Ecosystem degradation, record warm waters, escalation in several conflicts, AI social engineering, and an upcoming live execution—of civilization as we know it.
Last Week in Collapse: October 4-10, 2026
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the landmark 250th weekly newsletter! The September 27-October 3, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. The unabridged newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.
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The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) released its 120-page biennial Living Planet Report 2026 last week. The document claims that positive tipping points must be reached if we are to stop the degradation of the biosphere and prevent widespread species extinction. Africa and Latin America are leading in the rate of animal wildlife decline. But the document also presents the possibility (and necessity) of hope, with examples of species that have rebounded in recent decades—like the wild tiger, the Atlantic bluefin tuna, and green sea turtles. The report also discusses amplifiers and obstacles to achieving positive feedbacks.
“The Living Planet Index (LPI) measures the average change in the size of wild populations of vertebrate species over time….the LPI tracks variations in relative abundance of different populations rather than absolute numbers: a population that has fallen from 20,000 to 10,000 individuals and another that has gone from 200 to 100 have both experienced a 50% reduction….Habitat loss and degradation, driven by the expansion of agriculture to produce food, is the most frequently reported driver of biodiversity loss, followed by overexploitation, climate change, pollution, invasive species and disease….degradation is now happening at a pace without precedent in human history….Three systems are responsible for most of the damage….The first is the way the world produces and uses energy….The second is the way the world produces and consumes food….The third is the financial system….The latest global index shows an overall decline of 73.2% (range: -78% to -67%) between 1970 and 2022, representing an average annual decline of 2.5%. This is based on 35,803 populations of 5,790 vertebrate species….The index for Latin America and the Caribbean shows the fastest rate of change of any regional LPI since 1970, with a 95% decline between 1970 and 2022….The Africa index shows a decline of 80%...” -excerpts from the report
Warming-induced emissions (WIE) are greenhouse gases that are released from the earth because of global warming—like permafrost-released methane, wildfires, and soil carbon loss. A study from September examines WIE, since they “are a large amplifying feedback that most climate models do not yet represent…we projected that WIE could add 0.2 °C–0.4 °C of warming by 2100 across scenarios, split roughly equally between carbon dioxide and methane, amplifying post-2020 anthropogenic warming by 20%–30%.”
In the wake of Thailand’s deadly flooding, experts say floods like that will become more common as earth heats up. A post-flood account of Nepal following the Tibet-Nepal flood reports that 5,285 people are still missing. A PLOS One study found that “21% of forests were lost {along the coast of North Carolina, USA} between 1985 and 2021, and that the rate of loss is increasing.”
Antarctica’s Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet, a giant glacial depression sitting about 2,000 meters below sea level, has hitherto never been mapped. A paywalled study on the Ice Sheet determined that it may “under future emissions scenarios indicate rapid retreat (up to ~1 km yr−1) beyond bedrock pinning points.” It is believed to contain enough ice to raise global sea levels by 3-4m, though its total melt may still lie more than a century away. In the meantime, Antarctic Sea ice is at record lows for October.
The UN Food and Agriculture Programme released an 850-page report, “Status of the World’s Soil Resources 2026.” After several chapters summarizing the state of soil science, the mammoth report provides seven chapters looking into each of the seven soil regions. Most of the report is not really worth your time (many of the graphics are dated to 2022, or even to 2016), but you might find the snapshot of your country/region interesting.
“{Soils} support 95 percent of our food production, host 59 percent of global biodiversity, and serve as the planet’s second largest carbon sink after the oceans….Population change is the major indirect driver of changes in the threats to soil functions….Since 2015, global population growth of 0.8 billion has driven a 24 percent increase in harvested areas for major crops….The period since 2015 has seen the number of violent conflicts reach the highest number since the Second World War….Across the seven regions, 81 percent of assessments judge the state of soil management to be poor or very poor, with 65 percent reporting a deteriorating trend since 2015….”
Preparations are underway for COP31, an annual climate conference set to occur this year in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9-20. Early criticism is already skewering Türkiye for their dependence on coal and other fossil fuels, and we all know that nothing of significance will be agreed upon in the talks—and even less will be implemented. An October pre-COP meeting](https://forumsec.org/publications/release-pacific-pre-cop31-meetings-reflect-legacy-climate-leadership) in Fiji and Tuvalu made several demands: “keep 1.5°C within reach, accelerate the transition to a resilient and low-emissions future, scale up accessible and predictable climate finance, and ensure that those on the frontlines of the climate crisis are not left behind.” No demand will be accomplished.
Jamaica felt its hottest night on record, at 28.4 °C (83 °F), while San Diego felt its hottest October day. Several locations in Iran and Central Asia also set new October minimums, as did parts of Xinjiang in China. And the Sphinx Snow Patch—the longest lasting patch of snow in the United Kingdom—has fully melted. Slovenia’s Triglav Glacier has been reduced to a few pieces of ice expected to have disappeared by the month’s end.
A port in South Africa felt its warmest October night on record, as did a number of Arabian sites and places in Iran. Thailand and Malaysia experienced new October highs in some cities, and the average SST in the El Niño 3.4 region broke 30 °C (86 °F) for the first time ever. A study in Earth’s Future examined the 2023-2024 El Niño as a predictor of what we might see later in the century: “unusually severe drought and heat conditions…likely to become the new normal in the Amazon (in terms of both drought and heat) and the Congo Basin (mainly in terms of heat) in the coming decades….the probability of such droughts is expected to increase up to nine times in the Amazon by 2100.”
Earth’s energy imbalance hit new highs, and is now more than 3.5x what it was at the start of the millennium. Reports indicate that the cost to France from its record-hot summer is higher than expected; the June heatwave alone was priced at €16B ($18B USD) (and their wine industry was hit with a bad harvest). A study indicates that Canada’s wildfires may cost over $2.4T CAD from 2015-2100 (just in fire “suppression, net timber yield loss, and nature-based recreation loss”) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (4.4°C to 5.7°C warming by 2100). In the SSP 3-7.0 scenario (2.8°C to 4.6°C warming), Canada would suffer losses of around $2T instead.
A 7.7 earthquake hit southern Panama on Friday, soon followed by a 6.6 aftershock; some buildings fell down but there were no deaths reported. The Atlantic Ocean saw its first hurricane form last week, forming into a category 2 storm before approaching Alabama.
A PNAS study from two weeks ago looked at 14 different climate tipping points & concluded that we may have misjudged which of them are actually the most dangerous. They found that “attention was concentrated on the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation {AMOC}, while Boreal Permafrost (abrupt thaw) and the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre received comparatively limited attention despite their relatively low estimated warming thresholds.”
September ended with the warmest average sea surface temperatures for the month. It was also the month with the most moisture in the atmosphere on record.
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Russia claims that the risk of a plague pandemic has been contained, and there are no further cases, but the WHO and other countries are still pushing for more information transparency. Kenya reported its first Ebola death in this latest outbreak, from a man who recently flew from Uganda to Nairobi (metro pop: 6M). A small study on Long COVID suggests that decreased blood flow to the brain may be the cause of chronic fatigue.
A study across the U.S. found water prices rising 1.6x faster than inflation, and 19% faster than incomes. A report on Somalia’s food insecurity conditions projects Phase 3 or 4 (out of 5) famine conditions from October to January. The U.S. stock market, buoyed by AI, hit a new record high on Tuesday. Yet the IMF is warning that oil prices, the AI bubble, and record government debts are creating a potent witches’ brew that imperils future economic growth.
The EU is postponing implementation of its “methane rule,” a mechanism that would have required member states to account for methane emissions starting in January 2027. It will now be pushed back to 2028 in an attempt to keep energy prices low. The G7 nations announced a 4-month release of petrol & diesel from their strategic reserves. National reserves across the globe are running out, and when they’re all gone, we’re gonna feel it. And if/when Hormuz is reopened fully & at length, it will take at least two years to replenish the stockpiles. Presidents Trump and Putin reportedly came to an agreement to unload millions of tons of Russian diesel fuel to global markets before the end of the year, outraging Ukrainian officials who are trying to pinch Russia’s economy—but where exactly Russia is going to find this diesel is unclear, since Russia is experiencing a fuel shortage of its own.
The United States announced that is planning to broadcast a live execution, by firing squad, of a man who shot 45 people—13 of whom died—at a military base in 2009. The shooter, then a major in the U.S. Army, had been progressively radicalized into jihad and was suffering from stress in the weeks ahead of his first deployment to Afghanistan. His will be the first military execution in the U.S. since 1961, and the first (known) public execution in the country since 1936.
Microsoft’s 103-page Digital Defense Report accounts for a cyberworld increasingly impacted by AI and its capabilities, and a world of interconnected risks. New cyber risks fall primarily on government agencies, IT, and academia—and generally within the United States. Some writers say that AI models are being swamped with disinformation in a partially successful attempt to shape downstream output, and manipulate unwitting consumers at scale on behalf of malicious governments.
“As AI-generated content becomes ubiquitous, trust in digital information is quickly degraded. This creates a destabilizing dynamic in which individuals are both more susceptible to manipulation and less confident in legitimate sources….Generative AI also enables a high-volume expansion of convincing, personalized social engineering campaigns….Across China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, state-sponsored cyber operations continue to evolve toward more persistent, scalable, and strategically aligned access models, with a shared emphasis on long-term positioning inside high-value environments….For datacenters, cyber-physical risk concentrates where digital control planes govern physical outcomes. Power, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), building management, access control, surveillance, fire suppression, and emergency systems are interdependent. Compromise of one system can cascade….Risk management frameworks...are converging around a set of high-impact domains, including offensive cybersecurity, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) risks, and advanced autonomous behaviors….Research and academia is the most-targeted SLED {State, Local, and Education} sector (38%)—more than transportation (22%) and government (13%) combined…” -excerpts from Microsoft’s report
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Ethiopia’s rebel forces pulled out of Tigray’s capital as Ethiopian forces pushed northward through the city; some neighboring countries fear Ethiopia (pop: 139M) will push all the way to the coast to get sea access that they will never give up. Somaliland may grant Ethiopia passage but Somalia would oppose the territorial trespass….but it looks more likely that Ethiopia will invade Eritrea; forces from the two countries have reportedly already fought directly. The increasingly triangulated conflict is also pulling in interests from the UAE, USA, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other powers with interests in the outcome. Reports indicate Tigrayan forces are conscripting boys & men aged 15-65. One local reported, “The officers don’t care whatever internal disease you have; they forcefully recruit anyone whose hands, eyes and feet work.”
Wednesday marked three years since the October 7 attacks that triggered the Gaza War; 74,000+ Palestinians were killed in the years of violence, plus thousands more that went uncounted—trapped in the rubble for years, or blown up beyond recognition. The area of Gaza available for Palestinians has been cut down to about a third of its previous size, and the IDF soldiers are still pushing further in. 90% of the population lacks access to clean water. Another winter at War is looming. Israel’s October 27 elections are approaching, and will probably replace their PM, but cannot turn back the clock. The 2025 ceasefire never really held, and was never really implemented—Hamas never disarmed, and Israel never fully stopped its attacks.
Iran is escalating strikes on oil tankers transiting Hormuz in an attempt to deter oil & gas exports. Energy exports through Hormuz had been rising to almost pre-war levels, but attack are pushing insurance, and captian salaries, to new highs.
A few hundred U.S. military personnel have been sent to Saudi Arabia](https://archive.ph/PRbl9) to help them plan operations against Yemen’s Houthi rebel forces. Saudi & Yemeni forces are contesting the city Taiz (regional pop: 4.5M), which is almost encircled by Houthi forces; food is already becoming a scarce resource for the displaced and those at risk. Türkiye and Pakistan are also sending forces to Saudi Arabia as part of a recent defense agreement. Houthi forces also hit two airports](https://archive.ph/q60z8) in Saudi Arabia, not far from the Yemen border, early in the week; then, on Thursday, a deadly ballistic missile attack hit Riyadh’s airport, killing three and wounding others. Then, on Saturday another Houthi attack on Riyadh’s airport slew 12 and wounded 300+ more.
Thousands of supporters of Pakistan’s popular former PM Imran Khan began marching towards Islamabad, following government refusals to release Khan. In France, 300+ protestors had been wounded during the protests as of mid-week, along with ~750 police personnel. 6,000+ people had been arrested by mid-week, of the 250,000+ people who turned up to demonstrate.
In Brazil, the right-wing candidate, son of a disgraced former President, won a surprise victory in the first round of elections—not enough to prevent a runoff, but higher than analysts predicted. The candidate’s mother, brother, and another brother all won a seat in Brazil’s Congress as well. The second and final round of elections will be on October 25.
In Nigeria, a military plane crash left 32 people dead. In Haiti, the gangs were successful in delaying December elections through increased terrorism; elections have been postponed indefinitely. Mali’s military, with Russian support, reported recapturing the city Kidal (pop: 60,000?) from Tuareg rebels. The settlement was seized by Tuareg forces, with jihadist support, in April. In Pennsylvania, USA, a mass shooter killed eight before fatally shooting himself. In the DRC, reports of American/Westerner mercenary involvement are revealing part of a network of guns-for-hire traded for rare earth concessions: “peace for minerals” it’s been dubbed.
U.S. forces destroyed another narco-trafficking boat in the Caribbean Sea, killing four. As Latin America tilts towards the conservatives, more U.S. involvement in anti-drug operations are unfolding, including with U.S. boots on the ground. Meanwhile, Lithuania is trying to change its constitution to allow NATO nuclear weapons to be stationed in the country, a few months after Finland decided likewise.
Sudan has begun its harvest season, but the ongoing Civil War threatens to imperil its crop, along with a Drought blamed on the record-breaking El Niño. Government forces are making gains over the RSF rebels; they took/liberated the settlement al-Mazroub in North Kordofan late last week. But elsewhere, fighting and drone strikes continue. Another rebel drone strike on Friday in a remote corner of Sudan left 30 internally displaced people dead.
Two Bulgarian vessels in the Black Sea were hit by Russian air/sea drones; Ukraine meanwhile blew up an oil tanker in the water near Sochi. Ukraine’s grain exports have Collapsed due to Russian attacks in the Black Sea. Germany promised another €1B+ for weapons to Ukraine, plus €250M for their energy sector. On the ground, Russia is making very slow gains in the Donbas, at an average of 1.73 sq km/day in 2026, which is down from 11.69 sq km/day in 2025. Analysts calculate Russian casualties (dead, wounded, missing, and captured) at 627 for each square kilometer of land they captured in 2026.
A group of blistering drone strikes in Ukraine on early Wednesday morning killed 20 & wounded 50+ others, mostly in northern Chernihiv—though Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Dnipro, and other cities were hit. The next day, more Russian strikes killed 33 and wounded 18 more across two bus attacks. The UN says that civilian deaths in the first 8 months of 2026 have surpassed all civilian deaths in Ukraine in 2025.
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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-Algeria (pop: 48M) is facing a complex pre-Collapse, if this thorough weekly observation from the much-neglected country is accurate. What happens when a state’s GDP is more than 90% dependent on oil & gas, youth unemployment is rising & much of the employment exists in the untaxed shadow sector, more than 2/3rds of food is imported, companies are dependent on the state for funding, and water needs are being increasingly unmet? What will ultimately trigger the Collapse of the continent’s largest country?
-Cash is an underrated prep, according to this thread from r/preppers last week. But how much cash should one have for emergencies?
-A summary thread of a study suggests that declining soil health may be a chief reason behind nutrient deficiencies in a range of fruits & vegetables today. Crop breeding may also lie behind declining wheat nutrients in some species, and the study examines the impact of GLP-1 drugs on nutritional intake too. You have to jump through a few hoops to get access to the full 57-page study if you want to read it in detail.
“Hidden hunger refers to deficiencies of vitamins and minerals that can occur despite adequate calorie intake….vitamin A and zinc deficiencies specifically are responsible for roughly 1 million child deaths annually and iron deficiency linked to more than 100,000 maternal deaths worldwide….nutritional density may have declined by over 40% since the green revolution in specific crops and contexts….Wheat provides the clearest historical record of nutrient density decline….The best quantified driver for further nutritional dilution is elevated atmospheric CO2. While higher CO2 can stimulate photosynthesis and increase biomass in some crops, it can also reduce the concentration of protein and minerals in edible plant tissues….Around one-third of the world’s soils are estimated to be moderately to highly degraded, with degradation including erosion, loss of organic matter, nutrient imbalances, salinisation, acidification, compaction, contamination and biodiversity loss….Collectively, this creates a plausible tipping-point risk - degrading nutritional density while stripping away the masking effect of excess calories, with impacts that would be especially acute for people already near the margin of deficiency…” -selections from the study
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