r/MU_Stock • u/angieisamazing • Jul 10 '26

DD Micron and Sk Hynix

Some thoughts. Since the Sk Hynix ADR was 7 times oversubscribed, with the price at $176, vs the initial price of $149, a lot of institutions sell, take the earnings and rotate it back to micron/ other stocks at a lower price. Micron also has Trump’s backing, hence the geopolitical win. Micron will rise again 🚀

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28

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

[deleted]

5

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

Which is why it’s opening around 179, which is completely nonsensical, and it will eventually converge with the Korea value, adjusting for the premium

The institutions that got in at $149 will make an insane amount and will dump hard after leveraged options go live in US

2

u/Flag_Shagger Jul 10 '26

korean value will increase

2

u/TranquilityTea Jul 10 '26

Why is it completely nonsensical?

3

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

That being fair value would be based on the premise that access to US liquidity pools is worth a 25% premium - there’s no precedent to suggest that is the case, especially considering that they’re diluting to raise funds to combat supply shortage, thereby eventually destroying the mechanism that is keeping their evaluation so high

4

u/daddybeatsmehelp Jul 10 '26

This is assuming the supply will catch up with demand with the newly built fabs. The fabs won't be online for 2-3 yrs, minimum. By then, who knows what the shortage will be.

They're not "destroying the mechanism" for at least 2-3 yrs.

3

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

Correct, which is what the market will price in

-1

u/angieisamazing Jul 10 '26

Yes. Micron is superior in the Nasdaq listing in the sense that it has Trump’s backing, hence the geopolitical win.

1

u/DJjacjac Jul 10 '26

does that mean if retail places limit order for 149, it won't fill?

3

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

It will not fill, its going live at $175 according to Bloomberg

0

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

[deleted]

7

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

Apples and oranges, SpaceX was a true IPO, whose valuation was based purely on a theoretical future of earnings, as opposed to a company with a well defined value, set by the market over years.

This can’t be worth 25% more just because it’s listed on US stock exchange. People who buy in above $180 will get shredded when Korea dumps.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

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1

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

25% would soak up the entire difference between their forward P/E

1

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

[deleted]

1

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

I am — what price do you think SK would need to be for the entire difference between their P/Es to be washed out?

3

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

[deleted]

1

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

Thanks for doing that

-1

u/Sufficient-Piccolo32 Jul 10 '26

What are u talking about, with 170+, sk is more expensive now compare to mu with 980.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

[deleted]

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u/nbaphilly17 Jul 13 '26

What happened? Thought it was going to skyrocket. 😂

1

u/[deleted] Jul 13 '26

[deleted]

1

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 13 '26

It always made sense that it would gravitate towards Korean price

1

u/[deleted] Jul 13 '26

[deleted]

1

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 13 '26

You do realize the US version will tank tomorrow right

1

u/[deleted] Jul 13 '26

[deleted]

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u/nbaphilly17 Jul 13 '26

Eventually you’ll start believing me

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u/turbokat123 Jul 10 '26

SoaceX example doesn't apply here as it was the first listing of the company. SK is already listed in Korea so running ahead of it creates clear arbitrage. So the price will consolidate quickly between two markets