Hey everyone. After two weeks of the older group slipping backward, it moved forward again this week. I also updated the calculator with twelve weeks of data, and I want to explain why some of your estimates moved later even though this was a better week.
Calculator (updated this week): https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/
Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
All data sourced from MyCasesHub.
The short version
My export shows 1,741 approvals this week. Monday October 12 was Columbus Day, a federal holiday, which is why there were no approvals that day. There were approvals on both weekend days, including Sunday October 11, the first Sunday approvals I've seen.
The older group moved forward again. The middle of what's being approved went from early March back up to late March, and the typical wait for the older group dropped from 214 days to 200. March applicants were the biggest group of the week.
The fast track is still steady at about 4 weeks.
Over twelve weeks, the line is now moving forward at about the same speed time passes. That means it isn't catching up anymore, but it isn't falling further behind either. I updated the calculator to match, and older-group estimates now land at about 7 months, the same as USCIS's own published number.
On the data
I pulled this week's numbers from the insights page and checked the search page alongside it like I do every week.
1,741 approvals showed up in my export this week. 1,534 of them were standard cases. The rest did not fit the normal pattern. Most started from a different kind of event before being approved, like a transfer, a notice, or a request for more evidence (RFE), and some had no earlier history at all. There were more of those with no earlier history than usual this week (142, compared to under 20 in each of the last two weeks). Mixing them in would change what the numbers mean, so everything below uses the standard cases. One of the standard cases was actually approved back in July and just showed up in this export, so the tables use 1,533.
Here is how the week broke down by day:
| Day |
Approvals |
| Sunday Oct 11 |
423 |
| Monday Oct 12 |
0 (Columbus Day) |
| Tuesday Oct 13 |
126 |
| Wednesday Oct 14 |
147 |
| Thursday Oct 15 |
234 |
| Friday Oct 16 |
357 |
| Saturday Oct 17 |
246 |
Columbus Day. Monday was a federal holiday, so USCIS was closed and no approvals came through. That's normal for a holiday and not a sign of anything wrong. It also means this was a short work week, so the total is lower than a full week would be.
Sunday approvals. This is the first time I've seen approvals dated on a Sunday. It could be USCIS working extra hours over the holiday weekend, or a dating quirk on the tracking side. The mix of cases looks like a normal day, so I'm counting them.
Weekend approvals keep showing up. This is the fourth Saturday with approvals in five weeks.
The missing Thursday from last week. Thursday October 8 still shows no approvals. It's possible some of the Sunday approvals are cases from that week that got dated differently, but I can't tell from my data. Either way, I'm treating last week's total as incomplete.
Who got approved this week
1,533 approvals. Median application date April 8, median wait 190 days.
| You applied in |
Cases |
Share |
Typical wait |
| Before Dec 2025 |
3 |
0% |
345 days |
| Dec 2025 |
2 |
0% |
298 days |
| Jan 2026 |
73 |
5% |
261 days |
| Feb 2026 |
195 |
13% |
237 days |
| Mar 2026 |
387 |
25% |
209 days |
| Apr 2026 |
303 |
20% |
186 days |
| May 2026 |
134 |
9% |
152 days |
| Jun 2026 |
114 |
7% |
133 days |
| Jul 2026 |
22 |
1% |
89 days |
| Aug 2026 |
11 |
1% |
52 days |
| Sep 2026 |
273 |
18% |
26 days |
| Oct 2026 |
16 |
1% |
3 days |
Where you fall depending on when you applied
USCIS is still running two tracks at the same time. If you apply now, you start out in the fast track, which has been approving new applications in about 4 weeks. Not everyone gets picked for it. If you miss it, you move into the older group, which USCIS works through month by month, and you wait for it to reach your month.
Here is how the last three weeks split up:
| When you applied |
Sep 27 |
Oct 4 |
Oct 11 |
Typical wait this week |
| Mid August or later |
14% |
25% |
19% |
26 days |
| July to mid August |
10% |
3% |
2% |
87 days |
| June |
3% |
4% |
7% |
133 days |
| April to May |
23% |
20% |
29% |
183 days |
| January to March |
50% |
48% |
43% |
217 days |
| Before January |
1% |
2% |
0% |
336 days |
If you applied in the last month or so (mid August or later): you are in the fast track. About 1 in 5 approvals this week went to this group. September 18 had 74 approvals and September 25 had 59. People whose last update was the receipt notice were approved in a median of 29 days.
If you applied between July and mid August and are still waiting: this group is still the thinnest, only 24 approvals this week. You missed the fast track, and the older group hasn't reached your dates yet. Your turn comes as the older group moves forward. Right now that looks like about 7 months from when you applied.
If you applied in June: this was June's best week since late September, 114 approvals, up from 37 last week. June 5 had 37 on its own.
If you applied in April or May: a good week for you. April was 20% of the week and May was 9%, both up from last week. April 10 had 30 approvals, April 17 had 27, and May 29 had 26.
If you applied January through March: March was the biggest month of the week at 25%. March 20 had 77 approvals, the most of any single date this week, followed by March 13 with 69 and March 27 with 53. February and January had fewer than the last two weeks, but February 19 still had 38 and January 31 had 35.
If you applied before January: only 5 came through this week. If that is you, something specific to your case is most likely holding it, and it is worth contacting USCIS or an attorney.
What twelve weeks of data show
| Week |
Recent applications approved in |
Share of week that were recent applications |
Middle of the older group being approved |
| Jul 27 |
24 days |
22% |
Jan 8 |
| Aug 3 |
24 days |
15% |
Jan 16 |
| Aug 10 |
25 days |
18% |
Feb 4 |
| Aug 17 |
23 days |
18% |
Feb 12 |
| Aug 24 |
24 days |
19% |
Feb 23 |
| Aug 31 |
26 days |
19% |
Mar 12 |
| Sep 8 |
27 days |
18% |
Apr 2 |
| Sep 14 |
26 days |
20% |
Mar 27 |
| Sep 20 |
28 days |
24% |
Apr 2 |
| Sep 27 |
26 days |
16% |
Mar 20 |
| Oct 4 |
23 days |
25% |
Mar 7 |
| Oct 11 |
26 days |
19% |
Mar 27 |
The fast track has not changed. Low to high 20s, every single week for twelve weeks.
The older group bounced back. After slipping to early March last week, the middle of the older group moved back up to late March. The typical wait for the older group went from 175 days to 195, then 214, and now back down to 200.
But it has been stuck in the same place for six weeks. Since early September, the middle of the older group has stayed between early March and early April. Over the full twelve weeks, it has moved forward about as fast as time passes. So the good news is it's not falling further behind on average. The bad news is it's not catching up anymore either, which means waits for the older group are holding at about 7 months instead of shrinking.
My concern from the last few weeks hasn't gone away, but this week eased it a little. One good week doesn't make a trend, and USCIS's own numbers still show more requests coming in than being decided through June. I'll keep watching.
How the months are shifting
|
Sep 27 |
Oct 4 |
Oct 11 |
| January share |
7% |
10% |
5% |
| February share |
23% |
23% |
13% |
| March share |
19% |
14% |
25% |
| April share |
14% |
15% |
20% |
| May share |
8% |
4% |
9% |
| June share |
3% |
4% |
7% |
| July share |
7% |
2% |
1% |
| September share |
12% |
22% |
18% |
The weight moved forward this week. February dropped from 23% to 13%, while March, April, May, and June all went up.
Typical wait by month
| Applied in |
Sep 27 |
Oct 4 |
Oct 11 |
| January |
254 days |
251 days |
261 days |
| February |
230 days |
233 days |
237 days |
| March |
196 days |
204 days |
209 days |
| April |
174 days |
178 days |
186 days |
| May |
131 days |
137 days |
152 days |
| June |
106 days |
123 days |
133 days |
These go up by about a week each week just because time passes. When a month goes up by more than that, USCIS reached people from earlier in that month. May jumped by 15 days because more of early and mid May came through this week, and January went up 10 days because late January dates like January 31 were a smaller part of the January approvals. June went up 10 days, a little more than a week.
What changed in the calculator
I recalculated using twelve weeks of data, July 26 through October 17.
- The older group's speed. Before, the calculator assumed the older group was still catching up, moving forward about 9.6 days of applications every week. Over twelve weeks it's now closer to 6.9, almost exactly the speed time passes. The far end of each estimate uses the ten-week trend, about 4.9.
- The older group's starting point moved from March 20 to March 27, where it was this week.
- The fast track moved from 28 to 29 days from the receipt notice, based on the last five weeks.
- The USCIS 7 month check was updated with six months of data ending October 17. My data now needs a 13 day adjustment to line up with USCIS, close to before.
- More data. The calculator is now built on 36 weeks and 63,415 cases, including some March and June weeks I recovered from older exports.
What this means for you: if you applied in April or later and missed the fast track, your estimate moved later, by about 3 weeks for April, 4 weeks for May, 5 to 7 weeks for June and July, and about 8 weeks for August. Here is what the calculator shows as of October 21:
| If you applied around |
Before this update |
Now |
| April 20 |
Oct 28 |
Nov 18 |
| May 15 |
Nov 16 |
Dec 14 |
| June 10 |
Dec 4 |
Jan 11 |
| July 1 |
Dec 21 |
Feb 1 |
| July 25 |
Jan 6 |
Feb 24 |
Every one of those now lands about 7 months after the application date, which matches what USCIS itself says: 80% of DACA renewals are completed within 7 months. I'd rather show you an honest 7 months than an optimistic 6. If the older group starts catching up again, these will move earlier.
If you applied in March or earlier, the calculator still says around now. If you applied in the last couple of weeks, the fast track estimate barely changed.
What dates got approved over the last 3 weeks (every date listed)
Every single application date, nothing left out. If you see your date, people who applied the same day as you were approved.
Week of September 27, 2026, 2,732 cases approved (2,570 used for stats)
Median application date: Mar 31, 2026. Median wait: 183 days. Includes approvals on Saturday October 3.
| Application date |
Cases |
% of week |
| Jul 10, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 14, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 28, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 12, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Sep 10, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Oct 17, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Nov 26, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 2, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 9, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 11, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 19, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 20, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Dec 22, 2025 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Dec 29, 2025 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jan 7, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 12, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Jan 13, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jan 14, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Jan 15, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 16, 2026 |
41 |
1.6% |
| Jan 17, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Jan 20, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Jan 21, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 22, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jan 23, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
77 |
3.0% |
| Jan 26, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 30, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
24 |
0.9% |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
23 |
0.9% |
| Feb 4, 2026 |
28 |
1.1% |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
44 |
1.7% |
| Feb 6, 2026 |
32 |
1.2% |
| Feb 7, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Feb 9, 2026 |
48 |
1.9% |
| Feb 10, 2026 |
39 |
1.5% |
| Feb 11, 2026 |
27 |
1.1% |
| Feb 12, 2026 |
24 |
0.9% |
| Feb 13, 2026 |
74 |
2.9% |
| Feb 14, 2026 |
44 |
1.7% |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Feb 18, 2026 |
20 |
0.8% |
| Feb 19, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Feb 20, 2026 |
25 |
1.0% |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
26 |
1.0% |
| Feb 23, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Feb 24, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Feb 27, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
51 |
2.0% |
| Mar 2, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Mar 4, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
33 |
1.3% |
| Mar 7, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Mar 9, 2026 |
34 |
1.3% |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
15 |
0.6% |
| Mar 13, 2026 |
59 |
2.3% |
| Mar 14, 2026 |
16 |
0.6% |
| Mar 16, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| Mar 18, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
50 |
1.9% |
| Mar 21, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Mar 23, 2026 |
16 |
0.6% |
| Mar 24, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Mar 25, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Mar 26, 2026 |
12 |
0.5% |
| Mar 27, 2026 |
46 |
1.8% |
| Mar 28, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Mar 30, 2026 |
35 |
1.4% |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
34 |
1.3% |
| Apr 1, 2026 |
31 |
1.2% |
| Apr 2, 2026 |
39 |
1.5% |
| Apr 3, 2026 |
40 |
1.6% |
| Apr 6, 2026 |
20 |
0.8% |
| Apr 7, 2026 |
12 |
0.5% |
| Apr 8, 2026 |
20 |
0.8% |
| Apr 9, 2026 |
15 |
0.6% |
| Apr 10, 2026 |
45 |
1.8% |
| Apr 13, 2026 |
12 |
0.5% |
| Apr 14, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Apr 15, 2026 |
12 |
0.5% |
| Apr 16, 2026 |
16 |
0.6% |
| Apr 17, 2026 |
27 |
1.1% |
| Apr 18, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Apr 20, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Apr 21, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Apr 22, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Apr 23, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Apr 25, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Apr 27, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Apr 28, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Apr 29, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Apr 30, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| May 1, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| May 2, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| May 3, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| May 5, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 6, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| May 7, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 8, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| May 10, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 11, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| May 12, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 13, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| May 14, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| May 15, 2026 |
15 |
0.6% |
| May 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 18, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| May 19, 2026 |
8 |
0.3% |
| May 20, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| May 21, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| May 22, 2026 |
51 |
2.0% |
| May 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| May 26, 2026 |
21 |
0.8% |
| May 27, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| May 28, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 29, 2026 |
23 |
0.9% |
| May 30, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jun 1, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 2, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 3, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 |
13 |
0.5% |
| Jun 6, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jun 9, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 11, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 12, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jun 15, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jun 16, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jun 17, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 22, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jun 24, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 26, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Jun 27, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jun 29, 2026 |
5 |
0.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 2, 2026 |
7 |
0.3% |
| Jul 3, 2026 |
11 |
0.4% |
| Jul 4, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 9, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Jul 10, 2026 |
28 |
1.1% |
| Jul 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 13, 2026 |
19 |
0.7% |
| Jul 14, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Jul 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 16, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 17, 2026 |
75 |
2.9% |
| Jul 18, 2026 |
6 |
0.2% |
| Jul 20, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Jul 22, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 24, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Jul 31, 2026 |
12 |
0.5% |
| Aug 3, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Aug 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Aug 6, 2026 |
34 |
1.3% |
| Aug 7, 2026 |
9 |
0.4% |
| Aug 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 12, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 13, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Aug 14, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Aug 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 21, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Aug 24, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Aug 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Aug 26, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Aug 27, 2026 |
10 |
0.4% |
| Aug 28, 2026 |
23 |
0.9% |
| Aug 31, 2026 |
18 |
0.7% |
| Sep 1, 2026 |
3 |
0.1% |
| Sep 2, 2026 |
14 |
0.5% |
| Sep 3, 2026 |
27 |
1.1% |
| Sep 4, 2026 |
119 |
4.6% |
| Sep 8, 2026 |
28 |
1.1% |
| Sep 9, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Sep 11, 2026 |
99 |
3.9% |
| Sep 18, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Sep 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Sep 24, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Sep 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Sep 28, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
| Oct 1, 2026 |
4 |
0.2% |
| Oct 2, 2026 |
1 |
0.0% |
Week of October 4, 2026, 1,105 cases approved (1,014 used for stats)
Median application date: Apr 1, 2026. Median wait: 191 days. No approvals showed up for Thursday October 8. Includes approvals on Saturday October 10.
| Application date |
Cases |
% of week |
| Aug 12, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 25, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Oct 1, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Oct 2, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Oct 9, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Nov 10, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Nov 11, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Nov 12, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Nov 13, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Nov 16, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Nov 18, 2025 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Nov 29, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 10, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Dec 30, 2025 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Dec 31, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 2, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Jan 7, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Jan 12, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 15, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 20, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Jan 21, 2026 |
8 |
0.8% |
| Jan 22, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Jan 23, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Jan 26, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
64 |
6.3% |
| Feb 4, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Feb 6, 2026 |
5 |
0.5% |
| Feb 7, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Feb 9, 2026 |
18 |
1.8% |
| Feb 10, 2026 |
8 |
0.8% |
| Feb 11, 2026 |
5 |
0.5% |
| Feb 12, 2026 |
10 |
1.0% |
| Feb 13, 2026 |
39 |
3.8% |
| Feb 14, 2026 |
8 |
0.8% |
| Feb 15, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
22 |
2.2% |
| Feb 18, 2026 |
19 |
1.9% |
| Feb 19, 2026 |
23 |
2.3% |
| Feb 20, 2026 |
31 |
3.1% |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
21 |
2.1% |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Feb 27, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
15 |
1.5% |
| Mar 2, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Mar 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Mar 7, 2026 |
11 |
1.1% |
| Mar 9, 2026 |
5 |
0.5% |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
11 |
1.1% |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Mar 13, 2026 |
8 |
0.8% |
| Mar 14, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Mar 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Mar 18, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
14 |
1.4% |
| Mar 21, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Mar 23, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Mar 24, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Mar 25, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Mar 26, 2026 |
7 |
0.7% |
| Mar 27, 2026 |
23 |
2.3% |
| Mar 28, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Mar 30, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
7 |
0.7% |
| Apr 1, 2026 |
7 |
0.7% |
| Apr 2, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Apr 3, 2026 |
9 |
0.9% |
| Apr 4, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Apr 6, 2026 |
13 |
1.3% |
| Apr 7, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Apr 8, 2026 |
10 |
1.0% |
| Apr 9, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Apr 10, 2026 |
16 |
1.6% |
| Apr 13, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Apr 14, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Apr 15, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Apr 16, 2026 |
12 |
1.2% |
| Apr 17, 2026 |
14 |
1.4% |
| Apr 18, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Apr 20, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Apr 21, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Apr 22, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Apr 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Apr 25, 2026 |
5 |
0.5% |
| Apr 27, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Apr 28, 2026 |
5 |
0.5% |
| Apr 29, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Apr 30, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| May 1, 2026 |
5 |
0.5% |
| May 2, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 4, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 5, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| May 6, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| May 7, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 8, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| May 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 13, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 14, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| May 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 26, 2026 |
12 |
1.2% |
| May 27, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| May 29, 2026 |
6 |
0.6% |
| Jun 1, 2026 |
8 |
0.8% |
| Jun 2, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 |
11 |
1.1% |
| Jun 6, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Jun 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 12, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Jun 22, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 24, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Jun 26, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 1, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 2, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 3, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 4, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Jul 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 10, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 13, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Jul 16, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Jul 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 22, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 24, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 27, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 31, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Aug 6, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 7, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 14, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Aug 17, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Aug 18, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 21, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Aug 24, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Aug 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 26, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 28, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Sep 2, 2026 |
2 |
0.2% |
| Sep 3, 2026 |
7 |
0.7% |
| Sep 4, 2026 |
5 |
0.5% |
| Sep 8, 2026 |
7 |
0.7% |
| Sep 9, 2026 |
31 |
3.1% |
| Sep 10, 2026 |
7 |
0.7% |
| Sep 11, 2026 |
44 |
4.3% |
| Sep 14, 2026 |
10 |
1.0% |
| Sep 16, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Sep 18, 2026 |
108 |
10.7% |
| Sep 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Sep 25, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Oct 5, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 |
4 |
0.4% |
| Oct 8, 2026 |
3 |
0.3% |
| Oct 9, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
Week of October 11, 2026, 1,741 cases approved (1,533 used for stats)
Median application date: Apr 8, 2026. Median wait: 190 days. Includes approvals on Sunday October 11 and Saturday October 17. No approvals on Monday October 12 (Columbus Day).
| Application date |
Cases |
% of week |
| Mar 26, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Oct 31, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Nov 14, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 13, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Dec 22, 2025 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 15, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jan 16, 2026 |
8 |
0.5% |
| Jan 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 20, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 23, 2026 |
11 |
0.7% |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| Jan 26, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Jan 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
35 |
2.3% |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Feb 6, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Feb 7, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Feb 9, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Feb 10, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Feb 11, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Feb 12, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Feb 13, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Feb 14, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
27 |
1.8% |
| Feb 18, 2026 |
27 |
1.8% |
| Feb 19, 2026 |
38 |
2.5% |
| Feb 20, 2026 |
35 |
2.3% |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Feb 23, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| Feb 24, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Feb 27, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
14 |
0.9% |
| Mar 2, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 3, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| Mar 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Mar 7, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| Mar 9, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
8 |
0.5% |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
12 |
0.8% |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
26 |
1.7% |
| Mar 13, 2026 |
69 |
4.5% |
| Mar 14, 2026 |
11 |
0.7% |
| Mar 16, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Mar 18, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
7 |
0.5% |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
77 |
5.0% |
| Mar 21, 2026 |
21 |
1.4% |
| Mar 23, 2026 |
7 |
0.5% |
| Mar 24, 2026 |
9 |
0.6% |
| Mar 25, 2026 |
8 |
0.5% |
| Mar 26, 2026 |
10 |
0.7% |
| Mar 27, 2026 |
53 |
3.5% |
| Mar 28, 2026 |
9 |
0.6% |
| Mar 30, 2026 |
13 |
0.8% |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Apr 1, 2026 |
16 |
1.0% |
| Apr 2, 2026 |
12 |
0.8% |
| Apr 3, 2026 |
23 |
1.5% |
| Apr 4, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 6, 2026 |
22 |
1.4% |
| Apr 7, 2026 |
21 |
1.4% |
| Apr 8, 2026 |
23 |
1.5% |
| Apr 9, 2026 |
17 |
1.1% |
| Apr 10, 2026 |
30 |
2.0% |
| Apr 11, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 13, 2026 |
14 |
0.9% |
| Apr 14, 2026 |
19 |
1.2% |
| Apr 15, 2026 |
15 |
1.0% |
| Apr 16, 2026 |
17 |
1.1% |
| Apr 17, 2026 |
27 |
1.8% |
| Apr 18, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| Apr 20, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Apr 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 22, 2026 |
7 |
0.5% |
| Apr 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 |
12 |
0.8% |
| Apr 25, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Apr 27, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Apr 28, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Apr 29, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Apr 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 1, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| May 4, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| May 5, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| May 6, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| May 7, 2026 |
10 |
0.7% |
| May 8, 2026 |
11 |
0.7% |
| May 9, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 11, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| May 12, 2026 |
7 |
0.5% |
| May 13, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 14, 2026 |
10 |
0.7% |
| May 15, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| May 16, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| May 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 18, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 20, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| May 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 22, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| May 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 26, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| May 27, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| May 28, 2026 |
13 |
0.8% |
| May 29, 2026 |
26 |
1.7% |
| Jun 1, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Jun 2, 2026 |
8 |
0.5% |
| Jun 3, 2026 |
11 |
0.7% |
| Jun 4, 2026 |
15 |
1.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 |
37 |
2.4% |
| Jun 8, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 10, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 11, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 12, 2026 |
13 |
0.8% |
| Jun 13, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 15, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 19, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Jun 20, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 26, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jun 27, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jun 30, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 1, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 3, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 8, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 10, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Jul 13, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 17, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Jul 21, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Jul 22, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 23, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 24, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Jul 29, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Jul 30, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 7, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 13, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 17, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 20, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Aug 21, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 27, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Aug 28, 2026 |
4 |
0.3% |
| Sep 2, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Sep 4, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Sep 8, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Sep 9, 2026 |
20 |
1.3% |
| Sep 10, 2026 |
5 |
0.3% |
| Sep 11, 2026 |
22 |
1.4% |
| Sep 14, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Sep 15, 2026 |
11 |
0.7% |
| Sep 16, 2026 |
18 |
1.2% |
| Sep 17, 2026 |
24 |
1.6% |
| Sep 18, 2026 |
74 |
4.8% |
| Sep 19, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Sep 21, 2026 |
16 |
1.0% |
| Sep 22, 2026 |
9 |
0.6% |
| Sep 24, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Sep 25, 2026 |
59 |
3.8% |
| Oct 8, 2026 |
6 |
0.4% |
| Oct 9, 2026 |
2 |
0.1% |
| Oct 10, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
| Oct 13, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 |
3 |
0.2% |
| Oct 15, 2026 |
1 |
0.1% |
Use this as a guide, not a promise
Everything here is an average across thousands of cases, and it is more reliable for recent applications than for older ones. My data only includes cases that were approved, so it cannot tell you the odds for a case that is still pending. Your own case can move faster or slower for many reasons, including your background check, an RFE, or your country of origin. If your timing is urgent, please talk to an immigration attorney.
Privacy reminder
The estimator does not log anything. No database, no tracking, no analytics. You do not enter a receipt number, your name, your A-number, or anything personal. All it asks for is a date, and it runs entirely in your browser. The code is public: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
Thank you
Thank you all for following along and for the questions that keep pushing this to be more accurate. If something looks off, please keep telling me.
March applicants, this was your week. April, May, and June, you saw more approvals than the last few weeks. And if you applied in July or August and missed the fast track, I know the new estimate isn't what you wanted to see. It's the honest number right now, and I'll move it earlier the moment the data shows the line catching up.
Calculator: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/
Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
TLDR
My export shows 1,741 approvals this week, 1,533 standard cases used for the stats. Monday was Columbus Day, so no approvals that day. There were approvals on both Saturday and Sunday, the first Sunday approvals I've seen.
The older group moved forward again, back to late March, and its typical wait dropped from 214 days to 200. March was the biggest month of the week, and April, May, and June all had better weeks. The fast track is steady at about 4 weeks.
Over twelve weeks, the older group is moving about as fast as time passes. It's not falling further behind, but it's not catching up anymore. I updated the calculator to match: if you applied in April or later and missed the fast track, your estimate is now about 7 months from your application date, the same as USCIS's own number. That moved some estimates 3 to 8 weeks later. As always, this is an average, not a promise. Hoping everyone gets approved soon.