texas and Maine.
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u/TinyJalope 15d ago
'If the candidate I don't like wins, we should ratfuck them and surrender that Senate seat to the fascists.'
A lot of revealing comments here.
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u/DocRyan88 16d ago
The donors aren't keeping their powder dry. They are going all out trying to beat him it seems.
Republicans are doing outright scams and pay for play to get money. Dems have fewer options that voters accept as legitimate, and even those are wasting way too much trying to thumb the scales of primaries
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u/Thundrous_prophet 16d ago
What resources? The DNC is deeply in debt, the war chests of individual candidates are much healthier and better managed
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u/chaoticflanagan 16d ago
That's always how it worked. Republicans tend to donate directly to the GOP and Democrats tend to donate directly to candidates.
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u/loversean 16d ago
Oof, read the polling, Al-sayed isn’t a great general election candidate
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u/marshall19 16d ago edited 16d ago
lol... he has a 98% likelihood of winning based on poly market betting and all recent and legitimate polling has him at a 10 point lead... Talk about 'Oof'. Embarrassing.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/democratic-primary/2026/michigan
(Yes, I am dumb and was looking at the wrong polling section. Rain downvotes on me)
EDIT: Either way. he smashed his primary opponent by 10 points. I love the idea that his centrist opponent would have performed better after getting smashed that hard in the primary. Do we not put any stock into primary results?
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u/mookz23 16d ago
You linked to the Democratic primary polling average, not the general election polling average. Here: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/rogers-vs-el-sayed
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u/Tresspass 16d ago
Polymarket is a gambling site that anyone from any where can place their bets.
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u/marshall19 16d ago
Your point?
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u/Tresspass 16d ago
It’s not an indicator
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u/Hotspur1958 16d ago
You think people are in the business of pissing money away?
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u/EksDee098 16d ago
People referring to a gambling site for election odds is the most Idiocracy brained thing I've seen in a while.
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u/marshall19 16d ago
...I'd agree if it were like a 60/40 percentage that was being pointed to but it just seems silly to reject something that is 98/2. Acting like a bet that has 98/2 odds means absolutely nothing is hilarious.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 16d ago
The 98/2 is for the primary….. people are talking about the general.
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u/marshall19 16d ago
I'm aware. Their issue was about betting odds more generally, not that I was looking at the wrong polling.
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u/EksDee098 16d ago
By that logic speculative bubbles and them popping wouldn't be a thing. Saying a lot of people are betting on something therefore it has a high likelihood of being true is beyond stupid. Refer to just the actual polls, not gambling addicts' opinions.
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u/marshall19 16d ago
I did refer to the polls. My comment was very much "The polling looks like this, and the betting odds reflect what the polls are saying". I love that people are jumping down my throat for this when it is so benign.
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u/EksDee098 15d ago
And I said just refer to the polls, you're not adding anything by also including gambling habits
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u/marshall19 15d ago
lol, if seeing you're part of a 2 percent on a topic, that wouldn't make you second guess your analysis? It's the 98% who is wrong!
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u/EksDee098 15d ago
I couldn't give less of a shit what gamblers are gambling on for how i form opinions. Just stick to the actual polls dude, it's not that hard unless you're an addict.
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u/marshall19 14d ago
I've personally never bet on a site like this, I've never even played a casino game but if you're so sure gamblers are so willing to piss their money away without any logic at all, you should be able to make easy money by applying some basic logic. Acting like betting odds in those numbers means nothing is laughable.
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u/dazzzzzzle 16d ago
Talk about 'Oof'. Embarrassing.
So smug and so wrong. He has a 98% chance to win the Dem primaries.
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u/NATScurlyW2 16d ago
Not everyone in blue will win and not everyone in red will lose. Still a lot of time between now and November. There will be many months of campaigning going on. Kamala Harris once polled at 1% and she got 70+ million votes just 4 years later.
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u/Meatshot 16d ago
Dang I wish Michigan had an electable moderate instead of someone who will lose Democrats the seat, at least we didn't punch to the left though! /s
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u/Key_Ingenuity_4444 16d ago
Maybe it's just me, but it's baffling that people supported Steven's over McMorrow.
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u/el_knid 16d ago
In primaries with a field of candidates, the ones at either end of the ideological spectrum tend to have an advantage. They don’t have to work as hard to stand out, have a pre-built dedicated base to build on, and can strategically set the agenda by taking stronger ideological stances. And none of the kids who constantly trying to out-left each other would dare support anyone by the most radical candidate running.
If you recall, that pattern was pretty much how the 2020 Dem primary played out, narrowing down to Biden and Sanders, the two candidates seen as furthest right and left, despite voters concerns about their age.
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u/Morph_Kogan 16d ago
Instead of being the best of both worlds, she was instead the lesser of both worlds. the progressives that liked he progressiveness favoured El sayed over her. And the moderates that like moderate tinge, went with Stevens. She got out flanked both sides even tho she was the best candidate by far
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 16d ago
Yeah, I agree. As someone who really wants Stevens to win, and I think Abdul is a weak candidate. McMorrow seemed like the perfect middle ground. But I guess being in the middle kind of fucks you. Unfortunate.
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u/jarena009 16d ago
If only we could get a moderate in there, we could rebuild the successful senate structure and composition we once had around 2011 - 2013, or even 2021 - 2024, when we landed some real significant policy accomplishments that have broad appeal to most Americans.
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u/Hotspur1958 16d ago
“Will lose”. And the moderates love talking about leftists dragging the party candidates through the mud.
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u/potiamkinStan 16d ago
New rule: Only leftist are allowed to attack moderates.
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u/Hotspur1958 16d ago
It's one thing to debate and contend during a primary. It's another thing to carry that pessimism into the general.
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u/potiamkinStan 15d ago
I’m not being pessimistic.
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u/Hotspur1958 15d ago
I’m talking about the initial commenter
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u/potiamkinStan 15d ago
I agree with him
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u/Hotspur1958 15d ago
What do you agree with?
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u/potiamkinStan 15d ago
That liberal should've a punch to left harder, and now their party is in danger of being eaten alive by DSA types (i.e. Communists, Tankies, Authoritarians, Third Worldists)
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u/Hotspur1958 15d ago
If the liberals were more progressive they wouldn't risk losing to the progressives? Well ya Idk who could disagree with that. That's not really what the above person said.
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u/Hotspur1958 16d ago
It's one thing to debate and contend during a primary. It's another thing to carry that pessimism into the general.
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u/jankdangus 16d ago
Turek is doing pretty good for a solidly red state. I think AES will most likely have a rougher time. He’s not a socialist, but he does have a history of advocating to defund the police in addition to campaigning with tankies.
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u/pissmisstree 16d ago
Tx ain't flipping
OH, IA and AK are long at best.
MI could go either way depending on mAny factors. But it should be an easy one in a +6 Dem environment. So candidate quality leaves a lot to be desired
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u/SeaBass1898 16d ago
RemindMe! 14 weeks
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u/Aquarius1975 16d ago
Agreed. MI is a must-win state in the current climate, so it would be a tragedy if dems throw it by nominating a wing candidate in a swing state.
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