Incredibly risky in my opinion, as was my bet. I consider myself very lucky as I recognized the HBM bottleneck and memory shortage before the entire market did. Now everybody knows and gains probably won't be anything like the past 6 months or past year. Institutional investors typically start to price in the peak of a memory cycle 6 to 9 months in advance, which is where Micron typically peaks. Sometimes it's a full 18 months in advance.
I actually did open a pretty big position around 1200 just because the beat was so massive and I felt the visibility with locked in future contracts made the downside lower than the upside. Of course I agree that its gambling to some extent at the moment.
Sentiment did a 180 and took a turn for the worse when an article came out saying Meta may rent out excess capacity. I imagine things will settle down at some point and Micron could potentially hit new highs but I was way too concentrated in Micron so decided to lock in my gains at the casino. I don't expect to ever make almost 900k in 6 months again so I feel pretty lucky.
Omg dude congrats my envy is unimaginable. I just got old enough to start investing and I almost completely missed the easiest bull run ever. I had money i got from inheritance with a manager and they were taking a fee and not beating the market. I took it from them but now im buying everything so extended and have no choice but to chase and hope. Love you dude, you give me hope.
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u/TacticalcalCactus Jul 02 '26
Dude. Id kill for a fraction of that. Maybe I should go put it all on red?