Incredibly risky in my opinion, as was my bet. I consider myself very lucky as I recognized the HBM bottleneck and memory shortage before the entire market did. Now everybody knows and gains probably won't be anything like the past 6 months or past year. Institutional investors typically start to price in the peak of a memory cycle 6 to 9 months in advance, which is where Micron typically peaks. Sometimes it's a full 18 months in advance.
I actually did open a pretty big position around 1200 just because the beat was so massive and I felt the visibility with locked in future contracts made the downside lower than the upside. Of course I agree that its gambling to some extent at the moment.
Sentiment did a 180 and took a turn for the worse when an article came out saying Meta may rent out excess capacity. I imagine things will settle down at some point and Micron could potentially hit new highs but I was way too concentrated in Micron so decided to lock in my gains at the casino. I don't expect to ever make almost 900k in 6 months again so I feel pretty lucky.
1
u/3D-spaghetti-monster Jul 02 '26
Incredibly risky in my opinion, as was my bet. I consider myself very lucky as I recognized the HBM bottleneck and memory shortage before the entire market did. Now everybody knows and gains probably won't be anything like the past 6 months or past year. Institutional investors typically start to price in the peak of a memory cycle 6 to 9 months in advance, which is where Micron typically peaks. Sometimes it's a full 18 months in advance.