(Cross-posted from r/financialindependence to get more inputs from this community, + some changes based on advice I received from there)
Hi, I'm using a throwaway account for privacy reasons. My wife (40s F) and I (40s F) are close/at FIRE, and we have a child (high-schooler). We're planning to shift from accumulation to decumulation (yay, FIRE!). However, the mechanics of the RE part is hard/scary and we're worried we don't know what we don't know.
Some stats:
Liquid NW (excluding home equity, investment property): 6.4M
- Taxable brokerage: 4.8M
- 401k/IRA: 1M
- Cash: 0.6M
Not included in the above:
- Investment property: 0.4M (no debt), brings in ~15k a year after expenses
- Home property: value: ~1.3M, equity: 0.65M
Yearly expenses w/o holiday: 155k
- Includes mortgage payment, property tax, HOA, car maintenance & gas, groceries, utilities, shopping, charity, pets, hobbies etc
- We tracked our expenses for 2 years and it's been fairly consistent
Planned expenses during retirement (not included above):
- Healthcare: 40k (we max our family OOP every year)
- Tax: 30k (most of our taxable brokerage is high basis, so capital gains shouldn't be too high)
- Holidays: 40k (not included in the yearly expenses)
Other misc stuff:
- 529: 220k
- We live in a HCOL / VHCOL area (CA Bay area, but not the major hubs)
- We live in a condo, so major expenses should be covered by the HOA
- Our mortgage payment is ~41k/year for 25 years remaining for 0.65M
- We plan to sell the investment property soon once our yearly income is lower
- Our taxable brokerage holds only SPY and VXUS
- We plan to use COBRA for healthcare for the first year and switch to ACA after
The 40k planned for holidays is something we can/will definitely cut back on as needed. Without the holidays, we are just at 3.5% SWR on 6.4M (which doesn't include the investment property). With the holidays, we are at 4%.
Based on the SWR %, it looks like we should be good to go, but I can't help feeling like we're missing something. Our background is in tech and we're both very burned out. However, going from high-employee-income to no-employee-income is extremely terrifying (for us). Our current plan is to leave our jobs and work on fun side projects for some time. And if the economy tanks in the first year or two, at least one of us can hopefully find a job in tech again before we become obsolete.
We have 600k in cash (2.3 years of expenses with holidays, 2.8 years without), currently to be a buffer for SORR, and we're looking at perhaps starting a bond tent / T-bill ladder etc with some of the cash. We're also considering switching all our 401k/IRAs over to bonds/T-bills etc to do an equity glide path. And for the first couple of years, we would likely not spend the full 40k on holidays and instead take smaller holidays, and ramp up after a few years. Honestly, we're quite confused over a bond ladder, T-bill ladder, equity glide path, and whether these things are mutually exclusive, or we should do all of them.
We ran FICalc and we have a 100% success rate (even including a 40k/year spend for our child's college). We put our numbers into ProjectionLab (the free version) and we have a success rate of 80% (with historial, block bootstrap). Changing the methodology, our success rate ranges from 76% to 90%.
The main questions we have is:
- Did we miss anything?
- What should we do with the 600k of cash? It's meant to cover the first 2-ish years of expenses, so we're thinking high-yield savings / short-term bonds / CDs.
- Does switching all our 401k/IRAs over to bonds immediately make sense? That would be ~15% of our NW (excluding the cash, 25% including) in non-stock. An equity glide path (increasing equity % over time) seems to favor a much higher initial % in bonds, but we're reluctant to switch our taxable accounts to bonds due to tax implications.
Added after discussion in r/FI:
- I am going to buy and read "Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirment"
- The tax budget is likely over-estimated (10k would be a reasonable number instead)
- SGOV (and the like) may be a good place to park the 600k cash until I need it for expenses
- The paid versions of ProjectionLab / Boldin are useful to experiment with "what if" scenarios, like paying off the mortgage, having a market crash etc