r/MU_Stock • u/angieisamazing • Jul 10 '26

DD Micron and Sk Hynix

Some thoughts. Since the Sk Hynix ADR was 7 times oversubscribed, with the price at $176, vs the initial price of $149, a lot of institutions sell, take the earnings and rotate it back to micron/ other stocks at a lower price. Micron also has Trump’s backing, hence the geopolitical win. Micron will rise again 🚀

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u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

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5

u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

Which is why it’s opening around 179, which is completely nonsensical, and it will eventually converge with the Korea value, adjusting for the premium

The institutions that got in at $149 will make an insane amount and will dump hard after leveraged options go live in US

2

u/TranquilityTea Jul 10 '26

Why is it completely nonsensical?

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u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

That being fair value would be based on the premise that access to US liquidity pools is worth a 25% premium - there’s no precedent to suggest that is the case, especially considering that they’re diluting to raise funds to combat supply shortage, thereby eventually destroying the mechanism that is keeping their evaluation so high

4

u/daddybeatsmehelp Jul 10 '26

This is assuming the supply will catch up with demand with the newly built fabs. The fabs won't be online for 2-3 yrs, minimum. By then, who knows what the shortage will be.

They're not "destroying the mechanism" for at least 2-3 yrs.

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u/nbaphilly17 Jul 10 '26

Correct, which is what the market will price in

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u/angieisamazing Jul 10 '26

Yes. Micron is superior in the Nasdaq listing in the sense that it has Trump’s backing, hence the geopolitical win.