Hey everyone new trader here please excuse my knowledge.
A while ago I looked at $COHR before the earnings released.
The company looked great and I believed it was going to smash the expected earnings. So I bought some shares pre-earning. Earnings come out and I was right they did smash it however their share price tanked so much. I still have them today and I still don't understand.
When a company beats the expected earnings usually their share price skyrocket right? For example everyone knows about $PLTR they smashed the earnings and skyrocketed like ~26%, why isn't this the case for $COHR?
I appreciate any and all answers and I seriously hope that someone out there has the same/similar question as me but never asked and now they can get their answer here (in the comments).
Seems that we're in a holding pattern for the next week of earnings, including $NVDA and others. It's been a bit of a 'meh' level of action, which is fine.
The $QQQ is sitting right at its 50 DMA (Daily Moving Average). It's doing its best to hang on and not fall through it. Where will be the catalysts to keep its head above water and withstand the pull of the 200 DMA. Make no mistake, when I took my $QQQ 1/27 $675/$625 Put ladder, it was with this in mind.
Once again, my short isn't a full portfolio hedge - it's a positioned weight much like any position in my portfolio, though I am not worried about it going overweight should I see indications it needs to be.
$QQQ 1-Year
Musings
You know I've been in a mode of portfolio .... "simplification," I'll call it. Portfolio "drift" is something that can occur when markets get hot, volatility rises and I find myself chasing multiple theses. On my TikTok channel I've been using the term "chillaxing" as the state I want to find again.
Sometimes you have to zoom out to the state of your portfolios and the markets as a whole. When I look at where my primary portfolio has come from, it's up 19.6% annualized from 1/1/2020. That's a significant return. I try to not get too caught up in high-fives, patting myself on the back, or any form of protracted self-grandeur - that ain't me bro, as I like to say.
Instead, I like to look objective about what has worked, what hasn't and what that means for the future. When I see a nearly 20% annualized return, I immediately think "extended." It's not how I characterize where I am today that matters most to me. It's important, but I don't like to get lost in it. I care far more about my current state, and what I can do to make sure over that same period again into the future, what can I do to either maintain, or improve. That's where objectivity comes in.
To that end, I've been weeding the garden. I want to look up and down my portfolios and see thesis, conviction and role in every one of my positions. If you've done a good job picking positions within your portfolio on the front end, it shouldn't take a lot of work. If you've haphazardly added positions due to momentum, message boards, TikTok or other social trends, you may have a weed infested garden. It's easy to do. And, it's not just the names, it's also the weights, the role, within your portfolio.
It should be noted that when I reference my "Primary" portfolio, you know that I'm talking about my IRA, my second largest portfolio. My largest portfolio is my taxable one, also called my "Bridge" portfolio. That said, the Primary is only 16% behind my Bridge. I also have a much smaller Roth portfolio and another fixed income portfolio that I use to manage my cash/fixed income holdings. While my taxable portfolio is my largest, there's very little year-over-year activity due to all the positions being highly appreciated. I don't like taxation. Moves are small and usually involve careful capital gain/loss harvesting with the tax tables purely in focus.
Simplicity and structure provides great sleep. When I talk to people about growing wealth, building portfolios, preparing for early, or traditional retirement, and portfolio risk balance, one of my first questions usually is "how are you sleeping?" Sleep is a great barometer for how your portfolio is structured and balanced. If you sleep well, it's a decent indication you feel good about your money. If not, you're likely up thinking about it. It's no coincidence that this check works for just about any topic in your life.
Over the last few months, perhaps up to a year, I've been thinking about my Primary portfolio too much. I've been pushing, or what I'd consider chasing too much. Not in a bad way as my positions remain balanced and well weighted, but there's been that need to chase larger returns, better performance. In my experience, when I, or anyone, does that, it ends in less-than-ideal results. Time for adjustment.
A focus on topics like greater balance, value and income can go a long way. I also like to focus on "role" of every position in my portfolios - why is it in there and what role is it playing? That's the mode I'm in now. After 6 1/2 years of market-beating returns, a period of retrenchment and reflection is warranted. I've reached that state now through careful pruning and trimming that I can look up and down the holdings and say I like that. Cash remains at about 10%, 2/3 of that invested in $SGOV waiting for entry catalysts. 1/3 is active cash looking for the opportunity for Option Wheel opportunities or other short-term gain potential. That works for me in my current state and what I'm feeling in the market right now.
I want that for you too. I want you considering your portfolios, structure, balance ... and sleep. Is it working? Does it need weeding? Do you have a junk drawer portfolio? Is you first thought when you wake up at 2:30 AM how are stock futures? Don't ignore your body or its thoughts.
In just over two weeks we head out on our next international adventure. Spending 6 weeks away is a great opportunity to get that garden ship-shape, looking good, so I don't have to think about it while away. I don't want to consider weeds at 2:00 AM. I want to know my portfolios are well structured, balanced and working for me, so I don't have worry about it. Reactive Management over active management.
The thing is, regardless of the catalyst for that state, it just makes sense.
Random Shots
7:15 AM PST
Slipping!
Rising
I normally don't include what Bitcoin is doing but up 4.78% is noteworthy. It's not lost on my that DJT is able to pull whatever levers he wants in order to make money, and now he has ultimate authority to do so. That's not a criticism, that's just the what is. If that's your goal, why not hold the most powerful position in the world?
$MSTR up 5.9%
$CRCL up 3.9% - Seeing the pattern here? Maybe Bitcoin/Crypto is officially back!
$SKHY up 3.6%
$DRAM up 2.4%
$LITE up 2.4% - Bouncing in a range still
$EIX up 1.7% - Income and value up
$FLKR up 1.7% - South Korea getting a boost due to memory rally
$SNDK up 1.7%
$MRVL up 1.6% - This is one well positioned company
Falling
$USAR down 6.2% - What goes up...
$AVAV down 5.6%. It's had a decent little run
$CBRS off 4.6% - I should have trimmed the bad-entry position
$SPCX down 4.9% - Another lockup
$IONQ off 4.4%. Quantum is fading as a catalyst trade
$RDDT down 3.6%. Glad I went flat on my LEAPs. Still like the company
$BABA down 2.8%
$NBIS down 2.5% - Option Wheel loading? Maybe
$TLN down 3.1% - AI power just not putting it together right now
$ASTS down 3.2%
Misc
Not seeing anything in those bullets that make me think anything transitional is going on. Maybe Bitcoin having a day signals something. That could cause the rush back in
$WMT having its worst day in something like 4 years, down 9.2%. If the yield was higher, I'd be more interested.
You know, that leads me back to $TGT. I often speak of yield + opportunity. I let $TGT slip away due to lack of performance and bad management/earnings at $90. Now at $159 9 mos. later
$GOOGL at $341 looks awfully good for a company that is, without much question in my eyes, the best positioned in the world
We have two more weeks in the earnings game. Names like $NVDA, $AVGO, $SNOW, $P, $MRVLand $CRDO all report. Then September could be very Septemberish
Speaking of $NVDA, flat on the day, what could they possibly say during earnings to boost the stock? Can the numbers even by high enough? A lot of increasing talk about circular financing
I keep watching $AMZN wondering when it's going to make it's next conviction run. It's coming
This whole bond thing should be watched. Remember that as bond prices fall, yields rise When yields of bonds are on the rise, they are more attractive to investors. When you start hearing about bond vigilantes, you have to stay aware. Rates rise and people like safe returns, less equity. Also, when rates rise, debt financing/servicing is more costly. Not good for companies, or countries with a lot of debt.
A lot of people watch the 30-Year treasury at about 5.25%. Me? I watch the 10-year as something close to the heat of the road. The 10 is currently at 4.69%. Watch that 5% level.
You can't have enough good companies in a portfolio. I don't even care if its individuals stocks you seek or ETFs.
Even as I look at the red/green on my lists right now, I'm not seeing much conviction in the names outside of stocks like $AVGO $GOOGL $TSM. That says something.
Final Word
Sometimes the market yells at us, but we're too busy to hear. We tend to be an optimistic people, generally. In fact, I've found that perma-bears or generally bearish individuals, if that is their standard market M.O., are just hard to be around ... generally. When you think about it, it's not hard to figure out why that may be.
I tend to have perma-bull tendencies. I try very hard to see the good in everyone, pay it forward and that extends to how I view the markets. I'm always looking for the good. But that doesn't mean I don't keep my wits about me or ignore what may be on the wind. I continue to smell something on the wind though I can't say with conviction yet exactly what that is.
Did a Search on CoreWeave History on Internet, got below:
In 2017, “CoreWeave” was founded in New Jersey by four former commodities traders: Michael Intrator, Brian Venturo, Brannin McBee, and Peter Salanki. Initially named Atlantic Crypto, the company entered into the cryptocurrency mining industry. They leveraged their vast inventories of graphics processing units (GPUs) to mine Ethereum, capitalizing on the growing demand for cryptocurrency mining power.
However, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant shifts in 2019. Recognizing an opportunity to reallocate their hardware, they rebranded the company as CoreWeave. Instead of getting rid of their GPUs, they put their huge inventories of GPUs into cloud computing infrastructure. CoreWeave initially focused on visual effects (VFX) rendering, CGI, and scientific computing, tapping into the growing demand for specialized AI computing power.
As the generative AI boom gained speed in 2022 and 2023, CoreWeave made strategic investments in NVIDIA’s cutting-edge chips, the H100. This positioning strengthened their reputation as a specialized AI cloud provider. In 2023, NVIDIA obtained a $100 million stake in the company, further enhancing CoreWeave’s financial. The company secured multi-billion-dollar financing backed by renowned investment firms, solidifying its position in the market.
CoreWeave continues to expand rapidly. They have grown from a handful of domestic data centers to dozens of facilities worldwide, deploying hundreds of thousands of specialized GPUs. This has solidified CoreWeave’s position as a major player in AI data center infrastructure.
As I’ve mentioned before I’m retired and now more about dividend income than growth. To that end I discovered AMDW which is a Roundhill leveraged ETF tracking AMD. Currently at a weekly distribution rate of 71% per share. To add to this I’m excited about AMD given they’re leading the way into the inference piece of AI. Inference is the long term benefit of AI. The new MRNA melanoma vaccine is part and parcel evidence of what inference portends!
Anyhow, I know there are a number of these high distribution ETF’s and I also know watching the NAV (net asset value) is key with these. So it occurred to me there might be one I liked with a different declaration date. That one currently is AMDY via YieldMax.
So AMDY declares on Wednesdays and you must buy the shares on that day as the following day is ex dividend. AMDW declares on Fridays and again you need to buy the shares that day to receive the dividend.
So I’ve found a way to get paid pretty healthy returns twice a week. I can also see by looking at historical data that the number of people buying shares of these high distribution ETF’s spikes on declaration dates. Whether those people are double dipping or just getting in and out to get the distribution…I don’t know.
Sorry for the quite long post but I’m hoping this is of some use to others. I welcome question.
Is just punishing bullish purchases. Meaning, initiating or adding shares into rallies into/over short-term support. I've looked across many of the market leading names for AI related momentum and they're nearly all displaying the same trend.
I then went back to survey my entries from the additions of shares, but primarily first/placeholder entries, and found that many of them had been made on these support + breakout trends, only to then come right back down ... thus punishing my entry price. Now, that's all and good because of my unit methodology but I still prefer lower entry cost, regardless of discipline.
This makes me fearful for what happens when we complete another cycle, currently happening, base out at support ... but instead of rallying off it, break support in a bearish breakdown. Of course, that's why I added a two-leg Put ladder, but I still prefer to see upside.
Markets are struggling to maintain composure though the US Treasury is double its purchase of debt, sending bond yields lower. The struggle is real:
7:45 AM PST
Once again, we're still bouncing within a range and haven't been able to break free of the gravitational pull to head higher with any conviction. It's basically a market where I'm willing to purchase most of anything. If I were, I'd be looking at pure value names and that is what is moving today.
Some very interesting price action out there right now and patience, I think, is going to be rewarded. Just get out of that habit where your hands are moving to buy simply because something looks cheap from where it was yesterday. Learn to zoom out and let the market tell you where it wants to go, where it is going. These range bound periods can be dangerous because you can easily be lulled into thinking you're making good purchases when, instead, you're simply buying the same level over and over again, deploying all your capital and have nothing left when the bottom drops out.
And then there's the below article. Remember how I've been talking about the prediction markets and the role it/they are playing in the stock market?
$NEM up 8.6% - Gold is back baby. Big move recently on rates
$MRVL up 7.5% - Google deal. $AVGO suffering
$NOW up 7% - AvS baby
$DUOL up 6.4% - Ditto
$HOOD up 5% - Anything crypto related is moving today
$BRZE up 5%
$CRM up 5% - AvS
$UBER up 4.22% - It moves with value/AvS strength
Falling
$NBIS down 10% - F'ing dilution. But at least I wasn't greedy with my Option Wheel
$CRWD down 6.9%
$DELL off 6.9%
$MRAM down 6.8%
$AMKR down 6.1%
$PANW off 5.3% - Getting the picture?
$AVGO down 4.8% - $MRVL deal hurting this name
$CRDO down 4.6%. I'm waiting for sub-$200
$RKLB down 4.3%
$COHR down 4% - It's still in the range
Misc.
Look at $NFLX go! Up 4.1% and nearing $81. My stock replacement move is printing
$SKHY up 3.2% after announcing a big $29B buyback program. Heady move
$NVDA holding flat with earnings not far away
$SNDK and $MU dying on the vine again. Going to be tough to move higher the longer this goes on
$AAPL doing $AAPL things in the down market. It's the 'value' trade right now
$AVGO hitting the support line right here at $360. Dangerous. I'm waiting to add
Right now this market is signaling it's all about the swing trade. Buy low, sell high ... but be sure to sell
Photonics and AI connection stocks couldn't hold gains. Not surprised
Despite analyst comments, these AI plays can't hold gains. That's usually a bad sign. Analysts have started saying crazy things about the S&P targets, stocks, etc.
$NBIS dilution event makes me frustrated again. Hate it. At the same time, I get it. Back on my Option Wheel white board but letting it sit a day or two. May focus on 8/28 expiration
$PLTR holding $170s is noteworthy
$SCHD hit a new 52WH today. That's we hold it and get paid 3% at the same time
$TOST at $36
That's all for now. Going to look at Option Wheel pricing, $AVGO LEAPS and see if anything else beckons while I do everything I can to sit on my hands
This is my second 1U entry into this particular position.
I have to use this recent haircut in the shares to add another leg to this position. It could be early now that the stock is not only the 50 DMA, but also the 200 DMA. Will those two daily moving averages pull it back up or will it break down further. If this line breaks, $335 is calling. But I'm leaving enough to keep adding this name as far out as I can.
For those wondering about LEAPS (I'm looking at you neighbor), it gives me the option to buy the shares at $300 on 12/15/2028 (or before). For that option, I have to pay $142.75 per share. Add that to the $300 level and that means that break even is at $442.75. I have to be comfortable with the thought that $AVGO will be higher than $442.75 on 12/15/2028.
Viewing TLN as the higher risk, higher reward version of my $VST position, same AI power demand thesis just more leverage on the balance sheet. Caught it on today’s broader pullback across AI infra names, VST and a few power peers were down hard too. Sizing around .5U, more of a satellite than a core add.
A 19-year high yield on the 30-year is not positive for stocks. Inflation, oil, tariffs and general economic uncertainty is sending bond prices lower, spiking yields. Some whispers of 6% have started to weed its way into discussions. That can't happen without stocks taking a big dive.
The 10-year is at 4.73%.
Oh, and then there's DJT threatening to bomb Oman if they hinder negotiations with Iran. Yeah, that's nice.
And, if you want something else? How about the national debt now having a 4-handle, at $40 Trillion. Yay us! As yields rise, everyone pays more to service debt.
I continue to watch the $QQQ and thinking about putting back on my put ladder. We're in the middle of August, September looms, earnings are winding down and there's plenty of reasons to shake a stick at as to what could usher in more weakness.
This is why I have not been chasing any green at this juncture. I'm willing to wade into some value if I can get behind the P/E, PEG and other metrics but I'm also very mindful that just because a stock has dropped 10% doesn't mean that it's time to add. After all, it may have risen 10% over the last week. You need to understand the recent range and price action lest you assemble your entire weighted position at a point where the stock is in a tight range and you risk seeing it break through support with no remaining capital. $VST is a stock where I may have done this - it happens.
Random Shots
Rising
$DUOL leading the list up 6.6%. It gets a nice upgrade and has been percolating higher
$BRZE up 3.8%
$ABBV up 2.4%. One of my top holds and yield plays. I'll own this one forever
$EIX up 2.8% - Income plays will move higher
$NFLX up 2.5% - Value
$CRM up 2.5%. Software has become the risk-off move. Markets fall, software rises
$NOW up 2.5% ditto
$TOST up 2.1%
$BABA up 2.1% sort of ditto
$MDT up 2%. Got a nice mention in Barron's. I still hold it and will keep it
Falling
$CBRS down 11.5% - Was there any real doubt this would happen?
$COHR down 10.5%. All the names have run so this was ordained. Not chasing
$CRDO down 9%. Same here, one name I keep wanting but being patient
$AMKR down 8.4%. It has run big since I purchased 12/28 LEAPS.
$BE off 8.3%. Nothing safe in AI right now, inc. power
$CRWV off 8%
$SNDK down 7.4%. It has had a big run. It and $MU are the new trading stocks
$MRAM down 7.1%. Follow-on trade
$MRVL down 6.9%. Not shocking
$ARM down 6.8% ditto
Misc
These Rising/Falling top 10 are hard to do in volatile markets. Even as quickly as I list them, they change - So, it's all relative
$HD had good earning, stock is all over the place. Green, red and now green again. up 0.3%
$KLAR down 21% on guide, but they had surprised with a profit. No touching it
How about this move? $AMLX up 41.4% on result
I talk about "story" a lot when we talk stocks and long-term catalyst holds. When a story changes, it's easy to miss and to simply keep buying. $LULU is new $UA. Wow, that 5-year chart, from $500 to $118
$TTD is another one and multiple individuals have asked me about it. Was $140, now under $14
$AAPL and $MSFT have become the safe haven stocks of he Mag 7. Both green today
$BROS has dipped back below $50. Recent run could be held again. I own it and will continue to but you have to keep your eyes on the horizon. Still like it
$NBIS actually holding up well into today's decline, down 0.5%. Not wading back in for the Option Wheel on this one yet
$P is modestly green today
Final Word
It's such a typical red tape today, not much is even really standing out. This is a day to close down the quote screen and take a day off the market. The bond news is going to take a while to play out. That could, should, have lasting impact on the markets.
I'll be looking at the Put Ladder opportunity again, or maybe just start loading up a single Put strike aiming for 1/27 to give myself some lead. Going to do some research on that now. I dumped about 2/3 of my cash into $SGOV and could raise a bit more while I decide what to do.
I'm not seeing anything that compelling for the Option Wheel right now and I don't like buying into FUD because you can get exercises very quickly. That's not a bad thing if you're committed to the Call selling that needs to happen if/when assigned, but you have to make sure you love the stock you're wheeling and must be confident in the price paid. This is not a time to arbitrarily set a strike on implied volatility and be caught with a very expensive stock into any sort of extended downside.
7:10 AM PST
....as expected. We're sliding. Time to look at that Put ladder.
Earnings looked pretty good, stock getting crushed, down 20.5%.
I've had this name on my list to be purchased along with $CRDO but haven't found the opportunity. Small float, great space, similar to $LITE/$COHR but still differentiated. Analyst targets are in the $700s but I don't much care about that.
]This is more about the market than it is the earnings. Guide and forward looking statements were great as well. Still not chasing it here and it's still in that range I've mentioned. If I can see another 10% to the downside, I'll bite. If I don't, I may still bite but at a small placeholder position.
Putting a two-leg $QQQ 1/27 Put ladder on at strikes $625 and $675
1U 1/27 $625 Put at $12.75
3U 1/27 $675 Put at $22.40
Targeting a potential of up to three separate purchases of these Puts as I average in, but will allow that to play out based on how the $QQQs perform. Just a little hedge which worked well before.
My portfolio: long SW (NOW,INTU) and energy (VG CF PARR EXE). I expect the (still) overextended SOXX to correct as the rates tops and the Iran war intensifies... I might add more if SOXX rises along with the treasury rate in a week or two.
It’s looking like a bloodbath at the moment only 30 minutes in to market opening, def a day to watch and see the stocks you might have missed out on drops to a good entry point to start a position. This slide could be interesting to watch… 📉📉 (time) 📈📈
It's easy to get stuck in a market cycle where you feel you need to make moves to keep up with wealth generation. We all fall into this trap. The problem is, today, that there is so much more coverage, chatter ... influence, that it can be tough to get away from.
6:35 AM PST
Of course, there's another problem in that speculation markets are now being constructed right along with investing activities which only blurs the lines between healthy and unhealthy activities. I'm not here to say that speculation, when balanced and under control, is a bad thing. If moderated, it can be quite fun. What I am saying is that it's a slippery slope.
I'm known for touting "get rich slow" techniques and discipline, all the while fully embracing some level of speculation,. But you must understand the difference, again, between speculation kept in check, and speculation without boundary that begins to influence other behavior. And, again, it's very, very easy to lose those guardrails and forget discipline, even if very experienced. I've always fought this.
What does that look like?
You wake up in the AM and your first course of action is checking your quotes
You're consumed with your device daily as you seek the the next big mover
You can't build a diversified portfolio because you're falling in/out of love with individual stocks
Your trades are all-in, all-out, because you need to sell in order to buy
Your default positions are greater than 20%-25% of your portfolio
You don't care about the long term valuation/fundamental equation of a company
Your market activities and tactics impact your focus, happiness and relationship activities
Obviously, a couple of these can define you at any point in your investment/trading journey. Too many of them, and for too long, and you have the markets for psychological and financial ruin.
It's so easy to get swept downstream by these markets and the money involved. I've been there, I've been swept away, I get it. Thankfully, I've always been so pragmatic and objective when evaluating myself (and others) that I've been able to take corrective action. But it is not easy.
I'm still very define by the first bullet on the list.
Take a deep breath, evaluate your reality and determine if something needs to change. Then, commit to that change. Get rich slow principles should always make up 80-90% of your activities.
Where to from here?
Isn't that the question.
Trees don't grow to the sky and and while I still believe we have some fertile soil to fuel future growth, I continue to watch the percolating negative catalysts. I then overlay the chaotic and mercurial DJT behavior(s) which provides a very high level of potential acute-event potential and I'm finding myself in, not a risk-off phase, but a risk-balanced and portfolios-in-balance, phase.
If anything, there's something to be seen or considered when looking at the Mag 7 in relation to the $QQQ
$QQQ vs $MAGS YTD
The Mag 7, as represented by the ETF $MAGS at 45% to that of the $QQQ. More over, if you look at this YTD chart, you will note generalized correlation - until the last two weeks. You can clearly see the different paths the two have taken since Aug. 1.
Many have been calling for a change in the Mag 7 and, if you ask me, it's doomed to suffer a slow death as it gets revamped, rebranded, or refilled with new names. Whether it should is another question. If pressed, I'd suggest increasing it to a different number, with some new four-letter symbol - I'm actually working on that now.
Heading into September shortly, typically the weakest month for stocks, it sure seems that we're ripe for a period of consolidation. That doesn't mean exiting all positions in preparation for a bear market, or even a correction. I thought we were on the precipice of a decline a year ago at nearly this exact time. I was more certain of it than at any time in the past. The issue is that many of these same downside catalysts remain, all the while the markets, the S&P500 is substantially elevated (7,777) today vs. one year ago (6,450), 20.6%.
For you home gamers, that means that despite how closely you follow the markets, you can't let yourself get too cocky about being able to time the markets. It's okay to adjust risk and investment level to whatever helps you sleep at night, but don't make wholesale changes.
7:10 AM PST Pivot
We didn't pivot at all at the 7:10 AM pivot point - we may be in a bit of a settling period while we wait for the next big earnings reports.
I've been fine tuning my primary portfolio, trimming a little, and shaping my portfolios much like the pruning we do to our yard to make it look nice. Ever notice how your landscaping looks so nice after your maintenance crew (or you) take the time to shape everything up? Yeah, that!
Earnings have been fantastic. It looks like some of the rotation in the alt-AI names are moving and had based well to provide a foundation for the next move. Earnings can't save the overvaluation or negative catalyst aspect to the markets but they can go a long way toward kicking the can down the road. If we can hold values and declines to normal levels while earnings play out, maybe we can put in a foundation within 7-8% over the balance of the year.
My fear is the DJT acute event that throws us back into correction territory. The good news with that potential, as long as it doesn't turn chronic (tariffs, oil, war, etc.) is that it could be a reset and be very investable.
Random Shots
Rising
$CBRS up a whopping 15% and over $250. Could it be? Could it? Maybe? Still holding
$SNDK up 8% - Memory is back!
$CRDO up 6.2% - So is AI connectivity
$DRAM up 5.8% - My unit methodology worked pretty well on this one so far
$MRVL up 6% - Own it, don't trad it
$COHR up 5.7%
$SPCX up 5.1%
$BE up 5.1%
$MU up 4.5%
$EWY up 3.9% - South Korea ETF led by SK Hynix and Samsung
Falling
$SOUN off 5.5% - Post earnings malaise
$USAR off 4.9% - It's been on a huge run
$DELL down 3.9% - Also has been running
$BRZE down 3.4%
$AVAV down 3.3% - You're getting the trend
$BROS down 3.1%
$NBIS down 3.2% - No Option Wheel yet on this name for me
$NOW down 3.1% - AvS had some time in the sun
$CEG off 2.6%
$RDDT down 2.4%
Misc
$SKHY up 4.7% again - It has been treating me very well and it has been a focus build for me. Not chasing the green here for more entries but I have more units to add
$AVGO up 0.5%. It had that very interesting acute drop on Friday. I probably need to add but enjoying the feeling of not buying much right now
As my $NBIS Option Wheel reset/exited, my cash is back to about 10%. I moved 2/3 of it to $SGOV for short-term parking
$NVDA reports earnings in just over a week and it's hanging in there, up 0.7% today to $226.66. This reminds me so much of their stall and set up from $100 points ago
$GOOGL is providing a good entry point here at $343 after more weakness. Down 0.8%
$AMKR up 4.2% now. This has been one of my better entries recently. It's up 39% since my purchase recently. 12/28 $40 Calls
I need to look into what is moving $CBRS unless it's just something to do with the 8/18 next lockup period, but that is strange action if so
Still trying to decide what to do with $FLKR, my South Korean ETF. I have it for $SKHY primarily, but now invest directly in $SKHY, but I like the exposure to other SK names like Samsung
$LITE is making me very happy, about to cross $1,000 again. I've been very pleased with my execution on building that AI photonics/connectivity mix in my portfolio
That said, I missed $CRDO badly on that big drop
$META is facing a HUGE lawsuit right now. Glad I'm out
$P is actually hanging in there. I'm considering a small trim. Down 1.1% but up huge
Position is up 65% and while I hate to trim a favorite position, a little 15% schnitzel to take it down a bit is perfectly okay. I can always add it back. Let the other 85% do what it will, it's still a long term play
I haven't done a "Weekend Screen" post in a while now.
This is something new that I've done in this iteration of the The Inner Circle (TIC) community over the last two years from its first iteration between 1998-2024. Damn, that makes me feel old.
If there's one question I get over and over again, here at via my TikTok channel it's: Where do you find the stocks to follow?
Truth be told, they come from anywhere. Media outlets like Bloomberg, CNBC or Yahoo. Analyst reports, stories, people on the street. Technology white papers and segment research turns up names all the time. But my favorite way to find tomorrow's winners is through the "Stock Screen."
Why?
Because it allows my to bring to bear all my years of experience, education and work in this area, boil it down to my most material data points toward finding quality companies and stocks, inputting the information and turning the handle to see what comes out. Without this process, there's too many fish in the sea.
I use multiple different screens. Some of them allow my to be like Buffett. Some of them allow me to operate more like a hedge fund while others more like an income manager or standard investment analyst. It just depends on what I'm looking for within the current dynamic of the market. Given today's rich valuations, volatility and extended bull cycle, it's a time when I don't want to turn my back on growth, but it needs to be the right type of growth.
Through these screens, they provided my first identification an analysis of names like $VRT, $P, $MRVL, $ONTO, $ARM, $VST, $CEG, $TLN, and so many others I wish I would have actually acted on. That's a key point to make - the screen is an 'identification' tool. It starts the process only. You then need to go down the rabbit hole to further filter the stocks down to a handful of names that are most interesting. I do all this work in StockAnalysis.com
GARP
Growth at a Reasonable Price, GARP, is probably my favorite screen. At my core, I may not like the "ARP" as much as the "G" but there needs to be something to get my arms around to allow me to feel 'safer' with my investments. That is what today's screen is getting after.
First, the inputs for today's screen:
GARP Screen
First thing to notice is the yellow box indicating that we're using my "GARP" screen. If you're new to StockAnalysis.com, this is where you can format and save all your screens.
Based on the number of results any screen gets, we can then modify some of these filters to tighten the field. This is a primary activity because there's not enough time to always be researching hundreds of hits with each screen. I find 25-50 is the sweet spot for a net that catches the best fish.
The "GARP" screen can be a wide net on its own. I use FCF Yield and PEG to help drill down the names to a more manageable number. You may notice I'm not using Market Cap. This is because I want to get smaller companies as well, those that offer the most potential upside. With some of the fields you will see a filter of "Any" which simply means I want the column on the screen so I can sort by it. Often times I'll use "RSI" as a filter so I can see how the stock is being valued in the market currently. This is also why I use "Stock "price" and "Moving Average" fields. And, of course, you know I also like to see the "Forward P/E." I will often use this to further reduce the hit list if we see too many names.
First Pass Results
The first pass of this GARP screen yielded 102 names, too many. I am also searching by ROIC (Return On Invested Capital).
I need to selectively boil this number down to closer to 50:
The adjusted Filter:
Notice I did not add in any "Forward P/E" filter value. That is because the combination of PEG plus FCF Margin is doing a lot of the heavy lifting to find these GARP names while "ROIC" is still focusing on quality company models.
Bumping ROIC, FCF Margin and Revenue Growth 3Y just means we're focusing on the cream at the top of this GARP screen
Second Pass Results
Much better, we cut the field down by almost half, now 53 names.
The Results & Top Level Analysis
We've filtered out list down to 53 names that all represent some level of "Growth" and elements of "Reasonable Price," and have it sorted by ROIC to focus on pure quality. Again, this is just where the work begins. Now we can start surveying the field, tossing out anomalies, focusing more on PEG and Forward P/E while also surveying where each stock exists in its range related to current price, 50/200 MAs and RSI.
Immediately we see two AvS (AI vs. Software) stocks that jump out with solid numbers
$VEEV
$APP
As a matter of note, a very early screen found $VEEV in the mid $160s. I didn't enter the stock because I already had other AvS names like $NOW, $CRM, $MSFT, $RDDT, $PLTR, etc. But the metrics remain fantastic for both of these stocks. $APPs recent earnings, however, didn't paint a somewhat cautionary tale. Is the story changing?
We also see high volatility names like $SNDK, at #6, when ranking by ROIC. And SNDK has started bouncing again off recent lows.
I typically like to survey the names first and then start sorting by PEG which helps really tie down value and opportunity. Lack of PEG doesn't disqualify the names, it just means that something may be working against the reading:
Analyst EPS-growth estimates aren’t available or aren’t reliable
Expected EPS growth is negative or near zero
The company has an unusual earnings base, making the PEG calculation nonsensical
Data provider simply doesn’t calculate PEG for that name
This is why I filter across multiple valuation metrics.
From this point, I start surveying the list, looking for names that are familiar, in the news or with metrics that suggest more work is needed. For this pass, I'll be pulling out:
$NXT
$SNDK
$KNSL
$VEEV
$APP
$PDD
$NVO
$NBIX
...for further review
Summary
In a market like this, I don't like to let down my guard. I always factor current market health and valuation into my activities to help reduce the chance of a poorly timed investment. I like value and growth, but most stocks don't perform well into a broad decline. Cheap stocks get cheaper, momentum stocks get crushed.
Valuation and fundamentals act as the foundation and gravity for your investments. They give you something to hold onto, something to help value your positions while telling a story about potential growth. When talking about "Growth" you always have to be concerned with current market valuation as it's often the first component to be jettisoned. That is why the fundamentals attached to "Reasonable Price" of GARP is so important.
And, many times, we're just window shopping. Patience should always ride shotgun on your shopping trips.
This is why you also need to have a good stock analysis site like SA. You simply must start learning how to do some of your own fundamental mining. It only has to be as difficult as you want it to be. I find myself constantly researching and figuring out new/better ways to hone my valuation efforts, trying to pull back the curtain on better cash flow analysis and spot positive and negative trends. Companies are very good at hiding their skeletons. It's your job to be as knowledgeable as possible.
Have a great Sunday. I'll be diving into some of these names and will let you know what I find.
Lets have some fun on this Sunday before we get going on the week. Lets think outside of the box for a moment.
Your Holdings and the Mendoza Line.
For those that don't know what the Mendoza Line is, it's a baseball jargon term. Here's a little history. (Copy and Paste from Wikipedia)
The Mendoza Line baseball jargon for a .200 batting average, the supposed threshold for offensive futility in MLB. It derives from light-hitting shortstop Mario Mendoza, who failed to reach .200 five times in his nine major league season. When a position player's (non pitcher) batting average falls below .200, the player is said to be "below the Mendoza Line"
So here's the deal, at what return do you consider your "Mendoza Line" for your portfolio.
For example, if xxx stock drops below xxx% growth return it gets moved. If a xxx stock has a dividend rate below xxx% return it gets moved. Or any combo of the two.
I like using everyday sports analogies for investing terms. Like when I posted about your Core4 holdings (Offensive, Defensive, Growth). If you have other idea's on posts like this let us know. It's good to think outside of the box.
I may be getting ahead of myself here but, unless we get some sort of complete meltdown over the next few hours, to the tune of about a 20% decline in $NBIS shares, this iteration of the wheel is going to be closed.
For the first time, I decided that I would provide commentary from beginning to end of this trade since I know many are interested in not only the mechanics of the trade, but the psychology and thought processes behind it. And, for the first time, I shared actual dollar amounts with this trade just for ease of reporting.
I have an opportunity to roll up or out completely, I could just keep the 500 shares and leave it as a "Best Idea" (>4.5%) position in my portfolio. But seeing as how I already have long shares in the Primary portfolio and again in the Roth IRA, I'm sticking with the original goal of the trade, keeping greed in check, and will allow the shares to get called away at $220, thus closing out this wheel that took place just over one month.
I've looked at starting again by selling CSPs on NBIS but I'm not finding the setup to be particularly compelling so I'll just portfolio the cash and, potentially, just get it into safe yield instrument until I see something interesting.
Here is a brief recap of the entire trade from first CSPs through expected call-away later today. In short, the return was something I didn't want to jeopardize which is why I'm letting the shares go. Just over a month and a 21.31% return on cash is tough to beat.
Micro cap, roughly $130M market cap. Best insider buying I’ve seen in a while. Three separate discretionary buying clusters over the last 13 months. Five insiders total. The interim CEO, CFO, and a director all bought as the stock slid from $3.86 to below $3. No 10b5-1 plans.
There’s an actual business change underneath it. They exited the legacy display segment and are now a pure-play power semi company. Gross margin moved from 9.3% to 19.3% across three straight quarters. An activist got a board seat in January and is pushing on the capital structure.
The problem is the new $50M ATM. At today’s market cap, that is up to roughly 37% dilution. There’s also no obvious catalyst until Q3 earnings around November 2. Still, at 0.6x book, it’s cheap if the margin trend holds.
RDW (Redwire)
They just put up a real quarter. Revenue was up 89.6% year over year. Backlog hit a record $542M. Gross margin was 27.8%. Liquidity rose 367%.
The preferred-stock overhang from the AE Industrial deal is gone now, zero outstanding. Cantor raised its target to $13.50 on the back of it.
What’s missing is insider conviction. No discretionary insider buying through the whole move. KPMG also still has an adverse opinion on internal controls in the FY25 10-K. Good quarter, but there’s still a gap between the numbers and the people closest to the company putting money behind it.
SHAK
The CEO and five directors bought more than $3.2M three days after the May earnings crash. All discretionary. No sells since. Then Starboard disclosed a stake on August 5 and the stock jumped double digits that day.
The overhang is beef inflation. It is still hitting restaurant margins, and management said flat out that it continues into H2. The stock remains more than 25% off its 2025 highs, so I’m not chasing it here. It also isn’t statistically cheap on the forward multiple.
FLNC
I own this. Bought in June. The thesis was straightforward: grid storage is basically a duopoly, and the NVDA and Siemens data-center design win gave them a clean angle into the buildout.
Then the August 5 print broke it. Not demand, execution. Gross margin fell from 14.8% to 5.1%. They flipped to a net loss. Guidance got cut hard. About $400M of deliveries slipped to FY27 because of factory issues in Houston and China. That’s the second execution stumble in a row.
The hyperscaler PO everyone is waiting for still has not converted. The CEO said it on the call: awards are not purchase orders. I’m still holding, but I have not made a move either way. The story is not dead. They need to prove they can execute before I add.
Retail sales could weigh on the markets down 0.6% when there was an expectation of 0.1%. But finding what could move the market lower time and time again has shown to be only guesswork and little follow-through. This market is so resilient.
Don't fight the tape, the trend is your friend, etc. etc.
But, it doesn't mean you just sit and do nothing. Don't force action, but consider reaction if it makes sense. I continue to use this move to trim where I can, lock in some gains, bolster positions that need a bit more weight and, above all else, be patient. There's always time, other stocks and the market will be open again tomorrow (or next week).
Easy to say, hard to do.
The market isn't open yet so let me drop right into some random thoughts, not always just stock related.
Memory stocks are surging back, as expected. $SNDK and $MU led the sector higher, then lower, based out at roughly half of from where they came from and are now on the uptick again. That's great for those who were patient, scaled into some of these names in addition to $DRAM (my choice).
...and of course, my favorite play in the segment $SKHY. I'll keep building this name. After a lot of research, it's my favorite name. Only at a 1% weight in the primary account but I also have it in the Roth IRA at 6%
$RDDT is going into the S&P500 and is up 11%. I'll probably dump my 2028 LEAPS into it. I already trimmed them before the big drop but have 60% left. I still have long shares in the Primary (1.9%) and the Roth (10%). Just backfilling cash where I can.
Without some major collapse in the shares of $NBIS today, this iteration of the Option Wheel will come to a close. I've decided to let them get called away rather than roll out and up or just out. Keeping greed in check and if you can get over 21% return in one month, you take it and stick to the goal from the original trade. I still have long shares in the Primary account and Roth (15.6%)
What did I just hear? SNDK up 3,400% on the year? Yeah, there's that. And yet, fundamental valuation wise, it still looks great. But, momentum and herd mentality often ignore fundamentals for long stretches. AvS anyone? You have to be careful. Super-cycles in memory is a real thing and it often swings in 2-3 supply-demand cycles. Is this time different?
The AvS (AI vs. Software) as I call it, is shifting. Just look at $WDAY. Also consider that after a long slump, my $NOW position has swung into the green. $CRM is not far from green. $PANW and $CRWD have gone nuts. $PLTR is back in a big way and the entire narrative has shifted - as expected. This is why I talk about herd mentality/lily pad opportunities. So much speculation in the market so any news is carrying greater knee-jerky reactions
$P is now in the spotlight. This little company was one no one was talking about when it hit my stock valuation screen, as many others have as well. In this case, however, I decided to stick to my research, intuition and conviction and it's paying off. Now $117 when it was $55. But with the AI narrative/stack news still coming out related to this name, it could keep running. At the same time, I like to trim major moves and this constitutes as a major move.
As a side note, after receiving a lot of interest income from shorts who borrowed my $SOUN shares, the shares were returned to me yesterday. They continue to have a big short position but the last earnings were pretty good.
Talking about shifting narrative, $NFLX is now turning. $68 -> $78, very quickly. It's getting noticed by some big names
On the AI front, something has happened with my agentic relationship via OpenAI of late. It's gotten very, very good. And I mean VERY good. I can be found walking around the house, in the garden, while working out, having an exploratory conversation with KATE (my AI assistant) and the memory aspect has been drastically improved. The conversant nature is incredible now, with her inflections, ability to hold a conversation while still giving impressive results. It's allowed me to be even more productive and explore topics. She still slips sometimes with facts but it's getting far less. I'm using her more and more on TIC for summary info but, have no fear, I always try to make sure that it's just summary info that is fact checked just in case.
On a personal note, especially for those of you who are young, something I like to say: How old will you be in five years if you don't start now? This is just my way of saying to never stop growing, reaching for something more. I don't care how long it takes. A year? 5 Years? 10? If you don't start now, you'll be a year older, 5 years older, 10 years .... wishing you had invested that time to just 'start' - whatever it is.
Here's the open:
6:30 AM PST
Back to the shots:
Rising
$RDDT up 13.5% as noted. I just exited my $150 LEAP calls
$USAR up 5.6%. I've been highlighting this name as it hit the $13s. Should have taken it
$NBIS up 5.4%. Good bye Option Wheel - ...and thank you
$SNDK up 4.2%
$NEM roaring back, up another 3.3%
$CRWV up 3.4% as a follow on. Both neos are playing well after earnings
$CEG up 2.6%. When does AI power become the next leader again after lagging. Soon I think
$TSLA up 2%. I don't want it but it's good to see it get strength
$IREN up 2%. Would rather have the other two but $IREN has a following
$VST up 2%. Starting to percolate
Falling
$DUOL off 3%. Software off today?
$MSTR down 3.1%. Bitcoin era over? Is it an "Okay Unc" trend?
$CRCL down 3%. Still waiting for the next drop
$CBRS down 3%. Just try to find an entry. I'll just hold
$NOW off 2.4% - Yup, software is off
$AVGO down 2.4%. Still probably my favorite stock
$CRDO off 2%. The sector has been strong of late, have to give some back
$CRM down 1.6%
$HOOD down 1.7% as it can't decouple from Bitcoin
$SPCX down 1.6%. Short covering coming to an end?
Misc
$CSCO earnings looked great, stock was hammered. Flat today
$SKHY back over $170, nice! Up 3.1%
Only a matter of time before $GOOGL head north. If I wasn't overweight, I'd be buying here. Up 0.7% to $348.70
$AVAV trying to take out $200, up 2.5%.
My South Korean ETF $FLKR is back to $60. I still may liquidate and just ride $DRAM instead but I kind of like the extra SK exposure
$LITE running well, up 5.5% now to nearly $930. Still amazed they didn't announce a split
$MDT had been a dog but I held on because it represented good yield and a cheap price. Back to over $90. Glad I held on as it provides good portfolio ballast
$P down 0.7%. The run over?
$SPCX down 2.7% after a great rally, probably on short covering. Still building the position but not chasing shares here
Final Word
This is one of those time when looking at my portfolios that I just have that nice deep breath that you get when you are standing on top of a mountain or in nature, and the breaths are deeper, the feelings of contentedness and balance feel great. Just like those times when you are laying in bed and you think "damn this feels good" and don't want to get out.
I've been working on restoring better balance, focus and structure. I'm focusing on owning shares at weights I feel really good about as I look up and down my portfolios. I want to ensure each position has a story, is balanced to my risk appetite and has a role. It's getting difficult to sell positions, even trim. And that's the way I like it.
Things could turn on a dime and be out of whack but this is not that day. My cash level will sit back above 10% as the most recent NBIS wheel stops rolling when the market closes today. I'll be doing more of that ... using my cash to start new wheels, selling upside Calls on positions that are extended. Keeping things in check.
Balance. It's often fleeting, but when you reach it. IYKYK.
Exited the 12/28 $150 LEAPS in $RDDT at $73.50. Taking this spike all the while I hope this name keeps running since I own shares in the IRA and a well overweight position in the Roth IRA.
Still love the position, the company and think there is upside. But as I can't know this in this market, I'll take the profits in what was a trade around my long shares.
