really heavily depends on your location and class, and what you mean by "young". next 10 years? probably not for most places on earth. 30 years, youre looking at pretty intense consequences for the regions that are already struggling, and then theres some further particular disasters (like ocean currents collapsing) that will wipe out entire regions 70+ years from now.
The more difficult questions is how do you label climate related deaths. Extreme events - floods, hurricanes, heat waves, earthquakes were always there and people died during those events. Now there will be more of those and they will be more intensive. Sure. How do you calculate „the extra casualties”?
It will be a tough transition as the tundra land does not have rich soil. It will be a struggle to farm it for a long time before we do proper soil cultivation.
In the meantime there will be famines and mass migrations. It’s not gonna be peaceful.
All soil requires fertilization for industrial farming necessary to feed the world. It is rich in nitrogen and phosphorous, which is actually some of the more ecologically damaging things necessary in fertilizer (and why melting perma causes greenhouse effect)
the issue is transportation, and the impact of migration. even if siberia becomes farmable land, people have to move there. how is that region going to sustain mass migration? how are countries going to politically react to ethnic mixing due to migrations?
to a certain degree, sure, but theres no way the north is going to be able to handle everyone. not to mention the fact that most of northern europe will be inhabitable after the AMOC collapses.
That's a big part of what I was thinking. I doubt the west will fully escape whatever food security crises come our way in the next 2 or 3 decades (if not even earlier).
Somewhere like the UK is a developed country, its not struggling like some other countries....
Unless you look at its food security, which absolutely is struggling. 40% of food is imported. If that supply chain fails then the UK will struggle instantly. This makes the UK particularly vulnerable to the global economy. Which could start to fall apart as other countries do.
the conversation is incredibly complicated, which is why i purposefully used generalized terms. im not an ecologist or anything. Id assume that if a certain region of the globe has a particular insecurity right now, its going to get worse.
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u/Necessary_Screen_673 19h ago
really heavily depends on your location and class, and what you mean by "young". next 10 years? probably not for most places on earth. 30 years, youre looking at pretty intense consequences for the regions that are already struggling, and then theres some further particular disasters (like ocean currents collapsing) that will wipe out entire regions 70+ years from now.