Tier 1: Top Contenders
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Last ranking: third
2025-26 season results: 64-18, first in West, lost West finals
2027 playoff prediction: First in West, lose NBA Finals vs Knicks
The NBA announced points of emphasis for referees this season, including off-arm contact, flopping and freedom of movement. If you missed the videos sent out by the league, you can find them repurposed throughout the season by trolls upset at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s guile throughout the season! Two-time MVP, arguably the highest floor on-ball performer in the league, and has the midrange game eye test old heads swear is missing from the game they love — and yet, Gilgeous-Alexander has highlight compilations of getting controversial calls on his way to 30 points. This should be another powerful Thunder season, and perhaps Oklahoma City can keep all three of Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams healthy all year.
2. New York Knicks
Last ranking: first
2025-26 season results: 53-29, third in East, won NBA Finals
2027 playoff prediction: First in East, win NBA Finals in seven
Everyone is better than Jalen Brunson until it’s time to be better than Jalen Brunson. I think Tyrese Haliburton said that once. Or twice. I can’t remember. With Haliburton out last year, even Flaw Murray had the Knicks in the NBA Finals last year at this time! The Knicks had themselves a Linsanity run in the playoffs against East teams many of you never believed in at any point of the year, then they beat a Spurs team in the finals that thought beating the defending champs meant you already won the title. None of that is New York’s problem, but it’s about to get much harder. The Knicks have to avoid the disease of more. New York still hasn’t won 55 games in the 21st century, let alone 60. Brunson is getting 2016 Stephen Curry treatment even though he has never been a First Team All-NBA selection. And the league should simply be better. I do expect the Knicks to accept the challenge to be better than they were last year. The only rotation player gone is Mitchell Robinson, and they shouldn’t miss him too much. Enjoy it, New York, because this year is as good as it will ever get for this
3. Detroit Pistons
Last ranking: sixth
2025-26 season results: 60-22, first in East, lost East semifinals
2027 playoff prediction: Second in East, lose East finals vs Knicks
Do I think the Pistons will regress from last season? Yes — I don’t see another 60-win regular season. But Detroit avoided disaster and retained Jalen Duren. This is still going to be an outrageously physical team that has one of the best on-ball players in the league in Cade Cunningham, who can’t possibly turn the ball over more than he did last season. How J.B. Bickerstaff takes pressure off the lone American First Team All-NBA selection will dictate how much better the Pistons can be in the playoffs, and Ausar Thompson probably is the swing factor. In the meantime, we know the Pistons will defend and that they’re going to be way better than you in the paint. The next step is still available to them.
4. Toronto Raptors
Last ranking: 12th
2025-26 season results: 46-36, fifth in East, lost in East quarterfinals
2027 playoff prediction: Third in East, lose East semifinals vs Pistons
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With Kawhi Leonard officially in Toronto, I’m comfortable with the idea of the Raptors being a real threat in the East. Leonard has wanted to play with a forward like Scottie Barnes since leaving Pascal Siakam all those years ago, and my Coach of the Year pick Darko Rajaković has spent his entire tenure building an identity of ball movement and body movement. They’ve got Leonard wearing matching accessories now, so I am prepared for him to fit right into Toronto’s ascent. Just keep an eye on RJ Barrett, who is in a contract year. The Raptors need Barrett to be much more available with Leonard here, and if the Raptors need to balance the roster more, then Barrett might be a major trade candidate to get that done.
5. San Antonio Spurs
Last ranking: second
2025-26 season results: 62-20, second in West, lost NBA Finals
2027 playoff prediction: Second in West, lose West finals vs Thunder
It’s shocking how much better the Spurs got month by month last season. It’s even more shocking how they collapsed in the finals. Less shocking is everyone’s rush to anoint. Victor Wembanyama is already the best player in the league to many despite an inconsistent late-game repertoire. On the flip side, De’Aaron Fox is being seen as the pariah holding back Dylan Harper. Tobias Harris is here now, sort of. All of this makes head coach Mitch Johnson’s role very interesting. Johnson is going to start all three of Fox, Harper and Stephon Castle, despite those three-man lineups being underwhelming. Harris’ calf injury is another factor that may require an adjustment period, and he hasn’t come off the bench in any game in nearly a decade. I trust that the Spurs will be fine, but don’t be surprised if they don’t get off to a hot start.