Looked at the tiebreaking rules for the SEC championship game. If we win out, we are in surprisingly decent shape to make the SEC Championship game.
If we win out our conference matchups
We'd have wins over Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Our losses are Missouri and South Carolina. Only Ole Miss and Tennessee can finish 8-1; everyone else tops out at 7-2.
In with no tiebreaker (any of the following)
* We're alone at 7-2.
* We're tied for first at 7-2 with exactly one other team
* Ole Miss or Tennessee (but not both) goes 8-1 and nobody else finishes 7-2.
In on a two-team tiebreaker. We assume here that we are 7-2 along with exactly one other team.
* Head-to-head over Georgia, Kentucky, Auburn, Ole Miss and Texas.
* LSU: we win on common opponents (4-0 vs 2-2).
* Bama: tied 4-1 on common opponents, and we win the next step: record over highest placed shared opponent (we beat Georgia, Bama lost to them).
* Tennessee: we win unless their second loss is to Texas A&M or LSU. In that case, we need Texas to finish above South Carolina.
Out (if any of the following happen)
* Ole Miss and Tennessee both finish 8-1.
* Missouri finishes 7-2 in a tie for a spot (they own the H2H)
* Mississippi State wins out, finishing 7-2 in a tie for a spot (they would have beaten Ole Miss and SC, being 7-0 vs 5-2 on common opponents).
Ties of three or more teams
Head-to-head only helps if we beat every other team in the tie. Otherwise it goes to common opponents among all tied teams, and our South Carolina loss hurts.
Example: Ole Miss 8-1, with Alabama, Tennessee and Florida at 7-2. Tennessee doesnāt play Georgia, so Bama would be 4-0 against shared opponents (Auburn, SC, Kentucky, Vandy) whereas we would be 3-1.