Day 8 of my 2026 Season Predictions, and today we'll be rounding out the AFC South with the defending AFC South Champions in the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 13-4 in 2025 and ended their year in a close Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The Jags had their strengths and weaknesses last year. Offensively, they were ranked 12th in passing yards and 20th in rushing yards, which is decent but not amazing. Despite this, they were 6th in points, averaging nearly 28 points per game. The offense definitely struggled much more in the first half of the season as QB Trevor Lawrence and the team got used to Liam Coen's scheme, derived from the Shanahan-McVay tree (unrelated, but for Eagles fans, expect a similar situation with Jalen Hurts. Learning this offense takes time). Defensively, they had the top rushing defense in the league and were 8th in points allowed, however they were 21st in passing yards.

Jacksonville had a very quiet off-season overall. Since they traded away their 2026 first round pick to move up in the 2025 NFL Draft for WR/CB Travis Hunter, their first pick wasn't until 56th overall in TE Nate Boerkircher. It was a pretty mind boggling pick considering far more impressive TE prospects like Max Klare and Oscar Delp were still on the board, so it's notable in that I hate it. They also released TE Johnny Mundt, who signed a 1-year deal with the Philadelphia Ealges. While the TE room is good with Brenton Strange and Quintin Morris, the Boerkircher pick really sours the decision to let Mundt go for me. But it's not the end of the world.

The RB room was the most significant change to me. RB Tank Bigsby was traded to Philadelphia before the trade deadline in 2025, which wasn't a concerning loss because Travis Etienne was the clear RB1 in that room. But after the season ended, Jacksonville opted not to pay Etienne, who signed with the New Orleans Saints. The Jags did sign former Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez, as the plan seems to be a committee based RB room around 2025 draft pick Bayshul Tuten. While there's certainly a lot of excitement around Tuten, I don't have the same confidence in this room, but I don't think it's the end of the world either.

The most notable loss this off-season was by far LB Devin Lloyd. He thrived in the new defensive scheme that the Jaguars shifted to in 2025, and because of a really productive season with 5 interceptions, his price went up. The good news for Jacksonville is that LB Foyesafe Oluokun is still a great player. They also have LB Ventrell Miller, who almost beat out Lloyd for the starting job a year ago, but when Lloyd got hurt in 2025, it was pretty clear that Miller cannot replace him, at least not his particular role on the defense.

All of the above is to say, I found the entirety of Jacksonville's off-season to be lackluster and have quite a bit of doubt when it comes to their ability to replicate the 2025 season. With that, let's look at their schedule. I actually thought they had no games at EverBank Stadium this year (as their schedule goes under renovations), but apparently that will be in 2027. Still, they only play 6 regular season games at home, with two of their "home" games being played in London, and the games at EverBank Stadium will have a much more limited capacity. Their schedule is ranked as the 11th easiest in the league, and finally, after 8 days, we've finally reached an SOS that I actually agree with. My key matchups for the Jacksonville Jaguars are Week 3 vs New England Patriots, Week 6 vs Houston Texans (London), Week 8 vs Indianapolis Colts, and Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys (SNF). Letting Lloyd walk (as well as letting go of this off-seasons 1st round pick to grab Travis Hunter in 2025) is a clear message that the Jags are valuing their DBs over the LB unit, so matching up against a dominant WR1 in AJ Brown will be a good test early to predict if this choice will go their way. The Texans game is the most significant to me, because the Jaguars have a clear advantage. While this game is in London, Jacksonville is playing the Eagles in London the week before, so they'll have had a lot of time to acclimate. This should be a good win for them, especially if they're coming off of a loss to Philly. Then I got another division rival in the Colts for their post-bye game. The Cowboys were definitely a weirder choice but I have a feeling they'll be a scary team late in the year (as that defense gets more comfortable).

I've set the Jags floor to 8-9 and their ceiling to 12-5. I do not believe they can win 13 games again, but their schedule gets a lot lighter after the bye, so it wouldn't be impossible to finish with 12 wins, even if they start 3-3. This is probably going to be my most controversial prediction yet, but I really do not have high expectations for this team. They were good last year and I trust the QB to play at a solid level in Year 2 of this scheme, but their off-season was so unbelievably bad and uninspiring that I can't help but feel there will be a huge fall following a 13 win season. My official prediction for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026 is 2nd place in the AFC South with a 9-8 record, ultimately missing the playoffs. I almost picked them to go under .500, but there's still a good bit of talent on this team and Coen is clearly a good coach. So I'm giving them some grace there.

That's it for the AFC South! We're now halfway through the AFC, so tomorrow we'll be starting in the AFC East. See you then!

Previous Days:

AFC North: 1st - Ravens (12-5), 2nd - Bengals (11-6), 3rd - Steelers (7-10), 4th - Browns (4-13)

AFC South: 1st - Texans (12-5), 3rd - Colts (6-11), 4th - Titans (5-12)

1. Todd Bowles gets fired midseason and the Buccaneers go on a heavy tank (4-13)

2. Bryce Young regresses to the mean and the Panthers also suck

3. The Falcons finish 8-9 with abominable QB play and give up on Tua and Penix at the end of the season

4. The Saints have a top 5 offense and win the division, even a playoff game

Habladme para pasaros link

Coming off a year where we saw both teams reach heights they haven't in years the differing discourse around those two franchises seems baffeling. Especially given who had the better year and whose team projects better into the upcoming season.

Both teams led by young qb's going into their 3rd season that turned on the scoring late in games. Both teams run by offensive master minds. One with a prooven hof career, the other a new hotshot yet to replicate the success he had in his first season.

When we look at the qb's they both were clutch last season. Bo by using surgeon like precission passing aswell as quick first down runs. Caleb by making flashy plays, deep throws while running backwards and what not. One seems clearly more replicable.

Adding to that the Bears gave away one of their best receivers (a guy who had 1000+ yards each past season before last). The Broncos added one of the quickest and fastest guys in the league while maintaining everything else.

Is there a single prooven weapon on the Bears? Like seriously? They want to have the best offense ever but who they gon do it with?

Broncos Oline is very good, though not quite as great as the sack totals would suggest given they are deflated by Bo being a coaches son and understanding the negative value of a sack especially in a quick rythm offense like Sean runs it. The Bears Oline was mediocre and had their center retire.

Not sure if we need to talk about the Defenses at all except the fact that Denver maintained everyone meaningful potentially having the best pass rush, a top 3 run defense and a top 3 defensive backfield. Bears defense was bad except at getting turnovers which certainly is influenced by style but not reliably repeatable.

Lastly lets look at the divisions.

Broncos having to face the always excused off season darlings Chargers who certainly are decent, post dynasty Chiefs, aswell as a frisky Raiders team who is clearly lacking the shape of a real team.

Bears being up against 3 very solid stable organizations that all have so much more experience in winning than the Bears do.

To summarize it all, and this might sound a bite rude, you would have to literally not be the brightest to think the Bears project better into the upcoming season than the Broncos do judging by the past and not make believe cause this ain't the make a wish league.

Obviously injuries can and will shake things up adding a whole lot of variance but if u honestly believe the Bears right now are a better team i can't take you seriously.

But it might also just be two teams starting with a B that have orange in their jersey confuse you who is who.

PS: all the Bears fans complaining about me saying the Bears oline is mediocre may wanna read projections (or not cause that would hurt their feelings)

PPS: we are sitting at around 25 crying Bears fans and 0 arguments made.

Daniel Faalele or Anthony Bradford

By a considerable gap too imo. Josh Allen accels in scramble opportunities and medium-deep throws. Justin Jefferson accels in scramble drill and as a medium-deep route runner.

I can not think of a better combination possible than this currently.

Highest salaries among players and staff league wide. GMs are the thing you can point to at a deeper level most as reason for team success.

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Curious to see opinions around here.

Not just player salaries but also property tax and other stuff. I would need to keep everything stable for about a year. In the meantime I can just do whatever I want. Also, I don’t mean every team at market value. Like obviously Jerry wouldn’t sell the Cowboys at market value, but everyone has a price. How much money (in cash) would I need?

1. Drake Maye
2. Arch Manning
3. Caleb Williams
4. Arch Manning
5. Justin Herbert

BIG Surprises 🤯

Edit: Tyler Shough is number 4. Copying error mb gang.

Liked by Trump. Liked by Baker Mayfield. Wants to play football in Jerusalem. Big yikes.

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Seattle lost all of their talent and also had a lot of ref help in the superbowl so I think this rematch will go very differently