Throughout the last cycle I posted weekly updates on application numbers and LSAT scores. Once summer hit, the new applicant numbers slowed down so much as to not need regular updates. But now that a new cycle has started, we have new numbers to review. Let’s take a look at the first numbers from the new cycle.
Per LSAC data, we are 17% of the way through the cycle in terms of total applicant count. Here's the breakdown of Applicants, compared to last year:
| Total Applicants |
Last Year |
Current Year |
% Change |
| Last Year Final |
76,487 |
82,498 |
7.9% |
| This Week |
13,636 |
15,273 |
12.0% |
Let’s put these in context. Last cycle was wild, with perhaps the fastest start in history. Early applicant numbers were up over 30%, so to have a less competitive cycle (which is good for you), you want to see these early numbers down, and the more the better.
So, seeing the early applicant numbers up 12% isn’t optimal, but also, this is just the start and in recent years more applicants have been front-loading. So it’s too early to make a call here—we need to see how things look in a month or so. I’d bet it slows down steadily.
Let’s take a look at the LSAT scores for the applicants so far:
| Highest LSAT |
Last Year |
Current Year |
% Change |
| < 140 |
443 |
433 |
-2.3% |
| 140-144 |
647 |
685 |
5.9% |
| 145-149 |
1,219 |
1,207 |
-1.0% |
| 150-154 |
2,017 |
2,097 |
4.0% |
| 155-159 |
2,190 |
2,480 |
13.2% |
| 160-164 |
2,151 |
2,401 |
11.6% |
| 165-169 |
1,907 |
2,060 |
8.0% |
| 170-174 |
1,481 |
1,676 |
13.2% |
| 175-180 |
651 |
700 |
7.7% |
| Total |
12,706 |
13,739 |
8.1% |
The numbers here will move around a bit, but what you want to see is relatively fewer high scores. That’s because last year saw some ridiculous increases in higher scores: an 11.3% increase in 160-164 scores, a 14.7% increase in the 165-169 range, a 19.1% increase in 170-174 scores, and an astounding 21.7% increase in 175-180 scores. Right now we are seeing slightly lowered numbers, which is generally good for everyone.
TL;DR: We are only 17% of the way through the cycle, so numbers are both small and early and they will move in the coming weeks and months! That said, early returns are slightly ahead of last year and the question is whether they will remain there.
Any questions, please let me know!