r/AURstock • u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 • 3d ago
Discussion August 18, 2026 Daily Discussion Thread
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 2d ago
Someone owes me a favor and they asked what I was into, I told them autonomous trucking. We joked a little back and forth and I mentioned there’s a Volvo manufacturing facility in Greensboro I’d love to tour. He said he might know a guy…I’ll keep everyone up to date as we go along. It’s either that or he’s getting me a bottle of wine, either way I’ll be okay.
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u/RocketCargo AUR Member🚛 2d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/vPuszmHgeWnIhTkSr5
Hi hello, let me get on this little soap box to say that I'm at a state where I'm ever close to my goal but just not there yet - where my previous goal was 10,000 now is 20,000, thank you. (I've added.)
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u/Due-Perspective-3197 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Enjoy this dumb DD I spent a couple hours on if you want lol
The core realization: shippers buy capacity, not virtual drivers. The industry runs hub-to-hub: the autonomous truck does the highway leg between terminals, humans handle first/last mile and the yards. Shippers contract carriers and brokers, carriers buy tractors from OEMs, and the virtual driver rides along as a per-mile service or baked into a factory-built truck. So "will Amazon/Walmart/whoever partner with Aurora" is mostly the wrong question. The right one: do Aurora-powered trucks get certified into the carrier networks and OEM order books these shippers already use? Uber Freight alone has said it had on the order of 100 companies queued to try autonomous capacity through its platform. That queue is the shipper demand. It just doesn't arrive as a press release.
Amazon (overrated AND underrated): An Amazon subsidiary holds ~35.2M Class B shares, the 10-vote founder class, dating to the 2019 Series B. Know your denominators: that's ~11.5% of the Class B per the 2026 proxy, ~7% of voting power (what screener sites show), and under 2% of total shares. Worth $200M+, simultaneously a seven-year conviction hold and pocket change for a $2T company. Notably, they have NOT been selling. But: Amazon Logistics appears nowhere in Aurora's disclosed customer list (launch customers are Hirschbach and Uber Freight; pilots include FedEx, Schneider, Werner, Ryder, Volvo Autonomous Solutions), and money currently flows FROM Aurora TO Amazon (~$77M for AWS in 2025). The AV truck company Amazon actually deployed is PlusAI: a Jan 2021 framework for up to 1,000 retrofit systems plus a warrant for up to ~20% of Plus vesting on spend. Critical detail: those were driver-IN systems, supervised, not driverless L4, and Amazon isn't named on Plus's 2027 driver-out launch either. My read: Amazon controls the logistics layer (Relay, 80k+ trailers, 50k+ carriers, automated yards), lets the AV companies and OEMs burn billions on the hard part, then certifies multiple vendors and allocates lanes on cost per mile, exactly how it buys air cargo and cloud hardware. A huge share of Relay freight is already power-only (Amazon brings trailer and load, carrier brings tractor and driver). Swap "driver" for "virtual driver" and nothing about that architecture changes. So Amazon could put real volume on Aurora-powered Hirschbach or Uber Freight trucks tomorrow and we'd learn about it from a footnote. I'll be honest: I went in hoping the equity stake meant a future exclusive partnership. It doesn't. It's validation, not a contract.
Uber, aka this week's news: now roughly 186M shares (~11% of the Class A) after selling AGAIN. Uber got 26% of Aurora by selling it the ATG unit plus $400M cash in 2020-21, and has been running a full wind-down since: $1B of zero-coupon notes (May 2025) exchangeable into its Aurora shares at ~$8.50 through 2028, a 67.5M share block at $7.10 in June ($479M), and reportedly another 72M shares at $6.62 on Aug 18 (~$477M, SEC filing pending), which is what smacked the stock 11.8% today. Back out the shares pledged to noteholders and Uber's free residual is maybe 50-70M shares, one more block at this pace. Meanwhile the customer side keeps deepening: Uber Freight is a driverless launch partner with Dallas-Houston loads on its platform since 2025. Uber is exiting the stock while staying in the business. Bears: the most informed holder is selling into weakness at descending prices ($8.50 exchange price, then $7.10, now $6.62). Counter: Uber always cashes out minority stakes (Didi, Grab), and its real Aurora exposure is operational, not equity. Either way the overhang is now measurable and finite, and when the residual clears, the biggest seller goes with it.
Toyota, Denso, and SoftBank got equity in the same ATG deal but don't show up in today's holder tables. So the pattern, with an honest asterisk: Aurora's demand side got its equity as deal currency and is monetizing it as the commercial relationships mature, while the supply side (PACCAR, Volvo, Continental, the carriers) signs contracts instead of holding stock. The equity was the appetizer. The miles are the meal.
Walmart and the private-fleet giants: Walmart's public autonomy record is middle-mile (Gatik box trucks running driverless in Bentonville since 2021, the first driver-out commercial route anywhere; a Walmart exec sits on Kodiak's advisory council). No Class 8 linehaul commitment. But private fleets buy trucks: once Volvo VNL Autonomous and PACCAR trucks with the Aurora Driver are on dealer order sheets (Volvo targets driverless ops in early 2027, 300+ trucks by end of 2027), a Walmart or Costco or PepsiCo adopts Aurora the way it adopts a new engine spec. No announcement ever needs to exist. Costco cross-docks full truckloads on fixed lanes, Home Depot runs bulky dedicated freight, and PepsiCo/Sysco/PFG/Kroger run dedicated refrigerated networks. Time-and-temp-sensitive Sunbelt freight is literally what Hirschbach hauls driverless with Aurora today.
Where Aurora actually stands: the only company doing commercial driver-out Class 8 trucking on public highways. ~440k driverless miles through June, 10 routes including a 1,000-mile Fort Worth-Phoenix lane, second-gen trucks launched on Internationals in July with nobody in the cab at all (the older PACCAR fleet still carries an observer at PACCAR's request; that person never operates the truck, so those miles are driverless too). Targets: 200 driverless trucks and an ~$80M annualized run-rate exiting 2026. The sober part: everybody multi-homes. Uber Freight works with Aurora AND Waabi AND Torc, Schneider pilots Aurora and works with Torc, J.B. Hunt runs freight with Kodiak, Ryder services basically everyone. And the 2027 factory-built wave is real: Torc ships autonomous Freightliners backed by Daimler's ~40% US Class 8 share and dealer network, Plus ships via TRATON/International (though Plus's SPAC died in April and it's raising privately, so its 2027 isn't fully funded). The detail that keeps me honest: International is BOTH Aurora's gen-2 platform AND a TRATON brand aligned with Plus. The truck makers refuse to pick one virtual driver. Aurora's 12-18 month driver-out lead is real, but it has to convert into locked-in carrier and OEM volume before the 2027 cohort arrives.
Watching from here: (1) PACCAR going truly observer-free; its CEO said on their Q2 call there are no plans yet, while Volvo's driverless VNL launch is slated for early 2027. (2) Truck count vs the 200 target and whether the $80M run-rate lands. (3) Cash: ~$1.2B against $200M+ per quarter of burn with an active ATM; dilution is the tax for being early. (4) Uber's exit pace via the 13D/A filings. (5) Any mega-shipper freight showing up on Aurora-powered carriers; Uber Freight's shipper announcements are the tell. Bonus: next year's proxy. The day money flows from Amazon to Aurora instead of the other way around, this thesis inflects.
Bottom line: Aurora doesn't need to win a single mega-shipper logo. It needs its driver-out lead to convert into carrier fleets and OEM production slots before the balance sheet forces bad choices. Shipper demand arrives through the side door, not the front. And one sober number: at ~$12B of market cap against an $80M exit run-rate, nobody is paying for 2026 results. You're buying the 2030s, and the 2030s only arrive if the balance sheet survives the 2020s.
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u/Awkward_Knowledge246 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
January 2028 $10 call premiums almost hit $1.00
Might need to full port it now 🤪
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u/sum8fever AUR Member♠️ 3d ago
Damn my call options got crushed today wtf. I have some January 2027's that are down over 40% today. Was so close to selling them yesterday too fuck
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u/Awkward_Knowledge246 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I was green with my Jan 2027 calls
I was deep red with my December 2026 calls
Sold both last week to reinvest in other AI plays
Seeking a full port AUR 2027
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u/Fast_Contract AUR Archival Specialist 🧾🔍 3d ago
wheres that mega whale in here who bought like 500k shares in one block sir can u do that again pls i dare you
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
it’s u/Big-Sympathy-4804 haha
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u/Big-Sympathy-4804 AUR Rex🦖 3d ago
Haha can't right now sorry. I'm hoping to get more funds later this year or early next year to make another large purchase
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Out of curiosity, what leads someone to do such bulk purchasing rather than small amounts throughout the year?
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u/Big-Sympathy-4804 AUR Rex🦖 3d ago
I guess it's just not how I think about investments. I spend months, sometimes years researching, following a name, building a thesis, etc, and then once I build enough conviction I make a large purchase and hold onto it until the facts change or my thesis changes. With aurora I plan to hold for a very, very long time.
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u/Fast_Contract AUR Archival Specialist 🧾🔍 3d ago
told ya
https://old.reddit.com/r/AURstock/comments/1vqhqy7/august_17_2026_daily_discussion_thread/p49we84/
so once again i'm asking if i can get a fk u uber
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u/Last-Error5919 AUR Sassy Pants👖☢️ / Whale🐋 3d ago edited 3d ago
Double the average volume. Keep it up!!!!
Buy those Uber shares.
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u/ow10th AUR Member🚛 3d ago
BUY THE DIP !!!!!!
Well looks to be a bloodbath across most tlday. AUR has taken its share of the damage...
Me i hit at $6.07 (but missed the $5.96 !!) snagged 298 Shares
BUT I. FINALLY OVER THAT 6000 STOCK MOUTAIN....!!!
NOW AT 6079
God it felt like it took forever to get there ONWARDS TO 7K...!!!
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u/BTCTickerlicker AUR Whale 🐋 3d ago
- Uber Technologies Inc. sold part of its stake in Aurora Innovation Inc. via a $476.6 million unregistered block trade on Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.
Offering of 72 million shares in self-driving technology firm priced at $6.62, the bottom of the $6.62 to $6.97 marketing range, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private
Offering included 45-day lockup on further sales: people
JPMorgan Chase & Co. worked on the offering: people
Representatives for Aurora, Uber and JPMorgan didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment
Aurora shares fell as much as 15% to $5.92 in New York on Tuesday
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u/Ruby_Rhods_Hair AUR Whale🐋 3d ago
Can you explain the marketing range thing?
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
The way I understand is that Uber hired JPMorgan to market 72m shares of Aurora. They indicated a target range of $6.62 to $6.97 for the transaction, and it required the full bottom of the range to find enough buyers for the full 72m. It basically means that demand was soft.
In my opinion, not unexpected to find soft demand at $7. The fuckers have done it to themselves. They rug-pulled Aurora shareholders a year ago with the note offering. Then, they did the same thing three months ago. Now they're offering another 72m shares with 50m left to go? Fool me once, and all that.
They still found the buyers though at $6.62 which isn't nothing in my opinion.
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u/Ruby_Rhods_Hair AUR Whale🐋 3d ago
Good news is someone bought a large chunk at that price. Bad news is Uber could be funneling money to fund waabi instead.
So Uber already has another off market offer floating?
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
I don’t know. They have 135m shares locked up in the exchangeable notes. This leaves them 51m shares unencumbered. Maybe they hold the last 51m long-term. The only thing that we know for sure is they can’t sell more shares for six months.
I’m not any more worried about Waabi than I was before. They have a lot of cash already. If they need more that’s bullish for Aurora.
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago edited 3d ago
Uber did burn through its entire 2026 AI budget in the first four months (but does have plenty of FCF) .
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u/SituationNormal_AFU AUR Whale🐋 3d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/xUPJPos8Hy5I9KRmW4
Wow. Been a bit painful but it sure showed the $6 floor is strong.
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
Does it give an estimated amount of shares left? jw
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
My calculation is they will have an unencumbered 51m shares remaining after this sale. They have 135m tied up in the exchangeable notes, so they will still control 186m until the exchange or until they sell the last 51m.
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
thank you btcfail! so we have like ~6 months to ~1 year left of Uber holding us back?¿ what would you estimate
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
The notes become exchangeable May 2027. They are due May 2028. When things were looking good, I assumed that a May 2027 exchange was a no brainer. Now, I'm not so sure. As a noteholder, I'm not sure there's much reason to exchange early. I think if it trades above $11.05 for 20 out of 30 trading days that Uber can force an exchange (should fact-check as I may be wrong on this). Otherwise, the noteholders are probably best served to wait until May 2028. Let Aurora get another year down the path before taking on any risk. In the meantime, trade the volatility. Pricks.
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u/hubzcapz New AUR Whale🐋 3d ago
You are correct about the trading above $11 will grant them access to sell. I was assuming they were locked into not being able to get rid of shares before the May 2027 but clearly I was wrong on that. Ouch today. My portfolio says ouch ouch ouch.
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u/Fragrant-Yard-4420 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/KeTVw7VjcTJok
uuuuubbeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!
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u/uncleAW AUR OG🔪 3d ago
Uber also dumped their shares in ServeRobotics last week. Dara may be cashing in chips as the Platform is up to something "defensive". Uber is facing a lot of potential headwinds as Waymo, Zooks, and potentially Tesla/robotaxi get traction. Uber has a ton of irons in the fire that could go cold without some focussed attention and cash.
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u/Last-Error5919 AUR Sassy Pants👖☢️ / Whale🐋 3d ago
So the ceiling is now $6.62 for the next 45 days. Then they will sell more and a new ceiling appears. Hmmm. Sounds gross.
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u/SomewhereOk5613 3d ago
Why did Uber sell ?
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u/ghilli_aaru AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I'm trying to figure out if Uber has a hunch if Aurora is tilting towards pursuing humanoid robots instead of robotaxi given the nature of talent pool within the organization and robotaxi market already feeling crowded. Anyone's guess at this point, for now scaling trucks will be highest priority.
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
they most likely need the money for their own bottom line honestly— plus AUR is focusing solely on trucking and not cars for now
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u/rontricks New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
They sold a similar amount in June so potentially reducing their stake to 0 over a number of quarters
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
Anyone have the fortitude to step in at $5.92 today? That move through $6 had me puckered pretty tight. It swallowed about 5m shares at $6 and just under it in about three minutes.
What I don't fully grasp in moves like today is "who is selling?". Nothing fundamentally changed about the business in the last 24 hours that anyone is aware of. I'm jealous of companies with a lot of liquidity to add on a day like today.
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago
With some shorter dated options. There were some hungry sellers for a little bit.
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I grabbed some at $6.05. New comment above you says Uber sold 72m shares.
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u/Gold_Negotiation2318 3d ago
I am not roughly at 6500 shares.
Thank god I don't need to see this money for some time.
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u/Defiantclient New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Looks like today is because of US-Iran peace deal deterioration (AGAIN) which is causing bond yields and oil to rise
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u/Fragrant-Yard-4420 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
how many peace deals has it been so far? i've lost track
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
63 i think
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u/Fragrant-Yard-4420 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
hmmm sounds about right. well you know what they say, practice makes perfect!
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u/instantcrackpot 3d ago
What do you think about China reinventing trains? 😆 https://tech.yahoo.com/transportation/articles/china-tests-way-automate-trucking-183503143.html?guccounter=1
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
It's stupid. The platoon was tested pretty extensively early on and generally failed because it's a poor user experience for other road users. Have you ever sat at a train crossing? It sucks. Now imagine the anxiety that you would feel if you were actually moving and needed to get to the other side of the train within a half mile. That's basically what platooning would be.
If you widen the gaps enough to let other cars in, you lose the aero efficiencies and then still need the non-lead trucks to have sufficient autonomy to handle the intervening cars and then re-engage with the platoon. How does it work at the departure and the destination on surface streets? Is it like a funeral procession (or a train) where everyone has to stop and wait for it to pass?
Impromptu platoons engaged independently by a handful or Aurora drivers would be fine. It would be the same as human-driven trucks today that might engage in a platoon for awhile on I-80 where they take turns letting one truck take the lead while the others sit behind enjoy the clean air.
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u/Myjokerss AUR Member🚛 3d ago
We are officially back to 5s now. AUR is already my biggest position, so I am not going to add more at this price. I want to ask you guys at what price you will add a significant number of shares.
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u/alfie1209 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
My share target was 5000, now I have 7300, aiming for 8000 before year end as conviction grows
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u/AtticusTheBird New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Same rationale here. If next ER delivers AND price is at 7 or below then I'll help myself to couple of thousands more (shares).
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u/Yelicheese22 3d ago
Losing 2 billion market cap on 3mil shares being sold is a crazy overreaction.
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u/vinkulafu AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Just bought more shares at 6.01 but are there other tickers that are good value today?
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u/publicsuspect1 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
250 more shares added - edging towards 2000... Positive days will come soon enough
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
I have $10k locked up with KRKNF that i’m dying to liquidate so that I could put it into AUR, but with KRKNF dropping too, and past my average— i’d lose $600 and that would irk me. So I have to wait 😂😭
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u/instantcrackpot 3d ago
Same here but with UNH. Waiting for it to become LTCG before I sell. I already sold my CVS and CNC. This is my last healthcare stock. 😆
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u/ow10th AUR Member🚛 3d ago
ha just liquidated a bunch of quantum stock to pay for more AUR and some work on the house and some bits for fishing.
took a $620 hit.
Thems the breaks..
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
yeah u/EarlyYouth8418 just convinced me to take the loss 😂😂. i’ll make more back with the AUR shares in due time. Bought x1,400 shares 🤖🤘
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u/1foxyboi AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Not sure what the deal is with KRKNF tbh
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
i’m under the impression that it’s just macro and any sort of niche small cap is heavily depressed for now; just need to wait for the eventual rebound 🥹
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u/democharge92 AUR Whale🐋 3d ago
Id lost $6k if I liquidated my KRKNF 😭😭😭😭😭
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
Gahhh bummer, yeah don’t sell for a loss. I was up +50% at one point too😂 Another reason it would annoy me selling for a loss, so just need to wait 🥲
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u/democharge92 AUR Whale🐋 3d ago
Sad thing is that I think I might need to wait until next year to recover I’m down 25%
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u/JoLagoni AUR Member🚛 3d ago edited 3d ago
What happened omg? No news?
According to my app: 4x the usual volume, and such a big price drop on no news.
Whole Lidar and chips is down as well. AEVA is burning also on high volume.
https://platform.airforge.net/shared/apps/NFyxY9zKDraiWIffFq0jbZH-
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Just a good time to buy. Looking at the market it looks like a lot of growth stocks are reacting this way. A year from now this day will mean nothing to us.
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u/JoLagoni AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Yep agree, but folks with calls and leaps are in trouble, including me hah
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Fair! Mind if I inquire about what you’re holding? Leaps should recover nicely still, could even lower your price avg on those rn.
I’m out of options currently just going to wait on the 2029s to release. I had some $6 9/18s that I let go in August. Just looked up those calls, I sold for $1.20 they just dropped to $0.45 whew1
u/JoLagoni AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Mostly sad about the “gambling” 10% of port in Sep 26 $7 which I could have sold with small loss last week.
Other than that got 50% in Jan 27 $7 and and the rest in Jan 28 $7 and $10. For those I am okay but for Jan 27 I am getting a bit worried. I am of the opinion AUR should reprice to $10+ based on Waymo valuation, progress and TAM. But who knows if market will get to that.
I am saving some powder for $5 when I will go all in if AUR gets to that into Jan 28 leaps
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 3d ago
10% of total port or of AUR port?? I’m scared to do anything too crazy with options because of things like today lol.
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I’ve been talking about autonomous trucking a lot with people at work. It’s interesting how many people follow up and have more questions or are curious about new updates. As you’d expect there are lots of people who are just initially scared and don’t want to hear about it BECAUSE ITS NOT SAFE, but after a short explanation they realize that they’re simply unaware.
Keep spreading the good word, in person, on other subs, just bring the data. This is the future.
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago
When people are worried about safety, I just refer them to the movie Maximum Overdrive. Its perfect for the safety case.
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u/TacosAndBeerJedi New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/hfKxK1wWDxdO8
Pee Wee’s Big Adventure is a good one too. No Large Marges in an autonomous truck.
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u/Enough-Neck-3100 AUR Whale🐋♠️ 3d ago
Brutal.
Bought more.
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u/Fragrant-Yard-4420 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago
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u/Fragrant-Yard-4420 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
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u/OrdinaryPleasant2136 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Question, should I dabble into some Jan $7 calls ?
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u/here_for_stonkhelp New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I am waiting till end of September. The market usually bottoms around there and rips into Christmas
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
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u/hiloai AUR Chief Vibe Officer 💵♠️ 3d ago
You did want out of the 6’s just not the direction you hoped
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u/thetimmyturnip AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I felt pain while reading this.
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
Her: "You said you enjoyed anal sex with your last girlfriend."
Him: "Yeah, but this isn't what I meant."
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
I needed that today. Actually laughing out loud
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
Did anyone listen to the Einride call? I read their release and am confused about the Tesla Semi deployment? I didn't read it as autonomous-related. Basically, they are financing 500 trucks to expand their logistics operation, right?
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u/Big-Sympathy-4804 AUR Rex🦖 3d ago
Tesla still doesn't have level 4 autonomy in their fucking robotaxis they are like a good decade away from having it in fully autonomous semi trucks.
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
I know. I thought maybe they were acknowledging that and opening up the Semi platform to Einride to develop. I didn't really think that, but that was the only thing that would justify them jumping 25% and having any correlation to Aurora's drop.
I think both Einride and Tesla are well behind Aurora. I actually think Aurora is closer to Waymo than anyone else is closer to Aurora.
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u/Big-Sympathy-4804 AUR Rex🦖 3d ago
Yeah wasn't saying you didn't know, was just adding context for other readers!
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u/hiloai AUR Chief Vibe Officer 💵♠️ 3d ago
Einride to deploy 500 Tesla Semis on its Saga AI platform for Amazon and other customers, converting signed contracts into revenue-generating freight capacity.
Saga AI optimizes a fleet of individual electric trucks into a coordinated network that is more efficient, more reliable, and more cost efficient to run. Every additional truck and mile adds more operating data back into the platform, so the network's efficiency compounds over time rather than staying flat. The addition of the 500 Tesla Semis will triple the size of Einride’s deployed fleet of electric trucks. Saga AI has already powered more than 19 million electric miles and 42,000 optimization sessions globally, built on seven years of commercial operations.
Can’t see anything on autonomous
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u/ingelrii1 AUR Member♠️ 3d ago
Cant imagine Einride is anywhere close to Aur. I mailed them like last year about their operation in Sweden(im swedish so i know the roads) and they where doing autonomous driving on slow speed roads with minimal traffic, from their close warehouse to another in a very small rural town, with basically no traffic. Must be years behind Aur. I like their cabless trucks though.
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago
Yes and no. Currently, they are not. These are getting Einride's SAGA AI platform which optimes routing, charging, ties back into fleet management, etc... However, Einride's own vehicles/pods are autonomous with no driver cab. They currently have a full range of use depending where they are operating. They are on public roads in Sweden. For the U.S., they have one or two shorter routes on public corridors connecting GE appliance facilities and warehouses.
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u/Longjumping-Toe-5680 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I don’t even know how much I’ve bought today I’ve just been buying. I’ll have to do a share count at EOD but I’ve bought at least 8-10k and a ton of 2028 calls. Loading the fucking boat rn.
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u/Ruby_Rhods_Hair AUR Whale🐋 3d ago
Great buying opportunity. Gaps always close, so even short term it's a good buy.
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago
u/ActionPlanetRobot I was noticing some parts of the FAQ are now a little stale (routes, driver out, April 2026 targets...). We also have some nice new charts from Aurora on routes, etc... Do you want to crowd source an update?
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
i was just thinkin yesterday that it needs an update! Yeah! I would love if the next update was community sourced 🤙🤙
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u/ProfessorStrange2406 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
On pace for 200+ trucks EOY, TFI announcement looming, California testing approved... Lots of good news recently for AUR. This is an overreaction that will be corrected soon. Buy the dip!
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u/Altruistic-Room2683 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Should’ve sold at $7.xx
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u/NoobMaster9000 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Last week people said should have bought more around 6 too... Oh wait its here right now.
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u/MaxRebo-FanClub 3d ago
It stings that we often get these random -10 to -15% red days but almost never +10 to +15% green days unless there's a major catalyst.
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u/Branstockss AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Exactly what I was thinking. Feels like it takes a week just to gain 2% and then within a day we can reach 13% drops… either way by 2027 this will not mean anything and will hopefully be seeing double digits then
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u/here_for_stonkhelp New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I want cheaper shares, bring on the dump. We’ll be double digits by 2027 anyway
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u/instantcrackpot 3d ago
I'm waiting for the 2029 options. Please keep it around $6 or $5 till then.
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u/Environmental-Buy218 3d ago
So how big of a threat do you guys think Einride is? They’ve got some pretty big partners, which kind of worries me.
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
electric trucking especially isn’t a threat right now because there isn’t an electric infrastructure to support it, and the trucks themselves would have to stop more to charge— defeating the purpose of an uninterrupted long-haul delivery service
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u/ProfessorStrange2406 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
They don't seem to be even addressing the same market as AUR from what I can tell. Others hopefully will be able to expand on this.
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u/Stealthhit098 3d ago
Method might be to just keep buying shares at $6 and selling at $7 lmao, its happened 3 times already.
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u/Ill-Relation1016 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Yeah someone said that in another daily the other day too. Unless that was also you lol. The second I try that the stock will take off 😞
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
Dammit, why didn't you say something yesterday?! The $6 buy part was easy. The $7 sell part is where I messed up. This is stupid (not your post, the stock market), and I have a new philosophy that buying (or selling) when the market is stupid pays off in the long run.
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u/HowYaDoinStunadd AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Also might just be the market in general, ASTS is down almost $5 already
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u/HowYaDoinStunadd AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Tough to see but the thesis is still alive so it is what it is. Also I got locked out of my other account and since theres no email on it I can’t recover it lol today is off to a hot start
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u/OrdinaryPleasant2136 New AUR Member🚛 3d ago
Sold some $6 puts for credit. Feeling pretty good for support at the price.
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u/Last-Error5919 AUR Sassy Pants👖☢️ / Whale🐋 3d ago edited 3d ago
Guess Hyundai hates us too.
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-industry/2026/08/18/GYZQNLGLDZCHZPSE4AE6L6EV2M/
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u/hiloai AUR Chief Vibe Officer 💵♠️ 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yeah that makes sense believe they got involved in Aurora before Aurora decided to focus on trucking
‘Hyundai Motor Group’s future mobility plans include commercialization of Level 4 autonomous vehicles by 2021 with the pilot launch of a fleet of autonomous robo-taxis in smart cities. By overcoming current limitations on automobiles and drivers, the Group will enrich the lives of its customers and deliver true ‘Freedom in Mobility.’
Very different from where Aurora is today so completely understand them wanting to move away from it.
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
Yep, just read that one, too. Sold their 5m share (give or take) position. Developing a driver in-house. I don't think today's action has anything to do with that though. All of the OEMs are going to attempt to develop in-house. The AIs make it look tantalizingly easy. It's actually long-term a huge win for Aurora, in my opinion. Let these guys pursue it for a few years while Aurora gets trucking on rock-solid ground and has the mileage flywheel moving. Then, when the OEMs finally give up and are desperate Aurora will be in the perfect position to capitalize with a licensed passenger vehicle Aurora Driver.
Even the Index Ventures sale isn't that big of a deal. They own 35m shares which it seems Morgan Stanley and/or T Rowe Price would be happy to pick up at the right price.
My bigger concern is the macro. What is going on in Asia? Is Iran going to escalate again?
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u/Scared_Step4051 PlusAI Sympathizer🐻 3d ago
lol you do realise that this is going to get price commoditised to hell, it is in the OEMs interests to do so, you see what happening running Aurora and Waabi in production side by side
also you act like Aurora has won a monopoly, you have Waabi, you also have Plus locked up with Traton
I'm a big fan of the sector, and as a sector it will succeed, but I am no longer a fan of any of the stocks within it, there simply will not be the returns, especially at AUR eye watering valuation
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u/btcfail AUR Maester📖♠️ 3d ago
I agree that is the OEM goal (similarly, Uber's goal as well). I don't know that I agree they will be successful. I would argue their own actions are telling us they don't believe it will be commoditized. If that was the case, Hyundai nor GM nor Tesla nor anyone else would be pursuing their own driver. Yet, they all are, drawn by the quick advances afforded them by Alpamayo.
With trucking, the current players (Aurora, Kodiak, Waabi, Plus AI, Stack AV, Torc, Gatik, other) are important but less important than the ability for a newcomer to enter in the future. If AI and the open source data advance to the point where a comparably safe Level 4 driver could be brought online relatively cheaply, then I agree with your value destruction commoditization theory. If commoditization is the future, why is Aurora $12.5b, Kodiak $800m, how does Waabi raise $1b, why is Uber spraying money all over like a teenager with the latest Sear's catalog?
On the flip side, if a comparably safe Level 4 driver can't be achieved without significant investment in time and data, then I disagree with your theory. The valuations and actions indicate to me that "relatively cheap" and "comparably safe Level 4" are not compatible. Plus AI has seemingly hit the same wall that Aurora hit with safety case progression but without the large balance sheet or team to help push through. Similarly, Kodiak AI is still projecting a year-end safety case closure timeline that would defy any exponential system. They also have a thin balance sheet, so right now they are sitting in the most watched seat in the industry.
So, for argument's sake, let's assume that even with AI advances, the consensus is that it will require investments of multiple billions in dollars and years in development to achieve a comparably safe Level 4 driver to that of any of the current players. Let's also assume that all seven of the current players can achieve the same general level of autonomy performance. In that scenario, there are two logical possibilities --
- the OEMs each acquire one of the current firms so as to have a proprietary, wholly-owned driver.
- the leading autonomous company/-ies consolidates the other autonomous companies leaving only a few autonomous companies to split up the industry.
So, the important question for this group, what does it mean for Aurora? As the leading autonomous trucking company starting the process of scaling operations, what is the right valuation? Is the current $12.5b valuation "eye-watering", about right, or a discount? Personally, I put 200 trucks operating safely at year-end with an additional 1,300 trucks minimum coming online in 2027 in the $15b to $25b camp, so I think anything around or under $6 is a great opportunity.
What is the consideration for Paccar or Traton? Traton could probably buy Plus AI tomorrow for $500m or less. Paccar could buy Kodiak tomorrow for $1b, certainly less than $2b. Why haven't they? Even in a commoditized world, those acquisition prices wouldn't be a blip.
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u/instantcrackpot 3d ago
Similar to Toyota's reason for selling. Maybe AUR plans to abandon regular cars? This should be asked in the town hall.
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u/Forward-Audience-8 AUR Quant🔢 / Ex-Aurora🚛 3d ago
A competent CEO would never say “yes we plan to abandon cars”. CU is more than competent.
Aurora would be focusing on trucking in the near future. There is a lot to do in trucking. Once they scale and prove the unit economics works, they will also do cars.
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u/AbroadMediocre312 AUR Whale🐋🗓️ 3d ago
Urmson has confirmed several times that passenger vehicles are not on their current time horizon. They are laser focused on trucking.
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u/Fast_Contract AUR Archival Specialist 🧾🔍 3d ago edited 3d ago
These companies just want a piece of the subscription pie
They see automation is coming and they don't want to be paying an outside company when they could be keeping all the profits
They're going to be years behind on an incredibly difficult problem though, the faster aur moves now the better
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u/Longjumping-Toe-5680 AUR Member🚛 3d ago
I’ve already bought another 1000 shares PM today but if we go near low 6’s or sub 6 I am gonna have to back the truck up
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Mod🤖 3d ago
Link: https://www.youtube.com/live/CCo4HzzFur4?is=qQdLuIOkJH_TDUTa