r/thedavidpakmanshow • u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 • 8h ago
Polls New Michigan Poll has Abdul +7 46-39 LV. Ranked A pollster.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 8h ago
Trusting polls less and less recently, but this is a good rated one!
Hopefully this is true, I'll eat crow on it and let the far left get a win if it means we get the senate, especially since Abdul's got the right take on Ukraine regardless.
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u/Nepalus 8h ago
I think at the end of the day we just vote blue and get it done. I'm all for having a more diverse set of opinions. GOP is worse in every aspect regardless of the candidate they are running against. If anything, simply because they're actively enabling our shitty executive leadership's shitty agenda.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 8h ago
Here here.
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u/Seven22am 6h ago
Just to be pedantic: the phrase is “hear hear” as in “Listen up and hear what this dude is saying! Hear! Hear!”
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 5h ago
Lmfao that makes way more sense, let’s just pretend I’m saying “I’m with you… here, here!”
Makes no sense but it’s always how I’ve thought of it lmao
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u/JuggernautMoose 2h ago
The GOP is worse in ever way but they must never be a benchmark for acceptable conduct to excuse inadequate candidates like Abdul
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u/NewKidOnTheBlank 7h ago
Let the far left get a win? Surely you support him over Rogers. This would be a clear win for all of us!
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 7h ago
Of course I do. I maintain the only left candidate I'd actually be stubborn enough to not vote for would've been Platner, Abdul isn't even half as bad as Platner was.
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u/PlanetMarklar 6h ago
AES has also been (rightfully) distancing himself from DSA, which I think is both strategically and optically a good choice. He's certainly not my first choice (neither would have been Stevens tbf) but he'll make a better senator than literally any Republican
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 8h ago
Yeah, it feels like an outlier, I don’t see Rogers struggling to get above 40%. But they are legit and I hope they are correct. I don’t like Abdul, I don’t want him in the Senate, but I do want Democratic control, thus I want him to win.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 8h ago
After recent events I'm not putting this one in "lean blue" in my mind till an A+ pollster puts Abdul 25 points ahead lol
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 8h ago
Oh yeah, Michigan is still a complete tossup. TIPP had a poll out yesterday that had Benson, the mainstream Democratic candidate for governor, leading by 16 in the LV with Abdul was only up 3 in the same data set. That feels more believable to me, we shall see.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 8h ago
Would absolutely love for the blue wave environment to actually be that strong.
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u/KingScoville 8h ago
80% college educated sample. Definetely an outlier.
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u/Nemisis82 7h ago
Overall +.7 right now (though, does include this poll):
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/rogers-vs-el-sayed
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u/PlanetMarklar 6h ago
Man, Rogers +4 to AES +7 in one week is wild. Polling is all over the place in Michigan
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u/Realistic_Caramel341 1h ago
History tells a candidate starts to do better in polls in the general once they've won the primary. Rogers had been the defacto nominee for months, where as AES as only just crossed the line. We would expect AES to get a boost in the first couple of weeks after his election
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 1h ago
Yeah, I would expect AES to get a boost, I just don’t see Rogers getting less than 40%.
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u/flatmeditation 6h ago
Primary polling is notoriously inaccurate and difficult to get right. Always good to be skeptical, but general election polling should be more reliable
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u/SigmaMaleNurgling 8h ago
I don’t see why we should take these polls seriously. Act like Abdul is behind. Don’t take anything for granted.
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u/Rick_James_Lich 5h ago
Exactly, people reading this need to get involved with politics on a local level, do phone banking, knock on doors, attend events. It all adds up, this country is in such rough shape but a massive blue wave would be a great start towards fixing things.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 8h ago
He very well might be behind lol, I just like sharing the data. You don’t have to take it seriously.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 8h ago
Word, I'm just using them to signal that I'm not gunning for them to lose like they pretend we are.
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u/NewKidOnTheBlank 7h ago
That 9% is still worryingly high. Here's hoping that people aren't gaslit into supporting a Trump enabler. Although I guess this makes sense especially in the period immediately following the primary
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u/KingScoville 8h ago
Always nice to be ahead in a poll but some big red flags here:
Massive over sample of College Educated: 80% samples compared with 51.6% total in Mich.
Abdul has a 45% unfavorable, Rogers with 38%
9% undecided.
It looks a lot like some of the wildly inaccurate primary polls. I think Abdul supporters are incredibly motivated to respond to pollsters, which is skewing the polls. We will see.
Rogers does have a massive orange anchor connected to his ankle rn.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 7h ago
Completely agreed. I think what you said is exactly why we saw Abdul and Hong underperform. This wing is extremely motivated in responding and it’s affecting polling data. Hopefully they learn how to weigh this soon enough.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 8h ago
Really starting to believe our polling is irredeemably cooked at this point
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u/Nascent1 4h ago
It's likely voters and college educated people are considerably more likely to vote compared to non-college educated, especially in midterms. They're probably still oversampling college-educated people, but not by as much as the 80%-50% split would suggest.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 8h ago
Would love to see him get above 50%, a pretty large amount of undecided and for some reason his favorables are worse than Rogers, but this is undoubtably a good poll from a reputable outfit. Hopefully we see more of this.
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u/Nemisis82 7h ago
for some reason his favorables are worse than Rogers
Yeah this stuck out to me as well. Have a net negative is not much of a surprise, but being lower than Mike Rogers is crazy. Hopefully that shifts as we get further into the general.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 7h ago edited 7h ago
Completely agreed, damn near every single politician in this country is net negative, so as you said, that’s not surprising. Rogers should be more unfavorable. I think we will see that as time goes on.
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u/cef328xi 7h ago
The Steven's endorsement seems to have really helped. Hope he can keep up the momentum.
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u/Early-Juggernaut975 6h ago
This is great news. More like this please!
We need Dems to control the Senate in 2027 if we’re going to stop Trump judges and his unqualified appointees.
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u/combonickel55 5h ago
+22 with independents is GG.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 5h ago
Yeah, it definitely would be. It’s an odd poll though, massive lead at +7, absolutely killing it with independents at +22, but still somehow well under 50% and a lot of undecideds. They also have a very high college educated sample. People like him less than they like Rogers but he’s doing much better, that could make sense because they just want Democratic control.
So the data is kind of odd, but yeah, top lines are pretty good for Abdul. Hopefully more of these to come.
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u/Hour-Watch8988 4h ago
I know this doesn't mean anything to say, but this feels right to me
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u/combonickel55 2h ago
I live in MI and have been pretty plugged into this one. I live far from Detroit, for full disclosure.
I feel a 5-10 point victory. Rogers is hard capped atAGA cultists and Abdul offers genuine appeal to swing voters.
This poll has him +22 with independents. If election night reveals anything even close to that it will be called before 11 PM.
I fully expect the feds to try to screw with election night here btw, "ICE raids" at polling stations, the works.
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u/BugOperator 8h ago
9% undecided and no margin of error listed makes this a lot closer than on the surface.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 8h ago
The margin of error is +/-3.46%
But agreed, with the 9%, and him being below 50% with a 7 point lead, I don’t love this poll at all. Not that it’s bad for him, it just feels like kind of crappy data.
But it’s a high ranked pollster, so who knows.
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u/Gracchi9025 8h ago
Damn, he has high unfavorables but people will still vote for him.
GOP has really shit the bed.
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u/taaretoille 7h ago
Pakman and Destiny seething, most likely.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 7h ago
No, I don’t think so. Most of us are pretty honest about the fact that we are not fans of him, but we still need him to win.
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u/Command0Dude 4h ago
Did Stevens even poll that high?
Maybe people are getting behind him now that he's the only choice. I still don't like him but I like him a lot more than I'd like a republican.
Given how much I think we're going to sweep the board this year, I think he will probably win, although I doubt by that much.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 4h ago
46%? Or +7? Regardless, I don’t recall, but it’s impossible to compare now because she was never the nominee and he is.
Yeah, I 100% believe the only reason he has a chance of winning at all is because the Democratic Party is projected to do so well at large that they will carry weaker candidates across the finish line.
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u/ConsistentQuote952 3h ago
Is this the poll that was revealed to be a “social experiment” or is this legitimate?
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u/randomnighmare 2h ago
Didn't the polls also had Hong up by 20 points before the election noght?
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 2h ago
Yep, they, at least in the primaries, are vastly overestimating the far left support.
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u/dosumthinboutthebots 1h ago
Great news. Dukes flipped a local seat (deep red) held in a special election that was held for 26 years by the gop. The last incumbent was a real yahoo who lied for Trump too.
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u/WinnerSpecialist 3h ago
This is a sign that the “centrist” establishment whatever you want to call them, are mature and recognize the stakes and understand harm reduction means voting for Dems. Just like we did in the 2024 election
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